I’ve been following the more technical blogs on Hurricane Ike for the last few days. While Ike is only a category 2, maybe low 3, in wind strength, its huge diameter and slow progress through the gulf gives it a higher total Integrated Kinetic Energy (last reported to be over 120 terajoules) than Katrina. The storm surge in the north-east (most dangerous) quadrant is predicted, worst case, to be over 30 feet, also in part because Ike is arriving on a rising tide, and it’s a full-moon tide too.
It is my understanding, at the time I write this, that Galveston island is under water. Worst case, it may be stripped bare. Unfortunately, it appears that tens of thousands of people did not evacuate. There may be thousands dead. Houston is starting to be inundated, parts of the Louisiana coastal areas are already inundated, and it will get worse over the next few hours.
The maximum storm surge is plowing smack into the highest density petrochemical refinery area in North America, from the central Texas coast to the central Louisiana coast. Texas City and Port Arthur will likely be severely inundated. The refineries are all shut down, at best they will take a week to restart. Prices will rise across North America.
Needless to say, the idiots in the main-stream media were standing out in the approaching storm, in Houston, late Friday, pontificating on the low winds, completely oblivious to proper reporting on the scientifically incontrovertible evidence about the storm surge. They should be charged with criminal negligence, possibly fraud.
Anyway, as much as I eschew predictions, that’s how I see at this point, roughly 02:30 Central Time. The worst will be happening over the next six hours. I sincerely hope I’m wrong about this, yet I suspect you will find this thread to be a useful place for discussion of this probably major natural disaster later today.
To my many colleagues and customers in Ike’s path: my sincere best wishes to you for your safety. For SDA’s further reading, my best recommendation for a starting point for status reports, logical (not main-stream media) information, and numerous important links to other sites on this matter is Brendan Loy.