Iraq The Model’s Mohammed Fadhil has a piece in the WSJ OpinionJournal that links the antagonists in Lebanon to those in Iraq;

In both cases we see a weak government suffering to control a powerful militia that is challenging the will of the rest of the country and engaging in a proxy war making the people suffer the results of regional conflicts that in no way can benefit their country.
The other reason why I’m closely following this ongoing crisis is that the powers involved in this conflict between Lebanon and Israel are closely connected to the powers fighting in Iraq and we here believe that the battle over there will have an impact on the situation here in one way or another.
[…]
This comes from the nature of strategy adopted by the fighting powers and here I’m talking about the Arabic/Islamic component whose strategy relies on keeping a crisis open and always on reaching half-solutions to enable the leaderships to retain their positions–of course this also means keeping the countries of the region behind of the rest of the world and I see the same strategy being employed this time.
Iran proved that it’s able to drag the region into a state of chaos by maneuvering its tools in Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and the militias in Iraq. Iran knows that such a conflict directed by militias that blend with civilians will lead to long-lasting chaos and represents a half-solution that debilitates the other powers and at the same time it’s not a costly tactic for Iran! One hundred million dollars in the hands of gangs is enough to cause a lot of destruction that cannot be cured by billions in reconstruction, and it always costs less to destroy than to build.
The key point in this strategy is to keep the half-solution alive. This method proved successful in keeping the despotic regimes in power for decades and these regimes think this strategy is still valid. What makes them this way is their interpretation of international comments which came almost exactly as they always do; calls for restraint and urging a cease-fire which they (Iran and her allies) think will mean eventually going back to negotiations which they know very well how to keep moving in an empty circle.

And there’s this;

This war was inevitable as the Lebanese government couldn’t bring Hezbollah within its authority and make it work for the interests of Lebanon. Similarly leader of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas has been unable to rein in the Hamas Movement.
Unfortunately we must admit that in such a war the only way to get rid of these irregular phenomena is what Israel is doing. The operations of Israel in Gaza and Lebanon are in the interest of people of Arab countries and the international community.

… from Ahmed Al-Jarallah, Editor-in-Chief of the Arab Times (Kuwait)
David Warren believes Israel is determined not to repeat the old “half-solution” mistakes.
And more from NRO’s Rich Lowry on theories making the rounds.

If the Israelis let this opportunity pass without dealing a fatal blow to Hezbollah (or come so close as to make them weak enough to be dealt with by the Lebanese army…though even that is problematic since some estimates/analysis has that army heavily – maybe up to 35% of it – infiltrated by Hezbollah and/or its sympathizers), they may never get another…at least not prior to the Iranians having their nukes online.

That, I believe, about sums it up.

Hezbollah’s reluctant human shields (via Jeff);

Roadblocks have been set up outside some of the villages to prevent residents from leaving, while in other villages Hizbullah is preventing UN representatives from entering, who are trying to help residents leave. In two villages, exchanges of fire between residents and Hizbullah have broken out.

Meanwhile, in Canada, criticism of the Harper government’s sole-source contract to purchase heavy-lift air transport for the Canadian Forces has been replaced by criticism of the Harper government’s efforts in extracting thousands of Canadian citizens wanting to leave Lebanon.

Syria is still attempting to supply Hizbullah with missiles;

Although Hizbullah has suffered a harsh blow from Israeli air force strikes which took out a good percentage of their available weapons, Syria was continuing to smuggle arms into Lebanon to rearm the group, IDF Operations Branch Head Major General Gadi Eisenkot said during a press briefing Tuesday.
Thus far, the IAF managed to intercept a number of trucks transporting rockets from Syria to Hizbullah, including trucks laden with the 220mm-diameter rockets with warheads like the one that hit the Haifa train depot Monday, claiming eight lives. Maj.-Gen. Eisenkot said he would be very surprised if official elements in Syria were unaware of these transports.
“These are rockets that belong to the Syrian army. You can’t find them in the Damascus market, and the Syrian government is responsible for this smuggling,” Eisenkot said, but stressed, “We are not operating against Syria or the Lebanese army.”
During the briefing, Maj.-Gen. Eisenkot said the IDF has hit over 1,000 targets, 180 of them Katyusha and rocket storage sites and 350 launch sites. Over 250 missile strikes were carried out with the aim of blocking traffic arteries, and 200 buildings used by Hizbullah were hit. According to Eisenkot, Israel’s offensive would continue without time limitations.

