Wuhan Flu: Prior Infection vs Vaccination

Sebastian Rushworth MD;

So, what we really need is a study that looks at the degree to which people actually get re-infected, not more studies that look at antibodies. Once we have that, we can do a comparison with the results of the vaccine trials, and then we will finally have a reasonably good estimate of whether prior infection or vaccination provides a higher level of immunity, or if they are equivalent. That is now exactly what we have, thanks to a study that was recently published in The Lancet.

This was a cohort study carried out in the UK that recruited 25,661 NHS hospital workers and then followed them for an average seven months. The study was funded by the UK government. Participants were divided in to two cohorts, a covid positive cohort and a covid negative cohort. The purpose of the study was to see what proportion of people in each cohort went on to develop covid-19. The data were collected during the second half of 2020.

Everyone who had or had previously had a positive antibody test or PCR test for covid-19 at the beginning of the study was placed in to the covid positive cohort, and everyone else was placed in to the covid negative cohort. The covid positive cohort contained 8,278 participants at the beginning of the study, while the covid negative cohort contained 17,383.

[…]

Over the course of 2,047,113 days of follow-up in the covid positive group, there were 78 cases of symptomatic covid-19 (by which we mean a positive test + at least one symptom).

Over the course of 2,971,436 days of follow-up in the covid negative group, there were 1,369 cases of symptomatic covid-19.

This works out to a relative risk reduction 0f 92%. For comparison, the Pfizer vaccine trial reported a reduction of 95%, the Moderna trial reported an reduction of 94%, the Astra-Zeneca trial reported a reduction of 70%, and the Johnson&Johnson trial reported a reduction of 67%.

So, on the face of it, prior infection is equivalent to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in terms of the level of protection offered, and much better than the Astra-Zeneca vaccine and J&J vaccine. In light of this, it seems completely unnecessary for people who have had covid to get the vaccine. In fact, if the goal of governments is to get their populations to herd immunity as quickly as possible, it would make more sense to tell people who have had confirmed covid-19 that they don’t need to get vaccinated. Vaccinating people who have already had covid-19 means delaying vaccination of people who haven’t had it, which means delaying the onset of herd immunity.

But read it all.

60 Replies to “Wuhan Flu: Prior Infection vs Vaccination”

      1. Well, it should be expected Kate.
        All of immunology is based upon the idea that the body generates defensive antibodies when invaded by a virus.
        Having been invaded once, the immune system is primed to recognize the same thing in the future and react more rapidly before it can become established.

        Vaccines are based upon exposing people to “crippled” versions of the same virus. Enough to generate an immune response, but not enough to do any real damage. The same “priming” effect takes place.

        If the virus causing COVID-19 works like any other, the same vaccination principles should apply.
        So it is expected that having (and surviving) COVID-19 and receiving a vaccination (if it actually works) should have equivalent results as far as immunity goes.

        The newer mRNA based vaccines still really work the same way. They are just based upon a better understanding of what is triggering the immune response to the virus, and a more efficient and faster method of creating the vaccine and delivering it.

        What I find more than a little surprising is the slow rate of mutation of the virus, and the relatively close relatives to the original that mutation causes. Compare to other corona viruses, best example being flu, and it becomes obvious that the mutation rate is slow. Corona viruses, by their very nature, will mutate very rapidly. This one, so far, isn’t doing that. To me, a pointer to a maybe unnatural origin. But that is just me…

        1. Flu is not a corona virus. The common cold is a corona virus. Corona viruses mutate much more slowly than do flu viruses.

          1. Yes. I know that … no idea why I typed “flu”.
            That is exactly right, and because it mutates so rapidly, why there is no effective vaccine for the common cold, and no real prospect of there being one.

