No one complained about the lack of evidence for 20-second hand-washing. So why did we treat face masks differently?
Joe Rogan With Randall Carlson (2015)
A three hour break from the news: Randall Carlson is a proponent of the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis, and has theorized about the extinction of historical advanced human civilizations.
Y2Kyoto: Still On Flood Watch
Antarctic sea ice extent bang on 1981-2010 avg. pic.twitter.com/ovWkrmNySH
— DavidIBirch 🇬🇧 (@dbirch214) April 7, 2020
The Sound Of Settled Science
Soon, we’ll be walking with dinosaurs;
Paleontologists have unearthed the oldest fossil belonging to the hominin species Homo erectus.
The 2 million-year-old fossil skull, excavated over a five-year period in South Africa, suggests the early human relative emerged between 100,000 and 200,000 years earlier than previously thought.
Bats, Conspiracy Hypothesis and What The Cat Dragged In
A pretty good podcast (without a lot of politics) covering many of the topics of the day from the perspective of evolutionary biologists.
Drunk Monkeys, Soap Operas, And Tailgating
What would we do without research?
On a steamy summer day inside the lecture auditorium of the storied National Institutes of Health headquarters, Dr. Michael Bracken delivered a stark message to an audience that dedicated its life, and owed its living, to medical research.
As much as 87.5% of biomedical research is wasted or inefficient, the respected Yale University epidemiologist declared in a sobering assessment for a federal research agency that spends about $40 billion a year on medical studies.
He backed his staggering statistic with these additional stats: 50 out of every 100 medical studies fail to produce published findings, and half of those that do publish have serious design flaws. And those that aren’t flawed and manage to publish are often needlessly redundant.
Temperature.Global
This is interesting.
Temperature.Global calculates the current global temperature of the Earth. It uses unadjusted surface temperatures. The current temperature is the 12M average mean surface temperature over the last 12 months compared against the 30 year mean. New observations are entered each minute and the site is updated accordingly. This site was created by professional meteorologists and climatologists with over 25 years experience in surface weather observations.
RIP Freeman Dyson
What Would We Do Without Peer Review?
Online sleuths have discovered what they suspect is a paper mill that has produced more than 400 scientific papers with potentially fabricated images. Some journals are now investigating the papers.
Elisabeth Bik, a microbiologist–turned–research integrity expert based in San Francisco, along with other “forensic detectives,” identified the potentially problematic papers, which they think came from a single source. They say the papers contain western blot images—used in molecular biology to visualize the presence of proteins—that contain remarkably similar background patterns and unusually neat bands lacking smears, stains, or dots, which often appear in such images.
“We think that these western blots are not real,” says Bik, who wrote about the case on her blog on 21 February. “Most of them have a very similar layout so we realized these are all coming from the same stable.”
More detail on this thread.
What Would We Do Without Peer Review?
“The Distributed Idea Suppression Complex”. For those of us who enjoy long form podcasts (and have a little knowledge of genetics) this is a fascinating story. Eric Weinstein can be a pompous asshole, but if you’re interested in stories of scientific malfeasance and the implications of “broken” mice, stick with it. The real meat begins at about 45 minutes in.
Besides, I have lots on my plate and it may be all you get today.
Climategate 2020: The Blacklist
A climate advocacy group called Skeptical Science hosts a list of academics that it has labeled “climate misinformers.” The list includes 17 academics and is intended as a blacklist. We know of this intent because one of the principals of Skeptical Science, a blogger named Dana Nuccitelli, said so last Friday, writing of one academic on their list, “if you look at the statements we cataloged and debunked on her [Skeptical Science] page, it should make her unhirable in academia.”
That so-called “unhirable” academic is Professor Judy Curry, formerly the chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, and a Fellow of both the American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society. By any conventional academic metric, Curry has compiled an impressive record over many decades. The idea that she would be unhirable would seem laughable.
But there is nothing funny about Skeptical Science. Today, Curry should be a senior statesperson in the atmospheric sciences community. Instead, she is out of academia. She attributes that, at least in part, to being placed on the Skeptical Science blacklist and its use, as expressed by Nuccitelli, to make her “unhirable.”
I asked Professor Curry about this situation. She explained, “In 2012 I was informed by my Dean that the administration wanted me to step down as Chair. While there were several reasons for this, one obvious reason was extreme displeasure by several activist climate scientists who had a very direct pipeline to the Dean.”
So Curry stepped down and started looking for administrative positions at other universities, “At the time, I was getting numerous inquiries from academic headhunters encouraging me to apply for major administration positions, ranging from Dean to Vice Chancellor for Research. I applied for several of these, and actually interviewed for two of them. I did not make it to the final short list.”
Closer to home: The City of Regina is axing self-described “sensible environmentalist” Patrick Moore from its sustainability conference this spring.
Twitter jail is filling up with climate scientists. Another one was just put into the slammer (Account Suspended). Probably an innocent mistake but never know with some people.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) February 10, 2020
Not an innocent mistake. Did you think they’d stop at gender “science”?
The Sound Of Settled Science
Our best model of particle physics is bursting at the seams as it struggles to contain all the weirdness in the universe. Now, it seems more likely than ever that it might pop, thanks to a series of strange events in Antarctica. .
The death of this reigning physics paradigm, the Standard Model, has been predicted for decades. There are hints of its problems in the physics we already have. Strange results from laboratory experiments suggest flickers of ghostly new species of neutrinos beyond the three described in the Standard Model. And the universe seems full of dark matter that no particle in the Standard Model can explain.
