A Michael Totten interview with Martin Kramer;
Iran wants to create uncertainty there because oil is the only thing it has. Iran has nothing else—some carpets and pistachio nuts, and that’s it. Their population continues to grow, their needs continue to grow, and their grand ambitions continue to grow. So this, I think, is the first thing they would do with it. All it takes is to create a crisis or a succession of crises.
Iran knows it can’t wrest sole hegemony in the Gulf from the United States, but it wants to create a kind of dual hegemony shared with the United States. Nobody knows where the lines would run, but they wouldn’t run just five to ten miles off the coast Iran into the waters of the Persian Gulf. Iran would like to see its share extend to both sides of the Gulf, to effectively create a kind of push and shove between the United States and Iran.
A lot of people on the Arab side of the Gulf will say they feel Iran’s breath on their faces. The United States is there now, but the British were there once, too, and now they’re gone. The Persians are always there and will always be there. So we’ll see a lot of hedging. Iran would be perceived as the rising power and the United States a declining power.
It’s like any other combat situation. The guy with the biggest gun wins!
With a lame duck America (the administration, not the force) shuffling off to Buffalo, one wonders who or what group will step into the breach and face the flying carpets of modern day Persia? Do you think that if Canada, for some reason, steps up the UAE will rethink their banning of Canadian air ops out of their country?
Better get our F-35s on line soon, I guess.
So who gives a shit? Let Iran and Iraq nuke it out with each other. What do we need those crazy jihadis for anyway? Let. Them. Rot.
DUG
how much would you like to pay for a litre GAS????
The West should use up as much of the ME oil as possible while developing secure domestic sources . . . and then instigate a war between the Persians and the Arabs, the Shia & the Sunni mobs – they hate each others guts so it shouldn’t take much to get them all hot & bothered & ready to go kinetic.
Then we get rich selling them weapons. The world is a much safer place when the muslims are killing each other instead of every else.
Fred:
Get rich selling them weapons…hmmm.
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/US-Confirms-60-Billion-Arms-Sales-Package-for-Saudi-Arabia–105375438.html
“US Confirms $60 Billion Arms Sales Package for Saudi Arabia
The Obama administration announced plans Wednesday to sell up to $60 billion worth of advanced fighter aircraft, helicopters and related weapons systems to Saudi Arabia. The package is aimed at helping Saudi Arabia deal with potential threats from Iran and regional terrorism.
Under its terms, the United States will provide Saudi Arabia with 84 advanced F-15 fighter planes with electronics and weapons packages tailored to Saudi needs. An additional 70 F-15’s already in Saudi hands will be upgraded to match the capabilities of the new planes.
Saudi Arabia will purchase a huge fleet of nearly 200 Apache, Blackhawk and other U.S. military helicopters, along with a vast array of radar systems, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, and guided bombs.”
Evidently, the Obama administration feels comfortable enough with the House of Saud to make a regional bulwark against an expansionist motivated Iran.
Recall the Saudis are just a short hop across the Straits of Hormuz.
The F-15 sports the following:
Performance
* Maximum speed: Mach 2.5+ (1,650+ mph, 2,650+ km/h)
* Ferry range: 2,400 mi (2,100 nmi, 3,900 km) with conformal fuel tank and three external fuel tanks
* Service ceiling: 60,000 ft (18,200 m)
* Rate of climb: 50,000+ ft/min (254+ m/s)
I rather suspect the Straits of Hormuz have something to do with it! ie 17 million bbl/day from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran etc.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/world_oil_transit_chokepoints/background.html
Prosit!
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
The Arabs need to decide whose breath they will tolerate. ‘Cause right now they’re blowing up the faces of those who would stand between them and Persians. If you want Iran in your face, well… good luck with that.
“Iran wants to create uncertainty there because oil is the only thing it has.’
Ditto Russia, plus they have vodka, that’s it. So uncertainly drives up the price of oil for Iran and Russia, their only source of revenue. Without some kind of intervention we’ll see the price of gas skyrocket faster than McGuinty’s windmill subsidies.
What to do? When Rob Ford cleans up the gravy train in Toronto, we can make him Secretary of the UN and fix this problem too. He likes to eat; the UN would be the perfect posting. Plus he’s very cosmopolitan, at his victory celebration last night “The crowd was a representative mix, ethnically speaking, of the city the new Mayor is now to govern. Turbaned Sikhs partied with Chinese families. Black kids and white kids chased each other around the tables. Jews, Muslims, and Christians cheered and applauded Mr. Ford’s speech.”
Believe me this is what scares the progressive TransNationalists about Rob, he is going to be the ultimate Tranzi and finesse Obama out the Secretary of the UN job in 2013. He’ll be singing Kumbayah with the Mad Mullahs and toasting nazdarovye with the Russians before you know it.
