Now open.
Predict the final party distribution of the 338 seats in Parliament up for grabs in next week’s federal election for a chance to win a free book from the SDA Free Book Library.
Contest closes on Tuesday at midnight. One entry per customer. Entries must be made in the comments (not email), earliest time stamp will determine winner in the event of a tie.
Polling data here, fwiw.
Libs – 129
Cons – 122
NDP – 80
GP – 1
BLOC – 6
IND. – 1
Personally, I see the Cons losing quite a bit of support to the Libs. There will always be a strong Con Base (30% or so), but the current weakness of the NDP will slide the Centre-Left to the Libs. Due to Harper fatigue and the endless nonsense from the leftist media, these people (low info voters) will go to Justin. Unless Harper’s campaign picks up in the next few days, I predict a Lib Minority. I don’t want to see it, but it is my prediction. Maybe it’s time to bring out the fear tactics against the Libs??? Harper has been pretty tame in his attacks against all of the Lib lies!
Libs – 129
Cons – 122
NDP – 80
GP – 1
BLOC – 6
IND. – 1
Personally, I see the Cons losing quite a bit of support to the Libs. There will always be a strong Con Base (30% or so), but the current weakness of the NDP will slide the Centre-Left to the Libs. Due to Harper fatigue and the endless nonsense from the leftist media, these people (low info voters) will go to Justin. Unless Harper’s campaign picks up in the next few days, I predict a Lib Minority. I don’t want to see it, but it is my prediction. Maybe it’s time to bring out the fear tactics against the Libs??? Harper has been pretty tame in his attacks against all of the Lib lies!
To this point in time, and making some effort to count multiple entries only once, I have compiled the following averages and ranges for the 93 predictions (multiple entries and chat have inflated the post count):
CON … median 147, range 87 to 216
LIB … median 110, range 36 (60) to 160
NDP … median 68, range 30 to 111
BLQ … median 7, range 0 to 68
GRN … median 1, range 0 to 8 (3)
OTH … median 0, range 0 to 6
A few notes, there were two places where I felt that the extreme was enough of an outlier that I listed the second most extreme value in brackets (low for Liberals, high for Green). That’s not to say they are wrong, of course. I went with median rather than mean partly to save time but because it is more indicative of consensus in skewed samples (notably Bloc which has a mean of about 11 as compared to the median of 7).
As I went through these guesses, I found perhaps half a dozen that did not quite add up correctly but I think the errors cancel out generally. I only noted actual predictions, not leftover values that must be this or that (but that would not have changed the results very much if I had done that). I counted anything as PQ as meaning Bloc Q and I went with my instincts on party names that were not actually as we know them (although once or twice I had to think about it). Only a few guesses accounted for the strong possibility of “other” candidates winning, so the median value there rises to about 2 if we just count people who thought of that factor. One of the “other” guesses specified 3 Libertarians and while I would love to see that, can rule it out after consulting with a panel of experts including my cat. This despite the 100% sweep of the POD household by said party.
For your own amusement, these are the raw data, just arranged in ascending order — the 47th value is the median (assume a lot of missing zeroes for Other).
I may update this without resubmitting the raw data if there are many more predictions. If there are just a few, you can figure out the median by adding any predictions made after “Todd” above (some might get in between as I type this) and pushing the median over once for every two new entries.
Summary of results would say minority CPC government, Liberals in lead opposition role. About five predictions placed the NDP ahead of the Liberals, nobody went any further than tying the NDP with other parties as their best showing.
CON 87 100 107 115 116 119 120 121 121 122 122 122 124 127 127 128 128 129 129 129 130 131 131 131 132 133 134 134 135 137 137 137 137 138 138 139 140 140 140 141 142*144 145 146 147 147 147 148 149 150 150 153 155 156 157 158 158 158 160 164 164 164 166 167 167 167 167 168 168 168 170 172 172 172 172 172 173 174 174 174 175 177 179 180 182 182 183 187 199 200 200 215 216
LIB 36 60 62 71 74 74 74 74 75 75 76 77 80 82 83 83 88 89 90 90 90 90 90 92 93 94 96 96 96 97 98 98 100 109*100 101 102 105 105 106 107 107 107 109 110 110 112 112 112 113 113 116 117 117 118 118 119 119 119 119 120 120 120 121 122 123 123 125 125 125 126 126 127 127 127 127 128 128 132 132 133 133 135 136 136 137 141 142 142 147 160
NDP 30 31 34 34 36 36 40 41 42 45 45 45 45 47 47 47 48 48 49 50 50 52 53 53 53 54 55 56 59 60 60 61 62 63 63 64 65 65 65 65 65 66 66 66 67 68 68 68 69 69 69 70 71 71 72 73 73 74 75 75 75 77 78 79 79 79 79 80 80 80 80*80 82 82 82 82 82 83 84 84 85 85 86 88 88 89 96 103 107 111
BQ. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6*6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 17 19 20 21 22 22 23 23 24 28 30 53 60 60 68
GRN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1*2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 8
OTH 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 6
Old Grump, thanks for the demonstration of Democrat voting strategy.
