2015 Federal Election Prediction Contest

Now open.
Predict the final party distribution of the 338 seats in Parliament up for grabs in next week’s federal election for a chance to win a free book from the SDA Free Book Library.
Contest closes on Tuesday at midnight. One entry per customer. Entries must be made in the comments (not email), earliest time stamp will determine winner in the event of a tie.
Polling data here, fwiw.

162 Replies to “2015 Federal Election Prediction Contest”

  1. Very much hope I’m wrong.
    Common Sense party: 145
    Infantile fatuous community theater Party (but with great hair): 119
    Party of Institutionalized Envy 72
    Loopy loonie mushroom munchers party: 2
    The best outcome would be if the results can summarized as follows;
    Media party 0

  2. If Harper wins but, doesn’t win a majority then either Trudeau or Mulclair will be PM by Christmas.

  3. What do you mean “if the country votes for Turdeau (sic) it clearly has a sub-par IQ.”?
    This country DOES have a sub-par IQ, more specifically, a sub-par financial IQ and sub-par self-responsibility IQ. The real question is IF the sub-pars turn out in sufficient numbers to give His Hairness cred for his EMOTING, to elect him to a government.
    My gut tells me that Harper is done, my head tells me, people can’t possibly that stupid, then I read above and know that it is all dependent on who turnsout to vote.
    I’m hoping for BC 2013 redux

  4. CPC 131
    Lib 107
    NDP 88
    BQ 12
    G 1
    I really hope Trudeau falls on his face somehow, and Harper pulls it out of the fire, but it’s not looking good right now. Dippers must be deciding to back Trudeau so Mulcair can hold the balance of power.
    I feel like I might have to become a migrant if the Liberals win. If they do, may the first thing on the agenda be legalizing marijuana, I don’t think I could bear 4 years of the Shiny Pony running the country without being completely swacked all the time.

  5. CPC 137
    LIB 112
    NDP 88
    GRIN 1
    Then again, recent electoral history has had Harper trailing in the polls and going on to take a majority.
    I have not had a single call from a polling company this time. Usually 3-5x by now.

  6. Bingo!
    That said.
    CPC 164
    LPC 121
    NDP 30
    BQ 21
    GRN 2
    I know, tough slugging ahead. Election again in spring 2017.

  7. CPC 137
    LIB 112
    NDP 88
    GRIN 1
    Then again, recent electoral history has had Harper trailing in the polls and going on to take a majority.
    I have not had a single call from a polling company this time. Usually 3-5x by now.

  8. CPC 140 and Harper steps down
    Libs 142 but Justin doesn’t win his seat
    NDP 45 and Mulcair is out
    BLOC 10 but Duceppe also doesn’t win his seat
    Greenies 1 and May is defeated in the next leadership review
    2016 will become known as the year of the three prime ministers.
    No legislation is passed for the next two years and strangely, Canada becomes a better place.

  9. Stable Steve 175
    Justin case you
    lost your mind 88
    Tommy wankin’ a
    wet dream 64
    Gilles’ a thrill 60
    Tin hat Lizzy 1
    I think the “media party” is trying to get us to buy in to Justin. Can you say “senate appointments”?. It’s amazing how quickly people will sober up in the voting booth.

  10. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in guillible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowlege test made up by old people from all parties.

  11. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in guillible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowlege test made up by old people from all parties.

  12. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in gullible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowledge test made up by old people from all parties.

  13. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in gullible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowledge test made up by old people from all parties.

  14. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in gullible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowledge test made up by old people from all parties.

  15. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in gullible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowledge test made up by old people from all parties.
    383

  16. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in gullible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowledge test made up by old people from all parties.
    2700

  17. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in gullible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowledge test made up by old people from all parties.

  18. My prediction is that we are effed.
    I’ve never seen such an enraged and motivated left as I’ve seen in the past few weeks. My two 20-something kids say nearly everyone in their social media newsfeeds are voting Liberal, and many have already voted at advance polls. The youth vote will be a strong one.

  19. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in gullible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowledge test made up by old people from all parties.

  20. Its the additional 30 new seats that have been added that worry me , only about 6 are traditional conservative areas

  21. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in gullible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowledge test made up by old people from all parties.

  22. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in gullible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowledge test made up by old people from all parties.

  23. CPC 144
    Lib 118
    NDP 68
    BQ 7
    Green 1
    Hoping for more CPC,but it looks to me like there might be a sudden surge in gullible young females voting this time. I’m beginning to think that nobody under 30 should be allowed to vote and even then they should have to pass a general knowledge test made up by old people from all parties.

