Author: Euan

Blowout 217

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And eclectic mix of energy and climate news stories from around The World

This week’s lead article features the “imminent end of cheap finance” – does this mean disaster for the renewable energy sector? We follow up with our usual mix of stories from around the world – OPEC; oil in California; Europe’s gas supplies and the “Beast from the East”; India needs 300 more nuclear reactors; Trump wants to sell off BPA; South Australia ramps up its renewable target; CCS in South Dakota; Elon Musk’s virtual power plant; a new offer on Swansea Tidal; Jacobson withdraws his defamation lawsuit; solar-powered rail for the UK and how CO2 dissolves Scottish starfish.

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Also last week:
Is Volatility in Oil Price on the Way, Again?

Oil price volatility exhibits periodic characteristics which correlate to that of general stock market volatility.

The ERoEI of Mining Uranium

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Most of us do not think about the energy we use to get energy. This area of study that comes in different guises is commonly know as net energy analysis. This becomes important when energy production systems consume almost as much or even more than they ever produce. High latitude solar and temperate latitude biofuels being good examples where the net energy, i.e. the energy available to us, approaches zero (energy return over invested: ERoEI~1). Mandates, targets and laws are effectively squandering resources. In this post I take a look at the energy balance of uranium mining in Namibia. The ERoEI is dependent upon the reactor technology used. Light water reactors indicate the ERoEI for uranium mining to be >>300-400 and in a fast neutron reactor >17,380. These numbers compare with conventional oil ~ 20 and oil sands ~ 3.
The ERoEI of Mining Uranium

Blowout 216

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Britain’s free market approach to green energy is not going to save humanity from climate change, claims Labour’s Jeremy Corbin in this week’s feature story. So let’s nationalize the UK energy industry. Stories to follow include OPEC vs. shale; Venezuela’s collapse; Gazprom and Europe’s gas; nuclear in India, Taiwan, France and the Middle East; carbon capture & storage in the US and Norway; Bitcoin mining in Iceland; a Puerto Rico school goes solar; Elon Musk to shake up the Oz grid; CCGTs lose out to batteries and interconnectors in US and UK capacity auctions, blockchain grid balancing in Germany; Lord Deben questions Swansea Bay; the coming mini-ice age and the solution to climate change – more women.

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Global Energy Forecast to 2100

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A global energy demand forecast is presented to 2100 based on historic growth of per capita energy consumption, 1965-2015 and on UN low and medium population growth forecasts. The low forecast sees energy demand growing from 13.15 billion tonnes oil equivalent (toe) per annum in 2015 to 19.16 billion toe in 2100. The medium population forecast sees 29.5 billion toe in 2100, that is a rise of 124% over 2015.
Global Energy Forecast to 2100
PS Canada leads the world rankings in per capita energy use, using 9.8 toe per capita in 2008. This compares with Denmark at 3.1 toe.
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Turning Canada into a Giant Battery

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The potential energy contained in the waters of the Great Lakes amounts to approximately six thousand terawatt hours, enough to supply the US and Canada with electricity for an entire year were the lakes to be drained to sea level. This of course will never happen, but there may be potential for partial utilization of the resource. A pumped hydro system that uses Lakes Huron and Michigan as the upper reservoir and Lake Ontario as the lower could theoretically generate 10 terawatt-hours, or more, of seasonal energy storage without changing lake levels significantly. The most likely show-stopper is the increased likelihood of flooding in the lower St. Lawrence River during pumped hydro discharge cycles.

The pumped hydro storage potential of the Great Lakes
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Niagara Falls run dry in 1969

Blowout 215

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This week’s lead story highlights the perils of basing policy decisions on speculative computer models. It seems that the ozone layer isn’t healing as predicted after all, so the dangers of man-made CFC radiation are still with us. And if radiation doesn’t do the job other computer models now tell us that melting permafrost threatens us with death from mercury poisoning. And if neither happens the forthcoming magnetic pole reversal spells the demise of civilization as we know it. Lots more energy and climate-related stories in this bumper Blowout, too numerous to synthesize, but read on and enjoy anyway. They’re not all bad.

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Oil Production Vital Statistics

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The oil price has begun 2018 strongly with Brent breaking through $70 / bbl for the first time since December 2014. OPEC+Russia+others’ discipline on production constraint remains high with ~ 1.7 Mbd production withheld from the market. The IEA reports an ~1 Mbpd stock draw in the OECD + China in 4Q 2017. IEA revisions transform the picture in the USA from one of static production to one of strong growth over the last 3 months (this undoes one of the assumptions used in my 2018 oil price forecast).

Oil Production Vital Statistics January 2018
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Oil production in Venezuela has fallen 810,000 bpd since December 2014 and describes the slow motion train wreck taking place in that country.

Blowout 214

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An eclectic mix of energy and climate news stories from around the world:

This week’s feature story raises the intriguing question of whether Russia, already a de facto OPEC member, shouldn’t become a de jure one. We follow up with a series of unusually optimistic stories on the future of oil and gas; France’s load-following nuclear plants; China’s new nuclear mega-company; Fukushima as a tourist destination; the EU acts to keep coal and gas plants afloat; a climate skeptic in charge of EU environmental policy; cuts in US clean energy spending; Maine’s wind moratorium; the UK’s recent capacity market auction; Australia’s heatwave inflates power costs; Ex-Obama adviser rejects battery storage; a 500-year solar cycle and how climate change turns big beetles into little ones.