        2. You’re missing one very important and critical point. When you have the infection or used a whole killed of attenuated virus, your immune system is exposed to multiple antigenic signals and acquires multiple ways to detect and destroy the invader. The mRNA vaccines DO NOT work the same way. The body is exposed to only part of the spike protein and nothing else. We already see viruses that mutated to create more easily spread variants because only the mutants that could get around lockdowns, masks and social distancing could spread. Given how viruses mutate it is only a matter of time before the virus creates a mutant that evades the vaccine’s single signal. It probably already has. Then we’ll need a new vaccine in short order which I’m sure Pfizer and company will be happy to produce for us, ad infinitum.

      2. no real surprise, thats why I have booked a serology test. I want to know my numbers. If I ever do get a vaccine I will have another serology test done to get an update.

  1. Its high time we stop calling this corona virus a corona virus….cause its just another corona virus right..??

    As soon as I hear COVID…one would expect shivers to run down ones spine…… So maybe we should collectively say: UP YOURS with your BS nomenclature change and call a spade a spade eh..??

    Under 75.?? Got the sniffles..? You have a Cold… got a fever.? yep, you’ve got the Flu. Homemade Chicken soup, lots of bed rest with your head elevated, take your vitamins, Tylenol cold meds and in 3-4 days you’ll be just fine.

    End of effin story.

    Until I hear Govt – MSM talk of Vitamin D & B1.??
    Until I hear Govt – MSM state PCR is useless.??
    Until I hear Govt – MSM state that Mask Wearing has ZERO Efficacy an in fact is harmfull of * in it’s self.??
    Until I hear Govt – MSM state that Lockdowns have Not worked
    Until I hear Govt – MSM state that A: stated “Vaccines” will NOT Immunize you & B: are unsafe

    I will continue to State this has been a grand NAZI PSY OP on a Planetary scale.

    1. Another for your ‘list’.
      Until I hear that Govt is blocking all flights from hot spot areas of the world especially from areas where the damn virus originated.

    2. steakman, I would comment on the article but hey, nobody gives damn about truth.

  2. if they are using people who had false positives it is likely when they say people get re-infected it is an error caused by a false positive.

    theories built on sand make poor foundations.

    1. I have a similar thought about asymptomatic cases. Do they exist because of false positives?

        1. Depends on whether you’re using the terms “disease” and “COVID-19” technically or colloquially.

          Colloquially, yes, asymptomatic carriers of a disease still “have” the disease. Just ask Mary Mallon.

          1. No, they may have the virus, but not the disease that the virus can cause.

            Important distinction.

            SARS cov2 is the virus, COVID 19 is the disease caused by the virus.

          2. The distinction between the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 disease is a valid one, but it’s separate from your original question, which conflates “symptoms of disease” with “presence of disease” (which is the common colloquial use of the term).

            Technically, a disease is any negative deviation from the normal function or structure of any or all parts of an organism. Outward bodily symptoms—pain, fever, running nose, etc—may occur, may even be typical, but they are not strictly speaking a necessary part of a disease condition.

            SARS-Cov-2 hijacking your cells to replicate itself? By definition, that’s a deviation from the normal structure and function of that cell = disease. Maybe your immune system fights it off without producing symptoms, or maybe your body produces them. Either way, at the cellular level, you have COVID-19.

            A similar parallel is cancers. Sadly, many people go years with a malignant cancer growing inside them, doing all kinds of damage at the cellular level, without experiencing outward symptoms. They don’t “get” cancer only after symptoms show up.

  3. Very interesting! Was sick as ever in 2018, this was out before they called it. No shot for moi, thanks.

    P.S. it hung around awhile–did all that off the shelf stuff, Dr Steakman!

    1. Nancy, it’s interesting you should say that. In December 2019 – before Covid, or so they say – my wife and I were suddenly hit by virulent flu-like symptoms. Those symptoms lasted less than a week and we seemingly recovered. Only problem, I lost my sense of smell, we both suffered from fatigue and a host of other after-effects. I recently questioned my doctor and he suspects (as we do) that it was Covid. When I asked for a test to see if I had had Covid, I was told that was not a test he could order up! How stupid is that?

