Good call

With the recent federal election now a distant memory, it’s time for our State Broadcaster to speculate on the results of the October 19, 2015 election:

“The majority government won by Prime Minister Stephen Harper on Monday could be his one and only, according to a focus group of Canadian voters. A collection of factors allowed for the Conservatives to decisively win 167 seats in the spring election…..Those factors may never occur again at the same time to produce the conditions that proved to be the winning one for Harper…”

Election 2011: “It’s The Ground Game, Stupid”

It’s something I wrote early in the campaign when it seemed that no reporter or pundit could open their mouth without the words “Facebook” or “Twitter” popping out. There were even some declaring that as ’06 was the “blog election” and ’08 the “Facebook election”, that 2011 would the known as the “Twitter election”.
I disagreed, mostly because I know more about the role of blogs and the nature of online political discussion – then and now – than pretty much anybody else in the room. On April 6, I shared a few thoughts in an email to a friend in old media;

Unlike most in formal media, my real life has a very small overlap with politicians and journalists, and a huge overlap with people of all political stripes who seldom discuss them. My readers are people with a common interest in politics, as opposed to a common connection to it.
They (my blog readers) don’t use Twitter – they’re even a little turned off when I reference it. None of my personal friends use Twitter. Furthermore, none of the hundreds of people I know in dog sport are on Twitter.
The platform has a place as a fast communication vehicle for those inside the machine – but as a means for parties to engage the average voter? I’d say stop wasting your time.
Facebook has a different problem. The people we connect to most are friends and family. In my case, it’s peers and competitors in the dog world. Political discussion is very, very rare because it invariably causes friction – and Facebook hates friction.
For the average user (who are primarily women, by the way) – Facebook is about positive reinforcement. There may be plenty of FB political groups, but I see precious little cross-pollination of election talk into Facebook proper.
Political junkies will always be junkies, but they’re a minority simply moving around from platform to platform.
There’s way too much coverage of social media, way too little reporters shutting their own mouths for a change and listening to people on the street.

I’ll let you in on a little secret – about the time the punditocracy was authoritatively informing Canadians that high turnout at the advance polls was “a bad sign for the incumbent”, I got word that it was the work of the Conservative ground game, and that the party was pretty confident about how things were going.
I had no way of knowing if that was true until Monday, when SDA readers began reporting light to moderate turnout at your respective polling places. Maybe voters weren’t as motivated to “throw the bums out” as the excited few inside the Twitter echo chamber had willed themselves to believe.
There is no “blog election” or “Facebook election” or “Twitter election” for people who don’t eat, sleep and breathe politics. There’s a reason for that – the majority of Canadians don’t live with their faces glued to a screen. They’re out there driving truck, behind welding masks, hauling kids to hockey practice. They have neither the time or opportunity to follow Andrew Coyne’s multi-tweet essays on parliamentary history, Kady O’Malley’s tortured indifference to Jack Layton’s happy ending, or to engage The Phantom in the comments section at SDA.
When it comes to the mechanics of winning elections, it’s the ground game, stupid. And it will always be the ground game.
At any rate, Margaret Wente has written a pretty good column that ties up the loose ends, if you’re interested.

Bring me the head of Osama bin Laden

It appears that is all that might just satisfy Mad Tom Mulcair, the second most important person in Canada’s new parliamentary Official Opposition. A great party or what?

Conspiracy theory: NDP deputy leader Mulcair doubts U.S. has bin Laden photos

More here, will try to get the video:

mulcair.jpg
NDP deputy leader Thomas Mulcair speaks to reporters during a post-election news conference in Montreal, May 3, 2011, as newly-elected NDP MPs look on. Mulcair says he doesn’t believe photos exist of Osama bin Laden’s body. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes)

Update: Video is here, looney tunes for sure. A must-watch for those concerned with cadavers. “…[An] insult to everyone’s intelligence…” according to new Conservative MP Chris Alexander.
Predate: Alfredo Garcia.

Hunting for Horrible Heather…

…with both barrels. Ms Mallick:

Canada’s cold new dawn
Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper is our version of George W Bush, minus the warmth and intellect
heather.jpg
…
What happens now is the full-scale Americanisation of Canada…
The Evangelist Christian right is at the heart of Harper’s Conservative party, and after years of being shushed, it will now demand an end to a number of things, including abortion rights. Canada has no law against abortions, and they are available free.
Corporate taxes will be cut almost immediately, Bush-style. Political financing laws will change – parties now get money for each vote – but this will end under the Conservatives, who will have a huge advantage in terms of the amount they can solicit in corporate donations [which are now illegal; the Conservatives have in fact no plan to change this, just to force parties to raise money from their own supporters].
Harper himself is a famously strange man…


Jonathan Kay
:

