Reader Tips

Reader Tips 55 Comments

Good evening ladies and gentlemen, welcome to SDA Late Nite Radio. Tonight, for your delectation and pursuant to our Saturday night contemporary music show, here are The Goodmen performing their house classic Give It Up (1993, 3:30, video may not be suitable for some types of epileptics or puritans, and if you don’t like house music then just skip it, please, after all, we only do house work around here every fifty shows or so, and it’s all in the name of eclecticism, the foundation of SDA Late Nite Radio).

Today’s ΣVe/n: 5.14 » 4.98 (135 Seats)
Angus:
4.96 » 6.6 		Decima:
4.8 » 6 		EKOS:
7.2 » 4.8 		Ipsos:
3.15 		Nanos:
3.6 » 2.4 		Segma:
6.96
All polls current as of 2008-10-10

I’m not sure whether or not those are the last polls this time ’round or not ~ is there still a three-day moratorium on polls before the the election? So I’m going to hold off on the final graph until tomorrow, to see if there is more data. But I can say this: what a mess! The polls have been bouncing around like bingo balls in the blower. Further, the current set is bimodal: Angus, Decima, and Segma say ΣVe/n = 6.52 or 154 seats, EKOS, Ipsos, and Nanos say ΣVe/n = 3.45 or about 122 seats. Segma alone says 160 seats, Nanos alone says 120. Whew. Still, I’m confidently predicting that each party will get from zero to 308 seats 😉

Your Reader Tips are, as always, welcome in the comments.

55 Replies to “Reader Tips”

  1. List of countries by external debt.
    The telling figure; “total external debt as a percent of GDP”.
    Countries such as Poland, Mexico are in good shape. As is China.
    USA 95 %
    Canada 60 %
    UK 490 % !!
    Germany 160 %
    France 212 %
    Japan 35 %
    Mexico 13 %
    Saudi Arabia 11 %
    China 5 %
    Monaco 1849 % (ouch)
    Liechtenstein 0 % (yeah)
    Wickedpedia
    October 2008
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

  2. List of countries by external debt.
    The telling figure; “total external debt as a percent of GDP”.
    Countries such as Poland, Mexico are in good shape. As is China.
    USA 95 %
    Canada 60 %
    UK 490 % !!
    Germany 160 %
    France 212 %
    Japan 35 %
    Mexico 13 %
    Saudi Arabia 11 %
    China 5 %
    Monaco 1849 % (ouch)
    Liechtenstein 0 % (yeah)
    Wickedpedia
    October 2008

  4. What do you suppose this is?
    ===
    Vandalism in Toronto Injects Eerie Chill Into Campaign
    Last weekend, more than 30 Toronto residents who had put signs in their lawns supporting a Liberal candidate awoke to find their cars and homes vandalized.
    TORONTO — The seemingly benign decision to stick a Liberal Party lawn sign in her front yard has brought a new ritual to Marla Waltman Daschko’s morning routine. Ms. Waltman Daschko walks around her Volkswagen Passat station wagon and peers underneath the chassis, searching for potentially deadly sabotage.
    She is not alone, at least in parts of Toronto, when it comes to kneeling and peering at underbellies of cars usually seen only by mechanics. Last weekend, more than 30 Toronto residents awoke to find the brake lines on their cars severed, their telephone and cable television lines cut and political graffiti gouged into automobile paint and scrawled on their homes. The sole link among victims: a lawn sign promoting a Liberal candidate in the current federal election campaign.

  5. Looking more closely at the polling methodology today in the NP, EKOS has the largest sample, with the smallest margin of error (less than 2%). As well, the latest EKOS poll sampled voters from Tuesday to Thursday, which includes the period in which Dion made his gaffe.
    The Nanos poll, by contrast, went from Monday to Wednesday, so it would not be affected by Dion’s gaffe. It also has a vastly smaller sample size, and a margin of error of over 3 percent.
    Having said that, if you put all the polling firms in one room and asked them how and why they come up with the methodologies they do, you’d probably just get one huge argument. Maybe a fistfight or two.
    The only thing these polls agree on is that Harper clearly has momentum. Just how much we will only know for sure on Tuesday.

  8. Harper gets a larger minority or small majority government based on a surge in Ontario. Liberals will be the big losers as they are wiped out as the opposition to the Tories west of Ontario. Quebec and Atlantic Canada will be weakened in government since they will send a lower proportion of Tory MPs when compared to the increased numbers from BC and Ontario.
    Depending on the Liberal losses, Dion might stay as leader for now. Potential knives in the back from Trudeau, Iggy, and Rae. If Dion falls, Harper will have another Liberal coalition effort for a few years.

