The Government Of Canada’s Department Of Wrong

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I’m getting pretty sick of this. The temperature rose to about -15 this afternoon, and then plummeted to the -25C we’re at currently. Yet, Environment Canada still forecasts a ‘low’ tonight a full degree warmer.

This isn’t an outlier. Every day for three weeks running Environment Canada has forecast a nightly low that’s well short of the actual low – followed by forecast highs that are seldom met. In short, our actual temperatures in central Saskatchewan are consistently running 2 to 4 degrees colder than EC forecasts.

I don’t understand how they can be this wrong, day after day after day, without adjusting their models to correct for it. Is it just incompetence — or are they now manipulating temperature data in real time?

You figure it out. I can’t.

Update: Clive, in the comments;

Sidenote…and geek warning. ☺ Agr Canada (CDA) has a large research station on the edge of the city. They boast a 100+ year weather record at their station. Unfortunately the temperature is tainted by heat from the city (UHI) which is now just 400 m away. The airport station is about 5 km away and another accredited station is about 3 km SE out of CDA and away from the city. I’ve dug into the historical temperature data and compared the rural airport temps with the now-near-urban CDA station. Between 1938 and 2007, the CDA mean annual temp increased 1.5C° more then the rural airport temps. I ran a regression analysis of the increase against the population growth in Lethbridge. The R squared value (geek stuff) was 0.92. Meaning? The CDA temp increases were in lock step with the population growth of Lethbridge that has crept closer and closer to CDA. The city grows and in the eyes of Agr Canada staff, global warming is rampant because they are measuring heated city air. Ooops. BTW, sometimes the CDA temps are as much as 5 degrees above the other two nearby stations. Not kidding.

It’s currently 11:30am and the current temperature at Rosetown is -26C. Nonetheless, Environment Canada “hourly” forecast states it’ll be -15C by noon.

Addendum: Shortly after I published the original post, Environment Canada amended their nighttime low forecast to -26C. It hit -33C.

46 Replies to “The Government Of Canada’s Department Of Wrong”

  2. I have observed the same with numbers from the weather network. Predicted temperatures are routinely higher than what we actually hit. Coincidentally, or maybe not, often tipping them above the “average” for that week.

    Lately they’ve removed all historical data for our area and stopped showing daily records. It’s as if they are trying to hide something.

  3. I have seen the current temperature reading 10 degrees colder than the current range for the day, always colder. The next day the low temperature is from their projected range, not reading.

  4. They (weather networks) predicted western Canada would have a winter warmer than normal. HA! And the Grt Lks region would be colder than normal. I think everwhere in Canada has had a cold winter. Do they ever compare what actually happened with their forecasts? Seldom, and if they do, only briefly. Yet they still blather on how climate change is going to do us all in. Warmer! More storms! More intensive storms! Hotter! More droughts! Periods of unbelievable cold! More fires! It’s relentless. Makes me want to puke.

  5. Fake weather, as usual. Piss on their algorithms already! Go outside and witness the same thing under the sun, and so it ever shall be, ye blinded mortals, etc…

  6. I wouldn’t get too paranoid about hidden motives, weather forecasts are made mostly by reading off numerical weather guidance from models and that tends to run a little warmer than most places actually record during some weather patterns. Some of your more skilled private or local TV mets (in the U.S. in particular) have a bit more feel for local conditions and tend to be more accurate on these sorts of forecasts. Forecasters tend to notice errors in “significant weather” (like snow, fog, freezing rain etc) a lot more quickly than they pick up on five degree temperature errors especially if they are making numerous regional forecasts for places they don’t live in.

    This pattern is unusually cold for late February, I think it’s the coldest winter month since January 1979 where I live (in the Kootenays).

    In Seattle, it has been so cold and snowy that people are actually making coffee at home !!

  7. Wait until it is summer, and you see a week of rain coming….check the last day….it always has full sun on the final day….