      1. I would wonder about that too. I never asked my Doc for a covid test for fear of being entered into a database. In your case, maybe there were no tests yet available, possibly?

        My bout with flu took place around snowy February 2018, if I remember correctly, all I wanted was sleep or rest. The worse symptoms were congestion and cough, the latter hard to get rid of for weeks. Besides that, the most uncomfortable part was the very heavy feeling in the lungs. It frightened me. I got desperate and actually used smelly “Vicks-Vapo Rub.” along with the other off the shelf. A chaffed, red nose from blowing out and using 3 large boxes of tissues was the least of it. All remedies seemed to help, thankfully. Hadn’t had a flu like that in years, nor since.

        1. Nancy, somehow, no one clued into the possibility of our ‘flu’ actually being Covid until a few months ago. And my request for a test was made last month (!) And like you, I rarely get sick, so this episode was a rare event. That I can’t get an antibody test is disconcerting.

          1. I read that there are, in fact, antibody tests…
            there are so many websites re: this topic, I got lost reading some of them, but got no definitive answers as to their reliability. Seems a blood test would’ve had to have been taken about 10 to 18 days after the end of the flu. So, too late for our cases, it seems. Immunity doesn’t last forever, it seems. Here’s a more recent website on the topic, check the bottom of the page, re “inconclusive results”:

            https://www.goodrx.com/treatment/coronavirus-test

            P.S.
            Stay healthy, pal!

      2. He could have ordered a blood test to check for antibodies, which you’d have if you had Covid. I had such a test, but it turned out I didn’t have Vivid.

    2. One of my sons had a similar experience early January 2020 with a direct connection to China. He was playing poker in a casino and the young man sitting next to him had just returned from China after the Christmas break in order to get back to school. He complained of not feeling well. A few days later my son came down with the worst flu he ever had, totally wiped him out for a full week and the cough was awful. Manitoba had a really bad flu season in 2020.

  4. I’d prefer we start by confirming test accuracy by following up positive PCR tests with antibody tests a few weeks later. And secondly, I’d like to the above infection analysis repeated when determining cohorts by antibody test results only. Once antibody test accuracy is established of course.

  5. We have already followed this highly logical advice. Once my wife and I had this thing in the fall, we knew that we were low risk. It affected her more than it did me, she having lung issues for about a week, whereas I had practically no symptoms. We didn’t get tested because why bother? The test is unreliable. A person at my place of work got tested, and had to wait for the results before returning to work, even though the result was negative. It would be pointless for me to get the vaccine, as I am such a low risk, so it denies a vaccine from a person who truly needs it. I used the same logic to avoid a test as well. The numbers are all skewed for political purposes anyway, so why further the agenda with more unnecessary data?
    Last summer some people told a story of a couple of friends who were travelling across state lines. they stopped at a border where they were supposed to be tested. Leaving there names and addresses with the officials, they were told that the wait for the test may be hours. So they left right then. Later they receive letters in the mail saying that they tested positive, and to self quarantine etc. This after there had been no test whatsoever.

    1. The Mainstream media monster is changing their stories and victims to scare as they move in for the kill of getting everyone taking this miracle experiment that they lie calling it a vaccination.
      Stay away, stay far away…

    2. @greyone, while skipping the vaccine now does makes sense for you and your wife, do consider still getting a shot after everyone else has received one.

      It’s still unknown how long immunity response lasts, whether acquired through natural infection or vaccination. If you contracted COVID in the fall, you may be in line for a booster, as you’ll be starting to get close to the one-year mark. Also, the variants circulating now are (and the ones 6 months from now will also be) different from the variants circulating back then, so it’s also unclear how effective your current natural immunity will be.

      Of course, immunity could very well remain effective and last longer, who knows. Plenty of research happening now to study how long immunity lasts, so answers will be clearly soon.