  9. I’m not bright enough to fully grasp your election predictor. But a couple of comments on the Wiki raw data page, which I like because it is an average of polls and presented in graphical form:
    1. Trendline shows CPC has pulled out of it’s funk and is diverging upward from the Lib downtrend. If you do a gradeschool extrapolation to Tuesday Harper could be in majorityland.
    2. Dippers, Greenies, and Separtists are steady. Likely explanation is the migration of blue Liberals to the CPC.
    I wish Dion no personal ill will. But perhaps people are realizing it is better, during an global economic typhoon, to have an intelligent and decisive economist in the wheelhouse rather than an incoherent sociology professor.
    Fingers, toes, arms and legs crossed. And cautiously optimistic.

  11. Thanks, RCGZ, I appreciate that, in two
    out of three senses of the word funny.
    What do you suppose it is, Sheldon?
    Clearly has momentum, Dennis?
    Arguably, sure, but surely not clearly.
    Roger that, Ural.
    Trudeau, Ryan? I think not.
    Agreed, Bart, and also notice the standard
    deviations (gray areas) in the Wikipedia chart.

  12. Has anyone else noticed that Nanos consistently ranks the Tories lower than other polls? Is there a Liberal insider there?

  15. I noticed most progressives are defaulting to the NANOS #’s as the poll of authority due to it being the closest last election and being the one which shows the LPC within the margin of error.
    How the markets respond on Monday/Tuesday will be the biggest decider for those 18% undecideds.
    I wonder how much replay the Cadman tapes will get over the weekend? Probably not much.

  16. There really is only one public opinion poll that matters … The things that will determine what the government looks like after this election are:
    -“Undecided” voters
    -Vote splitting
    -Voter turnout

  17. Agreed, NoOne. Yet if the polls were all closely clustered, and heading in the same direction (which is what Ve is good at measuring), then one might have some confidence in the potential outcome of the election. However, as Ve currently suggests, your note on how important the details will be in this case, pace the general trends, is, I think, correct. That’s what the recent historic Ve dynamics tells us. Unless, of course, they all go off in the same direction for the next two days (assuming Ural is correct).

  18. Glenn,
    I think the U.S. as well as Canadians stock markets are closed Monday (which could be a blessing the way things are going). It will give the tall foreheads in the world an extra day to come up with a bandaid that could result in a rally Tuesday.
    You are right about the Cadman thing. The recent story only concerns Harper’s defamation lawsuit against the Libs. The Liberal’s dream of a Harper scandal on this sailed away many months ago and won’t be returning. Although it didn’t stop one or two ill-informed Libsters on Kinsella’s blog from having a hope bubble moment.

  19. G&M Gloria Galloway (Spouse of Communicatons Director for Dion Campaign Mark Dunn) All the chickens come home to the roost.
    http://tinyurl.com/4uurll
    On the other hand, if Ms. May’s support remains across the country, it could be bad for the Liberals, he said. “Any increase in the Green Party vote can throw the election to the Conservatives.”
    Still, there are two rays of hope for Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, said Mr. Donolo.
    Meanwhile, there appears to be a last minute bump in Ontario, said Mr. Donolo. That is something that will become more or less apparent after surveys conducted Saturday and Sunday. (I guess the polls are still ongoing Vit.)
    It just doesn’t seem right for some reason. How is she able to be objective and impartial? Probably why I am so untrusting of the MSM. Why not just excuse yourself or write about interior decorating or movies or moose hunting, anything but politics?

  21. Someone should tell Mr. Donolo to check out the Ipsos Reid summary released on Oct 4, 2008 :
    “Only 54% of those supporting the Green Party indicate that they are ‘absolutely certain’ to go out and vote on Election Day.”
    I’d be surprised if they break 5% of the popular vote.

  22. I’ve noticed the Globe has pulled Galloway off of any CPC/Harper bashing stories. Too many people know about the Dunn-Galloways and were thrashing the Globe on their comment boards.
    Glenn,
    Nanos, revered by Liberal supporters, shows the CPC getting a pop in Ontario in his Oct. 11 numbers. All at the expense of the Libs. Most of the Dipper and Lizzie numbers are flat or heading up also. Nanos also uses a larger N than Donolo.
    http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-October-11-2008E.pdf

  23. Bart F,
    I think the US is open but TSX is closed. At least we’ll know by Monday night if the bleeding has begun to clot. If things rebound Monday and into Tuesday, I believe that will bode well for Prime Minister Harper. If things go south in a hurry look for a PMSH minority of about 128 seats and a coalition of the willing idiots on the left. He’s sitting @ 142 today.

