19 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

  1. Bust they will, and it will be as spectacular as the ascent.
    The major question of their future is how they emerge from the bust. Will they continue on the path to freer and more open society, or will some phenomena emerge to plunge them into another self destruct orgy of stupidity. Stay tuned.

  2. Past is prolog. Read chinese history for likely scenarii. Here’s a hint: serious fubar plus refugees by the million.

  3. Fred2:
    Ok I’ll play spelling nazi for a minute:
    These are the stats for American and British English (plural of scenario)
    COCA BNC
    scenarios 3683 216
    scenaria 0 0
    scenarii 0 0
    Wiktionary reports that the plural of scenario is scenarios. It also reports that the “hypercorrect” plural of scenario is held to be scenarii (which is nonstandard and rare) since its etymology is Italian.

  4. If you’re going to bet on which nation of a BILLION+ people will crash and which will continue to rise, bet China for the crash and bet India for continuing growth.
    For all its many flaws, a (corrupt) multi-party democracy like India will endure longer and enrich many more of its citizens than a (corrupt) single party dictatorship like China.
    And as we sit here, China’s single-child policy has resulted in approx. 30 million MORE males under age 35 than females …30 million young Chinese males without dates; what could possibly go wrong?!

  5. 30 million young Chinese males
    –
    Some may be able to date 1 million Japanese women.
    The public has blamed everything from smothering mothers to absent, overworked fathers, from school bullying to the lackluster economy, from academic pressure to video games.
    A leading psychiatrist claims that one million Japanese men are hikikomori, locked in their rooms,
    which, if true, translates into roughly 1 percent of the population.
    http://www.policymic.com/articles/73111/why-thousands-of-young-japanese-men-are-locking-themselves-in-their-rooms

  7. If internal consumption in China was the driving force within their economy then more concern would be warranted. At the end of the day China is still a dictatorship and the people will work for food if necessary. Anything otherwise would require a revolution and I suspect government can still silence that.
    Obama has consistently been printing money for years now. Almost every economy in the world is following suit. Is China any different than Japan? I suggest Japan is worse. Whatever triggers the next collapse will most likely come from without. It is laughable as western pundits try to ‘educate’ the new capitalists on the block (China) as to how to manage their economy. Truly a joke as their economies are in many ways in worse shape.

  8. I can see why Justin Trudeau admires the Chinese government,they DO have a way of getting things done on a scale that is simply mind-boggling.
    While we in Canada can’t build a backyard shed or cut down a tree in our yard without months of consultation with civic officials, in a year China builds 10 million housing units.
    And behind all the wonderful construction projects, the view is softened by that lovely sea mist that seems to hang over everything, even inland cities.
    Absolutely fascinating video,I especially appreciated the comment of the rocker who said “nothing will change”.

  9. Given the payback the Chinese military has in mind for Japan’s women, I don’t think “date” is the right term.
    The CPC-controlled media has been feeding the plebes a steady stream of hatred and conspiracy theories against Japan, Taiwan (ROC) and the West (the U.S. primarily) for many decades. If the proverbial dung hits the fan domestically, the pressure release valve will most likely be expansion into the Pacific. It’s certainly not what the moneymakers at the top want (by their very nature, fat cats love the status quo), but much of the military leadership is prepared (and in some cases eager) to flex their muscles.
    Think of it as a continental-scale face-saving exercise to right centuries of wrongs (real or imagined). Also, sadly, a culling of fertile males.
    If you were stuck with a glut of massive steel production capacity, a navy shipyard would be a good place to send it. Or perhaps a heavy armour assembly line…

  10. That was a very interesting video. Suddenly the moves being made by Russia and the Chicoms to form a coalition make a lot more sense. They’re both broke and afraid.
    Historically this leads to war. Unhistorically, this time everybody has nukes, ICBMs and probably the willingness to use them. My money says Truman was a better guy than whatever lifetime apparatchik is running China these days. Truman was 100% for sure a better man than Obama, who will do whatever is good for Obama.
    Given China’s history, this is a really excellent time to not be Japanese.
    Given Canada’s history, we won’t wake up to smell the coffee until looooong after we should have, then there will be all kinds of scrambling to gear up to a war footing.
    Dear Prime Minister Harper, may I suggest a crash program to create the 2015 edition of the Avro Arrow? And maybe some stealthy ships to fly them off would be a really good idea. You can pay for it with the CBC’s annual budget and maybe 10% of Quebec’s usual tax transfer.