You do know that this isn’t a raffle, don’t you.
At least you have proven that captcha is not an insurmountable obstacle.
CPC – 148
LPC – 75
NDP – 115
Green – 0
CPC- 148
LPC- 75
NDP- 115
GREEN- 0
My optimism is all but gone. The shift in the campaign rhetoric over the weekend saw to that. Harper knows he’s losing, and Trudeau knows he’s winning. So, with deep regret & depression:
Lib 137
CPC 122
NDP 72
BQ 5
Grn 2
It’s going to be long decade of Liberal power. First an 18-month minority propped up by the Dippers, then two majorities as the CPC suffers a Red Tory revolt, fails to make any case to return to power, and the media rolls over and lets Trudeau pat their belly for the entire time.
147 Lib
113 CPC
75 ND
2 bloc
1 green
CPC 129
LPC 114
NDP 79
PQ 4
Green 2
No one more happier than I if PM Harper has a complete majority. If the media favourite Justin Trudeau wins, expect a drooling euphoria for a week or two. A void will stricken these shills – no more Harper to pick at. At least only hollow stuff.
This is an update to my previous post about the average (median in fact) predictions. I have added four later picks and fixed one typo in the data base. By the way, the picks that have asterisks are those entered as “borrowed picks” from Cdnelectionblogspot which has since adjusted their numbers anyway (to a much tighter outcome). So this is how things stand (see previous post for more details, I tried to eliminate multiple picks) with all (97) predictions made:
CON … range 87 to 216 … median 147
LIB … range 36 (60) to 160 … median 112
NDP … range 30 to 111 … median 68
BLQ … range 0 to 68 … median 8 (mean 11)
GRN … range 0 to (3) 8 … median 1
OTH … range 0 to 6 for 13 actual picks … mean of those 1.8
data base from all predictions, ascending order
CON 87 100 107 113 115 116 119 120 121 121 122 122 122 122 124 127 127 128 128 129 129 129 129 130 131 131 131 132 133 134 134 135 137 137 137 137 138 138 139 140 140 140 141 142*144 145 146 147 147 147 148 148 149 150 150 153 155 156 157 158 158 158 160 164 164 164 166 167 167 167 167 168 168 168 170 172 172 172 172 172 173 174 174 174 175 177 179 180 182 182 183 187 199 200 200 215 216
LIB 36 60 62 71 74 74 74 74 75 75 75 76 77 80 82 83 83 88 89 90 90 90 90 90 92 93 94 96 96 96 97 98 98 100 100 101 102 105 105 106 107 107 107 109 109*110 110 112 112 112 113 113 114 116 117 117 118 118 119 119 119 119 120 120 120 121 122 123 123 125 125 125 126 126 127 127 127 127 128 128 132 132 133 133 135 136 136 137 137 141 142 142 147 147 160
NDP 30 31 34 34 36 36 40 41 42 45 45 45 45 45 47 47 47 48 48 49 50 50 52 53 53 53 54 55 56 59 60 60 61 62 63 63 64 65 65 65 65 65 66 66 66 67 68 68 68 69 69 69 70 71 71 72 72 73 73 74 75 75 75 75 77 78 79 79 79 79 79 80 80 80 80*80 82 82 82 82 82 83 84 84 85 85 86 88 88 89 96 103 107 111
BQ. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6*6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 17 17 19 20 21 22 22 23 23 24 28 30 53 60 60 68
GRN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1*2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 8
OTH 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 6
Ouch.
Maybe the first question on the test could be: How do you post a blog comment without posting it three times.