Open thread for predictions, discussion and results of the four federal by-elections being held today.
Pithy analysis in the comments – “If Dion loses 2 out the 4, Harper could introduce a confidence motion into the House instructing John Baird to go to Stornaway and beat Dion’s dog to death with the bumper of a Hummer and Dion’s only response before abstaining would be to politely ask them not to get the carpet bloody.”
Follow the returns at Blogging Tories.
Update Bob Rae gives tearful victory speech … Stephane Dion trampled by the crowd.
More pithy analysis!
Win or lose in Quadra, looks like the Conservatives picked up about 20 points.
20
points
in a
liberal
stronghold.
(in the purported heartland of “Cadscam”)
And of course, we extend a big thank you to the Dion braintrust, Joan Beatty and the Orchard Davidians for delivering a Conservative victory in DMCR! With 7 polls remaining and a 1500+ vote lead, CTV continues to keep “a close eye on this riding”…
More reluctant media…
“With 160/182 polls in and a 16% spread…CPAC’s schumcky anchor refuses to call the race for the Conservative. The ditz on CityTV in Toronto said “This is shocking…the Liberals aren’t winning in Saskatchewan.” (without irony). There’s red tears running on the tube tonight, and the bias is sickening.”
I found it strange that pundits were saying that these by-elections would be a real test of Dion’s leadership abilities. In the strongest of Liberal strongholds? I would venture that if the Libs don’t get overwhelming majorities in each of these ridings, that Dion’s days are numbered.
Three libs and one conservative.
I hope the Liberals win all four or we’ll never have an election.
If Dion loses 2 out the 4, Harper could introduce a confidence motion into the House instructing John Baird to go to Stornaway and beat Dion’s dog to death with the bumper of a Hummer and Dion’s only response before abstaining would be to politely ask them not to get the carpet bloody.
One ND, one Conservative and Two leftist abstainers! ( Toronto )
Rae will get in, and that means he will take over Dion’s place as the liberal leader. We all know that anyway.
Hahaha… poor Kyoto… Harper could introduce a motion to convert Stornoway into Canada’s largest and most exclusing Tim Horton’s!
Rae will get in, and that means he will take over Dion’s place as the liberal leader. We all know that anyway.
Rae will get in, and that means he will take over Dion’s place as the liberal leader. We all know that anyway.
Quadra is going to surprise us this evening. Tory win
Willowdale will be closer then expected. Liberal hold
Rosedale will shock Bob Rea. NDP win
Saskatchewan will return to the Tories.
what a hiccup, jumped right over Bob’s text.
My prediction: A family in Green Lake will be watching shows on their raffle-won brand-new TV by tonight.
Voter turnout in the northern reaches of the Sask riding will be 105%.
Jim O’Brien: “Rosedale will shock Bob Rea. NDP win”
While not wishing for any more Taliban Jacks or Jacqettes in the HoC, I can see there would be a neat irony in Boob Bray being knocked off by the party he abandoned by the tony Rosedale voters.
Happy St. Patrick’s Day!!
Im not sure anyone else is running,
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/parliament39/byelections.html
CBCpravda , All Liberal , All the Time
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i used to live in toronto rosedale… rae showing naked buttocks on
rick mercer show… went over huge with a certain demographic.
i’m predicting rae by a cheek.
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Just watched Layton on Duffy …. could you people please refrain talking about beating things ….. don’t make me a freaking maniac …
These by-elections have nothing to do with Dion. But that’s irrelevant to the MSM, who will see the inevitable wins in long-held Liberal territory as ‘confirmation of the Liberal Majesty and Might ..and Dion’.
The agenda of the Liberals is to get Rae in, and then, he’ll ‘de facto’ become the Liberal leader. BUT, BUT, the Liberals are going to be presenting themselves to the public as Team Canada. Team Players. The Liberals – all about collaboration, Working Together..blah blah.
So, they’ll have Dion netted and tied to Rae. And Ignatieff. And Goodale. You see, the Liberals, being Good Guys, Work With Everyone. Together. All images in the future will show them all together.
The Liberals will portray the Conservatives and Harper as – The Dictator. Unwilling To Work With Others…unlike we Liberals who are open to Canadians, to multiculturalism, to doing everything together..blah blah.
It’s quite the strategy. They can’t get rid of Dion by having an election because that would cost them too many seats. They can’t fling him into the Rideau canal because…. So, their tactic of dealing with Dion is to reject the very Notion of Leadership.
Not for the Liberals. A single leader – heck, that’s a tyrant. A dictator. A Bush..and Harper. well, isn’t he the Northern Bush???? Remember, truth and validity have no relevant in the Liberal Planet.
