Roger Pielke Jr;
Back in April, THB broke the news to the world that the only three official reference scenarios used for the past 15 years in much of climate research, assessment and policy had been retired. The CMIP71 conclusion that RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, and SSP3-7.0 were “implausible” was huge news.
Today, I share more big news about how official climate scenarios continue to evolve.
CMIP7 has just published the final versions of its new scenarios as they have emerged from integrated assessment models (IAMs), updating the placeholders that accompanied their April announcement. The final versions — once again — dramatically reduces the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels from the April placeholders.
The table below shows just how large these changes are in gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide emitted from the burning of fossil fuels to 2100 — both in terms of the highest cumulative emissions across the scenario set (in the first bullet below) and in terms of the scenarios designated as reference or current policy […]
Do read the whole thing, including the conclusions at the end: The massive scale-back of projected future carbon dioxide emissions means, all else equal, less future changes in climate; As a consequence, there will surely be enormous political pressures placed on the climate science community to create projections with greater changes in climate, based on factors other than carbon dioxide emissions
Related: How Much Disinformation Can A Person Pack Into A Talk About Disinformation?
“The massive scale-back of projected future carbon dioxide emissions means, all else equal, less future changes in climate; …”
– They sure do, Skippy! CO2 in the atmosphere is currently 4/10,000ths of the total; and I see this year they’ve gone from saying humanity emits 4% of that, to claiming we emit 11%. Which is a mighty big change over one year, especially as ants emit 10%. And China and India are far-and-away the biggest emitters of CO2 (China burned half the coal used in the world, two years ago), and the two of them blatantly don’t give a $hit about “Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming”, except insofar as it scares western alarmists into buying Chinese and Indian solar panels.
But the good news in all this, is that the solar panel market is crashing; so hopefully the word is getting out about the Great CAGW Scam. One can only hope… #SMH
So their bullshit is less bullshitty?
Climate Doom was, is and always shall be for Elites to wag fingers at filthy proles.
How dare they?!
Despite being accused of being a Bible Thumper … I’ve NEVER stood on a street corner with a sandwich board claiming: REPENT THE END IS NEAR !! TURN OR BURN !!
But the Inconvenient Truthers have …
“enormous political pressures placed on the climate science community to create projections with greater changes in climate, based on factors other than carbon dioxide emissions”
enormous political pressures = $tax dollars
When politics dictates to science, science loses.
Don’t expect anyone to admit they were wrong; they’ll just change the angle of misdirection and keep on going.
Excerpt from a critique of Toronto’s climate change guidance documents, sent to every councillor.
“The report implies that urgent local action can “avoid the worst impacts of climate change,” but omits essential scientific context from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2023 Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Page 19:
“For every 1000 GtCO₂ emitted… global surface temperature rises by 0.45°C.”
• Toronto’s total annual emissions: 15.3 Mt (0.0153 Gt)
• Toronto’s impact on climate: 0.45°C x 0.0153Gt per year = 0.0069°C per year
• ≈ 1°C every 145,000 years
This is not controversial. Toronto’s total emissions have a mathematically negligible effect on global temperature. The City’s report does not disclose this. Climate change program ‘success’ is measured in tonnes of CO₂, an abstract metric that obscures the true scale of impact on temperature. This omission denies councillors the context required to evaluate climate expenditures relative to measurable global outcomes.”
Link to IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (“AR6″”:
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf
But, but, but … the FIRES and the SMOKE in Toronto!! ohhhhhhhhhhhh mommmaaaaaaaa. Capitalist dogs are DESTROYING the environment. We’re all gonna BURN! Net Zero NOW!
Hmmm…
I wonder who is setting all of those fires?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsLYTVzdCRg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8hJFGqD_xs
It certainly isn’t lightning.
Pielke Jr. discusses the discredited, rejected alarmist climate scenarios. Toronto’s propaganda says they atre “possible” outcomes:
“Report Page 5 “looks at how Toronto’s climate has changed and what future climate conditions COULD BE based on TWO possible climate scenarios.” This is a demonstrably false premise. Only ONE of the scenarios cited by the report is ‘possible.’ (my EMPHASIS)
The report features SSP5‑8.5 — an extreme theoretical ‘very high’ emissions scenario — as “possible.” In fact, the bodies officially responsible for climate scenario (CMIP6) governance (WCRP, WMO, ISC, UNESCO IOC) have FORMALLY rejected SSP5‑8.5. It will NOT appear in future reports.
Finding the Truth in Canada? Hah.
Like finding an honest Librano. There’s rumours they exist,but no one has ever met one.
I’m betting the Great Climate Scam is far from over.
Facts are not ever required by the Left.
Nor the Canadian Media.
Nor the Canadian Courts.
Nor Canadian Scientists.
Feelings man,feelings!
It is Canada.
Where the Big Lie has taken up permanent residence.
