In October, Tesla reported that it produced 220 Model 3 vehicles in the third quarter. CEO Elon Musk had previously said the company would produce more than 1,600 Model 3s by September.
Via Instapundit; As Instapundit readers have long known, Elon Musk promised Tesla would produce 500,000 Model 3 sedans in 2018 — and has accepted refundable $1,000 deposits on nearly that many.
His business is subsidy farming. He is the most successful subsidy farmer in history. Actually telling the truth about anything, is not relevant to that business model; only that loyal cult followers keep getting elected to hand over the subsidies.
Tesla makes all the other vehicle manufacturers look good.
My gawd why do people follow “they”.
I am a life-long car guy and it would normally be my reaction to cheer for the little guy with a great vision.
Instead, Musk(with apparently no delusions of being a ‘little guy’)has me cheering for an ugly demise for his fraud of a car company. He outright LIES consistently, then actually calls out customers as idiots for believing him when he is caught lying. He STILL can’t even efficiently build adequate numbers of ‘economy sedans’, yet he floods news cycles with bizarre claims of soon being immediately competitive with the massive pickup truck and semi markets. Nothing short of laughable.
Multiple experts have clearly pointed out that the necessary technology he claims he will use to achieve these lofty goals are currently non-existent. Tesla would already be yet another poorly managed car company on the scrap heap of history if not for subsidies and the MSM running block against the numerous bad news stories that focus on Musk’s dishonesty and incompetence.
I would bet good money that the embarrassingly naive major companies that have already placed orders for Tesla trucks KNOW damn they will NEVER actually have to take delivery of a single truck, so they are really participating in the most disgustingly dishonest form of virtue signaling that there is. If not, their entire purchasing departments need to be replaced with competent individuals that don’t gamble their company’s existence on the promise of soon delivered unicorn farts.
Starting a production line on a new product is always frought with a multitude of glitches and unforseen problems, which requires a budgeted allowance. It seems Musk failed to allow enough for this, and it may well be his undoing.
I don’t know about anyone else but I still like this sales site for Teslas:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/136377865@N05/sets/72157662351494899
Not a problem … Tesla will simply cut production of the Model S and Model X. Of course sales for those models have peaked and are flagging … but what the hey! This is GREAT NEWS! Step right up! Step right up! (calliope music) put your money down NOW … and get your eco-dream machine in 2022! (more calliope music) … say … would you like to take a flight on my Rocket!?
“New product”? You keep using that word new; I do not think it means what you think it means.
Electric cars have been under development since 1832. I will repeat EIGHTEEN THIRTY-TWO. There is nothing new about cars, electric cars, manufacturing…
Oops … here is the link I omitted … http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2017/11/02/tesla-announces-huge-losses/
I guess this translates into a … “buying opportunity” … for Tesla stock? Go for it! And don’t forget to buy some more Krispy Kreme stock while you are burning money on the altar of “the next big thing”
He must not have a high opinion of his cars when he wants to launch one into space.
My wife purchased a Model S last September. I have owned BMW’s, Mercedes, Audi’s, Honda’ and a plethora of Detroit cars since 1968
I have to say the Model S is the best Car we have ever owned, It is quick, nimble even at 140KM. I know because I drove it from Calgary to Phoenix and back last November. In Montana and Utah the speed limit is 80 MPH. At that speed, when you accelerate to pass it jumps like a rocket. It is quiet and luxurious. Plus the auto pilot worked great especially when driving through the Salt Lake City area which takes an hour and a half. The lane changing feature worked flawlessly.
Tesla’s operating model is that for 90 % of your driving when you are home, you just plug it in when you get home and at the 50 amp 220V range it takes 1-2 hours to top up depending on how much driving you did during the day. I have tallied my gas costs for the last 2 years and so far since we purchased the costs for Electricity are about 60% of the gas costs. and this included the carbon tax in Alberta
The other 10% of your driving that you may use for trips you can use a Tesla Supercharger free of charge and it takes about 40 minutes to fill up the electrons. Enough time for a coffee or a lunch. Our Motus Operendi was to drive for 3 hours, get out and stretch with a walk, have a coffee for abut 40 minutes while the Supercharger was at work. In the past in our Audi we would drive for 4-5 hours before gas fill ups and I would need a forklift to pry myself out of the car as I was all gibbled up from sitting so long.
We stopped at a Peavey mart once in Lethbridge and had free charging as most Peavey marts have outlets. We weren’t there long as there is a Supercharger at Fort Macleod which we used during our lunch before heading to Calgary.
Once in Phoenix most malls have Electrical Charging stations which can be used for free. There are also websites sites like Plugshare, and Chargepoint which are all over NA where you can charge. Some places for a nominal charge of $5.00
All in all we spent $15.00 in electricity going to and from Phoenix where the gas cost for my Audi was in the $800 dollar range.
I like the car so much I am going to buy a Model X for myself in The Spring.