So- I’ guessing the Liberals will win the two Toronto seats. I hope, I hope, they don’t win them all.
I’m going to be honest – I think the Conservatives have done a very poor job at informing the public about the vast amount of work that this govt under Harper has accomplished.
Since we’ve got the MSM papers and CBC, CTV, focusing only on Liberal Love and anti-Conservatives, the MSM doesn’t inform the public.
Therefore, the public doesn’t have any idea just how much has been accomplished under this govt. The govt has to do more to inform the citizens – and expecting people to check out govt sites isn’t the answer.
I figure the two TO ridings and Quadra will go Liberal. I’m holding out hope for the good folks of Saskatchewan to throw the bums out.
I’m currently in TO Centre.
I think it will come down to the motivation of Dionistas. It’s a sunny day and being St. Patrick’s, there’s a lot of drinking that needs to be done, so I don’t know if people will get out there.
What I do know is that the advance polls have been very poorly attended – which may tell you something about interest. I hope I’m not speaking out of school when I say this but I’ve heard rumours that Elections Canada is refusing to release numbers from some advance polls because it would violate confidentiality. Which is to say that in some polls you had only 1 or 2 people voting.
So who is more motivated? I would be stunned if we Tories won this riding, but I would not be at all surprised if the numbers changed a lot and the Liberal victory was much much narrower than the press is making out.
Vancouver Quadra? I drove through there before I left the city – in the sign war, the Tories were clear losers with only 1 sign that I saw. The Dippers are winning that battle for sure, easily outnumbering the Liberals. But once again, it’s down to motivation. I think the Liberals may keep that one – but again in a squeaker.
CPAC was doing a live broadcast of a Toronto talk radio show and the idiots allowed Martha Hall Findlay to be in the studio answering questions and calls. It’s Election Day . . . not campaign Day
Talk about freebie against the rule liberal advertising on election day . . no wonder the fools vote Liberal.
I’ll say 2 Toronto ridings will stay Liberal – you could run anything in red, from a fire hydrant to a red painted horse’s patoot and the drones in Toronto would vote Liberal.
The Sask race will go CPC and Quadra/BC will go Green – lotsa University folks who are Kyoto Believers and a True Believers.
Im not sure anyone else is running,
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/parliament39/byelections.html
CBCpravda , All Liberal , All the Time
Posted by: cal2 at March 17, 2008 5:15 PM
That initial article references the various political parties thusly:
Liberals 8
Conservatives 2
NDP 3 (and 1 was for Bob Rae as an ex-NDP)
Green 0
then when you dig into the 4 articles for each of the by-elections
Toronto Centre:
Liberals 6
Conservatives 2
NDP 3
Green 1
Willowdale:
Liberals 5
Conservatives 2
NDP 1
Green 1
DMC:
Liberals 6
Conservatives 2
NDP 3
Green 1
Vancouver Quadra:
Liberals 6
Conservatives 2
NDP 1
Green 1
One of the talking heads on Duffy mentioned the ethnic Chinese vote in one of the Moronto ridings , and the fact they were concerned about property crimes ….that they were’nt in favour of them . Where do they find these idiots ?
This is how a filthy Liberal votes, 36 percent of them to date!
Do you think the Chinese response to unrest in Tibet should trigger a boycott of the Beijing Olympics?
Yes
64% 8279 votes
8279 votes
No
36% 4727 votes
4727 votes
Go and cancel Boob Rae’s vote.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/
thanks for counting reid, so basicly 3 to one at best.
I actually dont see any reference in the main article.
RobertJago you’re right about motivation the people who give a shit are motivated, first you vote then you carry on. I’m hoping the nice sunny day will keep the LPC voters on the patio drinkin green bevvies basking in their own supreme apathy
Saw the braaaawwwdcast. Newman, who has been obsessed recently with keeping the so-called NAFTAgate and Cadman affairs in the spotlight as long as he can, was all silent on the Strategic Council poll (mentioned on Duffy Live, but ignored by Newman), which showed nearly 2/3 of those surveyed didn’t have their views changed of Harper as a result of the two issues.
The poll is significant because it reveals a large number of those surveyed who don’t even support the Harper gov’t agree that these are not huge issues.
On the by-elections Newman spoke with Joe Jordan, a “consultant”, giving his analysis. The same Joe Jordan – fmr. Liberal MP, who, along with Marlene Jennings, worked to obstruct the 2004 committee probing the $ponsorship $candal.
Oh yeah, the spin stops here!
Well, my vote went to Don Meredith earlier today. As I said here somewhere before, if we really wanted to screw the Libs, we should have voted NDP, but Meredith doesn’t deserve to be treated like that.