    They have factored in CO2 now, and because we know that causes catastrophic warming…that is why the forecasts are so warm!!

    Remember, forecasts are issued from the ‘center of the known universe too’….

    I worked for them(volunteer), and now do climate work for them for the past 30 years….there forecasts are stupid, and they have drank the global warming cool-aid….

  8. Weathernetwork is forecasting shocking damage to the Earth caused by climate change, in 60 years…

    https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/new-study-maps-out-how-city-climates-will-change-by-2080

    – Which they can do, perfectly accurrately; after all, that’s CLIMATE, not weather. Right, Doctor Suzuki?

    The actual statistic is – weather forecasts are 98% accurate for the first hour after they’re issued. They go downhill pretty spectacularly after that. And the thing I particularly enjoyed about that Weathernetwork article? – the comments are savage, and mostly “denier”. =D

  9. It’s like my daily afternoon traffic forecast “Traffic buildup and slowdown between the split and Blair” every afternoon, 330PM, which is highly probable. I often get there and there isn’t any traffic. Of course, we all know that traffic builds up between Blair and the split every afternoon so we don’t question it.

    Same as with the February weather forecasts; we all know that it starts getting warmer in February so they say every day that it is getting warmer.

    I dare say that, in three months time, they will start predicting summer.

  10. If you can’t predict the micro phenomenon, you certainly can’t predict the macro phenomenon. Climate change predictions are invalid for that simple reason. If you can’t predict the changes for the next 24 hours, then you don’t have a ghost of a chance of predicting a decade or a century.

    1. This is a fallacy. It’s like saying you can’t predict the speed of your car without knowing the exact energy of each of its atoms. Yes the two concepts are interconnected, but for practical purposes they operate at different scales and by different principles.

      1. First, that is not what I said, but an exaggeration of what I said. They are absolutely interconnected as you pointed out, and the modelling concepts are similar. But forget whether you agree with analogy or not: have any of the climate predictions come to pass? Any of them? And if so, name one because you won’t find it. You can’t solve a problem unless you can correctly identify the cause and if your predictions are wrong, then according to the scientific method, your theory must be wrong and you need to modify the supposition and try again. But we are being told on a daily basis that we are idiots because we observe that the predictions from the models are incorrect and flawed, and that the science is settled.

        And no, I don’t need to know the exact energy of the atoms in a car to predict its speed, but if I were to try a predict where every car was going to end up in three hours after the current event using a model based upon statistical probability, I would probably be wrong. If I recognize and use the license plate on the car, my model will improve but it will still not be a certainty (going to work, going home, going to the grocery store, the movies…). It is the certainty of future outcome based upon the micro details (the license plate) that I am questioning. The license plate helps, but it is still not a certainty, and it is the height of arrogance to assume (with bad results) that we can ascertain the future of the climate ( a much more complicated and difficult problem). What we have are suggestions at best, and once I start to see the prophets achieve even a modicum of accuracy in reality, I will be more open to their opinions about the future. But to base tax policy on failed models is stupid.

  12. They’re terrible on Vancouver Island. It’s really unbelievable and everyone else uses their data and most use their forecasts.

  13. Once they changed the name of the Department from “Environment Canada” to “Environment and Climate Change Canada” they became experts in making things up.

  15. I’ve noticed that temp discrepancy also. I get especially annoyed when the weather forecast shows plus 3 as the low and current temp while I’m scraping the frost off my windshield.

    But Turdeau and Barbie wouldn’t know something like that cause their driver brings a nice heated car direct to their door.

  16. Forget what the thermometers say. It’s WINDCHILL!! silly!
    So looking forward to moderating temps when my gonads once again descend to their rightful location. (It’s been quite a while already…).

  17. Well here in central BC, our thermometer usually reads considerably warmer than their forecast temps and broadcast temps. The difference could be partly explained by the fact that the official temperature is taken at the airport, which is always cooler than in town.