The Velvet Fist Authoritarian Libranos run a One-Party State.
The ONLY question is, is it a result of election cheating(ala Phantom) or are the Conservatives really the Washington Generals?
Sorry Phantom, no doubt the Libranos are cheating, they are Libranos after all, but I have to go with the latter.
I just can’t believe any party could be as inept, as incompetent and lose as often as the Cons.
Not even the Leafs are that bad.
No rational Party would deal with the stacked deck in Canada and do NOTHING about it ever. NOTHING!
Just doesn’t compute.
Barca, the sad truth is that no politician or political party can bell the cat on climate change. The activist propaganda machine includes the United Nations, most Western governments and nearly all of the media.
An innumerate public is functionally incapable of looking at and understanding mainstream science even though it’s readily accessible.
The press is worse: Firstly, they have been coopted by the government. Secondly, as a friend once told me: “The reason we all ended up in journalism school is that we couldn’t pass grade nine science.”
It is not that the Conservatives don’t know better. They see the challenge of educating the public as insurmountable. And, yes, they are also cowardly.
In the last 60 years, we got Mulroney doing an amazing imitation of a Librano. Spot on.
Then Harper. Did an amazing imitation of a Turtle. Again spot on.
That’s it.
Governing roughly 25% of the time.
And certainly not like Conservatives at any time.
Librano-lite at best.
The Cons needed an Adscam to get a minority.
I say better to FA and FO than to never FA at all.
Cowardly is by far too inadequate to describe the Cons.
I’m sure Andy Capp was channeling the Canadian Conservative Party when he invented Joe Btfsplk.
Just to clarify for you. Al Capp was the Lil Abner comic strip creator.
Andy Capp was a British comic strip noted for the hero spending too much time on the couch and fighting with his wife, Flo.
https://www.gocomics.com/andycapp
The climate change scam uses the same methodology as Eric Blair, aka George Orwell, wrote about in his books, 1984 and Animal Farm.
1) Create a lie in order to exert greater control over people and/or steal their wealth
2) Assign the junk science creation to a team of professional liars
3) Send in the client-facing liars (i.e. David Suzuki, Michael Mann, Al Gore, etc.)
4) Cover the lie incessantly on the various state controlled propaganda agencies (CBC, BBC, CNN, etc.)
5) Write BS sciency-sounding papers to back the lies
6) Write “peer-reviewed” papers to back the original papers
7) Mock and persecute those who see through the lies
Don’t forget the big one:
The Opposition is cowardly, feckless, pusillanimous and apparently not too bright.
And losers. Don’t forget losers.
I don’t believe there is an opposition. There is instead a controlled-opposition party. The people who rule over us require the illusion of at least one opposition party to prevent the people from seeing through the thinly-veiled fascism dressed up as democracy.
The controlled-opposition party, as a result, will always team up with the overtly ruling party when an actual alternative arises such as the Reform Party federally and the Wildrose Party provincially in Alberta.
The ultra far left extremists of the communist party (aka the NDP) and the bat-shit crazy cat lady party (aka the Green Party) exist to make the fascists (Liberals) appear moderate.
What a magical country!
Name a conspiracy and Poof! there it is……as real as a Liberal hand in your pocket.
“The controlled-opposition party, as a result, will always team up with the overtly ruling party when an actual alternative arises such as the Reform Party federally and the Wildrose Party provincially in Alberta.”
Or the PPC, yes.
There are a lot of Poilievre fans here who are still in denial, but actions speak louder than words and PP’s actions have been nothing but Liberal-Lite for years already: starting with his enthusiastic support for the Quebec dairy cartel, his agreement that all Canadian are guilty of ‘genocide’ because of the residential schools, his cowardice over the trucker’s convoy and most recently his wholesale support of the ‘Elbows Up’ idiots.
I am still told that I am “wasting” my vote on the PPC, that my failing to support the CPC will “allow the Liberals to win again”. I reject that utterly, because a win by the CPC would STILL be a win for the Liberals…just for the other Liberals pretending to be ‘conservatives’. The “change from within” talking point is equally inane: when Harper was in power, what exactly did he change?
Canada needs to hit rock bottom economically before we have even a hope of substantive change, and even then it’s a long shot. 🙁
I firmly believe that any substantive change will never come from voting, regardless of the economical situation.
To think otherwise relies on believing that elections are not rigged.
Exactly, Watto.
Even unrigged Democracy is suicide.
Fully agree, Buddy.
We are programmed to praise democracy, when it is simply another term for mob rule. It is akin to allowing squatters who broke into your shed to get to vote on your household affairs.
Those with no skin in the game, and who don’t contribute should have no say in government. And regardless of the system of government, no government should have the power to redistribute income in any form.
You’re such a denier. In a related story … I read the Canadian Injuns are demanding that (fake) Injun grave denialism be criminalized. Criminal! Criminal!
