Reader Tips

Reader Tips 66 Comments

Good evening ladies and gentlemen, welcome to SDA Late Nite Radio. Tonight, for your delectation and pursuant to our Tuesday night vintage music show, here are Adrian Rollini and His Orchestra performing A Hundred Years From Today (1934, 3:08).

Today’s ΣVe/n: 6.74 » 5.42 (-13.6 seat Minority)
Angus:
9.75 		Decima:
3.99 » 2.85 		EKOS:
6.00 » 4.13 		Ipsos:
8.40 		Nanos:
3.15 » 1.95

Update: I’ve been thinking about the above table, and I can’t legitimately say that I don’t think that last Saturday’s Angus and Ipsos polls now look like outliers. If we only count the three dailies, ΣVe/n=2.98, giving a minority of about 120 seats, four less than last time.

Your Reader Tips are, as always, welcome in the comments.

66 Replies to “Reader Tips”

  2. Three factors seem to be driving the CPC down into minority twilight (at this rate, it will become the most expensive byelection in history).
    (a) Harper has failed to excite the conservative base (big-time). The party has obviously taken everyone to their right for granted. It remains to be seen if that is wise, or misguided.
    (b) The Obama factor cannot be discounted. The voters must be thinking, “geez, if they elect Obama, we had better have our commie ready up here.” Good thinking, eh?
    (c) Media spin. For the 10-20 per cent of voters who react to instead of despite media spin, the usual pro-Liberal bias is having its usual last-minute bounce effect. It was thought that nothing could save Dion, but apparently the age of miracles is not ended after all.

  3. What a mess. Guess that what happens if you’re the last one without a seat when the music stops.

  4. Hey Vit – nice mention by Coyne. I think your ‘machine’ will serve humanity well…

  5. Well, Vitruvius, thanks once again for your efforts in compiling the Ve table and graph. Sometimes there are benefits for the somewhat cautious. I know you have always prefaced your comments with the caveat “if the trend holds and is representative” but it was that trend holding part that I was not so sure of. It’s not that I knew what it would be this time; it’s just we have seen this in election after election since at least 2000. The good guys have a trend going and then the MSM says “Don’t vote for the good guys” in the form of “hidden agenda”, “racist”(in the past), or something else. The words change but the message is the same and Canadians buy it.
    I know there is some real money news stateside but somehow I think the drop was going to happen anyways. The other thread is about the war room; sure, some mistakes have been made, but the real issue is that Canadians can be taken in by the MSM so easily. Mistakes by a campaign only hurt you if the other guy is running a good campaign and can take advantage of your mistakes. Liberals are running a good campaign??
    It has often seemed to me that the real problem in Canada is not the MSM or the war room or Harper, but with Canadians themselves. The default position is Liberal.

  6. In consideration of the fact that Nanos numbers are approaching Liberal minority range, what is the historical relationship between Nanos and Election Day results? It’s obvious that they are not in the range of the pack; is this because they know something no one else does, or is it just because they are not aware they are introducing a pro-Liberal bias into their polls?

  8. 10/07/08
    A truly unique and fascinating take on the subprime financial meltdown.
    “Panics are, after all, far too common. Perhaps the most recent was the 2003 SARS epidemic in Asia. Back then, a relatively small number of cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (fewer than 26 per 100,000 in Hong Kong, for example) led to a massive panic. Beijing tourist attractions reported revenue losses of 80 percent. Absenteeism skyrocketed, and China’s gross domestic product dropped 5 percentage points in one quarter. Similar losses spread to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore.”
    “Herd Behavior”
    “SARS caused a panic because people didn’t know much about the disease and couldn’t tell if the person next to them with the sniffles was a disease-bomb set to kill.”
    For the full article, go here http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aO8VJ9Y7qjrQ&refer=home

  10. A truly unique and fascinating take on the subprime financial meltdown.
    “Panics are, after all, far too common. Perhaps the most recent was the 2003 SARS epidemic in Asia. Back then, a relatively small number of cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (fewer than 26 per 100,000 in Hong Kong, for example) led to a massive panic. Beijing tourist attractions reported revenue losses of 80 percent. Absenteeism skyrocketed, and China’s gross domestic product dropped 5 percentage points in one quarter. Similar losses spread to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore.”
    “Herd Behavior”
    “SARS caused a panic because people didn’t know much about the disease and couldn’t tell if the person next to them with the sniffles was a disease-bomb set to kill.”
    For the full article, go here http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aO8VJ9Y7qjrQ&refer=home

  11. Yes, Vitruvius, I think you have been consistent in that. Additionally, my caution extends in the other direction. The base CPC support is strong despite the disappointments and the dropping trend will probably level off soon – unless the big negative news continues stateside. Somehow, I suspect you share this caution in the other direction as well.