    As for their forecasts, one day out they’re fairly accurate for the KIND of weather (not temps) but that accuracy declines rapidly for each additional day added. At five days out, they would do best to just say, “Weather? We’re going to have some”.

  18. Today in Los Angeles: snow on the ground, first time since 1962

    Further evidence of global warming of course, because I’m not accepting their morphing it into ‘climate change’.

  19. They seem to be similar for Salmon Arm BC this winter; not consistently but it seems more likely for the forecast Min to be milder than the real one, rather than the other way around. Tonight the pattern is identical to yours for Rosetown… EC forecast Min is -6 and at 7:00 pm local time their weather station shows -7 (-6.7). Snow is forecast to start soon after midnight so it will probably only go down another couple degrees tonight.

  20. Here in Calgary the temperatures in January got a lot of coverage about how warm it was (e.g. there even was a story about people & pets getting ticks from going walking). But the very long chinook-less Feb cold snap got much less attention in spite of the danger posed. Having crunched some numbers from the Weather Channel’s own historical data I found that the January mean monthly temperature was about 3 degrees above historic and the mean February monthly temperature including their forecast temps to the end of the month will be 13 degrees below historic. Which should be the bigger story??? I agree that there’s intentional bias in our weather reporting. For obvious self serving reasons.

    3. A Saskatchewan is the home of the Sasquatch – kind of like a hairy man-eating Roo but very timid.

  22. Kate,

    I agree that EC forecasts are off often by a lot. I’ve seen what you posted quite often. I am a wx geek so watch these things daily.

    You can always check the Rosetown data as recorded for an previous time period.
    http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=10784

    Sidenote…and geek warning. ☺ Agr Canada (CDA) has a large research station on the edge of the city. They boast a 100+ year weather record at their station. Unfortunately the temperature is tainted by heat from the city (UHI) which is now just 400 m away. The airport station is about 5 km away and another accredited station is about 3 km SE out of CDA and away from the city. I’ve dug into the historical temperature data and compared the rural airport temps with the now-near-urban CDA station. Between 1938 and 2007, the CDA mean annual temp increased 1.5C° more then the rural airport temps. I ran a regression analysis of the increase against the population growth in Lethbridge. The R squared value (geek stuff) was 0.92. Meaning? The CDA temp increases were in lock step with the population growth of Lethbridge that has crept closer and closer to CDA. The city grows and in the eyes of Agr Canada staff, global warming is rampant because they are measuring heated city air. Ooops. BTW, sometimes the CDA temps are as much as 5 degrees above the other two nearby stations. Not kidding.

    As someone noted, they seem to imagine increasing temps a week or so away. I am no Rick Mercer fan, but this is simply hilarious:
    https://youtu.be/wkDvqQKGgDA

    Clive

  23. What you complaining about?
    Using the best of”Environment Canada’s Science” and incorporating a bit of Karlization to make the temperatures as measured match the GIGO expected temperatures,you then get the projected daily temperature as “Feels like”.

    Like the third day forecast from these fools,it is always gonna be warmer,just never quite happens.
    By now you may as well just step outside and deal with the weather as it occurs,cause our overpaid experts have no idea and have no interest or incentive in getting the forecast right.

    As all who work outdoor know,there is nothing you can do about the weather anyway and the forecast is just head games we play.

    “Heap bit warmy come..then very very cold”..Oh Susanna is more accurate than the useless tools on our payroll.
    I figure in a few more months we will see some real Northern Global warming , otherwise known as spring.

  25. the magic line:

    “Condition: Not Observed”

    Maybe they should do some more Observing, and less calculating.

  26. In Toronto they must be laying off competent staff. The term “Severe weather warning in effect ” covers all seasons. No temps no other description much of the time. Political weather doom plus an occasional announcement of cooling/warming centers. The recent winter storm that closed all the schools and colleges would have been a non event in Montreal or Ottawa.

  27. cold winters, mild winters, green winters, cold summers, hot summers, wet summers, having experienced all the previous weather phenomena, I can with great authority state that nothing has changed, it still happens, not necessarily in that specific order.