Via Pajamas Media, where the updates continue to roll in.
Plus, a report in The Australian that suggests Hezbollah is hurting badly.

The blogosphere as expected, has been busy gathering reports. I won’t try to duplicate what’s already been done. Lots of links to reaction, analysis, media updates and on-the-scenel accounts up at Instapundit, Pajamas Media, Counterterrorism Blog, plus this on-the-scene report from a WSJ reporter.
You’re free to post any other links you may find in the comments.

Ed Morrissey quotes a Barry Rubin piece that “attempts to explain to Westerners the reasons why our efforts to deal with the Palestinians on a rational basis have no hope of success”. His own commentary is just as good.

When Ehud Barak offered Yasser Arafat 95% of the territory he demanded for a Palestinian state, Western leaders thought that Bill Clinton achieved a major breakthrough. Clinton could not be faulted for thinking so; a string of American presidents had pressed Israel into returning the West Bank and Gaza in exchange for peace, and Clinton had finally succeeded in making it happen.
Of course, Arafat turned it down. Why? Because the deal gave him what he demanded, but not what he wanted. His answer to the Israeli offer came in the form of two intifadas, while Europe continued to castigate the Israelis for their continuing oppression of the Palestinians who terrorized them.
Last year, Ariel Sharon decided to give back Gaza unilaterally. The disengagement gave the Palestinians their own territory to govern, and it solved a tough military problem for the IDF in protecting the few thousand settlers among over a million Palestinians. One would have expected the Palestinians to celebrate and establish their own governance of the territory, especially since the Israelis gave back all of it. What happened? They complained that the Israelis left without negotiating for Gaza’s return, and then paid them back by using Gaza as a launching pad for hundreds of rocket strikes. In the meantime, the Palestinians did nothing to maintain civil control of Gaza.
They do not want peace. They want Israel. Nothing short of that will satisfy the Palestinians, and all of the talk in the world will do not one whit of good until they understand that we will not allow them to destroy Israel, and of course neither will the Israelis.

Read it all.

Michael McCullough has a post detailing the potential consequences should a plot to bomb the Holland tunnel come to fruition. They’re not insignificant;

The Democrats and the media are already dismissing the notion that flooding tunnels would only fill the tunnels with water and cause no additional damage. A quick flooding of water into the tunnel could very well cause it to expel water from both ends.
It would also weaken the soil surrounding the tunnel entrances, possibly causing the collapse of buildings. Not only that, but the collapse of only the Holland Tunnel would cause flooding throughout much of lower Manhattan’s subway system and underground tunnels carrying electrical and communication lines.

He includes maps and historical examples. Check it out.

Bill Roggio ;

As the situation in Somalia deteriorates and the al-Qaeda backed Islamic Courts Union (or al-Ittihad Mahakem al-Islamiya) consolidates power in the capital city of Mogadishu, the Ethiopian military has crossed the border into Somalia. Approximately 200-300 Ethiopian troops, about two companies including two armored platoons, have pushed upwards to 100 miles into Somali territory. It is unclear if their goal is to secure the lawless border, make a land grab or engage the militias of the Islamic Courts. The Ethiopian government denies reports its military has crossed the Somali border.
[…]
In 2002, a confidential report indicated Somalia contained 17 known operational terrorist training camps (see attached map). The environment in Somalia is said to compare to that of Afghanistan during the heyday of the Taliban. Terrorists from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Chechnya, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula are said to be flocking into Somalia to staff the camps or enter training. Camps are said to be training recruits to employ improvised explosive devices (roadside bombs or IEDs) to counter the expected Ethiopian armor. The Islamic Courts are also scouring the Communist-era weapons caches for anti-aircraft weapons, small arms, and explosives.

It’s looking more like pre-911 Afghanistan every day. I’m sure it’s Bush’s fault.