  25. Monday is Columbus Day in the U.S.A., so the stock market is probably shut down there as well as here.

  26. Gotta be suspicious of any pollster loved by Liberals.
    ‘Still say pollsters of all stripes are meddlers of the highest order and should be banned from polling at least a week before elections.

  27. Nanos is producing his last poll on Monday, so I imagine everyone else will also, but what happened to Ekos last night ? Did they just take a night off, or are they REALLY trying to cook the numbers.
    Stock markets will be closed in US and Canada on Monday, but will unfortunately be open on polling day.

  30. (Via SWJ) Christina Lamb, Taliban leader killed by SAS was Pakistan officer
    British officials covered up evidence that a Taliban commander killed by special forces in Helmand last year was in fact a Pakistani military officer, according to highly placed Afghan officials.
    The commander, targeted in a compound in the Sangin valley, was one of six killed in the past year by SAS and SBS forces. When the British soldiers entered the compound they discovered a Pakistani military ID on the body.
    It was the first physical evidence of covert Pakistani military operations against British forces in Afghanistan even though Islamabad insists it is a close ally in the war against terror…

  32. (Via SWJ) Sara A. Carter, Big fish among the Afghan warlords
    Seven years after the overthrow of the Taliban, the Bush administration is struggling to come up with a new strategy to salvage Afghanistan. In that effort, Gen. Dostum and the nation’s 14 other warlords are a mixed blessing. Often corrupt and clinging to 14th-century notions of justice, they are an integral part of Afghanistan’s past and present and are likely to remain so in the future…

  33. The WSJ Weekend Interview — Claudia Rosett, Maurice Strong: The U.N.’s Man of Mystery
    Beijing
    “I don’t trust you, and I also question your integrity.” Thus did Maurice Strong offer me a seat on his living room sofa.
    Often described as an “international man of mystery,” Mr. Strong during his long, globe-trotting career has been one of the most influential architects of the opaque cross-border bureaucracy that is today’s United Nations. He is probably best known as godfather of the U.N.’s 1997 Kyoto treaty…

  35. Your weekly Michael Coren Show heads-up:
    Monday- 8pm Eastern on CTS-TV shown again at noon next day, repeat of, due to Thanksgiving Holiday, the one-on-one David Frum interview.
    Thursday- Human Rights Commissions- with Kathy Shaidle and Catholic author Peter Vere.

  36. “Harper to resign if he doesn’t win Tuesday.”
    Posted by: maple stump at October 12, 2008 10:35 AM
    Well, I wouldn’t blame him. Why bother with a nation of thick-headed entitlement idiots?

  37. Ralph Peters, Fighting Words
    Let’s begin with the most-abused word in Washington, “ideology.” Flocks of Potomac parrots in Brooks Brothers suits tell us, again and again, that we’re in a “war of ideologies,” or a “contest of ideologies” with the terrorists we face…
    Religion is a deeper, far more enduring factor than ideology. Ideologies come and go, often making quite a mess along the way, but the remarkable thing about successful religions – those that survive over millennia – is their galvanizing resilience. They may evolve or devolve, adapt or mutate grotesquely, but they last and continue to inspire. In historical terms, ideologies are closer to fads, to deadly hula hoops. Religion, on its mundane side, may develop subordinate ideologies – such as liberation theology or other passing militancies – but no ideology has ever produced a religion.
    Religion and ideology are essentially antithetical. Religion is not “a system of ideas,” but a matter of faith subduing and transcending reason. Religion may give birth to ideas, but ideas never give birth to a religion. So our devout enemies – and they are, indeed, devout – are not engaged in a battle of ideas or ideologies with us. They are driven by unreasoning faith, by passion, by furies, by a perverted vision of eternity…

  39. I think that Harper’s ‘step-down’ words were to Dion and the Liberals. He’s suggesting that Dion should step down if the Liberals lose.
    Dion won’t want to do that; not only because he’s extremely stubborn and refuses to acknowledge any problems. BUT, the cost of a new Liberal leadership race would further deplete the Liberal coffers. And that’s the basic reason for Dion to stay on; the Liberals can’t afford another leadership contest. They won’t admit that of course.

  40. ET:
    I thought the Liberal party constitution requires a leadership review after an election loss. But maybe I’m confused.