Mao would be so proud.
Venn diagram with 4 concentric circles (at least these 4):
People who believe in the climate hoax, people who think socialism works, people who think men can have babies and women can have a penis, people who are mentally ill
and the IDIOTS who believe a world wide flood killed every one and all animals except those on a boat, are as stupid as those who believe the climate bullshit. Tell me fools how were all those boat critters fed for about 2 years, as every thing was destroyed?????
When you are NO better than those who you criticize………
GYM is the greatest source of methane on SDA.
I’m thinking that Kate should create the occasional Christian-themed post so that NME can fill his boots there.
I’m also guessing he/she/it is some sort of relation that she is forced to tolerate. Otherwise it’s continued moderator-tolerated presence here is a mystery.
I found a picture of 666 with her “husband” …
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA27ZtAs.img?w=2000&h=1333&m=4&q=90
I can’t wait until there’s a Christian remake of “Bambi”. Then we can torment GYM with clips of Bible Thumper!
Breaking on Fox Radio News:
Outraged Michigan Democrats criticize Canada’s Liberal PM Mark Carney over out-of-control Canadian wildfires. Michigan is demanding Canada take immediate action to put out the wildfires burning for years. Michigan claims these fires have been effecting Michigan’s air quality and quality of life for the last four years.
CHICAGO AIR QUALITY ALERT DUE TO CANADUAN WILDFIRES
WLS radio host reports Tourism Canada is sponsoring free lung screening for those planning Canadian vacations.
SOMEBODY NOTIFY THE FRENCH GOVT ABOUT THE REAL SOURCE OF THE HEAT DOME OVER EUROPE
Ned Ryun on X:
The irony here is staggering. The virtue signaling from Canadian leaders about global warming blah blah blah and yet every freaking summer forest fires in Canada, because they won’t do the proper management of forests, dumps 200 tons of carbon AN HOUR into the air that then drifts south in the U.S. Trump should take this issue up in trade negotiations.
Matt Maddock
@matthewmaddock
14h
The Canadian environmental police are pumping out 200 tons of carbon an hour today. More than the entire USA does every five years.
11:42 AM · Jul 16, 2026
CANADIAN WILDFIRES
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/07/watch-terrifying-video-shows-freight-train-crew-encased
Detroit, Minneapolis and Chicago ranked among the top five most polluted major cities in the world on Thursday, as air quality alerts stretched from Minnesota to parts of the Northeast….reached hazardous levels.
An air quality advisory was in effect Thursday for all of New York state, and officials said N95-style masks would be distributed to commuters in New York City.
Planning class action lawsuit. Do we sue the Carney government in Ottawa or the First Nations?
“The massive scale-back of projected future carbon dioxide emissions means…”
… they’ll celebrate having saved the planet
… rub ‘deniers’ noses in it
… and move on
When everything’s bullshit,
commies cannot not double down.
This topic absolutely triggers me:
IPCC (once a darling of the alarmists) clearly states that there is a numerical relationship between CO2 and temperature. You can debate the accuracy of their eastimate, but not the fact that the claim exists. “For every 1000 GtCO₂ emitted… global surface temperature rises by 0.45°C.” This is 0.00000045°C per megatonne per year.
So, if the objective of a program is to defer global temperatures, why not measure the impact in degrees?
Canada’s original carbon tax was expected to reduce emissions by 90 megatonnes by 2023. That means absolutely nothing to the average voter! A bit of simple arithmetic would have made the topic meaningful: 90 megatonnes / year x 0.00000045°C / megatonne = 0.00004°C / year.
In other words, the annual impact on temperature of the carbon tax emissions reduction (if actually achieved) was 1°C per 24,000 years!
Would informed taxpayers have supported this?
If Canada really cared about the environment, they wouldn’t be polluting the air in the US by allowing forest fires.
If they cared, they wouldn’t be importing millions of spear-chuckers, vest-clackers, beach-shitters and dune-coons who end up carbonating (I’m calling Trademark!) like Canadians to stay warm, deliver food or pretend they like hockey.
Don’t forget: YOU are the carbon they want to reduce.
Canada invented CAGW.
It was orchestrated by “Uncle Mo” AKA Maurice Strong,with the active support of the Chretin Liberals and Canadian Civil Service.
History has shown us,all roads lead to China with this group of liars and thieves.
And they knew they were lying.
This is well documented,Christine stewart being one of the most honest about her willing participation in this fraud.
Policy Based Evidence Manufacturing has become the norm for Canadian Bureaucrats.
Evidence based policy making being so much more unpredictable and open to challenge..
Until we reward such fools and bandits,they will continue.
These are the Covinators..
Con artists,hysterics and the extremely gullible,forming an unholy alliance we have come to know as Gang Green.
A few months back I heard “and it isn’t just CO2”. That was a pivot and now I know why..