Challenging the Establishment

Unsettled Science Y2Kyoto 18 Comments

The last instalment (probably) of this mini-series, I go on a picture tour of the N hemisphere looking into big snow and extreme cold events and ask whether these events are down to CO2 warming or could they be linked to the premature death of sunspot cycle 24?
There’s huge snowfall in the Alps this year, and one picture in particular caught my attention.
The Death of Sunspot Cycle 24, Huge Snow and Record Cold
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What has this winter been like where you are?

Challenging the Establishment

Unsettled Science Y2Kyoto 15 Comments

In my recent post on The Cosmogenic Isotope Record and the Role of The Sun in Shaping Earth’s Climate an interesting discussion developed in comments where there was a fair amount of disagreement among my sceptical colleagues. A few days later, retired Apollo astronaut Phil Chapman sent me this article which lays some of the doubts to rest. Phil never got to fly in space but was mission Scientist on Apollo 14. It is not every day I get the opportunity to publish an article from such a pre-eminent scientist.
Cosmic Rays, Magnetic Fields and Climate Change
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The N magnetic pole used to lie in northern Canada, but not any more.

Challenging the Establishment

Unsettled Science 9 Comments

A couple of weeks ago we began a discussion on my blog with the Geological Society of London (GSL) about their published statement on climate change which pretty well follows IPCC orthodoxy. The GSL have participated in the discussion (commenter Polar Scientist). The post is stuck to the top of Energy Matters. We have a series of articles in progress that examine the roles of the Sun’s and the Earth’s magnetic fields in deflecting cosmic rays and how this may impact climate change.
The Cosmogenic Isotope Record and the Role of The Sun in Shaping Earth’s Climate
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In 1728, an Inuit paddled this canoe into the estuary of the River Don, Aberdeen, Scotland.

Blowout 213

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Our usual eclectic mix of energy and climate news stories from around the world assembled by Roger Andrews

Donald Trump’s imposition of solar tariffs gets the nod as this week’s feature story. Does it signal a dismal future for solar in the US or is it just a bump in the road? In other news we have US shale spoiling the oil price rally; Austria on the nuclear warpath (again); Toshiba spins off Westinghouse; a nuclear reactor that won’t melt down; Canadians back renewables; Australia will meet its 2020 emissions target but Germany won’t; Macron’s tainted climate charm offensive; the “Tesla of the canals”; battery storage in the UK – yes or no? Budweiser beer is now 100% renewable and how bacon, egg and sausage sandwiches are to blame for global warming.

Blowout 212

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An eclectic mix of energy and climate news from around the world.

Without urgent action the UK will miss its climate targets, says this week’s feature story. What will it take to meet them? Carbon capture and storage and lots of electric cars. We follow with the US the world’s energy leader; Russian gas in Europe; NASA tests its mini-nuke; New York sues Shell & BP over climate change; the solar lobby files to stop construction of a Michigan gas plant; the EU ups its renewables targets; bitcoin miners flock to Canada; France to double wind capacity; Tesla’s Hornsdale battery gets paid for charging; UK wind and solar investment craters; Nike goes 100% renewable and how a warming Arctic is entombing musk oxen in ice and shrinking their babies.

Blowout 211

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This week we return to the Big South Australian Battery (BSAB), the alleged success of which – the “Tesla effect” – is spawning a raft of similar projects elsewhere in the country. Coming after we have Frydenberg on Snowy River; the usual dose of OPEC; Russia sells gas to the US; less gas to come from Groningen; California to close Diablo Canyon; coal in Finland, Poland, Bulgaria and Japan, hydro in Colombia; Germany’s Energiewende problems; renewables in Denmark and Colorado; less gas capacity planned for UK; Ineos to challenge Scotland’s fracking ban; a contingency plan needed for cold winter nights when the wind doesn’t blow; Trump reconsiders Paris and how climate change makes turtles female.

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Earlier in the week:
The 2018 Oil Production Forecast Explained

Blowout 210

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Is the US about to become the world’s largest oil producer? Our feature story says yes. To follow we have Trump’s offshore leasing program; record Russian gas production; Saudi Arabia’s gasoline price hike; Germany shuts down a nuclear reactor; Australia’s industry to power down during heatwave; Coal growth in Asia; the Snowy hydro project a “write off”; UK releases plans for coal phase-out; North America’s largest lithium battery; the wind (almost) always blows somewhere in Europe; fossil-fuel burning without the CO2; Scotland’s plans to combat coastal erosion and the struggle to save chocolate from climate change extinction.
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Blowout 209

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This week’s lead story features the imminent return of the Ice Age to UK – good news for those looking forward to a White Christmas. After that the usual mix: record production from the Permian, Putin replaces petroleum with natural gas; New England replaces natural gas with petroleum; nuclear plant restarts and shutdowns in Japan; German factories paid for using electricity; batteries and the California Duck Curve, solar in the Canadian Arctic; renewables in South Korea; the Scotland-Wales transmission link, UK frackers running out of time; the brutal US-Canada cold snap; Santa relocates to the South Pole and a Happy New Year to all.

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Blowout 208

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An eclectic mix of energy and climate news stories from around the world:

In this week’s Blowout we once more feature Tesla’s Big South Australian Battery, which is already helping to save Australia from blackouts. We follow with OPEC’s dilemma; Saudi Arabia hunts for gas; Macron backs nuclear; BHP exits the World Coal Organization; China’s carbon trading market; India’s hybrid wind-solar project; AEMO’s baseload-free future; CSP in the Sahara; Swansea Bay on the skids; climate scientists flock to France; snowfall doubles in Alaska while climate change threatens the Winter Olympics, and Season’s Greetings to all our readers.

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