Now open.
Predict the final party distribution of the 338 seats in Parliament up for grabs in next week’s federal election for a chance to win a free book from the SDA Free Book Library.
Contest closes on Tuesday at midnight. One entry per customer. Entries must be made in the comments (not email), earliest time stamp will determine winner in the event of a tie.
Polling data here, fwiw.
183 PC
74 liberals
65 NDP
12 bloc
2 greens
I am horrible at election prediction but the Green in Victoria may win to double Lizzy’s seats. The bloc may come back just a bit in Quebec to strip a few nationalist NDP seats.
Neither the Libs nor the NDP have emerged as the dominant ABC party which means a lot of vote splitting.
The niqab reminds Canadians about the immigration and security concerns both the NDP and the Libs present.
Harper has not screwed up, boring? Sure. So what?
CPC 138
LPC 120
NDP 53
PQ 24
Green 3
CPC – 138
Lie – berals – 105
angry tommers – 84
Back from the dead Duceppe – 10
Lizzy May – 1
After deep, deep dish analysis and a hint of wishful thinking, being generous to the BQ and the Green slime.
Here is the deal:
CPC 119
NDP 89
Lib 105
BQ 22
GR 3
It is interesting to note that the polls done by the Liberal and anti-conservative media propaganda cartel show preference of the Liberals.
Those polls done by somewhat independent though still favouring Liberals organizations could not help themselves but to be forced to show that maybe it is the conservatives that are in the lead.
Well, good luck to the preferred party here.
CPC 156
LPC 125
NDP 41
BQ 14
GRN 2
A minority conservative government with the BQ holding the balance of power and placing Harper in the position of having to cede power, I don’t think Harper would be held ransom by the BQ, to a coalition of LIB/NDP. End result will be a huge wailing and gnashing of teeth for the next four years from LIB/NDP voters who believed Trudeau and Mulcair when they said a coalition government wasn’t in the works and are now saddled with a carbon tax, a gun registration, a refugee and migrant influx that crushes the infrastructure thereby boosting the cost of healthcare, education, law and order, housing, etc., etc., etc. And Conservatives will have no comfort in saying “See I told you so!” since we will all be sucked into this stinking morass that is foreshadowed to be Canada.
CON 167
LIB 71
NDP 40
BQ 60
GR 0
1) Polls usually under estimate the Conservative voter.
2) 25 year old pot smokers voting for Libs is much less likely to vote than the 60 year old small business person for the Cons
3) Vote splitting across Canada tends to favour the Cons
4) Cons have the best GOTV of the parties
5) Harper can count
CPC 174
Libs 110
NDP 45
PQ 7
Green 2
An open inquiry to the voters of Ontario,and Quebec, do you people realize how big your provincial debt is? And are you willing to vote for this imbecile Justin who will plunge the entire country into the same kind of debt as your dopey premiers have already done? Ontario has the higest debt of any non soverign jurisdiction in the “world”, is that not serious? Does anyoone who thinks they should vote for this dud not have a mortgage? I am at a loss to understand this kind of self loathing that anyone would vote for such a fool as this puppet!
CPC 131
Lib 126
NDP 61
BQ 19
GP 1
LIB – 142
CPC – 122
NDP – 68
BQ – 5
G – 1
Tough way to build a library.
Calling it for the Lib min.
Nice hair though 147
Helmet head 121
Angry beard 66
Cheese head 3
Who cares 1
CPC:167
L:98
Ndp:65
Green:1
Bq:7
Ontarians and Qbecers have believed for quite some time that “someone else” will pay the debts.
Just like Greece.
There is no pc party federally.
As I post this I’m throwing up in my mouth……
CPC 127
LPC 131
NDP 69
BQ 10
GPC 1
It kills me to say this, but …a Liberal minority government, as follows:
Liberals > 132
Conservatives > 116
NDP > 96
Sure hope I’m very wrong, but I fear Conservatives are not closing the sale.
cpc-129
lib-120
ndp-79
bq-8
grn-8
ind-1
And I am going to wrong. In Simcoe North at advanced polling, very busy, line ups. The geezer vote is out, the deal is whether they want to keep their income splitting, or if they think justin will get more rectal exams for free.