  12. Looks like the Conservatives forgot to adopt free-market policies and explain to the country why they are the only thing that can raise people’s standard of living.

  14. Brent we are up against the biggest beaten wife syndrome in the world, the canadian voter. If anyone is stupid enough to put pencil to ballot and vote liberal, you are endorsing failure and theft. Never bitch about taxes if you are this dull. This coagulation of misfits and miscreants called the liberals have created no policy ever that did not facilitate huge amounts of taxpayers money sloshing through programs like gun registry, sponsership, indian affairs, hrdc, on and on, all the while taking the skim, be it in brown envelops or by simple announcements like Cretins “well maybe a few million were stolen, but big deal”. Thank you liberals you have mortgaged ours and our grandchildrens future and you want to impose a carbon tax for a ficticious scam called global warming, great. Thanks MSM your doing the same.

  15. Just watched the Mansbridge/PMSH interview. Thought that PMSH was the voice of reason. Was and still am amazed that him saying that there were buying opportunities during this down turn was a bad thing. It’s the market!!! Good buys, bad buys! It fluctuates.
    Watched Mini-Marx and Dion doing their emotional best with “He actually said that” There are buying opportunities” How insensitive” Almost had me gagging.

  16. I don’t believe in any of it. Liberals will stay at home, rather than vote for the inept Dion, despite the brand partisan and dubious polls.
    Joe Clark?

  17. With the current financial crises, the dismal debate south of the border and the recent turn of events up here, I feel that I must prepare for the worst. Folks its time to start preparing to look after yourselves and your family first and forget about the “big picture” until this continent comes to its collective senses. I fear that we are about to experience a period of unrest and economic turmoil unprecedented in our lifetimes.

  18. You asked above, Brent, “what is the historical relationship between Nanos and Election Day results?” According to the data I have, not that it is conclusive, Nanos has no relationship with previous results: their first published poll on this matter was on February 4, 2008.

  21. >>>>> $$$$$$ *”It isn’t very difficult to discern what lies behind it: money, and lots of it. Nor does it require extraordinary powers of prediction or foresight to know who would get the lion’s share of any such money that was forthcoming.”
    $$$$$$$$
    “Apology Act introduced by Ontario Liberals
    Ottawa Citizen, Canada – 3 hours ago
    The “Apology Act” has been endorsed by a range of medical and legal groups, including the Ontario Medical Association and the Ontario Bar Association.”
    $$$$$$$$$$$
    “*False Apology Syndrome – I’m sorry for your sins.
    By Theodore Dalrymple”
    http://www.incharacter.org/article.php?article=119

  23. Mao Stlong, Boob Lae’s Uncle, say, fakely, lidicure, mockely onry fol dopes.
    …-
    “IOC to retest all doping samples from Beijing
    LAUSANNE, Switzerland — The International Olympic Committee will retest all doping samples from the Beijing Games to check for traces of a new blood-boosting drug.
    The unprecedented move, announced Wednesday, is designed to search for a banned substance that was only recently detected during retesting of samples from the Tour de France.
    The Beijing samples — across all sports — are being sent to the World Anti-Doping Agency accredited laboratory in Lausanne, IOC spokeswoman Emmanuelle Moreau said.”
    http://tinyurl.com/44ppwb

  25. Political Correctness is a Mserable POS.
    …-
    “Ms. Palin finally made her public comment about Ms. Fey’s parody, saying: “I was just trying to keep Tina Fey in business,” adding that she is providing “job security for ‘SNL’ characters.”
    Now we wouldn’t go that far.”
    “The Sarah Palin Micro Economy
    ‘SNL’ and Others Boosted by VP Candidate”
    http://adage.com/campaigntrail/post?article_id=131543

  26. Ms May tells Ricky to …. offfff.
    Mr. Adolf, Mr. Uncle Joe Stalin, and Mr. Uncle Mao Stlong were known for their humour, aka …. offff.
    OTOH, Uncle Taliban Jack and Oncle Citoyen Stephane are verrry funny Mr’s.
    …-
    “Green leader resists urge to try comedy
    NEW GLASGOW (CP) — Green Leader Elizabeth May decided to stick to politics when comedian Rick Mercer showed up at her election campaign.”
    http://thechronicleherald.ca/News/1083424.html

  27. The National Post endorses Harper and calls on Canadians to give him a majority mandate.
    There’s an excellent line in the editorial about how the Tories need to do more about section 13 of the Human Rights Act. Bravo Post.

