According to the conventional wisdom, the economy is set to bounce back from its winter-induced slump. It won’t be the first time that the pundits got it wrong.
If this is a bounce back, I would hate to see what a decline looks like. For here we are, almost finished with the second quarter, and the economy doesn’t look much different than it did in the first.
The real world is telling us a different story than the pundits think they see in their crystal balls. Rather than picking up, the economy is still plodding along, not necessarily declining — but not shifting into high gear either.
The only reason the economy is not declining is the amazing ability to fudge all the numbers involved. About the only thing holding the economy up is the ability to print as much money as the next election promise requires and the realization that if the printing press stops , the riots will never be contained. As with the Romans…..Bread and Circus, until it all collapses.
‘Welcome Back, Carter.’
the answer to:
a) a bad sit-com in the USA,
b) a redux of Mr. Carter’s economy via the same broken thinking,
c) both (a) and (b)
now we need to look for root cause and fire up the tweet machine
The figures I read say the real unemployment rate is over 20%, industrial capacity has been diminished through regulation and taxation to where it is no longer an employer of marginally skilled labor, nearly 50% of the nation is on food stamps or some other form of assistance, housing sales/starts have stalled and are in decline, city bankruptcies are common, major industry has been hamstrung by Fed regulatory demands and have downsized, food production has diminished and caused price spikes and shortage, high tax bracket wealth is leaving the country and insane energy policy has created a class of energy-poor Americans –
– yet the only answer this pseudo-soviet regime has is to try to get entangled in another revenue-sucking military conflict, feed the surveillance industrial complex, bail out the wall street oligopoly, open the gate to illegal immigration and strain the struggling social safety net, hamstring recovery with a massive debt load and set in motion divisive domestic pogroms to redirect attention.
When the cash flow runs out for relief spending, what is left will make the dirty 30s look like the good old days.
“Lenina, could you drop by for a few minutes after lunch?”
“Yes, it is in regard to your release of Fidel’s latest.”
“No, just you. I know you are a loyal marxist. No just you.”
Mitt Romney told you this would happen !!
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/price-index-meats-poultry-fish-eggs-rockets-all-time-high
Meatless recovery.
According to shadowstats the unemployment rate is 24% and inflation is close to 10% if using the same methodology as 1980. It’s hard for an economy to recover when a quarter of the workforce is idle.
I am not that sure about the Canadian economy either. Parts of the country are doing exceptionally well (I moved to Regina in February and the city is just Go, Go, Go). I truly do not understand why the TSX stock market is over 15,000 (I am happy for my investments – but what is causing this surge?). Do any of the other commentators at sda know why?
What would the basis be for any significant economic uptick? Personal and Government debt is unsustainable, the demographic is aging and domestic manufacturing industry is uncompetitive. A huge portion of existing demand is funded by government handouts. When all this government spending collapses the economy will retract.
People mention ‘real’ unemployment numbers being much higher than what government talks about. All one has to do is drive down most streets during the day to see how many people are simply wandering around. No jobs. Consider that and then think of how many ‘underemployed’ people there are struggling to provide for their families.
The idea of recovery is promoted by governments who lacking any other ideas still think the carrot will keep people hoping for a brighter tomorrow.
Romney was without doubt the most qualified potential president that was never elected. What he and his group did at Bain Capital was/is what is needed in the USA today. Whether he is still that man from Bain’s day or not I do not know. We will never know as Americans seem to swallow the DEMO koolaid year after year. The next ‘savior’ will be Hillary and she will be sold as the steady alternative to Obama’s shortcomings. The first black succeeded by the first woman as President. It just keeps getting better!
“Romney was without doubt the most qualified potential president that was never elected.”
Ross Perot was at least as qualified as Romney, if not more.
“Everybody got Obama phone.”
I think there are two primary causes. First is the Quantative Easing program in the US. Every month $45B is being given to the Wall St. banks who then go shopping for assets, ie stocks and shares, with free money. This artificial demand (over a half trillion $ per year) is inflating the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and Standard & Poors indexes. Buyers who are spending their own money or their clients’ are going shopping on other stock exchanges in other countries, driving stock prices up as they outbid each other.
Second is that Canada is one of the stablest economies at the moment, we’re headed towards a balanced budget, our debt to GDP ration is better than most so we’re most likely to ride out the unpleasantness that is coming. There are pension plan managers and hedge fund managers who have to invest $B every month. Japan is stagnant, the Eurozone is a mess, the US is bankrupt and overvalued, China is about to have a massive banking bubble blow up in its face, etc. There are very few safe places to invest money right now and Canada is one of them.
OUCH…..
IMF Cuts the US’ Growth Forecast to a Paltry 2%
I’d be taking some off the table about now, looking at that curve. That’s what I’ve been doing. Might have sold some a bit early, but you can have those extra few pennies that reach beyond the peak. Looks like 2008 all over again. Iraq isn’t very pretty and oil could zip up to $150 or higher, just like the last time round. Demand destruction.
This time the cupboard is bare on the stimulus file, so things like Gateway/XL are a must. Autopac is DOA in southern Ontario, what else do they make there? Wynne is doing to Ontario what Obama is doing to America and Shiny Pony and Angry Tom seem to support Choom Gang economics. I’d be asking who is funding their opposition to Gateway.
Moody’s is awaiting Wynne’s budget. All your interest rates are US…and they sure could use a cash infusion in New York. They put the squeeze on Argentina the other day, we won’t get any more favourable treatment being next door, for stupid provincial financial policies.
The World is in contempt of America because of the weasels running the hen house. The world is going to stop supporting the American dollar. Both China & Russia are making plans for that now. Other places already have. When your not a super power any more, than you can’t expect others to honour your currency when you use it like its endless.BY none stop printing presses When the dollar crashes, so will most of the West. The Russians learned well the lessons of Reagan. You don’t need to have a war, you just make sure the economy of your enemy crashes.
Just look at food prices. They are an indicter of how inflation is on the rise in an economy butchered by socialists.
Centralized economies never work.
“The Russians learned well the lessons of Reagan.”
Huh? Are you suggesting Reagan crashed the Soviet economy? What particular lesson did the Russians have to learn from Reagan?
Here is the lesson the Russians teach:
“The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency.”
~Vladimir Lenin
Stanley Dunham met Barrack Obama sr. at the University of Hawaii.
Both were communists, studying the Russian language there in 1960.
You can plan for anything. Just don’t panic when the SHTF.
This month I sold off all service industry assets …. the value gain over 7 years has been 75% to 120% …. next month it will be banks.
I’ll be holding gold and petroleum until they reach 150% of cost again which I expect in 3 to 6 months.
I expect to be buying deflated real estate (again) by the end of summer. If it does not deflate quick enough … I’ll take the capital loss and get effin RevCan off my back.
About the stock market indexes going up like crazy, which more and more experts find puzzling,
Last week the following was in a news letter I subscribe to,
[…]a worthwhile commentary by Larry Levin of Trading Advantage today entitled “Bull” putting the present stock bull market in context:
1. S&P500 has nearly tripled from the 6 March 2009 lows.
2. 5 year rolling return has been 5th largest in 140 years.
3. Current bull market is second longest in 80 years.
4. Current rally has spent 80 weeks above the 200 day moving average. Over the last 50 years, no other rally has lasted this long.
5. All against a context of an economy struggling to breathe. […]