  24. I think it should be that if someone wants to be on the electors list they should have to take a basic political knowledge test.
    I’m sick of the uninformed vote cancelling out my informed vote.

  25. Actually, there is. We get a couple of PC candidates in south Ont every federal election (and probaly more down in the maritimes, eh?) but they haven’t been winning seats…

  26. CPC-133,LPC-127,NDP-69,PQ-8 and Green-1
    If there is a coalition of The Liberals and the NDP, Western Canada is in Dire Straights. Where is honest journalism in Canada? The left side of the political spectrum have used the old idea; “If you can’t discredit the message you discredit the messenger!”

  27. I can predict anything but the future. However, I am feeling pretty good about Mr. Harper hanging in. I think those who know the difference and what is at state, will go vote while the lazy distracted left remains home wishing they could just vote on Facebook.

  28. According to Ouija Board:
    CPC 120
    NDP 80
    Lib 132
    BQ 4
    Gr 2
    Libs will gain in Ont with Whynne’s biatches following turdeaumania redux and some from disillusioned NDP from Que. CPC will weaken in Ont and Gilles will lead a ragtag group of blockheads back to the federal pension trough. Thin Lizzie will get back in for some unknown reason and still be able to hold caucus meetings at Starbucks without taking up too much room.

  29. BartF. “A major world event that would make people think about Shiny Pony negotiating on our behalf with people like Putin (or pretty much anyone) or dealing with a banking crisis in the U.S. or Europe.”
    Is this close? “Trudeau says he would tell Putin off ‘to his face’ if he becomes prime minister.”
    “Trudeau accuses Putin of “being dangerous” in eastern Europe, “irresponsible and harmful” in the Middle East and “unduly provocative” in the Arctic. ‘Canada needs to continue to stand strongly with the international community pushing back against the bully that is Vladimir Putin,’ he said during a campaign stop in Toronto.” ‘If I have the opportunity in the coming months to meet with Vladimir Putin, I will tell him all this directly to his face because we need to ensure that Canada continues to stand strongly for peace and justice in the world.’ ”
    And then, of course, do nothing whatsoever. Trudeau would probably pee and Putin would probably slap him upside the head, then invite him to play hockey against him and his Red Army buddies.

  30. Here is my prediction/ I hope I am right
    172 cpc
    90 for the shiny pony
    60 for angry tom
    16 for the bq

  31. Yet when Harper, in no uncertain terms, told Putin to stay out of the Ukraine it was a much different story. The Prime Minister was demonized by the media and the usual pack of Harper Haters as being “undiplomatic”. It seems that regardless of actual events, Harper can do no good and Trudeau can do no wrong.

  32. I’m too depressed to make a prediction, but I can only hope that those SDA readers predicting Tory majorities are correct. Alas, I don’t think so. I’m thinking a Shiny Pony minority with a quick lurch even further leftwards to buy some Dipper support. Let the Obamafication of Canada begin. The Fraser Institute currently ranks Canada #3 out of 140 countries on its economic freedom index, while the US is #17. I’m betting that after 2 years of a Shiny Pony regime, we’ll have dropped to the double digits.

  33. Hey, I resent those anti-Subaru comments. I’m on my third Outback, and my only complaint is that, unlike my old Silverado, it has no place to hang the gun rack. Compared to my old Blazer, it has more ground clearance, more cargo space, more legroom and headroom, is more reliable and costs way less, plus that AWD is fantastic in the snow. I suggest that the tree-hugging, granola head dipper voting leftards are more likely to drive a Prius or a Volvo than a Subie. On the other hand, here in Trawna, there are plenty of those types who drive Mercedes and Audis as well.

  34. Libs – 129
    Cons – 122
    NDP – 80
    GP – 1
    BLOC – 6
    IND. – 1
    Personally, I see the Cons losing quite a bit of support to the Libs. There will always be a strong Con Base (30% or so), but the current weakness of the NDP will slide the Centre-Left to the Libs. Due to Harper fatigue and the endless nonsense from the leftist media, these people (low info voters) will go to Justin. Unless Harper’s campaign picks up in the next few days, I predict a Lib Minority. I don’t want to see it, but it is my prediction. Maybe it’s time to bring out the fear tactics against the Libs??? Harper has been pretty tame in his attacks against all of the Lib lies!

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