Open thread for predictions, discussion and results of the four federal by-elections being held today.
Pithy analysis in the comments – “If Dion loses 2 out the 4, Harper could introduce a confidence motion into the House instructing John Baird to go to Stornaway and beat Dion’s dog to death with the bumper of a Hummer and Dion’s only response before abstaining would be to politely ask them not to get the carpet bloody.”
Follow the returns at Blogging Tories.
Update Bob Rae gives tearful victory speech … Stephane Dion trampled by the crowd.
More pithy analysis!
Win or lose in Quadra, looks like the Conservatives picked up about 20 points.
20
points
in a
liberal
stronghold.
(in the purported heartland of “Cadscam”)
And of course, we extend a big thank you to the Dion braintrust, Joan Beatty and the Orchard Davidians for delivering a Conservative victory in DMCR! With 7 polls remaining and a 1500+ vote lead, CTV continues to keep “a close eye on this riding”…
More reluctant media…
“With 160/182 polls in and a 16% spread…CPAC’s schumcky anchor refuses to call the race for the Conservative. The ditz on CityTV in Toronto said “This is shocking…the Liberals aren’t winning in Saskatchewan.” (without irony). There’s red tears running on the tube tonight, and the bias is sickening.”
OOps,he hasn’t conceded the Sask. riding. Sorry,my bad. But wow,is he ever looking puffy and bloated. Either he needs to change his diet or his cosmetician.
Toronto, as usual, will chew on broken glass and vote Liberal. I can’t figure out why, that’s for sure. But I do agree with one of the earlier posters in the fact that hopefully the Liberals win a few so we can go to the polls already…
Just saw Gerry Ritz in a Meadow Lake restaurant an hour ago. Wish’d them the best.
Like ET, I am not looking forward to the Liberals “dream team” phoniness. This was mentioned by Craig Oliver the other day, and I was appalled when he gratuitously added in his own comment “a team approach — which Canadians seem to prefer to the more authoritarian one-man Harper approach. (not exact wording, but close) — so, would any one call Jean Chretien or Trudeau “team players” — the “team” mantra is essentially a cover-up for a weak leader. In addition, I would dearly love to know how well that “team” will operate behind closed doors. I think there are a few rogues on the “team.”
Conservative candidate romping in Desenthe/Churchill; so far, anyway.
Hmmm,I wonder if the same pundits who so accurately predicted the AB. election moved over to Sask. Reid is telling us that this shows steffi’s a man of his word by putting a woman in the riding. Let the spin cycle begin.
Remeber the last time the Liberals ran under the team approach.
Team Martin…..how did that work out for ya.
Liberal Joan Beatty 1,028 32.7 32.7%
Conservative Rob Clarke 1,537 49.0 49.0%
NDP-New Democratic Party Brian Morin 491 15.6 15.6%
Green Party Robin Orr 83 2.6 2.6%
Total number of valid votes: 3,139
Polls reporting: 55/182 Voter turnout: 3,139 of 41,841 registered electors (7.5%)
Goto
Elections Canada and click on the Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River link for all four electoral district results.
Dang, the link worked in the preview….try again.
Elections Canada
I just took a quick look over at the aging wanna-be punk’s(jailhouse variety)website and he is boldly predicting that the greens will take more votes than the conservative candidate. Sure thing,bub.
Above post refers to MHF’s riding.
CP declares Rae and Hall-Findlay elected
CPC candidate has 49% to 31% for Joan Beatty, with 65/181 reporting. Not declared the winner yet.
The Conservatives had a very good candidate going against Martha: Maureen Harquail Too bad she did not get more profile. I hope we have not seen the last of her.
Looking at the # of polls reported so far and the vote totals for the Toronto ridings… Willowdale won’t even hit 25% voter turn out and Toronto Centre won’t hit 30%. Sad.
MaryT
AAEV Party of Canada is short for the Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada. I guess when the Green Party is not “Green” enough, you have an alternative.
AAEV Party
The noteworthy item is the collapse of the NDP vote in the Ontario ridings. I suspect that the prominence and name-recognition of the Liberal candidates may have something to do with that, however.
Greens (Chris Tindall) making a good showing too.