  41. When they organize the leader’s debate during the next election campaign (whenever that is) and Liz wants to be included, lets remember how she is now stabbing her own party in the back by asking Greens to support Borat Dion for Prime Minister. Those who poo-pooed having Liz in the first debate because she and Dion were in the political sac together have every right today to say “We told you so”. Never again should a party, any party, with such a small following and NO elected members in Parliament be allowed to highjack a debate like she did. As for Duceppe, there are some compelling reasons why he and the Crock, I mean Bloc, should not be allowed to participate either but that discussion is for another day.

  42. Caroline B. Glick, Israel and the Palestinians: Ending the Stalemate
    Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s July 30, 2008, announcement of his intention to resign from office and the recent upsurge in internecine violence between Hamas and Fatah operatives in Gaza has thrown a monkey wrench in the Bush administration’s goal of seeing Israel and the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority sign a peace treaty laying out the borders and powers of a Palestinian state by the end of 2008. But even in the unlikely event that such an agreement is reached, far from stabilizing Israel’s relationship with the Palestinians, it will likely have either no impact on the Palestinian conflict with Israel, or a profoundly negative one…

  43. Lt. Gen. (ret.) William Boykin, Al-Qaeda: Enduring Appeal
    Whether the West accepts it or not, the reality is that al-Qaeda has declared war on Western civilization, and fully intends to win. Some have argued that Bin Laden only desires to drive the infidels from Muslim territory. The actions of al-Qaeda prove otherwise. Why attack targets in Morocco or Tunisia, or even in Kenya, where there are no U.S. military troop concentrations? In fact, al-Qaeda has been clear in articulating its objectives. It is determined to destroy Israel, rid the world of Western democracy (because of its incompatibility with shari’a law) and unite Muslims around the world and establish an Islamic Caliphate.
    Achieving these objectives means oceans of blood must flow. The blood is that of infidels, but also of suicide bombers, martyrs and innocent Muslims…

  44. “Developing: Dion’s secret deal with May…
    Deliver Green votes to Libs, get Senate seat,
    & Cabinet appointment as Environment Minister”
    (Bourque)

  45. KevinB- I’m not sure about the leadership review. But, Dion’s own act of stepping down would preclude a leadership review but not a leadership contest. The leadership review, I suspect, would be unwelcome because it might reveal that the Liberals have no money for a leadership contest; they’d have to keep Dion! Heh. If he stepped down, they’d be hard-pressed to find the money for a new leader.
    a different bob – I fully agree about Liz May’s role in the debates. She ought not to have been there without an elected MP. After all, what’s the difference between her and the various other parties that also have candidates in quite a few ridings: Communist, Marxist-Leninist, Libertarian and so on. Why her and not them?
    As for the Bloc, I’ve said many times that it should not be allowed to sit in the federal parliament. No party that confines its electors to only one province has any right to sit in judgment on national interests – because it is not accountable to the nation.
    Imagine – Quebec has its very own default party, with at least 30-40 plus seats, at least 20% of the House. Do any of the other provinces have such local power? No. Nor should they.

  46. Charles, I think Peters is full of crap. To me, “religion” and “ideology” are synonymous. If you believed Peter’s logic, you would have no explanation for Islam. Religion and ideology are opposite swings of the same pendulum.

  47. charles macdonald – the agenda of Al-Qaeda to take over the world is hardly unique; there are lots of other fundamentalist sects with such plans.
    The difference with Al-Qaeda is that they have aligned themselves with tribalist groups that are both fighting with each other for political and economic power – and – are also rejecting the emergence of democracy.
    So, it’s a deeper struggle than that of those other fundamentalist sects. BUT – the agenda of total control is similar. And equally, will come to no successful end.
    The world is too large, is too ecologically diverse, has too large a population, and requires industrialism. All of these factors rule out any monolithic idealogy and control. And especially, rule out an ideology that rejects reason, individualism and innovation – which are required to sustain industrialism…which is required to sustain the global population.

  48. “Developing: Dion’s secret deal with May…
    Deliver Green votes to Libs, get Senate seat,
    & Cabinet appointment as Environment Minister”
    (Bourque)”
    Posted by: maz2 at October 12, 2008 12:20 PM
    Saw this one coming a long time ago. She will need that Senate appt. because she has no hope in hell of winning Central Nova as an MP. Her plan all along was to be enviro minister in a Lib gov’t. To hell with her candidates.

  49. The borque article says that she met with top liberal insiders last night.There is something very wrong with that.Perhaps,Mr. Honesty (steffi) will explain.

  50. Wallyj, I am sure the Sierra club, WWF, Danny Williams, Pembina institute and a few other socialists and malcontents were also there, this is a big tent of seething lefties we are up against. And outside Garthie we letting the air out of tires no doubt, then phoning the Toronto Star to get a 1500 dollar a month reporter down there PDQ!

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