Arthur Chrenkoff via Instapundit, where there’s more;

[N]otice the moving goal-posts – hasn’t the media been telling us in the past that “at the heart of the insurgency” there are the native Sunni nationalists who want the foreign occupiers out of the country, and that “the radical Islamists, many of them foreign terrorists” are merely a marginal phenomenon? Is that because there’s a chance that the new strategy of reconciliation will actually work to diminish the insurgency, so the Bush Administration and the Iraqi government have to be set up for failure according to a new and more demanding (if not an impossible) standard? On the positive side, it’s good to see that the BBC finally acknowledges that at least some of our enemies want to create “a new Islamic empire”.

Thoughts on the Maliki reconciliation plan at Iraq The Model;

No legitimacy for outlaw militants, period.

Comments open for on-topic discussion and related links.

Because every terrorist is some mother’s son.

The New Al Qaeda;

The report, authored by Stratfor’s Fred Burton, warns of the emergence of a “grassroots jihadist network that both exists in, and has the ability to strike in multiple countries — without support or oversight from the central al Qaeda leadership.” In other words, after years of dodging in and out of the Tora Bora caves, Osama bin Laden has become obsolete. Where once bin Laden ran al Qaeda like some Don Corleone wannabe, and his hand-picked apprentices were trained in Bin Laden’s Afghan Training Camp and Spa, the new al Qaeda is more akin to the leaderless anarchist groups that blew onto the international scene in the late 19th century. It not only lacks Osama’s quiet wisdom and guiding hand, but is younger, dumber, and motivated by factors quite distinct from those of its predecessor.
[…]
The Canada 17’s pre-empted attacks would have featured this new model. Here was a well-connected cell, part of an international network with links to jihadists in the U.S. and Britain. Significantly, the new al Qaeda sympathizers have moved their base of operations to Canada, which has more liberal immigration and asylum policies than the U.S. (if such is possible), and avoids the interference of that meddlesome Patriot Act.
The new al Qaeda, however, has an agenda far different from that of its predecessors, who were radicalized while beating up on the Red Army in Afghanistan, and sought nothing less than the restoration of the Islamic Caliphate. The new jihadist couldn’t care less about the Caliphate, and has as his motivation anger over the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and, of course, the Israel-Palestinian dispute.

h/t Belmont Club

Exerpts of a new book by Ron Suskind reveal that;

Al-Qaeda terrorists came within 45 days of attacking the New York subway system with a lethal gas similar to that used in Nazi death camps. They were stopped not by any intelligence breakthrough, but by an order from Osama bin Laden’s deputy, Ayman Zawahiri. And the U.S. learned of the plot from a CIA mole inside al-Qaeda.
[…]
U.S. intelligence got its first inkling of the plot from the contents of a laptop computer belonging to a Bahraini jihadist captured in Saudi Arabia early in 2003. It contained plans for a gas-dispersal system dubbed “the mubtakkar” (Arabic for inventive). Fearing that al-Qaeda’s engineers had achieved the holy grail of terror R&D — a device to effectively distribute hydrogen-cyanide gas, which is deadly when inhaled — the CIA immediately set about building a prototype based on the captured design, which comprised two separate chambers for sodium cyanide and a stable source of hydrogen, such as hydrochloric acid. A seal between the two could be broken by a remote trigger, producing the gas for dispersal. The prototype confirmed their worst fears: “In the world of terrorist weaponry,” writes Suskind, “this was the equivalent of splitting the atom. Obtain a few widely available chemicals, and you could construct it with a trip to Home Depot – and then kill everyone in the store.”
The device was shown to President Bush and Vice President Cheney the following morning, prompting the President to order that alerts be sent through all levels of the U.S. government. Easily constructed and concealed, mass casualties were inevitable if it could be triggered in any enclosed public space.

Via Drudge.

An internal planning document from Al Qaeda in Iraq, discovered after the raid on Al Zarqawi’s safe house.

The situation and conditions of the resistance in Iraq have reached a point that requires a review of the events and of the work being done inside Iraq. Such a study is needed in order to show the best means to accomplish the required goals, especially that the forces of the National Guard have succeeded in forming an enormous shield protecting the American forces and have reduced substantially the losses that were solely suffered by the American forces. This is in addition to the role, played by the Shi’a (the leadership and masses) by supporting the occupation, working to defeat the resistance and by informing on its elements.
As an overall picture, time has been an element in affecting negatively the forces of the occupying countries, due to the losses they sustain economically in human lives, which are increasing with time. However, here in Iraq, time is now beginning to be of service to the American forces and harmful to the resistance for the following reasons:

Their number one strategy:

1. To improve the image of the resistance in society, increase the number of supporters who are refusing occupation and show the clash of interest between society and the occupation and its collaborators. To use the media for spreading an effective and creative image of the resistance.”