I didn’t buy the Electric car because of Global warming as I don’t believe in it, I bought it for the drive, performance, responsiveness, luxury, and the quiet that electric motors have over gas engines. The only fluid I have to care about is windshield washer fluid. It goes in for brakes at 100,000KM and tires are the only other thing I need to worry about.
Sorry folks I can’t agree with the consensus on the car. Sure, Elon has some work to do to get his production quota up. Whether we agree or don’t agree governments in Europe and NA will push us this way, that is why other manufacturers are getting into the EV business right smartly.
The longterm solution is to have Nuclear power these things and not Wind, Solar.
Enjoy the cost of replacing the battery. And people who buy new things are reluctant to point out the problems….it sort of validates their decision to buy it in the first place.
So that’s how the owners stay warm when their Tesla runs out of power in a winter storm! I often wondered.
This is the problem I have with industry insiders who defend Tesla. “If you were designing an EV you too would have the same problems that Tesla is having” they claim. Yet I read that Tesla is having problems welding steel. What other car company is having problems welding steel? Tesla is having problems with the parts not fitting on the assembly line. What auto company, that is still in business, is having trouble fitting its car parts together?
Volkswagen is planning to invest 70 million Euros in electric cars. If EVs are here to stay, Tesla may be remembered as the company that led the charge but couldn’t figure out how to make cars.
I do not understand the big difference between an EV and a gas or diesel automobile (in terms of assembling). I don’t think there is anything magical to learn about assembling electric cars. I think Tesla just hasn’t figured out how to assemble autos efficiently. They can design them, they can build them, but they can’t build them quickly within the cost structure they are claiming.
Hah, led the charge.
Kenji- Good observation on the Model S. It is at very least due for a re-fresh, being 6 model-years old. However, Tesla has no resources to commit to a refresh of the S, meaning that sales will continue to decline on that model. All of the early-adapters that had the money to buy one, have done so. Any new sales will be from a shrinking pool, such as those who are just achieving the means to purchase one. Tesla’s sales model also has a big honkin’ Achilles heel- there’s no dealerships that can take trades. That means the guys who get first crack at the guy driving a 2014 Model S looking to trade up are selling Audi’s, Benz’s, and Cadillacs. Even if they smack the trade hard (i.e. buy it low), they’re still buying it right there, right then, for more than the Tesla non-dealer will offer for a trade they are not configured to take.
That scenario has a cascading set of issues for Tesla. The guy driving the 2014 Tesla might walk out of the Audi store on the number they ante up for his used S. But, when the Benz store comes up with a similar number, and then the BMW store, and he finally bites on a CT6, he’s never going back to Tesla, even if he changes tack and sells privately. First off, all of his golf buddies didn’t take nearly as big of a hit on the initial value of their Audi/Benz/Caddy sedans. My own research indicates that the fuel savings of driving an electric car for 72,000 miles are pretty much offset by the increased depreciation. Secondly, doing a private sale on a $60K car is far, far more difficult than selling a $15K car on Kijiji or Craig’s List. Worse, the new Audi/Benz/Caddy will look different than the old one. A 2018 S looks just like a 2012 S.
New Model 3 sales will also cannibalize some sales from existing S owners who stick with the brand. I’m no expert, but I’d bet that the Model 3 will eat a solid 10% of future S sales. And that’s only if Tesla can manage to do what it has so far failed to do-get production numbers up into that 10-12000 units per month range. In late December, Tesla was making claims of close to 15,000 units for the last quarter of 2017. That was for all three models- S, X, and the 3. That’s far short of what’s needed, and if history is any indication, the real number will be less than that.
I’m not cheerleading the death of Tesla. I am, however, cheerleading the death of the cult of Tesla.
A couple of comments. I don’t know what welding steel has to do with anything as the Tesla body is made of Aluminum.
Batteries are guaranteed for 8 years,( they lose about 5% range in that time) and Elon has plans for a re-cycling plan, I usually don’t hold onto gas cars for more than 4 years, we’ll see about the Tesla. I believe gas vehicles wear out faster as they have thousand of more moving parts than EV’s.
Have you ever run out of gas in a winter storm… I have once on the Champlain bridge in Montreal.
It’s hard to explain but ones driving habits change, Instead of filling up with once or twice a week, it’s plugged in every night.
Test drive one if you can, you’ll see and feel the difference from a Gas powered vehicle, The response is Instantaneous.
There is virtually no difference or feel from one gas powered vehicle to the next. They are all sluggish even the muscle cars when compared to a EV like Tesla.
Tesla S aluminum. Tesla 3 steel.
http://autoweek.com/article/car-news/tesla-might-be-missing-spot-weld
The model S is a beautiful automobile.
RL- Every winter going back as far as I can remember, we have been told to get timers for our block heaters, as having 8-10,000 cars plugged in, drawing 5-6 amps at 110V is a big load on the system in the winter time. Now, keep in mind that in a city like mine (pop 100K), a big portion of the populace is parking in garages with no requirement for block heaters.