  11. Civil Defense and Fallout shelters might be better investments for the little guys on the sidelines?

  12. When the web of international financial shenanigans finally unravels, China will be in a better position to bounce back than the west.
    Most of their debt has been incurred to build factories and infrastructure, which can be retooled to produce economic goods and services.
    Meanwhile, the west has been maxing out the credit cards on vanity industries and professions (like ‘diversity consultants’), and trying to monetize social media trends (you’d think people would have learned their lesson about tech companies that don’t actually have any revenue stream during the LAST dotcom bubble…).

  13. “…..to create the 2015 edition of the Avro Arrow?”
    Already at it. The F35 program is fulfilling the same parallel features of the Arrow program.
    Excessive cost over-runs and delays.
    This fella explains it better than I can……I do detect a bias but then everyone has one….he does have a good argument.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxDSiwqM2nw

  14. I was thinking maybe they could skip the whole “cost over-run” part and go directly to the “kicks Commie @ss” part by getting the thieving Americans out of it, and because Conservatives aren’t Liberals. Possibly optimistic of me, but hope springs eternal.
    I read up a bit on the F-35. The thing has a drive shaft in it that has to withstand roughly thirty thousand (30,000) horsepower. That seems a bit… what’s the word I’m looking for… finicky? fragile? f-ing idiotic? to be putting it in a combat aircraft. I mean, how many times a week do you have to xray the damn thing for cracks? Can you imagine the fasteners used to screw it together? Who’s going to service it, the usual acne covered teenagers?
    Imagine it sucking in a goose. ka-POW.
    The F-117 Stealth was created in the 1970s and built in the 1980’s. The B2 was planned in the 1980s and built in the 1990s. What was absurd cutting edge computer tech in the 1970’s is easy-peasy now, you can probably run those radar equations on a laptop in 2014.
    How hard would it be for Canada to design and build a reasonably stealthy interceptor these days? It doesn’t have to Do Everything, all it has to do is go shoot down Bears and Antonovs coming over the North Pole. Because that’s what the Russians are STILL flying these days, Bears and Antonovs.
    My reading of things is we need aircraft that we can get a couple hundred copies of, and fly them in the winter time up north. The “Global Peacekeeper” cr@p is all fine and dandy when Uncle Sam is guarding North America, but increasingly the Pax Americana is looking pretty shaky. Trouble in China and Russia equals high probability of a shootin’ war somewhere in the Pacific sometime fairly soon.
    What we want is for the Chicoms and the Russians to be looking over here and seeing a Whole Lot of Pain. We want the Americans looking North and seeing us armed, dangerous and saying “Whatever!” to their foreign policy of the week.
    Right now we look like an all-you-can-eat buffet with a welcome mat in front of it. That ain’t good.

  15. “It doesn’t have to Do Everything, all it has to do is go shoot down Bears and Antonovs coming over the North Pole.”
    Probably the F106 which had that tasking from the ’60’s onward to the 80’s is adequate. Lotsa legs and lotsa speed.
    A review of requirements seems in order.
    However the current need to visually ID, involves sub/transonic maneuver and a gun fight…..
    IDF pilots generally rely on the gun solution.
    The IDF F86 Sabres triumphed over faster MiG’s due to maneuverability. IDF currently uses F16’s, F15’s and K’fir…locally produced versions of the Dassault Mirage……..each with a separate role…..

  16. As I keep saying we need to go big time on a Nuclear weapons defence.
    In a normal down turn era such as this, the US would be expanding in its dominate phase.
    Nukes have pretty much made that a losing proposition if its land you want intact.
    Banks are stupid for lending money to build housing people can’t afford.
    What gave the west such a head start was after WW2 was the boom in cheap housing.
    Before that owning a home was almost impossible. Now the Chinese are doing the same except having no realistic view of the cost of homes for working people. stupidities Bush & Obama have tried that ignited the 2008 crash . Forcing companies to make homes no one can pay for.So many rules & regulations the cost of everything becomes beyond the means of normal folks.What was worse basing policy on racial quotas for homes.

  17. “Now the Chinese are doing the same except having no realistic view of the cost of homes for working people.”
    Rev, the price of apartments in those empty towers is going to tank so freakin’ hard that Chinese working people will be able to afford them.
    Of course at that point the problem will be that nobody is working…
    And yeah, the Chicom hierarchy is utterly devoid of morals or sense. Like Clinton, but turbo-nitrous version.

  19. China will find out, as Obumbum and his banker Bernaki and the EU are about to realize – you can’t expand the economy and fuel growth with BS – valueless fait and endless credit which demand payment in tangable productivity – the credit used to expand the economy has intrest which will kill its productivity – the trade off of fiat systems.

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