Also: Brian Crossman: Magic Eight Ball prediction edition for 2024. “Will the current Prime Minister continue to be a dumpster fire?” “SIGNS POINT TO YES.”
The past weekend proved to be a close-run thing for the Alberta electrical grid, and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is making statements resolving he won’t allow that to happen here.
Specifically, after having nearly completely divested itself of coal-fired power production, Alberta’s dramatic buildout of wind and solar proved impossible to keep the lights on in that province when the chips were down and temperatures hit -35 C, or worse.
Alberta’s close brush with possible rolling blackouts stiffens Moe’s resolve to keep the lights on. On Monday, he announced that SaskPower has relit a shuttered coal unit near Estevan, one the feds had supposedly forced to retire Dec. 31, 2021.
Also note: Saskatchewan has about a million cars registered. So a good bet is Alberta probably has four million. What would have happened if four million EVs were all plugged in last weekend?
If you missed them, these five stories, in order, chronicle what happened in Alberta.
Most of Alberta’s wind fleet slowly shut down Thursday night, but not for lack of wind
Grid Alert 1:
Alberta goes under grid alert for just under 5 hours on Jan. 12
Grid Alert 2:
Grid Alert 3:
Alberta goes into Round 3, with its third electrical grid alert in three days
Grid Alert 4:
Round 4: Alberta declares fourth electrical grid alert in 4 days, second in 17 hours
So long, carbon tax on home heating in Saskatchewan!
And that’s what my dad, an 80-year-old retired farmer pensioner, paid in carbon tax last January, when it was still $50/tonne. And April 1, it will be $80 per tonne. How the hell is he supposed to make those payments on the carbon tax? Just not eat? Thankfully, we removed the shop heating, so that will make a huge difference. Now the neighbour gets to deal with that.
If you haven’t been paying attention, South Africa is falling apart. The reasons are many and various. But a principal factor is an increasingly unreliable power grid leading to up to a third of the grid being in the dark at any one time.
This is why Pipeline Online has been covering the reliability of the Canadian electrical grid with such intensity. Politicians talk about “reliability, sustainability and affordability of the electrical grid.” As these videos outline in great detail, when reliability collapses, nothing else matters. South Africa has at times one third of its grid in rolling blackout. Everything from food preservation to industrial factories to medical operations ends up in peril.
The minute any grid operator, power generator, or government starts talking about “load shedding,” things are going to hell in a handbasket in a hurry.
And as a reminder, the Alberta grid had eight “grid alerts” in the last year, each time when wind and or solar power generation failed. Alberta is a jurisdiction that has more coal, oil, and gas than God, because God gave all of his to Alberta. The only way this could happen is sheer and utter incompetence. You might consider that getting rid of reliable and cheap coal-fired power generation in favour of more and more wind and solar power might be indicative of this. And in the last few days, Alberta brought on another 297 megawatt wind farm, bringing their total wind generation to 4,150 megawatts. Two years ago, it was closer to 2700 megawatts.
Here’s a couple recent videos on YouTube discussing the ever-worsening plight of South Africa.
SaskPower president and CEO Rupen Pandya was in Estevan on Monday, and there’s a lot to unpack from that. He told city council how many reactors are being considered at Estevan and Elbow (SaskPower is currently planning for their first 2). And converting Estevan area power stations to natural gas could allow us to test carbon capture on natural gas exhaust. But that would mean the end of coal at Estevan.
Good news for Weyburn Unit, Whitecap, SaskPower, Weyburn and Estevan:
Whitecap Resources to buy CO2 from SaskPower until 2035, providing market for SaskPower’s BD3.
I did some in-depth analysis on the broader picture on all this, especially how carbon pricing in the US and Canada affect the economics.
Remember, the CO2 is used for enhanced oil recovery, dramatically extending the life of an oilfield that has now been producing over 65 years. And FYI, my kid found work with a oilfield company that’s worked in the Weyburn Unit for 62 years, give or take. I hope she can make a career there as a heavy duty mechanic.
A while ago I pointed out on Gormley that lower oil prices were definitely going to have an impact on Saskatchewan’s finances. I was right, as finances are down a half billion from budget.
Also, the feds just dished out $30 million for 1500 EV chargers in Quebec. Because of course they did.
So let’s see here, the federal government, with our tax dollars, have dished out money for EV manufacturers, battery plants, rebates on the EVs themselves, and now chargers. Is there anything they’ve missed? Maybe you get a car! And you get a car! Might have to do a column on this.
And, on the topic of the feds, after slow walking its construction for years, all of a sudden there’s a serious panic to get the Trans Mountain Pipeline complete and operating. Well, from what I understand, good luck with that.
Are the federal Clean Electricity Standards, brought in by Steven Guilbeault and Jonathan Wilkinson, impossible to meet? Pipeline Online asked SaskPower.
“The CER would require SaskPower to effectively rebuild our entire power system, through retiring the majority of our existing generating units and replacing them with new, ultra-low emitting units or non-emitting energy sources, while also growing the system to support expanding electricity needs that are expected to support growing demand for clean electricity for industrial needs, transportation, increased customer participation and other needs.”
Clean Electricity Regulations released: carbon capture needed for continued fossil fuel power generation. #Saskatchewan will not “defy the laws of thermodynamics,” says Premier Scott Moe.
