Good evening ladies and gentlemen, welcome to SDA Late Nite Radio. Tonight, for your delectation and pursuant to our Monday night jazz show, here couresy of listener Porter are Gerry Mulligan, Zoot Sims, Jon Eardley, Bob Brookmeyer, Bill Crow, and Dave Bailey performing Bernie’s Tune in Rome in 1956 (3:52).
There is no significant change in today’s ΣVe/n, it has now been
predicting 136 ±1 Conservative seats for four days running.
Your Reader Tips are, as always, welcome in the comments.
Are you taking your sorrows out for a swim tonight Lance old boy??
*cough*
Sigh. Deep Sigh.
W(h)ine is helping marc . . . somewhat that is.
Kudoes to you and your *&^%$(*&^%^%&^$%’ng Stumps.
You’re the winners this season.
So tomorrow we get to razz on you for being way out, Vitruvius.
combine the Brady effect with the usual Dems appeal to duff sitters effect and all is not lost.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/obama.bradley.effect/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
a similar effect is seen in canadian elections. the duffsitters in nfld and NS tend to get out early and vote so they can head to the bar. the guys that have jobs dont get out to vote till after dinner. meanwhile the exit pollers at CBCpravda have gone home or to the studio to file their reports oblivious to the obvious.
timing is everything, right?
market trading and picking election dates.
be careful when the dates rub shoulders; ask PMSH who sniffed a majority in the wind and got the writ.
just in time for someone to commit arson on the economy.
and dont gloat over those equally dramatic rebounds; the SAME THING happened in ’29. well, except for the last one.
the election that was NOT the result of a vote of confidence OR a carved in stone as PMSH had led us to believe he preferred for all general elections.
well, unless there is a whiff of majority in the air.
the best we can hope for is dion does a ballot box face plant.
oh I beg to differ… There’ll be one more time at ‘er this season, it’s a set up for an awesome western final, we can both agree that the west is the class of the CFL I’m sure, and apparently, the fans got on famously at McMahon parking lot / grilling facility tonight, always a good sign. Pat Fiacco was there, an awesome mayor if ever! (plug – plug, same school and all that, a way back when…)
well tomorrow’s another game!
vote early, and vote often!
here is a score similar to the riders performance
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html
Not so, Christoph. Tomorrow, actually Wednesday, we will get to see how closely ΣVe/n predicted this year’s results, we will get to see how each of the pollsters Ve‘s compare to the final as-voted Ve this time, and to compare that to the discrepancies in the previous two elections, and we will get to speculate on the causal forces involved thereto, and I will get to add another row to the tables in my Ve essay. However, I, Vitruvius, have conspicuously made only one prediction in this election: each party will win from zero to 308 seats. To be clear: Ve is not my prediction, it is a measure I am studying.
Well, Vitruvius, we get to razz on you for something or what good is an election?
Aye, point taken 😉 Salut!
Don’t know who to vote for? How about a fringe party?
The Jack of Hearts has a very intriguing blog series on Canada’s fringe parties. Each post has a bit of their history and policy.
I liked this series a lot.
Don’t know who to vote for? Why not? There is only one person running for Prime Minister of Canada who can count to ten without using his or her fingers. I know who to vote for. I support Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party of Canada. I don’t ask for much from politics, but at least Prime Minister Harper can count without using his fingers.
Stephane Dion pleading for votes, possibly employing a new Green shift, to liberal votes.
Stephane Dion’s Liberals, earning your trust, at $2.00 a vote.
I love the video above of the greenie Green, trying to get a “coalition” of local “progressive” candidates together to combine their votes. There’s just one catch though, the “winner” will have to act well, progressive enough for the others.
The best part is a non-greenie Green politely asking her what the f**k she is doing.
Stephane and Elizabeth still can’t understand how Canadians could be stupid enough not to vote for the right progressives, you know the ones with true Grit. Why go mean when they can go green? What’s up with that Jack?