  28. Leasa said:
    “Morning Steve! I went to see Mr. Harper last evening in Hamilton! Wow! There must have been near 2000 people packed in there. The cheering was deafening! He completely knocked Dion out of the water and even had the crowd laughing at him. I wish the media would report things like that. The people there absolutely loved this man (including me). BTW…his wife is beautiful.”
    …-
    “Delaying the Green Shift: Stephane Dion versus Bob Rae”
    http://stevejanke.com/archives/275094.php

  29. A superb summary of the Communists, black nationalist hatemongers and Islamists with whom Obama associates:
    Frank J. Gaffney, Jr., Characters count
    Suddenly, the presidential campaigns are addressing an issue that should have been at the forefront of this year’s election long ago. Call it “characters count.” We know people – especially public figures – by the company they keep. And we need to know much more about, to put it charitably, the characters that have figured prominently for years in Barack Obama’s life…

  30. Liz: Thank you for that.
    The editorial is fair (in that it points to CPC failings) but is a succinct indictment of the vacuous policy silliness and hysteria on the economy by the left.
    If I were a leftist and read that editorial, I would only have one word: OUCH.

  33. RAND Corporation, Technical Report 580, Unconventional Fossil-Based Fuels: Economic and Environmental Trade-Offs
    In this report, RAND researchers assess the potential future production levels, production costs, greenhouse gases, and other environmental implications of synthetic crude oil extracted from oil sands and fuels produced via coal liquefaction relative to conventional petroleum-based transportation fuels. The findings indicate the potential cost-competitiveness of these alternative fuels and the potential trade-offs that their deployment requires between economic and environmental considerations.
    [Summary and full report in PDF].

  34. “I don’t believe in any of it. Liberals will stay at home, rather than vote for the inept Dion” — My feeling about some of the recent polling is that it is a “brave” show by Liberals, many of whom will stay home. I think it is an emotional response. Many people (who don’t like the Harper gov.) will express negativity as a way to scare/punish Conservatives, however I think (hope) that when it actually comes to voting, cooler heads will prevail. A vote for Harper is a vote from the head. A vote for any of the other parties is pure emotion. It is tempting (for some) to go with the heart, but in this case there is a huge disconnect between what they might be feeling and what actually makes sense in these dire economic circumstances. I think that a majority for Harper would be the safest outcome for Canada at this time. Unfortunately, that may not happen, but surely many Canadians will see the importance of steering a cautious (and Conservative)path over the next several years — enough to give him a strong minority.

  35. NOT SAFE FOR WORK — contains vile, objectionable language.
    (Via Melanie Phillips) A new low in Palin Derangement Syndrome:
    Matt Taibbi, Mad Dog Palin
    Sarah Palin is a symbol of everything that is wrong with the modern United States. As a representative of our political system, she’s a new low in reptilian villainy, the ultimate cynical masterwork of puppeteers like Karl Rove. But more than that, she is a horrifying symbol of how little we ask for in return for the total surrender of our political power. Not only is Sarah Palin a fraud, she’s the tawdriest, most half-assed fraud imaginable, 20 floors below the lowest common denominator, a character too dumb even for daytime TV — and this country is going to eat her up, cheering her every step of the way…

  37. Matt Taibbi is NOT a journalist, but an opinion writer who diverts to using obscenities when describing political candidates who are on the “other side of the divide”.
    His stuff in “The Rolling Stone” is pretty bad, which I caution my kids to read with a skptical and critical mind.

  38. Richard Barrett, Al-Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Threatened
    A recent European Court of Justice ruling that targeted sanctions infringed on the rights of a Saudi businessman and a Swiss remittance firm jeopardizes not only EU sanctions policy but also the entire UN system of measures against terrorist supporters and proliferators.

  40. Valerie Elliott, Kennel Club changes breeding rules to end cruelty
    A review of breeding standards for every pedigree dog species in Britain is under way by the Kennel Club in an attempt to introduce kinder rearing for pets and showdogs…
    The governing body has been stung into action after controversy that breeding rules to qualify for Crufts encouraged deformities and disease in the animals. New rules, covering 209 breeds, are to be in place by the end of the year and will be used to judge dogs competing in next year’s Crufts, the biggest dog show in the world, which is organised by the Kennel Club…

  41. “he delivered a Killer of a Line for the Ontario Audience”
    L.Ian Macdonald oct08/08 Montreal Gazette
    “If we aren’t re-elected, It will make Bob Rae’s Ontario look like a Boom Town”
    Stephen Harper at the Canadian Club of Toronto
    oct07/08
    That’s the Line that has to get out, Bloggers It’s up to You because you know the MSM will Not report on it.
    War Room did you read that from MacDonald