Hans, with respect to the Saudi purchase of F-15s, I find it interesting that they would purchase and referb so many air superiority aircraft considering Iran’s air force is pretty much non-existent. A much better plan would be for more air-to-dirt fighters that could take out missile batteries, radar sites and anything else that could aid Iran in extending it’s military reach across the straits.
I imagine Saudi Arabia would have something to say about this.
The US should stay out of it and let the sharks eat each other (unless Israel is threatened).
Just my thoughts.
Texas Canuck -I think that the Apache helicopters the Saudi’s are buying would be helpful in the air to ground attack role.
The only air force that one would need F-15’s against in the area is Israel’s and I’m curious what the Israeli reaction to the huge aircraft sale to Saudi Arabia has been.
I was going to say,Iran,like Iraq,would be easy to steamroll desertstormtroopers.
Thought I’d google first.
Good thing:
http://ivmp.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/atgaaab2q7wnqyyzaomsos_h-91yrsjg7oy7xbpxrkgeanlyop3pvvoaimfvizidqphz4bc1n_68lqmlgvrmvwisctifajtu9vcig80lr0u5tatot0yl4ldmazmubg.jpg
I thought the Iranians had a mad-on for just about everybody around them, including the Saudis, no?
google it. ‘operation merlin CIA’.
http://mensnewsdaily.com/2009/06/15/operation-merlin-clinton-cia-helped-irans-nuclear-program/
the americans GAVE Iran the blueprints, so why all the whining?
beagle, atomic bombs aren’t hard to build.
The first one was built nearly 70 years ago when 21st Century technology was only dreamed of.
The difficulty lies in obtaining the exact pure weapons grade materials to build one out of.
Blueprints are irrelevant.
Sherriff Smith
[….It’s like any other combat situation. The guy with the biggest gun wins!……]
WW1–Germany had Big Bertha (a monster howitser) which swiftly reduced the massive Belgian Fortresses but failed to defeat the Fortress of Verdun……. the Paris Gun shelled Paris from 60 miles.
WW2–Germany had its massive Gustav and later the K5E(Anzio Annie)www.diggerhistory.info/pages-weapons/anzio_annie.htm
The first Tiger Tank fell victim to the already obsolete British 6-pounder(with improved ammo).
The massive Japanese super battleships succumbed to air attack despite mounting the biggest rifles afloat (18″). Actually the Brits had deployed the 2 Wolfe class monitors with one 18″ tube each in WW1.
Oz
Yes building a nuclear weapon is not that difficult….but miniturizing it small enough to fit into a missle nose cone rather than needing a big-a$$ aircraft like the B29 is real tricky.
That trick took the soviets decades to pull off and even then the boosters necessary made the Soviet space programme easy. The US had a major problem in that regard…and had to design, develope and built the Saturn V….
Yes building a nuclear weapon is not that difficult….but miniturizing it small enough to fit into a missle nose cone rather than needing a big-a$$ aircraft like the B29 is real tricky.
I don’t think that delivery by aircraft or missile is necessary, but there are plenty of aircraft that have greater lift capability today greater than B-29s did nearly 70 years ago.
Cargoe containers are just as good for delivery, but if Iran chose to use a missile I’m sure that they would have little difficulty in getting the architechture right considering the help they have had from the Russians and the Norks who have probably done almost all of the work from scratch until now anyway.
Basically all the Iranians have donated toward their nuclear ambitions are the money, the venue, and the will to get it done.
They can’t even fabricate the spare parts they need for their aging F-14s.
If … nothing if about it … they have nukes supplied by China and delivered on Nork ships that were given free passage .. demanded by the UN and abbetted by Obama’s edict.
You folks forget this is less about power than it is about this factions idea of an Apocalypse. With the cleansing of the World of Jews & ALL unbelievers.
The brining in of the 12th Caliphate by the hidden Mahdi. They believe this like you do the Earth revolves around the sun.
Secular reasons for Iran’s objectives is fine, but they aren’t built that way.
They have a different logic.
It nuts to think they would do what we would.
JMO
Stratfor Intelligence produces interesting reports on the ME. In my opinion most governments actions are economic in nature because ultimately they cannot retain power unless their people are fed. Iran uses surrogates such as Hezbolah in Lebanon and Shite clerics in Iraq to accomplish their goals. The chances of an Iranian army invading neighbours is very limited.
Interesting concepts such as the USA attacking Iran are circulating more lately. It would give Obama a needed lift domestically. It plays into the USA strengths in the air and sea. A ground war could be avoided with Iran being neutralized to a great extent. It reinforces Saudi and Israeli dominance in the ME.
beagle