Run For Your Lives!

18 Replies to “Run For Your Lives!”

1. The sea level rise may be exacerbated by the sliding of Kalifornica into the pacific, as an answer to everyones’ prayer. You know – water displacement, etc.

2. That graph looks to be fluctuation with ZERO trend. As Feller commented (more or less),
   probability is tricky and sometimes confounds even those who work with it.
   I could show you similar graphs of molecular dynamics simulations of systems which are set up
   to be in equilibrium.

3. 5000 years is meaningless. In less than half that time we will be into the next major glacial advance, as the current interglacial is well past its expiry date. And with the glacial advance will come a large drop in ocean levels.

4. 5,000 years?? Why can’t it happen sooner? After all, it IS Miami.

5. How much of this minute rise in sea level can be attributed to displacement by the millions of tons of soil pouring into the oceans annually from all the world’s rivers? Or the continuous undersea volcanic activity. Or Fat Al going for a dip at the beach…

6. There was a CBC National item on Miami a few nights ago
   They showed the present “king tide” right up to the seawalls, ritzy houses with the water at their driveways, people waiting in water for the bus, & mention an estimate of 240 tidal floodings per year by 2045.
   From the union of concerned scientists —
   Tidal flooding — from “occasional” to “chronic” to “incessant” [with pictures]
   They are busy rebuilding the seawalls.

7. as has been noted, there are manifold possible explanations for the almost nil sea level rise – one being that Miami is – on a geological scale – sinking…

8. That’s pretty fast, but it’s the first thousand years that always grind.

9. Well Snag, I hadn’t thought about the sediments that flow into the oceans. But, now that we are on the oceans, what about the coral that are constantly gowing and displacing water and what about the ground water that is pumped out of the ground that ends up in the oceans. Ha, I just got the Fat Al reference. I was thinking of the wrong Fat Albert.

10. Virtually none. Given the volumes involved, any overall change in sea level is nearly all thermal expansion or contraction. On a local level, changes take place in the shoreline from geologic phenomena such as continental drift producing coastline changes. For example, the famous pass of Thermopylae was about 30 metres wide during the battle, but today is about 3 km wide, primarily as a result of geologic changes to Greece over time and some variations in sea level.
    Large scale land based glaciation results in a significant drop in sea level.

11. Coral? No effect at all. It’s merely taking CO2 out of solution and locking it up as limestone.
    Ground water? No change to sea level. The volumes pumped are far too small. But all urban areas always subside as a result of pumping out ground water. That’s why New Orleans is now below sea level. Over time, all harbours subside to some degree.

12. If ever there was an asymmetric probability curve … imagine this one. 10% chance of 500 years, and 10% chance of never.
    Anyway, I pity the Miami folk of 7014 A.D., at least Obama should be gone by then. Probably the Panthers too.

13. SEA LEVEL
    The key line in this video starts at 2:32, as they casually mention that they can only tell sea level to an accuracy of 1 meter.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q65O3qA0-n4
    So… their predictions are within the margin of error of sea level measurement.
    Something to keep in mind…

14. Why can’t it start right away so we don’t have to wait 15 years to find out you’re lying through your teeth?

15. Well dizzy, the UCS is an environmental NGO with assets in excess of $25M, all of which comes from people supporting the alarmist narrative, with that cool $25M to lose if they don’t.
    So in brief, that means that they can go f*ck themselves. Here are over 30,000 scientists who disagree with them. Here, in case you missed it, is the proof that GISS deliberately alters temperature data: https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/data-tampering-at-ushcngiss/
    You’re welcome – tons more if you need it. You’d need to have an open mind, though – oops.

16. Dizzy, your “Union of Concerned Scientists” presents a series of alarmist projections based on absolutely nothing capped off with a plea for funds to continue their “work” i.e. making more hysterical projections based on even less. They’re the modern day version of the hell-fire and brimstone preachers who entertained the crowd with graphic images of the apocalypse from the book of Revelation and then passed the hat to save the awed, gullible audience from perdition.
    I don’t buy it. A computer model and a graph pulled out of mid-air isn’t “research”.
    Bytown’s offering on you-tube is substantially the same as the discussion I had with my brother the geologist when we were discussing the height of mountains such as Everest and K2. When they talk about the height of Everest being 29.028 feet above sea-level, those last few feet are meaningless. Sea level is not and can never be a precisely defined quantity for the reasons outlined in the you-tube presentation. Sea level is constantly changing at different rates in different parts of the world due to confounders such as subsidence, silt deposition, erosion etc. Rye was once one of the Cinque Ports and is now many miles inland. The only constant is constant change.

17. The only data of consequence in that UCS piece is the NCA estimate. It cannot be taken seriously. The tide gauges are mostly located in or near harbours, all subject to the subsidence I mentioned above. That the rate of rise has increased since 1921 is inevitable. It happened as a result of increased urban development. In short, it’s a local effect.

18. Five thousand years? Weeeere Aaall gooonna Drooooowwwwwn!