Category: It’s Probably Nothing

Seismic Shifts

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Despite all the hoopla about debt-driven GDP growth as a sign of a booming economy, the real economy apparently didn’t get that memo from the Keynesians. Shrinking business investment means less demand for basic commodities like oil.

They were about to get some life-changing news. Their employer, a major oil producer almost as old as Canada, was going to reveal a dramatic shift in strategy. Imperial would be selling its sprawling headquarters in Calgary, cutting hundreds of jobs and potentially outsourcing many of those positions overseas.

One worker said they had suspected something was up, but nothing that seismic.

Get Ready for the Firehose of Prosperity…

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Canada to avoid recession in 2025; economist predicts ‘firehose of monetary and fiscal policy support’ https://t.co/0j2aZsF08X

 

“After a steep decline, we’re coming back a little bit,” Desjardins told Yahoo Finance Canada in an interview. “We’re in this period of slow growth, just treading water.”…

“While not an economic rebound to write home about, it does suggest that a 2025 recession in Canada isn’t a foregone conclusion,” he wrote in a report earlier this month. “The Canadian economy isn’t out of the woods yet.”

The federal government is due to release its fall budget in November. Prime Minister Mark Carney has said it will feature “the biggest investment in this country’s future in a generation.”

“A leak from a senior official [suggests] that the Government of Canada’s deficit could reach $100 billion this year when the long‑overdue federal budget is released on November 4,” Bartlett wrote.

Maybe it’s tent sales that will bring Canada out of this recession?

That Sinking Feeling

Gradually Then Suddenly Great Moments In Socialism It's Probably Nothing nannystate New Governor 9 Comments

Not to worry. I’m sure this thing will pay for itself.

Canada recorded a slightly higher C$7.79 billion ($5.59 billion) budget deficit for the first four months of the 2025/26 fiscal year as government expenditures grew faster than revenues, the finance ministry said on Friday.

By comparison, the deficit in the same period a year earlier had been C$7.30 billion, it said in a statement.

 

The Cheque Is In The Mail

Canada’s Bolsheviks entitlement generation Gradually Then Suddenly nannystate 33 Comments

Our family farm used to have mail delivery to the top of our lane but that was discontinued sometime in the early 1960s. After that, we picked up our mail in a small town. In 1970, that post office closed and we used a community mailbox which is still in service to this day. Miraculously, the sky didn’t fall.

The Canadian Union of Postal Workers went on strike Thursday after the government announced door-to-door mail delivery would end for nearly all households within the next decade.

Canada Post said the strike will mean mail and parcels will not be processed or delivered for the duration of the strike and no new items will be accepted.

 

Barista Blues

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Here’s more evidence that the marginal consumer is finally saying no to $6 lattes.

The Seattle coffee giant will notify employees whose positions are being eliminated early Friday and said that it plans to close an undetermined number of stores in North America in the coming days.

A review of Starbucks locations revealed that many are falling short of financial performance targets or are failing to create the environment customers expect, according to a letter sent by Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol on Thursday.

It’s Probably Nothing

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Melinda, via email – Something I now have on my radar, due to the high % of Toronto residents now on the dole.

Going For Broke

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When the mainstream financial media starts to use the terms “alarm” and “collapse” in the same sentence, it’s probably too late to do anything about it.

The report from University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative compares housing starts and sales in 34 municipalities across the Greater Toronto Area and neighbouring Southern Ontario cities for the first six months of 2025 with the same period from 2021–2024. It found starts are down 40 per cent relative to that four-year average, with pre-construction condo sales plunging 89 per cent and other homes 70 per cent.

 

Golden Era?

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The mainstream financial media is looking at this the wrong way. It’s not gold that’s going up, but rather the dollar that is going down. For the most part, all the derivative currencies are doing even worse. The main reason is not imminent hyperinflation but rather fear of default as the fiat debt burden continues to rise exponentially.

Gold futures surged to around $3,750, while bullion for immediate delivery traded above $3,700 per ounce.

Luxury Items

Gradually Then Suddenly Great Reset It's Probably Nothing 20 Comments

The jump to 15% minimum suggested tips is probably playing a role, but even without that the restaurant industry is struggling with the pandemic hangover and a marginal consumer who cannot afford to eat out.