      1. So using that logic, we will need annual booster ” vaccine ” shots for as long as the variants change and Sars Cov2 mutates as most flu viruses do.
        So this annual booster shot thing could last a lifetime.

        Sorry , no freaking way am I going to take a shot of that Franken goo for the rest of my life, that is absurd in the extreme.
        I have never seen a virus in history that needs that kind attention.

        TPTB can go get bent.

          1. Andi in all.my years, I only took that Flu Shot ONCE. For the next 4 months I wasn’t quite sick…?? But felt like crap…nothing you could put your finger on mine you, Just listless and low energy.

            Told my doc, one who was in my opinion, getting nicely remunerated for said shots, and she came unglued..freaking out in the exam room saying “there is no way you can get sick”… her hysterical reaction blew me away..!!

            I flat out refuse any So called “vaccine” for a virus group (Corona), that mutates as often as I change my underwear.
            NOT LOGICAL & Total BS…+ it’s seemingly 100% designed to maximise profitability….. & Nothing else.

            The latest crop from Pfizer, Moderna, J & J, AZ no different….money making faux garbage.

            With the added “benefit” you potentially take your life in yer hands

      2. Well with SARS1 and MERS immunity lasts at least 17 years (which is as long as has been tested) and is assumed to be lifelong. Personally, I would not take the risk of the vaccine if I had already had the infection. To each their own.

  6. Client had their business shut down by the city for 2 weeks after an employee tested positive. All the other employees were then forced to take the test and all tested negative. 2 weeks later, the original positive tested negative. So she was a false positive and the client lost not only 2 weeks of revenues but likely some new business and the employees also lost wages. This is so stupid.

    1. I really do not understand why they have not reduced the cycles on those PCR tests. I believe they are still at 40 where there is up to 70% false positives. I have no confidence in Canada’s stats on ” cases”.

      1. I agree there are a lot of false positives. My son-in-law got a positive test. My daughter was sick too at the same time. She was negative. She was told to self isolate. She just laughed, They’d had sex the night before. She was exposed. They both got better and that was that. But tell me how could both of them be sick at the same time and one test positive and one negative?

  7. Numerous flaws already exist and I havent read the link:

    1) the efficacy numbers dont directly compare. They were done at different times (the Pfizer and Moderna stydies were before varients) and in different countries. The numbers are two different answers to two different questions.

    2) while it is excellent news that Covid positive people have a much lower chance of getting it, they can still get it. Theres also no numbers for covid positive AND vaccine. It could be anywhere from 90% to 100%.

    That being said, if I w as previously Covid positive I would probably wait while before getting the vaccine.

  8. DCH…..you mean everyone in the Lie-beral party donated their blood etc to Aztra-Zeneca vaccine! Har!

  9. My wife and I are 70 and 71 and both recovered covid and symptoms which I would describe as cold like. She is in stage 4 lung cancer, having undergone more than two years of chemo, radiation and immunotherapy. She describes the worst symptom a losing her senses of smell and taste, though they are now returning. Perhaps neither of us are characteristic of ‘covid sufferers’, but we have four friends, also in their 70’s who experienced the same mild symptoms after testing positive.

    We continue getting mixed messaging from our respective GP’s: “We don’t know the effectiveness of the vaccines”, “We don’t know how long you’ll have immunity”, “We don’t know, but we think the shot may boost your natural anti-bodies” etc.

    The weird thing for me is that many people whom I know and (generally) respect, are fixated on the word ‘could’ – as in, you still ‘could’ become re-infected due to variants. Therefore, their expectation is that I should remain masked and avoid un-necessary contact with others, including family members. My response is that if you remain frightened by both the unvaccinated and the vaccinated/recovered, you should stay home and avoid contact with us as we seize the freedoms “the science” supports. They are irrational in believing that risk must be zero or gov’t mandated restrictions are reasonable and must be obeyed.