Followed a link on a blog to a website called voteforenvironment.ca
Noticed this on the bottom of the page: Approved by the Financial Agent for Kevin Grandia
About VoteForEnvironment.ca
Found the following about Kevin Grandia:
From one sinking ship to another
Concerned citizens have informed us that provincial government event coordinator Kevin Grandia, a former ministerial assistant who has a reputation for being the public affairs bureau’s “event guru,” is abandoning his disciples. Mr. Grandia has been responsible for managing many of Premier Gordon Campbell’s centre-stage announcements. He also reportedly has a good working relationship with the premier’s deputy chief of staff Lara Dauphinee and was expected to play a prominent role in the upcoming election (which, by the looks of it, is already underway). But apparently that promise/threat wasn’t enough to keep Mr. Grandia, once and current Richmond MP Raymond Chan’s former constituency assistant, from breaking chief of staff Martyn Brown’s heart and going back to work for his old boss. ****According to federal Liberals, Mr. Grandia is likely gunning for a job in the ministers’ regional office in Vancouver.****
Posted by Sean Holman at 11:37 AM
Permanent link
So it would appear that this website,which has avidly been promoting strategic voting, has a connection to the LPC.
If Harper doesn’t get rid of the subsidy to political parties based on the votes they get and say that they should rely upon what they raise (with the already generous political contribution tax credit), then he doesn’t understand how politics works………the Liberals and Greens would die on the vine if they did not get their fix of government subsidies. The Conservatives and NDP would continue……which would make for a more interesting race….based more on policy differences than someone saying (as Dion is wont to say) “PM Harper lies and lies and his campaign is just one lie after another, while the Liberal campaign has been positive throughout and not uttered a single negative comment.”
Dennis Prager thinks America is divided beyond reconciliation. He’s only just stopped himself from propagating a ‘disunion’ of the united states of America. Interesting read – Jesusland v United Stats of Canada Part redux?
townhall dot com/columnists/DennisPrager/2008/10/14/there_are_two_irreconcilable_americas?page=full&comments=true
Cascadia:
It’s not that it’s a bad idea, it’s just that he’s likely to get a minority again, and that will tie his hands just as much as the election did. I mean if Harper gets another minority, and immediately tries to, say, cut funding to the CBC, the opposition will vote him down, and scream “hidden agenda” for five weeks. The Liberals will get a minority, and with the unquestioned support of the Bloc, implement all their loopy ideas.
That’s just the reality of minority government. All the people who have posted here over the last six months complaining about Harper being a “soft” or “pseudo” conservative just don’t understand that.
Out here on the east coast it is a clear and sunny autumn day. The perfect weather to cast a vote and the mrs and I just did our civic duty. I am always amazed that while some people risk being shot at while exercising their freedom, Canadians for the most part can’t be bothered. Maybe if they put the polling stations in Tim Horton’s (or Starbuck’s in the GTA) there would be better turnout.
Think of Canada as a huge corporation. Which one of these people would you like being CEO of that company you own share in. The choice is very easy.
Hmm, vitruvius, is your ‘zero to 308’ really a prediction or is it instead a statement of actual or current fact?
That is, it has nothing to do, really, with the future, but merely with the observation that X number of political parties are legally registered in this election race and therefore, X number of parties are eligible for House seats, in the range between zero and 308. Nothing to do with the future. Just the current House structure and number of political parties.
(Via SWJ) Peter Spiegel, Indirect approach is favored in the war on terror
Weeks after the Sept. 11 attacks, a small team of Green Berets was quietly sent to the Philippine island of Basilan. There, one of the world’s most virulent Islamic extremist groups, Abu Sayyaf, had established a dangerous haven and was seeking to extend its reach into the Philippine capital.
But rather than unleashing Hollywood-style raids, as might befit their reputation, the Green Berets proposed a time-consuming plan to help the Philippine military take on the extremist group itself. Seven years later, Abu Sayyaf has been pushed out of Basilan and terrorist attacks have dropped dramatically.