I’m reminded of those religious guys who flog themselves with chains.
Lib: 136
CPC: 127
NDP: 70
Grn: 1
BQ: 4
What I expect.
I want a huge CPC majority.
I apologize on behalf of all of Ontario … the land of Liberal pearl-clutchers. Yes, there are more Conservatives here than in other parts of the country, but we are outnumbered by those who have internalized the “Conservatives are un-Canadian and can’t really be trusted” song the Liberals have been singing for a generation or more. 10+ years of anti-Harper advertising only confirms what they always thought was true. They only loan power to Conservatives on a temporary basis, then they sink back into their big soft comfy Liberal couch. Conservatives have made substantial gains over the past decade, but still need to get better at selling conservative values as Canadian values. I want to be positive, but I think Mr. Trudeau has won this one. The Liberals are masters at portraying elites as someone who “shares you values”. Even just typing this is upsetting… Perhaps a miracle is still possible.
I bet $1 Bob.
CPC 164
NDP 82
LPC 74
PQ 17
Green 1
I predict that LPC popular vote does not translate into seats. In fact, I predict the LPC has a greater % of popular vote to the NDP but end-up with less seats.(just making isht up)
Conservatives – 124
Liberal – 127
NDP – 78
BQ – 7
Green – 2
I’m going to sell my house and move to Ecuador.
I bet $1 Bob.
CPC 164
NDP 82
LPC 74
PQ 17
Green 1
I predict that LPC popular vote does not translate into seats. In fact, I predict the LPC has a greater % of popular vote to the NDP but end-up with less seats.(just making isht up)
There has been a 34% increase in voting in the advance polls over the 2011 election.
Take that as you will.
Irony is deep within Lieberal values.
Justin, the 1%er, knows whats best for the “middle class”
What could possibly go wrong?
No numbers except 15 for Conservatives in Quebec. Ever since Ontarians voted the libs back in provincially I have completely lost faith in the intelligence and unselfishness of the voters.
For example Pierre Lemieux who has been elected three times in Eastern Ontario is in danger of losing his seat despite all his fantastic work. I can only conclude the citizens see which way the wind is blowing and want to be represented by a Liberal who can bring money to the riding.
CPC … 150
Green … 1
Bloc … 4
Lib … 100
NDP … 83
Trudeau will loose his seat and resign. 25 Libs will prop up CPC for 18 months. eMay will resign in 2 years and run for Mayor of Sidney … But what do I know, I’m in her riding.
I only hope you are right re the conservatives. The seniors have been voting en masse in my riding. Maybe they will turn the tide since they remember what it used to be like under a Liberal government. Still Shiny Pony ran a strong campaign…he’s great at memorizing scripts. I wonder what he’ll be like when he actually has to answer questions he can’t prepare for…like manage the economy from the heart. I predict a liberal minority gov’t….the seats….133 L, 120 C, 80 NDP, the rest to the Bloc. I hope Elizabeth May doesn’t get elected but she probably will.
Ted
Ah, like me, in a riding where, as a CPC, we are a voice in the wilderness, Garrison, despite his deplorable behaviour (electioneering at my son’s graduation ceremony(!), for ex.) will be re-elected thanks to far too many takers, government workers and gov. retirees, who walk in goose step with Marxist NDP policy. They could run a goat here, and he would be elected.
You, with May, stuck with the Unicorn and raging granny crowd, and a fair amount of the same gubermint workers.
May resign, and actually be responsible for something? Nah, don’t see it, she can promise the world right now, and forever, without ever having to be responsible for her foolish and silly positions on everything.
More likely, Justin names her Minister of the Environment, now THERE’s a scary thought.