    I’ve mentioned previously that I am now entering public spaces and retail outlets unmasked. Thus far I have been unchallenged, but I’ve prepared small cards stating that I am not a risk to them, nor they a risk to me and a one line statement from the Charter quoting the ‘demonstrably justified’ wording of Sec. 1. It’s then up to them to offer me a demonstrably justified reason for any demand for masking. “Because the gov’t says so” isn’t going to cut it.

    1. COVID raced through our local nursing home. 34 patients exposed. 24 got sick. 4 died. The 4 that died were already at death’s door. One of them had been beaten and was in a semi coma with severe brain damage and had a DNR so they didn’t even try to save him. One was in her late 90s and totally bedridden. One had severe end stage Alzheimers. The fourth one had type 2 diabetes, extreme obesity and metabolic syndrome along with a failing heart and kidneys and wasn’t expected to be around much longer. The other 18 recovered completely.

  10. *
    “just another corona virus right?”

    if the mean age of kungflu fatalities is
    80+ years
    … which actually exceeds the
    statistical life expectancy in north
    america… is it really a pandemic in the
    sense of the 1918 flu?

    show me the hospital corridors stacked
    with decaying bodies.

    read the book “flu” by gina kolata.

    *

  11. Having had a mild case in December, that waned in January, I already doubted having a vaccine now would benefit me. So I hope this study is accurate.
    Give my shots to Fidel’s son and his “wife,” Sophie.

  12. Well, stage 4 kidney cancer here. Never been tested, never encouraged to get tested by my oncologist, or other doctors, not been sick, avoided “flu” for 20 years (lucky, you tell me), while better half have come down with some awful crap in the interim. Wuflu is 98-99% recoverable unless comorbidities. Just like the flu.
    Not getting the shot. Period. Cancer will kill me first.
    It came from Wuhan, Chinah. Make the CCP own up to it. Don’t have any truck, nor trade with them. Ostracize them over here. They take offense…they can go home if they don’t like it. Adolf gets his snoot out of alignment over it here, he can move to Chinah, too plus the rest of the LPOC and their NDP/GREEN pals.
    PS: Trudy might be all ga ga over Chinah, but Canadians have the final say on policy and purchasing power. Especially purchasing power. Check your labels and make inquiries as to why only Chinah on the store shelves.
    Case in point…I buy garlic, but not Chinese sourced or labelled. Seeya Loblaws. I leave it on the shelf. At the market, Hutterite, or grocery stores stocking US grown. Somehow Canadians can’t grow garlic? Bullsip. There’s fields of it grown in the Okanagan and right here in Alberta.

  13. Just to add to the personal “covid”-related experiences…My wife and I became ill in March 2020. Neither of us had had so much as the sniffles for well over a decade prior. Symptoms began with unbelievably runny noses (the proverbial “tap”). That lasted 2 days. Next was two days of severe sneezing of the whip-lash inducing rib-cracking variety. Then 3 days of nasal congestion followed by about a week of chills and fatigue. I lost my sense of taste and developed a rash on the legs. I also had bouts of moderate headaches (something I never otherwise get). We both ended up with a dry cough which lasted almost 3 weeks. So, well over a month of varying symptoms of generally moderate severity. We didn’t get tested – didn’t seem necessary (and wasn’t widely available at the time).

    1. That is what I figured they must have meant as well. But that raised a new question: Why the disparity in the number of follow-up days for the two groups?

      When you divide the number of follow-up days for the positive cohort by the number of participants in that cohort, you get about 247 days of follow-up per person. Dividing the number of follow-up days for the negative cohort by the number of participants in that group yields only about 171 days per person. Why the difference? How many participants dropped out of each group during the course of the study?

  14. This study is FUBARed and should never have been published.
    Cut/Paste
    “Could vaccination cause me to test positive for Covid-19?
    In the days and weeks after Covid-19 vaccines became available, healthcare professionals observed that some vaccinated individuals tested positive by both PCR and rapid antigen tests.”

    There is no vaccine specification

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