“It’s not flashy, it’s not glamorous, but man, this is how we’re going to win the long war,” said Lt. Gen. David P. Fridovich, the Army officer who designed the Philippine program…
Have been out of the country on vacation for alomost three weeks, so I am not yet fully up to speed on what has happened during the campiagn, particularly in Quebec.
That being said I am somewhat distressed about this strategice voting initiative and its cousin ABC(Thanks Danny). For all of youbrowsing this site who don’t like Harper and the Conservatives, that is OK that is your perogative. I will remind you of two recent examples of resulots hwereby the delegates adopted a negative vote rather than an affirmative one; Ed Stelmach and Stephane Dion, neither one of which has proven to be anything much beyond milquetoast.
As this is an election to determine who leads your country, not just your party, I would ask you show your country some respect and vote FOR a candidate rather than AGAINST one. If nothing else you could go back to the Good Old Days where you voted for the best candidate regardless of party affiliation, such an naieve and outdated concept in today politics.
Cascadia & Kevinb:
There’s an issue to frame an election around – Retract the subsidy to political parties, make it a confidence motion, and put all the leftist parties in a position where either they lose the subsidy by voting against it and having the Conservatives use it against them as another instance where their face is in the trough, or they lose it outright. Whatever would happen to our “Loyal” separatist party if it had to run an election on $50,000 per quarter?
Spengler, Gambling, economic growth and imagination
America’s homeowners feel like busted gamblers after a bender in Vegas. They wagered not only the nest egg, but the nest, with the abandon of tulip-bulb traders in 17th century Holland. Americans are hard put to explain how the American dream turned into a chip on the craps table. The focal point of speculation was the asset one usually associates with secure domesticity. What happened to the risk-averse Economic Man of textbooks?
The textbook was misleading to begin with: we are all gamblers and always have been, argues Reuven Brenner, the Repap Professor of Business at McGill University. In a series of books beginning in 1983…, Brenner yanks economics inside-out by placing risky behavior at the center of the economic model…
Bret Stephens, America Will Remain the Superpower
…But when the tide laps at Gulliver’s waistline, it usually means the Lilliputians are already 10 feet under. Before yesterday’s surge, the Dow had dropped 25% in three months. But that only means it had outperformed nearly every single major foreign stock exchange, including Germany’s XETRADAX (down 28%) China’s Shanghai exchange (down 30%), Japan’s NIKK225 (down 37%), Brazil’s BOVESPA (down 41%) and Russia RTSI (down 61%). These contrasts are a useful demonstration that America’s financial woes are nobody else’s gain…
It also helps that the U.S. continues to have the world’s largest inflows of foreign direct investment; that it ranks third in the world (after Singapore and New Zealand) for ease of doing business, according to the World Bank; and that its demographic trends aren’t headed toward a tall and steep cliff — as they are in the EU, Russia, Japan and China.
Above all, the U.S. remains biased toward financial transparency. I am agnostic as to whether mark-to-market accounting is a good idea; last month’s temporary ban on short-selling financials seemed a bad one.
But a system that demands timely and accurate financial disclosure and doesn’t interfere with price discovery will invariably prove more resilient over time than a system that does not make such demands. If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were financial time bombs of one kind, then surely China’s state-owned enterprises are time bombs of another. Can anyone determine with even approximate confidence the extent of their liabilities?
“Global warming debate heats up
>>>>> NASA scientists duel over interpretation of data
WASHINGTON – While one NASA scientist says man-made catastrophic climate change will cause an apocalypse, another says hysterical pronouncements about carbon dioxide emissions are unwarranted and overblown.”
“James Hansen, a political ally of former Vice President Al Gore,”
“But Roy Spencer, U.S. science team leader for NASA’s collection of satellite temperature data”
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=77869
Here we have the Suzuki Foundation attempting to influence the election outcome on ELECTION DAY, aided by unnamed CTV news staff, trying to drive votes away from the NDP and the Conservatives.
Who are the CTV staffers?
