Iraq The Model’s Mohammed Fadhil has a piece in the WSJ OpinionJournal that links the antagonists in Lebanon to those in Iraq;
In both cases we see a weak government suffering to control a powerful militia that is challenging the will of the rest of the country and engaging in a proxy war making the people suffer the results of regional conflicts that in no way can benefit their country.
The other reason why I’m closely following this ongoing crisis is that the powers involved in this conflict between Lebanon and Israel are closely connected to the powers fighting in Iraq and we here believe that the battle over there will have an impact on the situation here in one way or another.
[…]
This comes from the nature of strategy adopted by the fighting powers and here I’m talking about the Arabic/Islamic component whose strategy relies on keeping a crisis open and always on reaching half-solutions to enable the leaderships to retain their positions–of course this also means keeping the countries of the region behind of the rest of the world and I see the same strategy being employed this time.
Iran proved that it’s able to drag the region into a state of chaos by maneuvering its tools in Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and the militias in Iraq. Iran knows that such a conflict directed by militias that blend with civilians will lead to long-lasting chaos and represents a half-solution that debilitates the other powers and at the same time it’s not a costly tactic for Iran! One hundred million dollars in the hands of gangs is enough to cause a lot of destruction that cannot be cured by billions in reconstruction, and it always costs less to destroy than to build.
The key point in this strategy is to keep the half-solution alive. This method proved successful in keeping the despotic regimes in power for decades and these regimes think this strategy is still valid. What makes them this way is their interpretation of international comments which came almost exactly as they always do; calls for restraint and urging a cease-fire which they (Iran and her allies) think will mean eventually going back to negotiations which they know very well how to keep moving in an empty circle.
And there’s this;
This war was inevitable as the Lebanese government couldn’t bring Hezbollah within its authority and make it work for the interests of Lebanon. Similarly leader of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas has been unable to rein in the Hamas Movement.
Unfortunately we must admit that in such a war the only way to get rid of these irregular phenomena is what Israel is doing. The operations of Israel in Gaza and Lebanon are in the interest of people of Arab countries and the international community.
… from Ahmed Al-Jarallah, Editor-in-Chief of the Arab Times (Kuwait)
David Warren believes Israel is determined not to repeat the old “half-solution” mistakes.
And more from NRO’s Rich Lowry on theories making the rounds.
If the Israelis let this opportunity pass without dealing a fatal blow to Hezbollah (or come so close as to make them weak enough to be dealt with by the Lebanese army…though even that is problematic since some estimates/analysis has that army heavily – maybe up to 35% of it – infiltrated by Hezbollah and/or its sympathizers), they may never get another…at least not prior to the Iranians having their nukes online.
That, I believe, about sums it up.
Whoa – two clear-headed pieces from Arabs? What’s next – honest Liberals?
Hezbollah is going down for the count. They have politically isolated themselves. Any help from Syria or Iran would bring overwhelming response from the US.
The US politically and Israel militarily are flushing the pheasantasies of ‘wiping Israel of the map’ from the “Bush”. The moderate Arab nations realize this, and are standing by to watch the fireworks.
Left wing socialist media pundit types can wail all they want, but they will have to do it in Jerusalem on the Wailing Wall. Ehud Olmert has got it right; the ‘wipe Israel off the map’ proposition is now in ‘end game’ status.
Hezbollah is being systematically defanged. The venom of rocketry is being subjected to the antidote of seek and destroy. Hezbollah ‘leadership’ has only itself to blame.
It’s the particular mix of loyalties which is queering the plan for Hezbollah.
Yes, they’re all Muslims but Hezbollah are Shiite Arabs: not calculated to gain too much sympathy from Sunni Arabs.
Yes, they’re all Muslims but Hezbollah is Iranian backed and the Iranians are NOT Arabs: not calculated to gain too much sympathy from Arabs.
Islamist extremism is not quite as monolithic as it might seem.
It’s an excellent analysis.
Iran is behind the insurgency in Iraq (aided by Syria); and behind this current Israeli-Lebanon war. Iran is using both countries – Iraq and Lebanon – to prevent democracy from moving into the area and is attempting to set itself up as the Emperor of the ME. SA doesn’t like that. Neither would Egypt or Jordan. They are all watching Israel take out Hezbollah – and by extension – Iran.
However, this isn’t finished yet. Iran isn’t going to give up its goals that easily. But, its goals deeply harm the ME. They are currently harming Iraq and delaying its emergence as an industrial democracy; they are harming Lebanon in the same way. The Arab states don’t necessarily want to take on Iran – but- can they stand back and allow Israel to do it all for them?
I am beginning to worry…all of a sudden the world is starting to make sense….
Per the National Post:
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=c1e72781-9c04-4af3-9f11-8e1ad155faf3&k=77305
Canadian evacuees arrive in Cyprus
…
A woman wheeling her baby away from the boat in a stroller cried: “C’est l’enfer (It was Hell).”
While disembarking evacuees were livid at their treatment, no one placed the blame on Harper.
When asked about the Islamic militant group Hezbollah, which is embroiled in intense fighting with Israel, the evacuees distanced themselves from the movement and blamed them for the violence gripping Lebanon.
One man said, “Nobody is standing by them.”
Another man, when asked whether people support Hezbollah in Lebanon, said: “only the people with no brains.”
The last comment about says it all.
I think there’s some confusion here. The dramatic quote below is not from Mr. Lowry but from an email to him that he pasted into the NRO article.
“If the Israelis let this opportunity pass without dealing a fatal blow to Hezbollah .. (snip) …at least not prior to the Iranians having their nukes online.”
That said, I completely agree with the comments of Mr. Lowry’s emailer. A lot of blood has been spilled and a lot of destruction has occurred in Lebanon. I’ve no wish to see large scale Israeli casualties, but if they end this operation without wreaking severe harm on Hezbollah it will be a disaster.
“It’s the particular mix of loyalties which is queering the plan for Hezbollah. Yes, they’re all Muslims but Hezbollah are Shiite Arabs: not calculated to gain too much sympathy from Sunni Arabs.”
No, they’re not all Muslims. There are a lot of Christian Arabs in Lebanon – mind you they’re also far from pleased with what Hezbollah has brought down on their heads.
“No, they’re not all Muslims. There are a lot of Christian Arabs in Lebanon.”
I was contrasting the divisions amongst MUSLIMS.
Obviously such a contrast would not include CHRISTIAN Arabs.