But recent tantalizing evidence might one day tie those vague strands of data together: Three times since 2016, ultra-high-energy particles have blasted up through the ice of Antarctica, setting off detectors in the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) experiment, a machine dangling from a NASA balloon far above the frozen surface.
The Sound Of Settled Science
After cancer-prevention surgeries, women learn BRCA gene test may have been wrong
The Sound Of Settled Science
The Sound Of Settled Science
Geologists at Rice University have uncovered evidence that suggests Earth’s spin axis was in a different spot millions of years ago, a phenomenon called “true polar wander.” The change, which occurred sometime in the past 12 million years, would have shifted Greenland further up into the Arctic Circle – which may have contributed to the onset of the last major Ice Age, 3.2 million years ago.
The Sound Of Settled Science
Three months after his bone marrow transplant, Chris Long of Reno, Nev., learned that the DNA in his blood had changed. It had all been replaced by the DNA of his donor, a German man he had exchanged just a handful of messages with.
He’d been encouraged to test his blood by a colleague at the Sheriff’s Office, where he worked. She had an inkling this might happen. It’s the goal of the procedure, after all: Weak blood is replaced by healthy blood, and with it, the DNA it contains.
But four years after his lifesaving procedure, it was not only Mr. Long’s blood that was affected. Swabs of his lips and cheeks contained his DNA — but also that of his donor. Even more surprising to Mr. Long and other colleagues at the crime lab, all of the DNA in his semen belonged to his donor. “I thought that it was pretty incredible that I can disappear and someone else can appear,” he said.
Mr. Long had become a chimera, the technical term for the rare person with two sets of DNA. The word takes its name from a fire-breathing creature in Greek mythology composed of lion, goat and serpent parts. Doctors and forensic scientists have long known that certain medical procedures turn people into chimeras, but where exactly a donor’s DNA shows up — beyond blood — has rarely been studied with criminal applications in mind.
[…]
If another patient responded similarly to a transplant and that person went on to commit a crime, it could mislead investigators, said Brittney Chilton, a criminalist at the Sheriff’s Office forensic science division.
And it has misled them, Ms. Chilton learned once she began to research chimerism. In 2004, investigators in Alaska uploaded a DNA profile extracted from semen to a criminal DNA database. It matched a potential suspect. But there was a problem: The man had been in prison at the time of the assault. It turned out that he had received a bone marrow transplant. The donor, his brother, was eventually convicted.
Abirami Chidambaram, who presented the Alaska case in 2005, when she worked for the Alaska State Scientific Crime Detection Laboratory in Anchorage, said she had heard about another disconcerting scenario since then. It involved police investigators who were skeptical of a sexual assault victim’s account because she said there had been one attacker, though DNA analysis showed two. Eventually the police determined that the second profile had come from her bone marrow donor.
Similar scenarios could also create confusion around a victim’s identity — and in fact it has, said Yongbin Eom, a visiting research scholar at the University of North Texas Center for Human Identification. In 2008, he was trying to identify the victim of a traffic accident for the National Forensic Service in Seoul, South Korea. Blood showed that the individual was female. But the body appeared to be male, which was confirmed by DNA in a kidney, but not in the spleen or the lung, which contained male and female DNA. Eventually, he figured out that the victim had received a bone marrow transplant from his daughter.
But don’t worry. The same experts who assured this could never happen have also declared that the phenomenon is harmless.
From the comments: Oh great, we’re going to have to learn yet another set of pronouns.
What Would We Do Without Peer Review?
The Sound Of Settled Science
Mapping the Medieval Warm Period;
About 1000 years ago, large parts of the world experienced a prominent warm phase which in many cases reached a similar temperature level as today or even exceeded present-day warmth. While this Medieval Warm Period (MWP) has been documented in numerous case studies from around the globe, climate models still fail to reproduce this historical warm phase. The problem is openly conceded in the most recent IPCC report from 2013 (AR5, Working Group 1) where in chapter 5.3.5. the IPCC scientists admit […]
Surprisingly, the media have not picked up on this important issue. Maybe because the information is hidden in small print on page 415 of the voluminous report and omitted in the Summary for Policy Makers? The implications of the mismatch of model vs. reality may be serious: It is common practice in all fields of modeling to test models first on existing data, i.e. a known development, before using them as predictive tools. Models first have to pass the ‚hind cast‘ or ‚history match‘ before they qualify to be used for predictions. According to the IPCC, the climate models seem to have failed this test, appear to be on the road without driving license – so to speak – and are therefore unfit for future climate predictions.
Climategate: Ten Years On
Last week, an email from Rob Bradley reminded me of my previous blog post The legacy of Climategate: 5 years later. That post was the last in a sequence of posts at Climate Etc. since 2010 on Climategate; for the entire group of posts, see [link] Rereading these was quite a blast from the past.
While I still mention Climategate in interviews, the general reaction I get is ‘yawn . . . old hat . . . so 2010 . . . nothingburger . . . the scientists were all exonerated . . . the science has proven to be robust.’ I hadn’t even thought of a ’10 years later’ post until Rob Bradley’s email.
Now I see that, at least in the UK, the 10 year anniversary looks to be rather a big deal. Already we are seeing some analyses published in the mainstream media…
It’s excellent. Grab a coffee.
Y2Kyoto: The Planet Has A Fever
It’s not the lowest elevation on the planet but -35C at 50deg latitude in mid November. Getting rediculous and no news coverage. pic.twitter.com/HTKpu1yVNY
— Syn Kronos (@KronosSyn) November 16, 2019