The Suzuki Foundation should be retroactively stripped of charitable status.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081013/election2008_carbon_footprint_081014/20081014?s_name=election2008
Nothing shows how really dysfunctional the Canadian political system is than the data showing that Quebec is going to vote against an economist as PM because he made some minor cuts to arts funding.
The world economic system teeters on the brink of an absolute disaster but apparently nobody in Quebec has noticed this yet.
Trillions and billions of dollars at stake.
And the biggy issue of the 2008 election to the Quebec deepthinkers is a $20 million cut in arts funding?
This would be funny if it wasn’t so absolutely bizarre.
So what are the chances of the Quebec working (and voting) class ignoring their crap leadership and surprising us with a vote for the CPC?
Posted by: KevinB at October 14, 2008 4:10 AM
And the Faux-Con apologists continue to bleat and bray and whine.
All the while, excuses pile up. Lies become ‘nuance’. And the status quo, with its’ inevitable return to to and fro, results in the same old same old.
The End.
Run away coward. Hide in your closet, and continue to fear the change you fight so hard against.
“Canada’s Harper sees possible stock-market bargains – Reuters”
…-
“TSX SOARS 1,600 PTS AT OPEN”
(Bourque)
…-
It’s all about the oil.
Liberal, Tory, Same Old Story.
Welcome to the future. A $300 million dollar election inconsistent with an election law that was inconsistent with Con Party timing.
Well Done!
Naturally, a majority was really, really worth it. No? C’mon people, I mean really. If only it is a majority for the Cons, they hey, breaking the spirit of a fixed date election law it really worht it. I mean the good business of Parlieament can be conducted, and those rotten other guys won’t frustrate and confound the pure and true efforts of our PARTY.
And even if it isn’t a majority, hey – I mean $300 million dollars and the 3rd election in 4 years must simply mean we live in the most democratic country on earth.
Suckers.
Hardboiled; nothing but a fart in the wind.
Say, if there ARE any ridings where the Greens, Grits and/or Dippers form a coalition, shouldn’t the “coalition” get the $1.75 per vote cast (i.e. split the $1.75 two or three ways amongst the parties to the coalition)?
That would be the “most correct way” of doing it, though I’m sure the lawyers would argue forever and a day over it.
Hey Bruce! Hey! You get your majority? Huh? How about a Con minority? Good stuff?
How’s about good governance of the country Bruce? How many bills died on the order paper dude? Another year to reintroduce and get to third reading?
Thankfully, that wet fart Prentice and his butchered C-61 was mercifully euthanized. They’ll move that gerbil on in the next cabinet shuffle.
Maybe that was worth the $300 million, hey Bruce?
Liberal Tory, same old story.
Donate often sock puppet. And go to bed tonight with your Con blue nightcap on and your blue teddy bear and keep repeating it. Dear leader always thanks the useful idiots.
How overloaded is your inbox?
Col. Peter R. Marksteiner, The threat from within
Commentators use terms such as data smog, informania, data asphyxiation, attentional overload and cyber-indigestion to describe a newly recognized phenomenon: information overload. Lax digital hygiene and the careless use of technology exacerbate the harmful effects of information overload. As a result, commanders and decision-makers at all levels are rendered less aware and less capable of resolving complex issues and maintaining decision dominance across the range of military operations…
rockyt- the thing about Quebec, and please note, this is only my opinion and experience, but, Quebecers don’t see themselves as Canadians.
We, in the ROC, view Quebec as part of Canada; we’re quite happy to travel to Montreal and Quebec; it’s all ‘part of Canada’.
But Quebecers view the ROC as a foreign country. It is anglophone and foreign. As anglophone, it is also connected to the USA, which is also a foreign country. Both the ROC and the USA are merged; they are both foreign countries.
The problem with the ROC’s existence, to the Quebecer, is that Quebec is ‘trapped’ within it. Caught – like a fish in a net. They feel NO kinship with Canada or Canadians. No sense of shared responsibilities. Nothing. Canada is a foreign country and Quebec is trapped inside it.
