If the question is, “Does the financial community see a trend to higher levels of kWh sales growth?”, a dominant majority answered no.
I should note, SaskPower is projecting growth up to 33,000 Gwh/yr in 2034 from 23,000 Gwh/yr in 2014. That’s based on a 300k population increase, so SaskPower must be thinking that we’re going to pick up a pile of manufacturing from areas where that is discouraged, like Provinces west and further east.
Via Josh
The NDP is taking care of the “Provinces west” part…
Ontario’s total annual energy demand peaked in 2005 (157,000 Gwh) just when the Liberals took power. Now we are down to 137,000 despite the population going up by 1.4M people. Of course they will take credit for the increased energy efficiency of Ontario under their wise leadership of McWynnty and not the 300-500,000 lost manufacturing jobs.
The type of power built is as important as how much. Electricity production comes in two types- baseload and peaking. Unless there’s a major breakthrough in electricity generation, baseload power can only come from fossil fuels, nuclear and hydro. Peaking power is usually natural gas because it can be easily ramped up or down. Hydro can be used but grid control tries to keep it at full load because it is cheap. I doubt we will see new coal plants any time soon due to CAGW hysteria. That leaves natgas, hydro and nuclear.
Another possibility for baseload is biomass, with carbon capture (negative carbon emissions) or without carbon capture (carbon neutral). That’s basically what the UK and Europe have used to reduce carbon emissions. Certainly there would be objections to burning trees from Saskatchewan’s northern forest but it makes far more sense than wind and solar. In fact, if done wisely it could reduce fire hazards around northern communities via fire breaks and increase FN employment.
Wind and solar aren’t really good for either baseload or peaking because they are unreliable. At best they can be used on hot, summer days when air conditioners are turned on. At worst, they destabilize the grid and reduce the efficiency and profitability of reliable power because of FIT programs. Saskpower’s wind farms are purely due to political pressure, they make no economic sense whatsoever. Better to just buy cheap, excess wind power from neighbors who have foolishly gone gung-ho on Big Green.
I wonder how much of the projected increase will be filled with power agreements with other provinces instead of being built in the province. Didn’t Saskpower sign agreements with Manitoba to secure hydro power? That makes sense both from an economic standpoint (not on the hook for capital costs) and politically (renewable resource mandates).
As for projections – ??. Notoriously difficult to forecast future needs which is why flexible, reliable systems are best. I think that Saskatchewan will be one of the stablest provinces to invest in. Not only have we not gone Green and made electricity unnecessarily expensive but provincial government pension liabilities are very low compared to other provinces. Low(ish) debt, low taxes and a relatively young population should also help. Perhaps that will attract lots of new business looking to escape from other provinces.
I thought that every new house, apartment building, business, required an increase in electrical generation. how could I have been that wrong?
I agree with all of this, LC. A few details might add to it. The interconnection between Saskatchewan and Alberta is very limited, 150 MW and that’s it. Moreover, the Saskatchewan grid does not lend itself to east-west power flows. The MOU with Manitoba is to explore future increased electricity exchanges. Some enhancement of the grid will be needed to allow Manitoba electricity into SE Saskatchewan.
I think it would be a great idea to build another power dam on the north sask river somewhere east of Blaine Lake. The recreation spin off would be tremendous not to mention the power generation. It could also provide for irrigation projects to improve crop production on some of the sandy soils above the back water area.
With the NDP now out of power in Manitoba, I hope the new Conservative government will make my Province business friendly again and amp up the battle with Saskatchewan to lure businesses away from the socialist gulags of Alberta and Ontario.
Also, I hope they will get all the NDP hacks off the board of Manitoba Hydro and stop the expansion of new bird-chopper (windmills) And get out of the money losing contracts with the existing wind energy companies. Hydro catered to Minnesota and Wisconsin to fulfil contracts for power to include a “green” component, hence the windmills. The NDP bent over backwards for export contracts to justify Hydro building new dams, for (mandatory unionized) jobs creation.
By the way, Premier elect Pallister, I could make myself available for a seat on the MB Hydro board, as I have some credentials that would fit the position, and not being a member of any political party, ever, the NDP couldn’t call me a patronage appointment. 🙂
“Biomass” in Germany includes the burning of non-recyclable garbage. The UK burns wood imported from North America but agonizes over whether or not to burn garbage.
The experts don’t know why electricity demand is dropping. Could it be the price we pay for it has sky-rocketed out of control? Naw, can’t be that simple. Must be electric cars and off-grid solar.
55% of interviewees see “Wind benefits as not being worth the cost of reduced grid efficiency”, and “the impact on the grid is not factored into the cost of such generation. Wind doesn’t pay for lots of costs associated with its generation.”
The question is why are Governments building out this Crap & “NOT” showing the real total costs…Kickbacks & bribes are usually a one time event. Something more insidious is in play
If energy efficiency is the answer … then WHY have my utility bills continued to rise as though I am using 35% more energy over the past 8 years ? I have replaced all my bulbs with the gawdawful curly fluorescent ones, and I have motion detector switches everywhere … and … the last of my three kids has moved out. FU PG&E … and FU CAPUC…. you are supposed to be HELPING the electricity consumer … not making us PAY for every idiotic “clean, green” initiative lining the pockets of Dianne Feinstein’s, and Barbara Boxers pockets !
Did you save any old electric bills? Look for the amount of energy used in kilowatt hours, not the dollars you pay. Look back a few years at kWh amounts for the same months and that will tell you if you’re using more energy or not.
If motion detectors and dimmers are used to control lights, then CFBs offer very little advantage over incandescent. For areas that are lit regularly for hours, then LED bulbs are by far the best option for using less energy. If you heat your house with electricity then you might as well use incandescent for the heat they generate in the winter when lights are on most.