I guess that’s better described as a “continuing strategy”.
AP;

American and Iraqi forces have carried out 452 raids since last week’s killing of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and 104 insurgents were killed during those actions, the U.S. military said Thursday. […] The raids also resulted in the captures of 759 “anti-Iraqi elements.”

And there’s more here.

h/t Kathy Shaidle
Newsbeat1;

If you click on the video clip at 7:55 mark -. there is a story about those arrested
“He says the Saudis have flooded Canada with free Qur’ans, laced with jihadist commentary.
“In the back of these Qur’ans that are being published in Saudi Arabia, you have basically essays on the need for offensive jihad and the legitimacy of offensive jihad and things like that. Very alarming stuff,” he said.
Amiruddin said many mainstream Muslim organizations in Canada are really part of the problem, standing by as extremist propaganda spreads in the mosques.
He cites the Al-Rahman centre in Mississauga, Ont., which he links to the Al-Maghrib Institute, which runs a popular educational website. It’s nominally run out of Ottawa, but Amiruddin says it’s really a Saudi operation.”

The CBC page referred to is here. As an aside – this is pretty funny – a courtroom artists rendition showing the young offenders from the Broad Strata Gang first presumably drawn – then their “identies” concealed with black boxes.

Yikes.
Language warning, and that’s putting it mildly.
UPDATE. The site has now been pulled down. I downloaded the source code before posting the link, in anticipation that this might happen. No, I’m not going to rehost it, but it’s available if anyone needs it for legitimate purposes. (There’s an older version cached on Google.) As an aside, the writer of this blog refers to him as “Teo”.
Toronto Tory noticed him earlier.

I wonder if Tim Naumetz plans to revisit his Harper=Bush hit piece of May 22;

The SUV surfaced two weeks ago behind the armoured limousine, and a lead car, that ferries Harper about town. The motorcade takes Harper even from his Langevin Building office across Wellington Street to his Centre Block space on Parliament Hill.
The drivers are armed RCMP officers, but the addition of the SUV makes the entire motorcade look like a Secret Service operation.
Bush has had black SUVs in his motorcade for several years.
The 320-horsepower V8 Chevrolet Tahoe now embedded in Harper’s parade is made in the U.S. GM Canada truck plants assemble Silverado pickups.
As has been said of the SUVs in Bush’s procession, the new black wheels add an air of intimidation to Harper’s motorcade.
“It looks like something Darth Vader would be driving,” says Martin. “We’ve got this gas-guzzling behemoth touring around with the prime minister. It looks tough, it looks quasi-military. Is that the kind of image the prime minister wants to project?”

Well, all things considered….

(bumped to June 4 with updates)
This morning the Ottawa Sun is reporting that Parliament was on the hit list

“They were going after institutional targets,” a source said.
Sources said targets included the Parliament Buildings and the CSIS headquarters in Toronto.

The Canadian Islamic Congress is critical – not at the alleged plotters – but that the government hasn’t been “funding research on “home grown” effects of imported extremism”.
(Last week they were celebrating the CUPE boycott of those dirty joos Israel. “Home grown” effects, indeed.)

Rosie Dimanno;

It takes no sophistication to connect non-existent dots, from Mississauga to Afghanistan, from grievances nurtured in the suburbs of Toronto to a so-called global crusade against Islam, as if the West is responsible for the oppression inflicted upon Muslims, in Muslim nations, by Muslim leaders.
It requires, increasingly, little empirical evidence to excuse the radicalism of pupa militants, including those who enjoy the benefits of our own generous, inclusive and hyper-tolerant society. This is the constituency that protects — tacitly encourages — the nihilism of those driven to violent distraction by what they see as endless victimization of their tribe, a purported world-wide Islamaphobia that can only be redressed by random atrocities.
How quickly, do you think, will these arrests — the judicial process only in its infancy — cease to be about them and become primarily about us?