…an open letter to The Guardian about Heather Mallick
…a March 28 Toronto Star Mallick column claimed that Harper’s government is planning to “hunt down its enemies” in a manner that “verges on the Stalinist.” She also claimed — without any evidence — that Harper would eliminate all “government safety standards for food and medicine”; that Harper wants to put “guns on the street,” and institute a “system of academic McCarthyism.” Mallick’s May 3 Guardian column (“Canada’s cold new dawn”) is written in this same spirit — particularly the last three paragraphs, which bear no resemblance to reality — and also reflect Mallick’s odd and disturbing habit of casting hateful references on those who don’t happen to live in large coastal cities.
This is part of a trend, because many parts of Mallick’s Guardian columns are essentially interchangeable slurs against what she insists, without any evidence, is a racist, misogynistic Canadian government populated by, and for, fat individuals who are simpletons because they don’t live in Toronto…
…Canadian progressives also have been outraged by Mallick — because of the consistently hateful attitudes she has exhibited toward people who are poor or come from rural backgrounds. In 2008, for instance, she wrote a CBC column analyzing the popularity of Sarah Palin among “white trash” (her words) voters: “Palin has a toned-down version of the porn actress look favoured by this decade’s woman … Bristol has what is known in Britain as the look of the teen mum, the ‘pramface.’ Husband Todd looks like a roughneck; Track, heading off to Iraq, appears terrified. They claim to be family obsessed while being studiously terrible at parenting. What normal father would want Levi ‘I’m a fuckin’ redneck’ Johnson prodding his daughter?”..

We Don’t Need No Stinking Giant Fans

Ed Driscoll;

Today in Scotland, as the Great Recession rolls on, and as newly reprimitivized “wind farms” replace more tried and true — and apparently predictable – methods of electricity generation, history rhymes rather nicely. The BBC reports, “Six Scottish windfarms were paid up to £300,000 to stop producing energy, it has emerged.

Unfortunately, Scotland is cut off from the western world that there’s virtually no chance that details of this most recent wind farm insanity will find its way to our own provincial policy makers.
Related waste.

CWB: All Over But The Crying

And there will be plenty of that. CWB Monitor;

Last night, in the federal election, 67% of the rural voters in the CWB Designated Area favoured the Conservatives whose platform included giving farmers the right to choose who they sell wheat and barley to (in other words, making use of the CWB voluntary by removing the single desk monopoly). Provincially, Conservatives won handily in all three prairie provinces; 70% in Manitoba, 57% in Saskatchewan and 76% in Alberta. By all accounts, a resounding endorsement of the Conservative platform. Even though the other federal parties argue that, because the Conservatives have only 40% of the National popular vote, 60% voted “against” Harper and his Conservatives, that can’t be said in the CWB designated area. With 67% of the rural vote, it can be said that only 33% don’t agree with the Conservative platform.

Vitruvius’s Experimental Election Predictor

For the first time since confederation, the Liberal Party of Canada is neither Her Majesty’s Government nor Her Loyal Opposition. The Bloc Québécois have been nearly wiped out. The leaders of both those parties lost their seats. The New Democratic Party is for the first time Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, but with more than half the NDP seats in Quebec, and 77% of Quebec’s seats NDP, the NDP & Quebec are now stuck with each other.

Clearly it’s been an unusual election; that is also reflected in Ve: The Right Honourable Stephen Harper, Prime Minister and leader of Her Majesty’s Government, has achieved a majority of 167 seats with a Ve of 6.3, one point below (sic) his 2008 minority of 143 seats with a Ve of 7.3. The projected seat range for Ve = 6.3 was 136 to 164, but Mr. Harper bettered that by three, as shown by the large blue dot, so next time that boundary will have to move slightly.

The pollsters final results came in at ΣVe/n = 4.81, ca. 1½ points below the final election value (but they would have been worse if not for the COMPAS result). They were ca. two points low in 2008, yet ca. two points high in 2004 and 2006. I have updated the images and text in my Vitruvius’s Experimental Election Predictor essay to reflect these excellent results.

So as the 2011 Election sets slowly in the west, this is Vitruvius, his
election predictor, and Don Ho saying: Thanks for hosting us, Kate.

The Indifferent Pollster

Frank Graves of EKOS Research, whose last poll underestimated the Conservatives’ popular support by a whopping 5.6 percent:

“We were almost spot on about the popular vote, but where we really screwed up was with the Tory majority. We need to go back and do some work to find out what went wrong, but nobody has the resources to do this. This is done on a shoestring budget, and while we do our best to try and understand our failures it requires analysis and time and nobody is really interested in that.”

Perhaps EKOS should print that on their business cards.

I Miss W

Reaping the benefits of the Bush War For Oil: is there nothing that Obama can’t do?

“Abu Ahmad al-Kuwaiti was a senior al-Qaeda facilitator and subordinate of [Khalid Sheikh Mohammed]. Al-Kuwaiti worked in the al-Qaeda media house operated by [Khalid Sheikh Mohammed] in Kandahar and served as a courier.”
The file suggests that the courier’s identity was provided to the US by another key source, the al-Qaida facilitator Hassan Ghul, who was captured in Iraq in 2004 and interrogated by the CIA.

The First American Prime Minister That Might Have Been

Now is the time at SDA when we told you so!
Michael Ignatieff, May 2nd…

“We have to be big enough, courageous enough, united enough as a party to look at ourselves in the mirror” and learn the lessons of what the Canadian people told them with the election results, he said.
He also said he would be around to study those lessons.
“I will serve as long as the party wants to ask me to serve and not a day longer,” Ignatieff said. “I’m willing to do that work of renewal, reform and growth.”

Michael Ignatieff, May 3rd…

“Sorry – just visiting!”

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