What I wouldn’t give to see Rae sitting on his ass tomorrow morning having lost the election that everyone assumed he would win…
“I think the Conservatives have done a very poor job at informing the public ” ET
You know I think that you are dead right on this. It has mystified me that the Conservatives haven’t taken some of the huge positives there are surrounding our effort in Afghanistan for example. What the hell is wrong with standing firm and being loudly proud of what we are doing. They didn’t, and they seem to employ the same heads down strategy on everything else as well.
Nope. up. Loud and proud. The MSM would pick up on it and broadcast it far and wide as if it was going to hurt them. My guess, it wouldn’t. I’ve an inkling their is a much larger audience for straight talk, pride, and the antithesis of Socialist pandering to every interest group imaginable than anyone in the MSM suspects.
Saw the braaaawwwdcast. Newman, who has been obsessed recently with keeping the so-called NAFTAgate and Cadman affairs in the spotlight as long as he can, was all silent on the Strategic Council poll (mentioned on Duffy Live, but ignored by Newman), which showed nearly 2/3 of those surveyed didn’t have their views changed of Harper as a result of the two issues.
The poll is significant because it reveals a large number of those surveyed who don’t even support the Harper gov’t agree that these are not huge issues.
On the by-elections Newman spoke with Joe Jordan, a “consultant”, giving his analysis. The same Joe Jordan – fmr. Liberal MP, who, along with Marlene Jennings, worked to obstruct the 2004 committee probing the $ponsorship $candal.
Oh yeah, the spin stops here!
If Adscam didn’t get Torontonians angry enough (angry at all) to change their vote in the last election then nothing will.
A popular sentiment expressed by Torontonians in 2006 was that they feared a Harper majority and that was a key reason (excuse) for voting Liberal. These by-elections don’t change the balance of power. Yet both Toronto ridings will go solidly Liberal again tonight. Collective dishonesty then and now.
Maybe their reasons this time for voting solidly Liberal will be to show their support for Dion’s strong leadership style, his opposition to the budget, opposition to extending the combat role of the Afghanistan mission past Feb 2009, and the LPC’s collective works of confidence motion abstentions and walkouts. Stand proud Torontonians.
The CPC shouldn’t waste a single dime in fielding candidates anywhere in Toronto in the next election.
I suppose a question for Bob Rae if one were to be as unlucky as to live in his riding would be are you going to be wearing running shoes so you can head to the hallways as fast as the rest of the libs?
Will people please exercise some patience, and stop double-and triple-posting your comments?
Thank you.
I’d like to think that we could pick up Vancouver Quadra (with a following wind!). I drive through it twice a week and I’d say garden posters (if that’s any guide to voting patterns) are split pretty evenly between Liberals and Tories. BC is a law unto itself though and I doubt if much insight can be gained into the national picture from the result here tonight. Much more interesting is the size of the Liberal victories in Willowdale and Toronto Centre.
Perhaps it’s time for some strategic voting in TO next election.
Maybe the CPC voters should be voting NDP to reduce the number of liberal MPs.
ABL.
Anything But Liberal.
Hmmmmmmmmm.
TC Rosedale hase very, very, very little “Rosedale” to it at all. Furthermore, there aren’t all that many Lib/NDP in Rosedale – it’s a conservative stronghold full of very good people with VERY conservative ideas. A few Joe Clarkites (John Tory, come on down) and some idiot media types and mentally deficient heirs. Unfortunately the riding is designed (along with the rest of the midtown Toronto ridings) to be dominated by the slums of St. Jamestown/Jarvis/Regnt Park as well as Boystown and Cabbagetown. Liberals have done very well to ensure that the core conservative constituency in Toronto is split up amongst a number of ridings, with no ridings having any actual identity or commonality of interests. Very nice gerrymandering to perpetuate the lie of “Liberal Toronto” so well that even conservatives believe it.
Anyone have any info on voter turnout, like long lines waiting to vote, crowded polling stations.
Maybe PMSH and Dion should make a pact, we wont run in Toronto and Dion will not run in AB.
Then PMSH can make another pact with Layton, we will lend you our vote in all Toronto ridings.
The loss of 1.75/vote will be made up by no campaign costs in Toronto.
But, we will fight like hell in the rest of Ontario. Any idea of how many liberal voters have moved west since 2006.
Where are the Libs,especially Dion going to get money for an election? On Duff tonite,he said Dion still owes about a MILLION dollars from the leadership farce.He then mentioned Iggy,Hall-Findlay etc still owe huge sums,with Bob Rae being only one that has paid his off.??Desmarais money? And who better financially to fight the next leadership bid…unless the just coronate him.
errr…Garth???