Glenn Reynolds has morning observations on the media spin cycle that began the instant the arrests were announced, including this comment (from one of Roger Simon’s readers);

Just like our own elites: they truly believe that – if not carefully monitored, us People will riot and string up Muslims from every lamp-post at the least provocation. In their view, the Military, especially, is certain to run amuck at any time (thus the obsessing over Abu Ghraib, and now, jumping all over Haditha) – and, of course, probably has, almost continuously, and Rumsfeld, etc has Covered it Up.
And with Bush in power, the Elites are wringing their hands, knowing that the RedNecks are rampant, uncontrolled, willing and able to do ANYTHING!!!!

See also the good news/bad news analysis this morning by Ed Morrissey.

---

June 3 commentary follows
Toronto Sun;

In a stunning development yesterday, police made a sweeping terrorist bust within the GTA and expected to make several more arrests throughout the night.
“The RCMP, CSIS and the Integrated National Security Enforcement Team arrested individuals throughout the GTA today in relation to terrorist-related offences,” confirmed RCMP spokesman Corp. Michele Paradis.
As of about 9 p.m. last night, Paradis also added “there are ongoing arrests.”
Though unconfirmed, sources have told the Sun police arrested a possible home-grown al-Qaeda terrorist cell operating in Toronto that had planned to bomb the subway as early as Monday.

Any guesses at how long it takes the usual suspects to a) downplay the story as much ado about nothing, and/or b) weave it into a conspiracy to turn Canada into Shrubhitler’s police state. Update; It’s already begun.
A news conference will begin shortly.You can listen live at 650 CKOM. On the fly:
– RCMP, along with CSIS and other security partners have arrested 12 adults and 5 young offenders who were planning a series of terrorist attacks on a variety of targets in southern Ontario.
– They’ve been charged under contributing to activity of a terrorist group, commission of firearms and explosives offenses for the benefit of a terrorist group, providing or making available property for the purpose of terrorist activities.
– 3 tons of ammonium nitrate was ordered and delivered. (the 1995 Oklahoma bombing was comleted with only 1 ton of ammonium nitrate)
– they had the capacity and intent to carry out the attacks
– All are Canadian residents from a variety of backgrounds, inspired by Al Qaeda
– Concern about what other groups may be out there, but are satisfied that the threat from this one has been removed.
(A commentor refers to “one brain trust of a reporter” asking a stupid question. Listening just now, about 4 reporters have asked successive questions directly related to the ongoing investigation, despite being told none would be entertained. That’s the beauty of listening to these things live – one gains a first hand appreciation for just how “thick” the news filter is.)
The Toronto Star is now online with a report. Those arrested:

1. Fahim Ahmad, 21, Toronto;
2. Zakaria Amara, 20, Mississauga, Ont.;
3. Asad Ansari, 21, Mississauga;
4. Shareef Abdelhaleen, 30, Mississauga;
5. Qayyum Abdul Jamal, 43, Mississauga;
6. Mohammed Dirie, 22, Kingston, Ont.;
7. Yasim Abdi Mohamed, 24, Kingston;
8. Jahmaal James, 23, Toronto;
9. Amin Mohamed Durrani, 19, Toronto;
10. Steven Vikash Chand alias Abdul Shakur, 25, Toronto;
11. Ahmad Mustafa Ghany, 21, Mississauga;
12. Saad Khalid, 19, of Eclipse Avenue, Mississauga.

(What was that quote from the news conference about the individuals not reflecting on any one community?) – here it is: “This operation does not reflect badly on any ethno-cultural group in Canada”.
FLASHBACK: 2005 – Weapons arrests at border – Who Are Dirie and Mohamed?
Considerable blogosphere coverage on this story;
Stephen Taylor has lots more, including a chilling poem.
Stop The ACLU on the internet angle. Pajamas Media has a big roundup. So does Hot Air here and here;
The Muslim Canadian Congress reaction is predictable.
Report from the courthouse.

“This operation does not reflect badly on any ethno-cultural group in Canada”.
COMMENTS POLICY REMINDER – The comments are for just that – comments and reaction. This is not a chatboard. Stay on topic, and if you wish to engage in lengthy back and forth debate with others, take it to email.