… most studies measuring polar bear survival have relied on a method called “mark and recapture”.
This involves repeatedly catching polar bears in a population over several years, which is cost and time-intensive.
Because of that, the information scientists have gathered on polar bear populations varies greatly: for example, datasets span up to four decades in the best studied populations in Western Hudson Bay and Southern Beaufort Sea, but are almost non-existent for bears in some parts of Russia.
[…]
However, these projections are essentially educated guesses…
So, Dr Peter Molnar, Professor Andrew Derocher and colleagues from the University of Alberta and York University, Toronto came up with a solution that avoids the persistent problem referred to in scientific circles as “their own lyin’ eyes…”
“We developed a model…”
You can probably figure out how that one ends.
Meanwhile, in related “lyin’ eyes” developments: Watch the arctic sea ice melt for month of May.
South pole, too.
And there are frost warnings here for later this week.
A suggestion, if I may. When the “tipping point” finally arrives, and the left are preoccupied with chasing oil company and banking executives through the streets — we sneak quietly out our back doors and head to the universities.
But first, I say we shoot Tom Friedman and save the Chinese the trouble. (I hasten to add – after a fair trial and organ recipients have been arranged.)
How long ago was it that enviro lefties started using the image of indians and eskimos, implying that they were more in touch with nature and knew far more than the despoilers, ie the white man. Gee, now it turns out that as far as polar bears are concerned, these folks don’t know sh*t or are just shills for big oil or some such thing.
“…only considering scientific information such as the Canadian Wildlife Service’s data, and overlooking Inuit traditional knowledge.”
Counting animals is considered “traditional knowledge”?
I don’t understand the anger being directed at Friedman. Granted, from a purely North American perspective, it looks absurd, but if you look at the world as a whole, there is a very clear method to his madness.
The truth is that the Chinese ARE doing a better job of getting things done than most democratic countries are. As a revolutionary political party, the Chi-coms are sensitive to the fact that they must deliver or else they will face a revolution themselves. And, as much as I hate the regime for just about everything – includng North Korea – they have improved the standard of life dramatically.
Friedman erred by picking China in particular. The right will inevitably see that as support for Communism and other leftist activities. Indeed what I have written above will almost certainly earn me a leftist reputation.
But it really isn’t. Friedman could easily have substituted 1980s South Korea or Taiwan or Chile (under that rightist-favorite Pinochet) and made the exact same point. Some dictatorships are more effective than democracies. In today’s world, that gap is evident between democratic India and Commie China.
Democracies do muddle things up. And regional interests often trump national interests, especially in the US where, for example, the entire free trade economic policy is being held ransom by a bunch of inefficient farmers. The South Korean dictatorial regime is particularly noteworthy because it kept its focus on building an efficient competitive nation, instead of pandering to agricultural interest groups.
Friedman is not entirely incorrect though he will undoubtedly be called a priviliged leftist. The truth is that the Chinese government has exhibited more direction and determination than the US has in the past two decades. Much like the right-wing regime that helped South Korea turn into one of the most advanced nations in the world. Get past the China example, and you will see that he has a point.
Dictatorships are all well and good as long as my guy is at the helm. The big Owe isn’t my guy.
Don’t recycle his organs, he’s a lefty: they’ve got diseases!
“Canada has about two-thirds of the world’s polar bears, but their conservation assessment of polar bears didn’t take climate change seriously,” says Dr Molnar, a flaw noted by the IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group last year.”
Translation they are heretics……
Banyan is confusing that China demonstrates that 40 of peace is more productive than 70 years of war.
Pinochet is an example of a prudent dictator. Policies are the difference.
Obama is trying this but he is not a “Cincinatus”…..more a Stalin.
North Korea is the poster boy for Stalinism.
BTW it is my position there is no margin/profit in making Fiedman (or anyone else) a martyr. It is better he simply fade like Nasser than get a fancy funeral/etc like JFK.
And if you actually go and measure the polar bear populations, rather than use the “Guess & Model” technique, you find that bear populations have increases massively in the last 30 years.
Much of what “banyan” says is correct, but the Chinese government also has a policy of ruthless suppression of any dissent. Under the “China for a while” scenario, most of Greenpeace,PETA,ACORN would be in prison.
Oh yes, and where exactly would you have the CFAW government re-enact Tiananmen Square?
In today’s world, that gap is evident between democratic India and Commie China.
We’ll see who has the gap when all those Chinese men are looking for wives and the aging in the Chinese population, because of their one child policy, is the worst on the planet.
Can you say “implosion”?
That’s when their cheap worker advantage will fly away and China will be stuck with their well deserved reputation for cheating clients with Quality Fade.