Maybe switch to decaf….just kidding
hey – I think you are wrong about Toronto Centre. It’s heavily Liberal. That includes Rosedale. Big money was what funded the Old Liberal Boys, before Chretien, to prevent Martin’s funding, changed the political funding scheme to wipe out corporate funding of political parties.
Remember, Chretien used the taxpayer’s money for his own campaigns in Quebec.
The downtown Toronto core has been dramatically changed over the past 10 years by zoning changes which permitted multiple condos along the Lakeshore, around the Market, and further along – all very expensive condos. A tiny one bedroom, about 450 sq ft, going for 250,000. Larger ones going for twice that. The area is geared to the lifestyles of the civil service, the education, the health services, etc etc – all government jobs. All Liberals. That includes the banks and finance area – many of these people live in the area.
It’s Liberal – because they’ve been socialized within the idea of Canada as ‘Liberal’. They don’t think about any issues, and the buzz topics of Afghanistan, Kyoto, etc, are accepted without thought or analysis.
Other areas in the district are poorer. And ethnic. They are Liberal too, because the Liberals have deliberately set themselves up to entrap these people within a welfare and subsidized lifestyle. Rather than enabling them to be entrepreneurs or to assimilate with Canada, the LIberals have set them up to depend on subsidized housing, on grants to maintain their ‘old ways’…and so on. Heck – it brings in the votes.
Rae is being touted as The White Knight by the Liberals. He’s going to save them. They are presenting themselves as Team Workers. As Rae says, “There’s no ‘I’ in ‘team’.
Neat. But there’s an ‘I’ in Liar and Thief.
Sorry, ET, I think Hey is probably right.
Toronto Centre is demographically dominated by very low income and gay voters. The rich people at the top of the riding and at the bottom of the riding are not so numerous. Any one of the dozens of very low income housing apartments on Sherbourne between Bloor and Queen would have as many voters in it as half of Rosedale.
The so-called “rich” parts of Rosedale are at least split 50/50 lib/CPC, and I think sentiment is shifting away from the Libs in this group, as increasingly the libs are being identified with failed social policies.
I think the vote talley at individual polling stations is only way to tell the truth of what goes on in this riding. Is there any way to access that short of showing up at the election headquarters?
go here to be able to pick up results
http://enr.elections.ca/
Losing half would likely mean Dion should just go back to the academic world.
I thought Liberals didn’t believe in abstinence, that they saw it as oppressive and hateful and denounced any attempt by schools to recommend it to students.
Now we see them practicing it with quasi-religious zeal.
Irony of ironies!
Lori- what about the reasonably rich people who lilve in the new condos around the St. Lawrence Market, and Richmond St, King St,..etc. And the old ones around Bloor and Jarvis..
I agree with you that the single family house in Rosedale has fewer voters than the apartments along Sherbourne – which are indeed, low, low income. And there are quite a few of those buildings.
I was watching at one polling station in Toronto Centre – and the turnout is low.
I still think the riding is heavily Liberal. That includes the new condos built in the last ten years. And the ethnic minorities. The NDP might take the Church St. gay community but what else?
We’ll see. I can’t imagine the CPC will win it, but it would sure be fun if the NDP did! Ahh, that would show Bob Rae.
ET: the “reasonably rich” people at St. Lawrence etc are the ones I was referring to as the “bottom” of the riding. They are new to the riding compared to a decade ago, but there can’t be 1000 of them. Probably much less, and even less will turn out to vote.
Turnout at my polling station seemed sparse, but it was early in the day, and I was not there for long. Judging by the amount of media coverage in the past month, turnout should be very light.
Unfortunately the Liberals could run Martha Hall Findlay’s dog in the Willowdale riding and win handily. Depressing indeed.
thanks for counting reid, so basicly 3 to one at best.
I actually dont see any reference in the main article.
Posted by: cal2 at March 17, 2008 5:56 PM
I did a ‘Ctrl F’ search in each of those articles for “Liberal, Conservative, NDP, and Green.”
Interesting bit of info on MDL tonight… that Dion is in Toronto tonight. So you’ll see him with MHF & Mr. Rae Daze on the news tonight when the Trawna sheeple line up at the Liberal trough to vote tonight.
who cares? really, what will change? nothing – Canada is no longer a democracy
New Poll at NNW: Will the Lieberals sweep all 4 By-Elections?
http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/index.php?option=com_poll&task=results&id=27&mosmsg=Thanks+for+your+vote%21
Scott Reid(fear and popcorn) has just predicted a Liberal sweep because most canadians are progressive. Well,that does it for me,no further need to watch.
What is the AAEV or whatever party. Never heard of them.
Get over to National Newswatch and vote NO in the poll, before results start coming in.