Still waiting for the vulk of the Vancouver polls.
lol…the Rhino party is running a “John Turner” in Quadra. Anyone seen “The Distinguished Gentleman”? 🙂
Conservatives up by almost 12% from ’06 in only close riding so far.
Dion’s hand picked person no less.
Looks like Quadra will be a squeaker.
Nice.
Very nice.
Yeah, I was watching the voter turnout too.
25% would be incredibly bad, isn’t it?
In Rosedale-Toronto Centre, I think that this is accounted for, however by the large number of non-voting non-english speaking people who live here.
What is the historical turnout in federal elections? In provincial it is typically 60%.
My poor CPC candidate Don Meredith is running fourth at this point, even behind the greens. Sigh. Looks like I am doomed to be represented by a Lib or NDP forever….
Quadra looks do-able for the CPC. But still early.
I would be great to get two out four.
sask is very interesting…quadra would be too much to hope for…no?
Does anyone in the Toronto Center Riding not remember what Bob Rae did to that Province?
I think Seffie will give Bob the Finance portfolio.
Rod
Lori:
Check the polling data from the last two elections, Bill Graham won almost every single poll in the entire riding and all of the polls in Rosedale.
Not that the CPC had any chance in Toronto Centre, but Harper did not help the cause in this by-election by yanking a democratically elected nominee well known and well liked in the riding in favour of a hand-picked nominee kool-aid drinker. That is why the Greens beat the Conservatives in Toronto Centre tonight. Layton is the reason the Greens beat the NDP.
More interesting side note, though: your assumption that working class/Tim Horton’s would not vote Conserservative and that wealthy people would, is a revealing comment though.
As of now: 10:36, in Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River by-election, the Conservative candidate, Rob Clarke, is in the lead:
91/182 polls counted: 2,353 votes/45.2%
Liberal Joan Beatty:
91/182 polls counted: 1,795 votes/34.5%
Deborah Meredith ahead in Quadra 338 t0 307.
Dare to dream.
Conservatives briefly ahead in Vancouver Quadra and the neoRhino party is up to 3 votes.
why anyone would give that man another shot at politics- in ontario no less- is baffling!
Or even *b*ulk of the Vancouver polls … sheesh.
Conservative Deborah Meredith 338 39.8
Liberal Joyce Murray 307 36.2
Still early days yet though 10/237 polls reporting.
LOL Ted. There isn’t really a “Tim Horton’s” constituency in Rosedale Toronto Centre.
There is an upper middle class and rich group, which I would guess vote 50/50 conservative/Lib, with few greens. This group is probably less than
There is gay constituency, which likely votes NDP/Lib
There is an immigrant/student/urban poor constituency which would vote Lib or NDP. With Bob Rae they get the best (or worst) of both worlds.
Here are the 2006 demographics of this riding:
2006 population: 121,407
2001-2006 population change: +6.0%
Visible Minority: 41.3%
Median Household Income: $40,168
Rented: % 72.8%, versus owned: % 27.2%
Vancouer Quadra is really really close, currently two votes separating the Libs and Cons after 13 polls reporting. This one already has “recount” written all over it.
It seems a foregone conclusion that Bob Rae would win, no matter what his record in this province:
1) Canadian wimpism
2) Canadian surrender-monkeyism
3) Canadian MSM cheerleaders
3) Canadian Power Corp/Paul Desmarais Jr.s’ first-choice is Bob Rae, which means he has all of their power/financial resources at his disposal
The funny thing is, people keep writing about how relaxed and personable Bob Rae is. I find him pompous, not comfortable in his skin, self-conscious, and frankly unattractive.
I guess my taste isn’t universal!
You have to step back and laugh at the absurdity of people in Toronto voting for Rae though. It’s quite possible no premier in Canadian history has done as much damage to his province’s economy as Rae did with his socialist nonsense, yet here he is, sweeping the riding and the favoured son to take over from Dion.
Good choice by those in Toronto-Centre… sending a party turncoat who destroyed Ontario’s economy ($1 million an HOUR debt service charge!) to Ottawa with a strong mandate to abstain.
