Category: It’s Probably Nothing

Not What Cracked Up to Be

Saif al-Islam Qaddafi (quote p. 2):


saif.jpg
By Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images.
LOSING HEIR? Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, the second son of the Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, wrote a doctoral thesis on justice and democracy and cultivated influential friends in the West…
Until the violence erupted in Benghazi, in the days before he gave his television address, Saif had somehow managed to straddle two worlds. Occasionally his father clipped his wings: his television station, al-Libya, was reined in, and his stated desire for political reform, reflected in his Ph.D. thesis (which endorsed, ironically, the need “to hold war criminals personally responsible”), was continually under challenge. He did manage to get a few political prisoners released from Libyan jails. Some small degree of free expression entered Libyan society. To the extent that Saif was ever sincere—and this remains an open question—the problem was his father and his name: sources both of opportunity and of constraint…

Via Arts & Letters Daily.

Denial Disaster Destiny & The Man Behind the Curtain

The markets are having a really hard time dealing with the end of QE2. You could see a scenario where the market gaps down tomorrow, has another big loss and then starts to rally from there. Potentially even an intra-day reversal that gives you some kind of semblance of a pivot point. But I think that without the Fed in the US coming in aggressively with a QE3, that is going to be problematic, I think we have lower to go medium term.
You have two things going on. The Reality, the mathematic reality of the macro situation that the Global economy find itself in. Then there is the perception of the reality, which until the last couple of weeks has been far different than the underlying realities have been because of the ability of central banks to print money and keep stock markets, specifically stock markets from doing exactly what they are doing now. So I think there’s a reality check here and the downgrade of the US credit rating means that you are now seeing that if you pull back the curtain and expose the wizard behind pulling switches, the underlying reality is that they have not done anything to address the real problems of the macro economy. Specifically in the US and that extends out into the Globe….read more HERE

Algorithm Vs Algorithm

Via a registered investment advisor, who explains; You will want to read this, which explains exactly [the flash crash] a year ago May 6th. … If the exchanges allowed this argument to enter the mainstream press, the US stock market would be closed within a week. They are that dependent upon ‘flow’ to survive.”

Some algorithms, for example, can detect the electronic signature of a big VWAP, a process called ‘algo-sniffing’. This can earn its owner substantial sums: if the VWAP is programmed to buy a particular corporation’s shares, the algo-sniffing program will buy those shares faster than the VWAP, then sell them to it at a profit. Algo-sniffing often makes users of VWAPs and other execution algorithms furious: they condemn it as unfair, and there is a growing business in adding ‘anti-gaming’ features to execution algorithms to make it harder to detect and exploit them …
Whatever view one takes on its ethics, algo-sniffing is indisputably legal. More dubious in that respect is a set of strategies that seek deliberately to fool other algorithms. An example is ‘layering’ or ‘spoofing’. A spoofer might, for instance, buy a block of shares and then issue a large number of buy orders for the same shares at prices just fractions below the current market price. Other algorithms and human traders would then see far more orders to buy the shares in question than orders to sell them, and be likely to conclude that their price was going to rise. They might then buy the shares themselves, causing the price to rise. When it did so, the spoofer would cancel its buy orders and sell the shares it held at a profit. It’s very hard to determine just how much of this kind of thing goes on, but it certainly happens. In October 2008, for example, the London Stock Exchange imposed a £35,000 penalty on a firm (its name has not been disclosed) for spoofing.

Still, it’s probably nothing.
Update: From the comments…

I’m in software.
Years ago, I worked for a company that provided control software to the US Air Force. There were lots of papers to sign acknowledging the importance of “secrets” and we all had to sign waivers saying that we understood the penalty for divulging any material infomormation could include imprisonment in any NATO country…etc.
About two years ago, I interviewed for a job at a company that does nothing but high-speed trading algorithms.
The trading company was far more strict (and menacing) when it came to secrecy. It actually felt to me like they were some sort of cult.
I went through two interviews and, even at that point, they wouldn’t discuss the type of work they did. Instead, they’d just hint that it had something to do with the stock market. I knew who they were because a friend of mine had been through their grinder. But it was surreal…they wouldn’t even acknowledge that certain people had previously worked there.
Heck – at the end of the second interview, they weren’t even willing to name the job positions for which they were hiring.
Even the US Air Force wasn’t that super-secret.
I understand that these companies typically pay tens of millions just to buy old, plain looking brick buildings at “strategic” locations in New York, New Jersey, and Chicago – just to be physically close to the backbone of the systems on which the trades are conducted … thereby trying to gain microseconds of transaction speed over the competition.
Whatever their real impact on the markets, I am quite sure that these companies certainly see themselves as some sort of secret society.
I have no trouble believing that they have the ability to cause a flash crash. Honestly, I’m surprised we haven’t seen worse – and more often.

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