Their feelings of filiation are ONLY to francophone countries. As evidence, Quebec charges students from France, Belgium..any francophone country the SAME low university tuition. But, it charges students from the ROC about one third more. Because they are from a ‘foreign’ country.
Quebecers, on the whole rarely if ever visit the ROC. When they go to a foreign country, it’s to Florida – where many, many Quebecers go for the winter; they even have their own French newspaper in their Quebec enclave down in Florida.
So, Quebecers won’t vote for a federal party. Because they don’t feel Canadian. Setting up the Bloc gave them their own party. The Bloc has NOTHING to do with ‘separation’; only with identity. So, by default, Quebecers will vote for the Bloc. Because it belong to and only to ..Quebec.
The disastrous result of this policy means that a majority parliament is almost impossible to achieve; it means that a great deal of money is spent trying to woo Quebecers away from their own Natural Party.
Can you imagine a country that sets up criteria for the electorate that excludes the majority of the electorate? After all, over 80% of the Canadian electorate are excluded from voting for the Bloc. You have to fulfill explicit criteria to be eligible to vote for the Bloc. You have to be living in Quebec.
In earlier times, other excluding criteria were genderbased (only men could vote). Or land based (only landowners could vote). Or financial (only those in upper level incomes). Here, in Canada, we’ve set up a criterion that excludes over 80% of the population by inserting a geographic criterion. How’s that for democracy?
Ilan Berman, How to Think About the Iranian Bomb
When he takes office on January 20th, 2009, the next President of the United States will have to contend with a range of pressing issues, from a global economic slowdown to soaring energy prices and a domestic housing market in crisis. On the foreign policy front, however, none will be as urgent as dealing with the persistent nuclear ambitions of the Islamic Republic of Iran. How the United States responds to Iran’s atomic drive will, to a large extent, dictate the shape of American strategy toward the greater Middle East for the foreseeable future…
Reform spirit recalled as retiring MPs clear out their offices
One of the last debates longtime Calgary MP Art Hanger ever had in Ottawa came last week, with a Parliament archivist who told him all those petitions Hanger collected have long ago been mulched.
Not even kept, let alone acted upon.
“It just shows me how unresponsive politicians are to the concerns of those ordinary people,” he said. “It’s almost useless.”
We filled a vacuum there, and then we morphed into a political party and, finally, a Conservative party which now has allowed another vacuum to appear because nobody’s filling it.”….The Conservatives are now Canada’s best-funded party and Mills is unsure how the MPs from back then would recognize the new Blue Machine they became.
Unsure? It’s pretty clear. They wouldn’t.
http://tinyurl.com/4qeerw
Robert G. Rabil, Hezbollah: Lebanon’s Power Broker
Over the past decade, Hezbollah has undergone a major metamorphosis. From its origins as a radical sectarian militia in the 1980s, it has migrated into Lebanon’s political mainstream. In the process, Hezbollah has acquired the institutional trappings of a state and the capabilities of an army…
If you can’t get enough of American politics and government:
John Samples, A Critique of the National Popular Vote
The National Popular Vote plan (NPV), introduced in more than 40 states, and adopted by 4, proposes an interstate compact to bring about direct election of the president of the United States. The proposal eliminates states as electoral districts in presidential elections by creating a national electoral district for the presidential election, thereby advancing a national political identity for the United States. States with small populations and states that are competitive may benefit from the electoral college. Few states clearly benefit from direct election of the president. NPV brings about this change without amending the Constitution, thereby undermining the legitimacy of presidential elections. It also weakens federalism by eliminating the role of the states in presidential contests. NPV nationalizes disputed outcomes and cannot offer any certainty that states will not withdraw from the compact when the results of an election become known. NPV will encourage presidential campaigns to focus their efforts in dense media markets where costs per vote are lowest; many states now ignored by candidates will continue to be ignored under NPV. For these reasons, states should not join the National Popular Vote compact.