Change #s 1 and 2:
Ontario/Toronto wimpism
Ontario/Toronto surrender monkeyism
Conservative Deborah Meredith 1,007 37.2
Liberal Joyce Murray 1,021 37.7
Back and forth and back and forth
Sask CPC candidate Rob Clarke opening up 800+ lead. It had been cut to 300 or so a short while ago.
What was the MSM spin on the minimum take away for Dion?
Watch the media spin the percentage of the win. In my opinion Dion’s base is not very large. Add up the liberal votes in both TO ridings, out of how many voters. Doesn’t appear Rae willl get the number of votes Graham did.
Sask looks good for us, and BC is putting up a great fight. But, the message seems to be, do not hand pick candidates. As for not allowing the guy on TO to run for them, it is obvious that he had intentions to cross the floor at the first opportunity. That would be worse than kicking him out.
Lets not have any more comments re the low voter turnout in AB.
I think the voters in TO know they will be going to the polls again very soon, with Rae in there so why make the effort twice. Seems lots of liberals abstained today. Following their leader I think.
You have to step back and laugh at the absurdity of people in Toronto voting for Rae though. It’s quite possible no premier in Canadian history has done as much damage to his province’s economy as Rae did with his socialist nonsense, yet here he is, sweeping the riding and the favoured son to take over from Dion.
______________________
It’s not absurd. Any urban poor riding would favour a Lib/NDP candidate. Most who voted likely did not care about “ontario’s economy”, only about their next government cheque or subsidized housing or similar. There is absolutely no self-helping reason for city dwellers who do not own a home to vote for CPC.
And besides, Bob Rae has been throughly rehabilitated by the MSM which loves him so much. The Toronto Star sells more papers here than the Globe and Nat Post and Toronto Sun combined.
I am hopeful, though, that a more enlightened electorate outside of Toronto will be extremely uneasy about Bob Rae as prime minister, a choice we will eventually be faced with.
Clarke has Sask. locked up. 3154 – 2217 (47-33), 115/182 reporting.
Quadra still neck and neck with 35/237 reporting (CPC has about 20 vote lead)
I’m a bit surprised at Vancouver Quadra as I expected it would look like one of the Toronto ridings. One can only hope that maybe some people in Vancouver have had a brief moment of lucidity.
CPC slightly ahead in Quadra:
Vancouver Quadra Last updated: 22:54 ET
Party Candidate Votes % Votes
NDP-New Democratic Party Rebecca Coad 485 13.4
CAP Psamuel Frank 3 0.1
Green Party Dan Grice 442 12.2
Conservative Deborah Meredith 1,356 37.4
Liberal Joyce Murray 1,327 36.6
neorhino.ca John Turner 11 0.3
Total number of valid votes: 3,624
Polls reporting: 38/237 Voter turnout: 3,624 of 83,121 registered electors (4.4%)
Win or lose in Quadra,
looks like the Conservatives picked up about 20 points.
20
points
in a
liberal
stronghold.
(in the purported heartland of “Cadscam”)
Let the libs try and spin that one.
41 polls reporting in vancouver quadra:
conservative: 1477
liberal: 1476
I think the big losers tonight are clearly the NDP.
And even if the Liberals win Quadra in a squeeker, you can’t spin tonight as anything other than a big loss for Dion.
Rae and Findly won on their own and had nothing to do with being Liberals.
So the 2 ridings where the Liberal brand was being voted on the Conservatives will handily win one and either win or lose the other by a small margin.
Liberal regaining lead in Quadra.
i would like to say that Bill graham looks FABULOUS in his shocking pink shirt,but he doesn’t. He actually looks quite gaunt compared to the past. I wonder if he has been ill or if the fact that the age of consent is going to be raised has caused him mental stress.
Bob Rae is crying on CTV right now.
I’d cry too if I just got elected as a liberal.
Losers at this point would definitely seem to be the NDP. Trailing the Greens in Willowdale and neck and neck in Quadra and Centre.
It looks like CTV is still not willing to give Missinnippi to Conservatives yet even after 90 percent of polls reporting.
“It looks like CTV is still not willing to give Missinnippi to Conservatives yet even after 90 percent of polls reporting.”
considering that they did not even feel the need to send a bloody reporter to that riding, is it any surprise?