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/interview_don-t-make-excuses-for-poor-quality-made-in-china_1284898
So if the polar ice disappears, the polar bears will simply do what they have always done: migrate south to Churchill and feed on tourists. We could even ship busloads of Greenpeacers up there to “commune” with them. It’d be a win-win, I tell ya.
I’m taking a lecture series right now on the history of ancient Rome, specifically the Roman revolution and transition from republic to empire, and it’s eerie how closely the events correspond to what’s happening in the US right now. The time scale was much longer in Rome, but the pattern is frighteningly close.
Ah but I didn’t mean to say that democratic India will never catch up. I am merely pointing out the difference that the governance system has had so far on two nations of approximately the same size that started at the roughly the same starting point.
What the future holds is not known to us. However, there are many in India, from the bottom of society to the top, who are envious of the progress in China vis-a-vis India. I suspect some of the would love a dictator in power for about a decade or so.
However, as things stand, the dictatorship model appears to be more successful at “getting things done” than the democratic one.
More on measurements vs. models:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/24/lord-monckton-wins-global-warming-debate-at-oxford-union/#more-19868
“Lord Monckton…drew immediate laughter and cheers when he described himself as “Christopher Walter, Third Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, scholar, philanthropist, wit, man about town, and former chairman of the Wines and Spirits Committee of this honourable Society”. At that point his cummerbund came undone. He held it up to the audience and said, “If I asked this House how long this cummerbund is, you might telephone around all the manufacturers and ask them how many cummerbunds they made, and how long each type of cummerbund was, and put the data into a computer model run by a zitty teenager eating too many doughnuts, and the computer would make an expensive guess. Or you could take a tape-measure and” – glaring at the opposition across the despatch-box – “measure it!” [cheers].
Lord Monckton said that real-world measurements, as opposed to models, showed that the warming effect of CO2 was a tiny fraction of the estimates peddled by the UN’s climate panel”
I would not rely on “getting things done” as a good definition of success. If you want to prove dictatorships are better then use some objective measures of success to rank democratic and authoritarian governments. There are exceptions but the main trend is that capitalism and democracy rank higher in all area.
Lord Monckton said that real-world measurements, as opposed to models, showed that the warming effect of CO2 was a tiny fraction of the estimates peddled by the UN’s climate panel”
~LC Bennett
Even the real world temperature measurements are so distorted by the Urban Heat Island effect as to be usleless for predictions.
Too bad the raw temperature data that all the computer models are based on no longer exists.
What we do know, from ice cores, is that warming drives CO2, not the other way around.
You’re right, Oz. The UHI effect has never been properly corrected nor has the great die-off of stations that replaced rural, high elevation locations with more urban, lower elevation ones. Both have skewed the results towards higher temps. OTOH, the poor quality of raw data and attempts to force it into compliance with the theory, makes the plateau/drop even more embarrassing for the warmers.
A problem which noone in the sciences likes to
talk about, much, but which is strongly relevant,
is the tendency for even experienced scientists
to see what they want to see. I read, a couple of months ago,
an article to the effect that medical
researchers would be more positive toward a new drug
if they expected to profit from its introduction,
than otherwise. Again, last night I was reading an
account from 2000 about a review of the National
Ignition Facility, in the US, where reviewers with
ties to the project or to its principals, were
much more positive about it than those with
no linkages. Similarly, I remember a talk by
an experimental high-energy physicist about a
cross section, or whatever, and how it had changed
by about a factor of 5 over a few years (as the
systematic errors became better understood) with
the “best” theoretical value lagging experiment
by about 9 months.
What separates a good scientist from the also-rans
is the cold and fishy eye with which he or she
regards, not only his frenemies’ results, but his
own.
Integrity is essential to the success of the scientific enterprise.
The pressures on climate “scientists” to conform
to the AGM meme is enormous. How many can resist?
Banyan – Perhaps you can’t see the forest for the trees, re: China’s great economic/middle class strides. Seems plain to my eyes that it is because of “greedy” capitalism; big ugly multi-national corporations that moved their production offshore resulting in – in fact, a more miraculous redistribution of wealth than Obama’s uptopian dream could ever accomplish, even if Woody Allen’s dictatorial fantasy were reality. My take on socialism/communism is that it insists on making eveyone equal — equally poor. Look at history, the latest example being Greece and the EU
garrysworld – Perhaps you should re-read my post before taking potshots. I am not advocating socialism or communism. All I have stated is that some dictatorial regimes (both left-wing and right-wing) are more efficient than democracies. Do not mistake this for tacit support of the human rights abuses that Mao (on the left) or Pinochet (on the right) inflicted on their countries. There is no advocacy of communism/socialism here. Merely an ackowledgment that democracy can get messy and frustrating.
