Medicines and medical practices (particularly improved water and sanitation) led to a similar baby boom in the developing world in the latter half of the 20th century. Heinsohn demonstrated that when 30 percent or more of a population is aged 15-29, you have too many young men with bad attitudes, and the result is a jump in crime, terrorism and civil unrest. Heinsohn showed that in 90 percent of the 67 of the countries that have the 30 percent “Youth Bulge” (as demographers put it) you have massive unrest. Moreover, 13 of the 27 nations with the largest Youth Bulge are Moslem. In fact, most of the Youth Bulge is found in Africa and in Moslem nations.
Heinsohn also points that many historical upheavals were attributable, at least in part, to the Youth Bulge. These would include the American and French Revolutions and many other uprisings in places like Ireland and Latin America. The current growth of Youth Bulge can largely be blamed on Western efforts to improve the lives and health of people in the developing world. No good deed goes unpunished.
“…too many young men with bad attitudes”
…this wouldn’t be linked to a rise in the levels of testosterone would it?
China just this week announced there are too many Chinese males being born.
They need to stop aborting their female babies.
If Heinsohn is correct then it sounds like “Trouble in Yellow River country” in a decade or two!
and
unemployment
drugs
crime
broken families
poverty
I’ve always thought that too many Jason Cherniaks cause unrest.
In Sociology school we studied about rats, and how they once put more rats into an anclosure than the normal , genetically correct, number of rats in a certain cubic yard of space or whatever was the correct number. Sure as shootin’ the rats went on a killing rampage, each and every time more rats were dropped in, and each time brought their numbers down to a static level, which was then deemed to be the correct biological loading of the territory , genetically correct memory being the determinant.
Now, when one examines the killings in the gangs and ghettoes of the world, we can perhaps make some comparisons. n’est ce pas ?
Well, I have a problem with this analysis. It’s a bivariate – two variables. Only two; cause and effect. (Many) young men –> trouble. Life is never that simple; life doesn’t operate within bivariates. Only machines do: flip the switch –>the light is on.
Most pre-industrial societies were very careful NOT to permit population expansion. They had numerous techniques – such as removal of wife after birth for a year or two…etc.
The only societies that had population growth problems was the West – because its rich geographic environment permitted population growth.
BUT – it took generations to develop the technology to prevent infectious diseases within this large population, or produce larger crops etc..So, this would lead to famine, wars, and loss of population.
Most of the other non-western societies were pretty population stable.
The Middle East was stable until after the World Wars and the development of oil-based industrialism. Then, it moved into a rapid urbanization and population growth. BUT – this growth in the young population isn’t the cause of trouble. It’s the tribal political system which excludes the majority from meaningful economic and political participation in their economy.
Same with Africa – it;s not the youthfulness of the population but the fact that this population has no economic, social or political power; is kept poor, there’s no middle class developed.
I don’t think that the world wars were caused by a surplus ‘youth’ population. My own view was that the west’s ‘early industrialism’ had reached its structural limits. It operated around the isolate nation-state and colonies; and a ‘mechanical’ industrialism rather than ‘digital networked industrialism’.
Changing from one structure to another is always a violent action. My own view is that the mov’t out of mechanical industrialism to digital or networked global industrialism, was the ’cause’ of the world wars. Not a surplus of youth.
ET makes some good points. Read ‘America Alone’, by Mark Steyn. The scariest book I have ever read. Why ? Because of the Appologists, not the so-called Biologist, including the one below.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
~~ ALERT ~~
David Suzuki is doing a series of interviews on The Weather Network. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/twn/releases/20070112.htm
The big news here is, Chris Sinclair invites our feed-back.
E-mail: dlangton@pelmorex.com (the boss at TWN)
and
E-mail: jsmallbridge@davidsuzuki.org (some person)
At current rates, by the year 2020 China will have 300 million more men than women.
maybe China want to build the biggest army?
I’d say there will be some fights at closing time over there.
I believe the view is that there will be 30 million more men than women… http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6254763.stm
still by most accounts, it’s enough loose cannons to start any ol’ revolution, and this isn’t taking into account the rise of the “modern woman”, that may want no part of staying home to raise the kid, and opts to have a career in the sewing factory instead. (for example)
Another thought is that with so many “extra” men, the army may be the route these people will have to take. Soooo, 30 million horny young chinese coming to a neighborhood near you? The party in power must see the folly in all this… the question remains, what will they do with these young horny gents?
marc in calgary. these horny young gents are there to look after their parents in their old age. That is the reason given for the selection of boys over girls. So a two fold problem. Who is going to look after the elderly in China and at the same time deal with these gentlemen.
“The forces at play in the Middle East are beyond the Geopolitical Friars’ Club. The median age
in Gaza is 15.8 years old. How likely is it that any of those bespoke Palestinian “moderates”
who’ve been permanent fixtures on CNN and BBC Middle East discussion panels for 30 years
have any meaningful sway over a population of unemployed uneducated teenage boys
raised by a death cult?”
“I believe the view is that there will be 30 million more men than women… http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6254763.stm
still by most accounts, it’s enough loose cannons to start any ol’ revolution,”
It’s happened before the Taiping Rebellion and the Boxer Rebellion both occured when large surplus of extra males in China (due to mass infanticide of female babies following some nasty famines) was reaching adulthood. Before the WWI and WWII they were probably the bloddiest wars in history.
I suspect that there must be officials within the current government of China that know that the exsisting regime can’t last. The big question is wether or not the seemingly inevitable transition is peaceful or not.
Personaly I’m hoping the Chinese wind up building a “bottom up” (with a lot of power weilded at the local level) system of democracy that is uniquely theirs. There seem to be forces at work in China that are pushing for that but the current government isn’t having any of it.