[Full text in PDF or HTML — the choice is yours].
Taliban Jack Layton (NDP) and Liberal Citoyen Dion = socialists.
Here is the natural end result of their socialism.
…-
“Severe famine overtaking Zimbabwe
MUTARE, Zimbabwe, Oct. 14 (UPI) — Famine on a scale never before seen in Zimbabwe is quickly and quietly overtaking the country, aid workers said.
Emaciated children are dying a rate that is overwhelming rural hospitals and is even spreading to sections of the urban middle classes as a result of an economic catastrophe brought about by President Robert Mugabe’s policies, The Times of London reported Tuesday.
The newspaper said that an undercover 600-mile journey through Zimababwe’s Manicaland province revealed exhausted food reserves and widespread instances of kwashiorkor, marasmus and pellagra — diseases brought about by hunger.
About 5 million people in Zimbabwe are facing starvation, two-thirds of the country’s children cannot attend school and water shortages have led to deadly cholera outbreaks, The Times reported.
“Malnutrition is a silent emergency that affects young children and they die quietly,” Geoff Foster, a pediatrician in a hospital in Mutare, told the newspaper. “There is a famine situation prevailing and it is desperate.”
Food shortages started in 2000 when Mugabe began confiscating white-owned farms for political reasons, and although he has partially relaxed a ban on food distribution by aid agencies, restrictions are still severely handicapping relief delivery, aid officials say.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2105330/posts
Vote for Ossama
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10112008/news/politics/barack_osama_on_ballot_133078.htm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1077490/Filming-John-Travolta-movie-Paris-housing-estate-halted-rioting-youths-threaten-crew-torch-cars.html
who’da thunk it.
Ottawa pledges to backstop banks
Tories signal they’re ready to guarantee loans – oin Callan, National Post
Confirmed on the eve of the election, the implicit public guarantee of private debt by the Conservatives represents a historic departure from free-market principles and signals a profound loss of confidence in the global banking system….After initially putting up $25-billion of public money to buy mortgages, the Department of Finance is prepared to increase that limit as needed up to $225-billion, at which point the risk of taxpayer losses starts to rise sharply….
Ah, the Faux-Cons, with their hands on the tiller, have enough cajones to ask you for a reach-around.
Thanks to you taxpayer, you have backstopped an industry that removed a total of $19 billion in profits from the Canadian landscape in 2007 – presumeably in exchange for assuming ‘risk’ to do it. The treasury is looted while the lemmings stare at their shoes.
A picture says a thousand words:
http://www.nationalpost.com/todays_paper/story.html?id=877989
CTV(tass) says 700, CBCpravda says 2300 jobs. who is telling the truth. to paraphrase our former leader and full time lieberano. the truth is the truth is da truth.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081014/Daimler_plant_081014/20081014?hub=TopStories
Winner for the most obvious headline of the day goes to…….
“Ontario votes play key role in election outcome”
Updated Tue. Oct. 14 2008 2:35 PM ET
“Political pundits are keeping a close eye on Ontario voters Tuesday as the province is expected to play a major role in deciding which party will have control over Canada’s next government.”
Year after year, election after election. So why do they call it news?
http://www.ctv.ca/
I think there was a time when not even the media could discuss politics the actual day of the vote.
But, that sure is not true anymore.
Who needs candidates to zip it, when the media can bring in anyone they like to give party positions, errors made during the campaigns, or have pollsters go on and on about suppositions.
The oh-so tolerant left on display again (i.e. pictures)
———
…where are the media reports about Obama supporters wearing t-shirts calling Sarah Palin a C*nt?
[…]
There were worse. There was group as well carrying around a fake dead fetus – exclaiming that “abortion should have been the path for Bristol(?) Palin”.
[…]
Was this reported on the Philadelphia News. No!. Was anyone outraged? No!
http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot.com/2008/10/obama-supporters-call-sarah-palin-cnt.html
Rents and housing prices soaring in Iraq…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081014/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq_house_hunting_1