This is evident in the fact that the Commie dictatorial regime in China or the South Korean rightist military regime have done a better job of making their countries competitive, particularly when you compare them to long-term democracies like India. Indians are as capable as the Chinese or the Koreans – as is evident in most western nations where they have settled – but the rigors of democracy, which, it should be noted, have been crucial to maintaining social cohesion and unity in India (as opposed to a Maoist purge) have stilted India’s economic growth and impeded an improvement in the quality of life.
Indeed, you will find similar examples in the US, where regionalism and interest groups often end up working against the national interest. Democracy allows Not In My Backyard – ism. Dictatorships dont. In the US, various leaders and groups insist on tying the whole country’s proverbial hand behind its back. Every other year, we witness the collapse of free trade talks on a global level because American farmers want their subsidies. It flies in the face of capitalism but it is a reality that neither of the two political parties wants to take them on. After all, the Republicans presided over 3 failed attempts in the last decade. And we all know where the democrats stand on this issue.
Uggabugga !! Models !!
“We suggest the development of mechanistic models aimed at predicting reproduction and survival as a function of the environment.”
What you need for any model or theory are variables which are measurable & which change values.
Here you have for example an environmental variable “fasting period”
“Hudson Bay becomes ice-free every year for approximately four months between July and November. This forces polar bears ashore, where they must survive on the fat reserves they have acquired during the rest of the year while preying on seals on the sea ice. Due to increased spring temperatures sea ice break-up in western Hudson Bay is now occurring 2½-3 weeks earlier than in the early 1980s. This effectively has prolonged the fasting period ”
ETC
http://preview.tinyurl.com/28dmvgc
http://www.biology.ualberta.ca/faculty/andrew_derocher/?Page=3248
Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change
Genetics shows that Polar bears became a distinct species about 600,000 yrs ago. That means they have survived at least THREE interglacials where there was NO Arctic Ice (no SUVs either) and the Gulf of Mexico stretched north to across the Great Plains and into Alberta & Saskatchewan. Seals ditto. The idea that if there is no sea ice all the seals will give birth at sea and the pups will drown. WHAT? Do they think seals are as stupid as lieberals? In the southern oceans the seals, walruses etc etc give birth on the beaches. In the numbers they congregate the bears (if they had bears there) would think they’d stumbled into a Burger King but there would still be enough seals to survive based on sheer numbers. That would happen in the North and as there were no Burger Kings 600,000 yrs I’ll even go so far as to suggest that is exactly what happened. Alas and despite the best AGW projections BOTH seals and those pesky bears survived and will again. At this point in time my concern is knowing that if KATLA and HEKLA are next to erupt the hunting areas of the polar bears will include the southern shores of Lake Erie. I can almost guarantee you that modern humans are not nearly as adaptive.
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/11/5053
Complete mitochondrial genome of a Pleistocene jawbone unveils the origin of polar bear
Seems like the limo marxists like Friedman are getting a little ahead of themselves. Before they can have their “two year window” of crisis opportunism under military law to sort out who gets a bullet and who doesn’t for the good of the people, there is the small problem of faking or manipulating a high level assassination attempt by Tea Party Republican zealots or reasonable facsimiles against a suitable high value target. Maybe Woody has already written the script.
Why is it that the left, who believe in Darwin’s theory, are also sure the bears won’t be able to adapt?
China is not a communist state, it is fascist state.
I.e. state controlled capitalism, in which the political leaders control & cooperate with business and the puppet union leaders (i.e. themselves).
Certainly very efficient, but completely ruthless, and with no regard for the rights of the common man.
India is a democracy in name only, and can perhaps more accurately be described as elite controlled mob rule.
A society in which:
– 2/3 of the population has no idea of what they’re voting for, since cannot read, and are thus paid to vote by the parties
– 90% do no pay income taxes
– Corruption is rampant, all through society
– Terrorism is alive and well in many parts of the country (essentially a small civil war is in progress)
– Political murders happen daily
– There is no one-law-for-all, it all depends on your community/religion
– Poverty, illness, and death are present and in-your-face everywhere, at the same time as the country builds nuclear subs and space rockets, and nobody cares!
– The caste system is alive and well
cannot be called a democracy!
Finally, there are not a few educated, middle-class, Indians who would not mind an enlightened despot. Compared to the present system, almost anything would be better. (Many look back on Indira’s emergency rule with admiration.)
How long was that video, 10 seconds? What it shows, if anything, I have no idea.
How was it made and who produced it?