Three in four Canadians are eating out less, often because of the high cost of living, a Restaurants Canada report published Monday found. That share is even higher among those aged 18 to 34 at 81 per cent.

Restaurants Canada chief executive Kelly Higginson said it’s an “alarming” trend for the foodservice industry.

Repeat Offenders

Cold Dead Hands Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing 6 Comments

It’s not like this incident happened in the core area of Winnipeg, but rather a quiet suburban neighborhood. Any bets on how long it will be until this guy is back on the street?

A 23-year-old man with a lengthy rap sheet is accused of barging into a northwest Winnipeg home Monday evening and randomly assaulting two elderly residents as they relaxed in their living room.

George has numerous prior convictions for possessing weapons and breaching court orders. He’s also been convicted of uttering threats, obstructing a police officer and assaulting an officer. George was barred from owning weapons for life after pleading guilty in August 2024 to several firearms possession offences he committed in November 2023.

It’s Probably Nothing

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Kevin Klein- Organized crime alleged in trucking industry tied to labour, immigration abuse

Industry executives are clear in how they describe the nature of what is unfolding. “If this were the United States, it would be a racketeering case,” one said. “This is a criminal enterprise, not paperwork sloppiness.” They argue that what may appear at first glance as tax avoidance is, in reality, organized crime: immigration fraud, human exploitation, money laundering, and a deliberate effort to evade the law.

Racing To Zero

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Why is it that no one in the mainstream financial media ever asks, “Whatever happened to higher for longer?”

The Bank of Canada reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, a move observers had almost universally expected amid various signs of economic weakness.

The Bank cited the “weakening economy and less upside risk to inflation” in its decision to cut.

 

Headed For A Bust?

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Inquiring minds want to know: can the Bank of Canada cut interest rates quickly enough to avoid a collapse of the housing market?

Butler says clients who locked in around 1.7 per cent in 2020 and 2021 are now renewing closer to four per cent, pushing payments up 20 to 25 per cent.

Even if the BoC cuts this week, affordability challenges will persist. “You cannot solve something that has taken 20, 30 years to build up in five minutes,” Tal said.

Same As The Old Boss

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing New Governor 14 Comments

The list of what the Liberals consider to be “infrastructure” projects continues to boggle the mind. The main criteria apparently is that they be money-losing boondoggles.

Some of the projects identified for further development include enhancements to the Port of Churchill in Manitoba, a high-speed rail line between Toronto and Québec City, a 50-gigawatt wind energy project in Nova Scotia and an Alberta-based carbon capture and storage project.

 

Featured Comment

It's Probably Nothing 14 Comments

Kid Shilleen;

I recently had an interesting encounter with a “Dragonfly” delivery guy that pegged my paronoia meter. I was washing my car and was expecting an Amazon delivery. When he came he delivered the package then turned his attention to the car and then to the neighbourhood, asking and the questions seemed abnormal, values of not only my car but of those of my neighbors and the houses. At the time I thought it was odd but I moved on.

Later I began to think this would be a perfect means to scout for vehicles, as there are literally hundreds of “new” Canadians running around in delivery vans in every community abling them to pass this intelligence back to the “theft” ring.

Man…..I’m losing it…..or maybe just my spidy sense is tingling

The R Word

Gradually Then Suddenly It's Probably Nothing New Governor 22 Comments

So the mainstream financial media is finally waking up to what most of us on SDA acknowledged long ago.

The job market is exhibiting some other recessionary characteristics, too. Desjardins Economics, in a report last Thursday, said the current youth unemployment rate “is now at a level more commonly seen during a recession.”

The unemployment rate for those aged 15 to 24 in August was 14.5 per cent, according to Statistics Canada, compared to nine per cent in July 2022.

Elbows Way Down!

Gradually Then Suddenly Great Moments In Socialism It's Probably Nothing New Governor 26 Comments

Is rising unemployment part of Canadian exceptionalism too? I’m sure this can all be fixed with zero percent interest rates in any case.

Canada’s labour market shed a net 65,500 jobs in August and the unemployment rate jumped to 7.1 per cent, according to Statistics Canada data released on Friday.

The unemployment rate is now at its highest point outside of the pandemic since May 2016, and has risen 0.5 percentage points since the start of this year.

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