  29. They should admit they have no clue about Wx forecasting. Where I live The Wx Network is always off even for precipitation. If I need accurate Wx I go outside.

  30. Weather forecasting is based on the use of probability and chance math calculations so you have to wonder if a ‘warming bias’ has been added into the calculations.
    I find their forecasts in the summer are even worse. Their projected highs are sometimes 5 degrees above temps actually achieved.

  31. The answer to your question, Kate, is Yes.
    By the way, The Government of Canada Environment and Climate Change Department is currently showing an observed temperature at the Rosetown airport of minus 32.8C. That’s as of 9 AM Central time. But be cheered. It’s 2.1 degrees warmer than the coldest temperature for February 21 in the last 25 years.

    You know that your country’s official weather and environment organization has been politicized when its name is changed to “Environment and Climate Change”.

  32. The Weather Network is pathetic. It’s all about the GTA.

    They need some Mexican weather gurls. The ones that are poured into their size 0 partial dress. Coo chee coo entertainment……

    At least they don’t pretend to know anything about the weather.

    There you have it.

  36. I worked in the Saskatoon weather office (when it existed) many, many years ago as a summer student. There were about ten forecasters, I think, and some support staff. My observations at the time were that: 1) They were only interested in accurately forecasting the weather for the next 1-7 days. 2) They knew they were only about 85% accurate to the 3-day forecast. 3) They had no respect for the people in the Edmonton office, when they had to do cover work for WXE, because they were all firm believers in understanding the local conditions and how they vary from the official models. 4) They always tweaked the models, based on their experience; some were better at it than others. 5) They had less respect for The Weather Network for similar reasons, since all their forecasts were coming out of “the Montreal office”.

    I was younger and more impressionable, but I remember the team being pretty professional and filled with weather geeks, except the one older gent who was pretty jaded. I don’t remember any promotion of a climate change agenda at all.

    Now, whether that impression would obtain today, I can’t say. But I definitely doubt that the models have gotten much more accurate, and I definitely doubt that any forecaster not on a site could forecast the local weather with any sort of reasonable accuracy. YMMV.

  37. I am very close friends with one of the forecasters in the Winnipeg office (which has quite a few conservatives working there), which covers southern Saskatchewan. I asked him about it and he told me these few things.
    1. There’s no effort to do anything but provide a good forecast. No narrative is in play. A lot of the forecasters are skeptical about the main cause of and magnitude of climate change. They just can’t say it out loud.
    2. The forecasts since the beginning of February have been admittedly pretty bad. Reason (not excuse): the forecasts are driven by numerical guidance which itself is driven by the normals for the time of year. The guidance is the starting point and adjusted by the forecaster according to the weather of the day. The last few weeks the forecasters have been taking terrible guidance and improving it (!!!) but not improving it enough. Apparently the guidance has been so bad that the adjustments needed to make a perfect forecast has been on the order of 15-20 degrees, which is way outside what the usual error is (3-5 degrees).
    3. Aside from Saskatoon and Regina, the forecasts are “regional”, so in this case Rosetown is bundled with Kindersley. Kindersley is the forecast verification point for that region, so Rosetown is given less weight in the forecast. They’re often different in terms of temperature.
    4. The hourly forecasts are largely ignorable. The forecasters put the high and low into the software and leave everything else but the website extracts all the hour by hour stuff. So pay attention to the high and low, not what it’ll be at any given hour.
    5. The recorded highs and lows are not manipulated. If the forecast was off, that has nothing to do with what the officially recorded high and low are.
    6. Temperatures vary on such a small scale that its impossible to catch all the variation without vastly increasing staff.

    Bottom line: it’s nothing nefarious, and no direction from above has been given, except to make good forecasts; it’s just been a bad few weeks. That said, the forecasts, according to the verification scores, are usually pretty accurate. Not perfect, of course. Especially not recently.

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