I still need to dig deep into this. I’ve sent a list of questions to SaskPower and the provincial government seeking response next week, as this dropped just as we’re packing to head to the cabin. Because of course they would release it during the dog days of August.
Note: these regulations expect the electrical grid demand to grow by 2.5x in 26 years, three months and 21 days. Good luck with that. Expect a column next week.
Why? Because we are the leaders, worldwide. Every second year the IEAGHG summer school returns to Regina and Estevan, because we’ve got the most significant, commercial-scale carbon capture facility on a coal plant in the world, and we’ve learned a lot from it. That’s from the general manager of the IEAGHG.
Say what you want about carbon capture and storage, but Saskatchewan’s a big deal in this field.
I also asked him about when the glaciers covered Canada, and it wasn’t my SUV or the two coal fire power plants near my house that caused them to melt.
Not so fast, we have a say in all this “just transition” stuff, says Saskatchewan.
Also, natural resources minister has faith electric tractors are coming. The local Kipling reporter asked about this, and it’s awesome. I wonder where, and when they will charge said tractors? Maybe some booster cables at the nearest power pole in the middle of a field?
One last thing: I’m live on Gormley at 10:06 a.m. Saskatchewan time today
As promised, here is the federal Conservative response to the Natural Resources Committee just transition report. They want to expand oil and gas, not make it go away.
Entitled “Creating a Fair and Equitable Energy Transformation,” The 56 page report outlines nothing short of the utter transformation of Canada, its economy and workforce, by way of transitioning away from fossil fuels to a largely electric economy, with the possibility of hydrogen usage as well. In doing so it means to largely do away with the fossil fuel industry which is one of Canada’s largest industries and contributors to GDP, exports and wealth. The report provides recommendations as to what to do with the people involved in that industry, but not so much the companies who employ them, create those jobs or that wealth.
On Thursday, I’ll have the detailed Conservative response from MP Shannon Stubbs.
The irony is the current federal government wants to shut this all down, because coal is evil.
In the meantime, Saskatchewan – Regina, Estevan and Weyburn – showed off its decades of experience to worldwide experts on carbon capture, utilization and storage as they set international standards for the same.
Flooding shuts down major coal power station at Coronach, leaving SaskPower scrambling to backfill its nearly 600 megawatt output and shed load internally. This was the story promised yesterday.
Without it, nothing else matters.
I wrote this column nearly two weeks ago, and only shared it this morning. But it turns out this is playing out in real time, as I’m working on a big story about how SaskPower’s Poplar River Power Station is down, thus putting us out nearly 600 megawatts. This happened just as demand is spiking for air conditioning due to +30 temps this week. As a result, SaskPower is scrambling to reduce its internal demand, doing something called “load shedding.” Watch for that story once I’ve got it together.
Saskatchewan’s own Quick Dick McDick offers his take on federal Minister of Environment and Climate Change Steven Guilbeault. He talks about the implicit threat of criminal sanctions for keeping the power on, and how Guilbeault should know a thing or two about wearing handcuffs. Quick Dick picks up on a lot of the stuff I’ve been writing about recently.
The Saskatchewan Legislature ended its 2022-23 session on Thursday. The very first bill was about keeping the lights on, and the very last debate was also about keeping the lights on. This was the keeping the lights on session.
This past week the Saskatchewan government spent a lot of time on power generation and this “Net Zero by 2035” idea the federal government is trying to force upon the provinces.
This is the “energy transition” decision making in real time, folks. The impacts are enormous for this province, which is why I’ve been hammering these stories so hard.
The week summed up with Premier Scott Moe coming to Estevan to explain to local officials what the provincial government’s plans are for power production. For generations, Estevan has been home of the highest concentration of power generation in this province. However, the addition of multiple gas plants and wind facilities has largely diluted the percentage of power from Estevan. But as the province is clearly indicating a move towards nuclear, Moe all but said that Estevan will be home to some of the first small modular reactors. Pay attention to how he corrects himself from saying “nuclear” to “small modular reactors.” In this video, Moe addresses many of the concerns I’ve been raising over the last 17 months. As for adoption of nuclear – if future Saskatchewan governments follow Moe’s lead, this won’t be a small thing. Twenty years from now, as all our coal is retired and as older natural gas plants also reach retirement age, it looks like Saskatchewan will be moving to a largely nuclear grid for baseload power. And when Moe says baseload, he repeatedly refers to 80 per cent of the grid. That’s a lot more than four reactors down the road. That’s a sea change.
There’s also response from Estevan Mayor Roy Ludwig on what this all means.
Regarding this impending Clean Electricity Standard, which would force a massive energy transition in Saskatchewan in just 12 years:
Without committing to nuclear, Saskatchewan is pretty much committing to nuclear
Asking Scott Moe: What if the feds order power plants be shut down, and the Supreme Court backs them?
It turns out Steven Guilbeault has an answer for that: He said burning coal would be a violation of Canada’s Criminal Code. So will the feds be arresting the premier, SaskPower minister, SaskPower CEO, coal miners or power plant operators? All the above? And will they be arrested the same way Guilbeault was, when as a Greenpeace protestor, he scaled the CN Tower?
Saskatchewan will not meet Net Zero by 2035, but will aim for 2050. Here’s a lot more depth than you’ll find from any of the other Saskatchewan media. And there’s more to come regarding what this means for federalism. Follow up story is about how we’re going nuclear.