  42. “Less than a week after the federal government offered an $85 billion bailout to insurance giant AIG, the company held a week-long retreat for its executives at the luxury St. Regis Resort in Monarch Beach, Calif., running up a tab of $440,000, Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) said today at the the opening of a House committee hearing about the near-failure of the insurance giant.
    Showing a photograph of the resort, Waxman said the executives spent $200,000 for rooms, $150,000 for meals and $23,000 for the spa.
    “Less than a week after the taxpayers rescued AIG, company executives could be found wining and dining at one of the most exclusive resorts in the nation,” Waxman said. “We will ask whether any of this makes sense. ”
    The committee will ask the company’s executives about their multimillion-dollar pay packages — some of which they continue to receive — as well as who bears responsibility for the company’s high-risk investment portfolio, which led to its near collapse just weeks ago.”
    “They were getting their manicures, their pedicures, massages, their facials while the American people were paying their bills,” thundered Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D-Md.), of the executive retreat at the Monarch Resort.”
    This will only give the libranos and there corporate friends ideas.
    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/livecoverage/2008/10/after_bailout_aig_executives_h.html?hpid=topnews

  44. Herein is shown the MSM as the debaucher* of Canadians.
    …-
    >>>>> “Harper is creating a crime
    problem to deflect attention
    St. Catharines Standard”
    “Street kid murder trial begins
    On a warm summer night two years ago,”
    http://tinyurl.com/4tn85x (sun)
    …-
    *debauch:
    1. To corrupt morally.
    2. To lead away from excellence or virtue.
    (dictcom)

  45. Anyone notcie a $75-million government-run ‘venture capital’ fund in the Cons election platform?
    I think ‘oxymoronic’ is a word for it.
    And a bitter laugh at the taxpayer. Just the $75 million per year scheme to transfer cash to connected politicos and welfare cases in suits. On top of the $25 billion per year in direct and indirect spending of taxpayer money to for profit, privately held business in this country.
    Think Boob Rae’s socialism’s bad? This is different how? Ooooo – let me guess: it’s less!

  46. A statement from a bitter Garfffff: It’s not fair.
    …-
    “Local Halton papers endorse Lisa Raitt over Garth Turner
    Garth Turner, running for re-election in Halton, has failed to secure the endorsement from the three local Halton papers. Indeed, the editorial boards thinks re-electing Garth Turner would be a mistake, as he is seen to be a trouble-maker with only his own interests at heart.
    The right candidate for Halton, the papers agree, is Lisa Raitt of the Conservative Party.
    From the Oakville Beaver, the Milton Canadian Champion and the Burlington Post, have united to make a common endorsement.
    All three papers agreed to endorse Lisa Raitt of the Conservative Party.
    But going beyond a mere endorsement, the newspapers have also provided a detailed explanation of why Liberal MP Garth Turner ought not to win re-election:”
    http://stevejanke.com/archives/275127.php

  47. The good news is that Dion’s English has improved to the point where people can now understand what he’s saying … for example, he has a Cabinet from Toronto … that should sell really well across Canada, we have all noticed what a splendid place Toronto is.

  48. Heh. Tom Flanagan points to the obvious:
    The Greens have been able to thrive because they received enough votes in 2004 and 2006 (more than 2 per cent) to qualify for an annual subsidy of about $1-million – enough to finance a professional organization and national campaign. Thus, without ever electing anyone, an advocacy group has turned itself into a viable political party, courtesy of the system of public subsidies; and even if the Greens never elect anyone, their status as a party makes their advocacy more effective…..
    But if the Liberals end up badly in this election, the subsidy system will cushion their fall. No matter how poorly their own fundraising performs, they can expect an annual subsidy of $6-million to $7-million, which will discourage them from facing the need to “unite the left” through a coalition or merger with the NDP and/or Greens. Once again, the subsidy system will promote fragmentation…..”
    Coupled with proportional representation, this could actually mean individual votes count, and that our statist gulag isn’t a choice between “those lying thieves” and “these lying thieves”.
    The irony boggles the mind.
    http://tinyurl.com/3eegyl

  49. Matt Taibbi is NOT a journalist, but an opinion writer who diverts to using obscenities when describing political candidates who are on the “other side of the divide”…
    Posted by: puddin and pie at October 8, 2008 10:45 AM
    On the bright side, puddin and pie, he appears to draw his inspiration from the usual constellation of Leftist and New Age “experts.” Is there a whiff of David Icke in the “reptilian villainy” crack?

  50. Short but pithy.
    Col. Christopher D. Kolenda, How to Win in Afghanistan
    The war in Afghanistan is no longer purely a counterterrorism effort against al Qaeda and the senior Taliban leadership. It bifurcated long ago, and its second branch is a counterinsurgency against a range of groups who are flouting both the central government and the traditional authority of village and tribal elders and moderate mullahs. Often well funded by the Taliban or other enemies of the Afghan government and the coalition, and sometimes incorporating foreign fighters, these groups use money and guns to recruit from the vast pool of illiterate young men who see only continued poverty in the village and tribal status quo. The militants find their opportunity in the unraveling of the social and economic fabric since the Soviet invasion…
    Beyond that, the changed nature of the war makes necessary four key strategic adaptations…

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