So, let’s flash forward and assume that two government goals have been met- large scale adaption of electrics, and an even greater reliance on wind/solar- and it’s now -25C. Despite having 2500 MW of hypothetical wind power, there’s only 25 MW available because the wind ain’t blowing. However, 100,000 Albertans need to plug in their electric cars, over and above the several hundred thousand who still need to plug in just for block heaters. The load on the grid will be far greater than it was last week, because we’ve actually increased the number of people drawing from a smaller grid. Being parked indoors will not take cars off the grid as it does now.
The bottom line here is that we have colliding realities that will not co-exist well.
Liberals are great at starting new companies, but suck at running them, Musk needs to step away from the action and let a real conservative business man run the show.
There are no real businessmen in the electric car business. Since electric cars have been around since 1832, and they have yet to achieve success, all real businessmen have long since moved on yo real businesses.
Seems there are a few cult fanatics here. There always are.
TSLA currently trading at $314.62 USD. If there ever was a stock to short prior to their next annual report…
On an aside nat gas took a kicking today on lower-than-forecast withdrawal (206bcf) news that was still 100+ bcf MORE than the 5yr average – go figure. “Fair Market” pricing for natural gas at current storage levels should be in the $3.80 range but…one of the main drivers suppressing natural gas is the strong belief that winter is over after the latest eastern cold snap ends next week. NOAA’s 90day forecast shows mild temperatures but includes a low confidence disclaimer. I’m a big believer in regression to the mean and I have yet to see an accurate long range weather forecast. If there’s more returns of the “polar vortex” later this winter I think there will be more starving bears than just the sickly white ones…
i hope they triple up the battery power it is cold out there.
As a child … I drove many an electric slot car on the floor of my living room. So, yeah, I “get” the instant response of an electric motor when I depress the plunger of my controller. However … no batteries were involved. No recharging stops to stretch my legs. And no lies about recharging the ENTIRE battery in 40min.
I much prefer the twin turbos and twin exhaust of my 335i hardtop convertible (lovely notes from my Borla cat-back exhaust) and I easily make the 425 mile journey between my home in the SF Bay Area and my daughters place in Dana Point CA on one tank of petrol. No stops. No stretching of legs … just pure motoring comfort … with every electrical device in full use; air conditioning, power windows, power mirrors, wipers, electric water pump, multi channel stereo, navigation … the whole kit and kaboodle. Oh … and I usually “average” about 85mph. With my incredibly efficient workhorse sipping the gasoline at a steady, constant, velocity … I get north of 27mpg
AND I’ve noticed something about the heavily travelled stretch of I-5 between SF and LA … no Teslas. No Volts. No Leaves. I’ve yet to see a single electric car driving … or self-driving *snicker* on I-5. No … I only see the $ 100k+ Teslas in the parking lot of my local Whole Foods Market. Where the ultra wealthy hipster trophy wives can signal (simultaneously) their wealth and eco sensitivity. They even have room for their recyclable shopping bags in the “engine compartment”. I am sure they look down their noses at my paltry little -used- 335i hardtop convertible that I purchased 3-years old for $30k … in dead mint condition … with 35k on the odometer … barely broken-in. I could have purchased a FLEET of my cars … a minimum of FOUR … for the price of a Tesla Eco saloon. Ridiculous. I see Tesla going the way of DeLorean … and Elon Musk actually behaves quite like all the cocaine addicts I have known.
So enjoy your Tesla till the 8-year “guaranteed” (better read the fine print) battery fails. BTW … Tesla refuses to buy-back any of their automobiles … a policy they changed immediately after it became apparent there is NO MARKET for used electric cars needing an expensive battery refresh. Me? I will easily be driving this FABULOUS nimble, quick, flat out FAST 335i well into the 200’s only odometer … and my pristine, jet black, hardtop convertible will STILL have strong resale value.
Kenji- We noticed a distinct paucity of Tesla’s on our Oregon trip last summer.The long and the short of Tesla’s problems seem to revolve around simply building them. Musk seems to have a deep-seated reluctance to hire real car guys with hard-core car building expertise. Without them, he’s tits up. There’s obviously a market for the cars, and as RL points out, they can be rewarding cars to own for some people.
My guess is that Tesla shares will lose 50% of their value by the end of 2018, barring a turnaround to 15,000 units per month by March. The share value will continue to drop until it resembles that of a niche automaker capable of filling a market of 100-150K units per year. That will also hinge upon another factor. Tesla has to become profitable absent the tax credits.
You can talk all you want about the value of the intellectual property within Tesla, but the current share value is absolute fantasy island stuff. Compare to Ford and GM. Tesla’s higher market valuation ignores the fact that GM likely has more money tied up in CNC milling machines than Tesla has in total real estate holdings. The fair market value of Ford’s real estate holdings is probably equivalent to several years gross product sales for Tesla. Fiat Chrysler sold more Ram pick-ups in the last quarter of 2017 than the total Tesla sales for 2017. Every single one of those trucks delivered more profit than Tesla has ever earned.
All stocks live or die by a hard rule- absent profits, they become worthless.