I find it discouraging that every seat in the west could go to Harper and he would still lose the election. All Trudeau needs is Ontario and Quebec.
CPC……..137
Liberal….112
NDP……..77
BQ………12
Green……0
As things stand now:
Lib 135
Con 122
Dip 45
BQ 5
Grn 1
Not much more to do for the next week but to hammer Shiny Pony on his economic and foreign affairs illiteracy.
Possible black swan events the could help the CPC:
1. A major gaffe by Shiny Pony (he is by far the most gaffe prone of the three)
2. A major world event that would make people think about Shiny Pony negotiating on our behalf with people like Putin (or pretty much anyone) or dealing with a banking crisis in the U.S. or Europe.
3. David Cameron’s provebial “shy tories” showing up at the polls in force. Also, the Jays coming back in their series against Texas would be a great distraction for many of Shiny Pony’s “selfie generation” voters.
Regards,
Bart (go Jays!)
CPC- 166
LIB- 97
NDP- 62
BQ- 12
G- 1
CPC 129
Lib 125
NDP 75
BQ 8
Gr 1
Union leaders don’t have the clout they pretend to have, except in mill towns.
Unions have gone global, thereby going for perquisites (travel, per diems, premium hotels, benefits) and are no longer interested in what the rank and file think.
CPC 187
Liberals 77
NDP 73
BQ 1
Green 0
Others 0
If the recent result of the NDP winning in Alberta is any precursor, I predict Canada will follow the United States in electing some sort of cultural/economic Marxist government (Grits/NDP coalition or outright Trudeau win), whereby PM Harper is no longer.
I clearly hope I am dead wrong.
CPC 179
Bloc 7
NDP 75
Gn 1
LPC 76.
5% effect from conservatives do not respond to pollsters .
Additional effect of voter motivation and deliberate misinformation to polling.
PC: 180
Lib: 90
NDP: 49
BQ: 10
we, wife and I, drive a Subaru and voted PC
CPC 148
LPC 136
NDP 42
PQ 10
Gr 2
CPC 135
LPC 123
NDP 68
BQ 11
Green 1
CPC – 149
Libs – 82
NDP – 71
BQ – 5
Green – 1
Thank you, friend……to be in Victoria/Oak Bay though, you have to understand, there is a general trend for the typical armchair green/liberal/socialist.
Vehicle? Subaru, Prius, “Smart” Car or a full electric. There are several Leafs, Mitsubishis, Volts and a few Tesla’s around here. Urban chic.
The point is, unless you have spent time here, the hypcorisy runs deep with the urban latte west coast set. May represents to wholly. Pretending to be green, but flying, weekly, to and from Ottawa. Yup, that’s REALLY saving the earth……../sarc.
Its all about symbology for the left. Doesn’t have to be effective, just symbolic. The Liberals signed Kyoto, but did NOTHING (and for that we should really thank them for their hypocrisy!) It was ALL symbolic!
CPC 158
LPC 119
NDP 48
PQ 12
Green 1
Adult Party = 130
Pot Heads = 123
Commies = 80
Traitors = 4
Loony = 1
If shiny pony loses his seat, I’ll do a Godiva, minus the horse.
Course if one is supplied, so be it……
CPC — 107
LIB — 107
NDP — 107
BLOC — 12
GREEN — 3
IND/oth — 2
Governor General on the phone to Liz
Conservatives – 160
Lieberals – 117
Dipshits – 47
PQ – 11
Libertarian – 3
I’ve given up predicting and taken to praying (even though I’m not the praying type).
Imagine Canada led by little Richie Rich Trudeau who has never run anything in his life and could probably not manage a piss up in a brewery.
The election is degraded into a country wide IQ test: let’s face it, if the country votes for Turdeau (sic) it clearly has a sub-par IQ.
Gord, I deeply value your insight but I don’t think even the most optimistic Tory supporters believe what you’ve suggested. What is it that gives you such confidence of a huge Tory victory?