Place your bets!

44 Replies to “Place your bets!”

1. The US forces will lay waste to the batteries surrounding Hormuz.
   Everytime a drone or shell is fired, it’s being traced to Point of Origin, where that location will be wasted.
   Won’t take long, maybe a week.
   I would fill up today, but not get all excited about extreme prices.

2. I have upped my investments in Western Canadian oil companies during the last two months (I owned Freehold, Paramount, Surge, and Whitecsp). But I sold all my Surge shares for a decent capital gain. But with the price of oil way up energy stock prices rose only modestly so far. Gold shares are slso up, but again only modestly.

   All of this to say that investors believe that the U.S. can reopen the Strait of Hormuz quickly. There’s a debate whether or not that belief is true.

3. C’mon guys and gals, give it a shot!
   I’ll go $79.35 USD a barrel.
   ( haven’t peeked at markets yet)

4. The run up in WTI from $55 to today’s spike in April futures of $75 spike and back to $71 – has been a three months trend. As I understand the fog of this war, the Strait isn’t actually “closed” but insurers are keeping traffic to a minimum. Too early to say whether the Iranian forces go full scorched Earth.

   1. The profit-taking this morning has actually sent many good Oil stocks into the red indicating a sentiment of lower prices going forward. I’ll hold mine for the time being.

5. As always with these types of major events oil prices shoot up for a while and then settle back down again.

6. Mike Harris, best premier in my lifetime. Dug us out of the horror that was Bob Rae, took on the teachers unions (which unfortunately led to losing government). Then we got that piece of corrupt garbage Dalton McGuinty, and ultimately the even more corrupt Ford.

   1. I’ll never forget getting a robo call during the Conservative leadership campaign with Mike Harris promoting Belinda Stronach over Harper. Certainly a questionable judge of character.

      1. john
         Speaking of questionable judge of character, have you looked in the mirror lately?

         1. What makes you think he’s visible in mirrors?

7. My guess is… oil will peak at $85/bbl and rapidly reset around $70/bbl

   Isn’t that a price that actually makes Brian’s oil sand extraction profitable? So why isn’t Brian dancing in the streets like all the truly patriotic Iranian people? Like all the FREE people of Iran … no longer living in the Gulag Islamopeligo? Let’s just hope that 2 weeks of relentless pounding of the Theocratic State actually DOES bring about regime change … and soon.

   No thanks to our British or Canadian “allies”.

8. I think that 2 industries will get a price bump from the iran bombing. Oil, of course, but also fertilizer companies in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Apparently, a big middle eastern country’s fertilizer operations (urea) is being heavily impacted. They provide fertilizer to Asia so Asian countries may need to find other suppliers.

   How long this bump lasts depends on the duration of the conflict. Could be over in a few weeks. The worse case scenario is that Iran follows Iraq’s playbook when they were pushed out of Kuwait. Iraq set the Kuwait oilfields on fire. Other variable are the strait of hormuz and the conflict spiralling into a bigger regional conflict, as has likely been mentioned on other Iran war threads.

   1. Since Iran has already struck at several Persian Gulf nations, it already is a regional conflict. The question is if all those other nations will remain defensive, or start shooting back?

      As for Israel, the design of its submarine fleet is very …. interesting. They have an enormous number of bow torpedo tubes, such that they can sneak into a harbour and sink every ship at anchor or tied up with one firing. Perhaps Karg Island, where Iran loads all its oil, was the reason for this design? I wonder if and when that might play out?

      1. Hahahaha ha (a ha ha … what? Are you listening to that idiot Tucker Carlson? Let me explain the “regional” conflict to you … it’s the USA, Israel, and every other ME country against Iran. Thank you Iran! For showing your neighbors that you HATE their brand of Islam. Iran has further isolated itself from the family of man. Think of it … Iran has UNITED Jew and Muslim against their impulsive terrorism. This “regional conflict” is like 10 v 1. Sure … regional … conflict.

         I guess that’s what their dead Ayatollah would have wanted as his fulfillment of EXTREME Islamic end of the world prophecy. Just kill all those apostates in a blaze of glory.

         Pssst … Iran is a dead country walking. Regional PEACE and cooperation is at hand.

         1. We are kinda saying the same thing, Kenji. It’s everyone vs Iran. And yes, that includes Israel.
            Ever see the Norm Macdonald bit on Germany taking on THE WORLD? Kinda reminds me of that, with similar results.
            Except Iran is no Germany. Maybe when it was Persia and going back oh 3000 years ago it was, but not now.
            https://youtu.be/uXdtafGdIVM?si=vpsvFTu506YsLVf2

            1. Brian … I actually WANT you and I to agree on most everything. Because I fully support the fossil fuel industry … everywhere. I want you to succeed, and all those you represent to succeed.

               BTW … I just checked the 1-year rate of return on my boring old Energy Index Fund that I bought last April 1 … on Trump Tariff stock market panic day. This boring basket of Energy stocks is UP +41.4% in less than a year. Killer Marmot hardest hit.

         2. Kenji, Shia Iran has hated Sunni Arab nations from the very beginning. It was no secret to anybody in those countries.

            “While the two sects share core Islamic beliefs, the conflict intensified in modern times, particularly after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which established a Shia theocratic state under Ayatollah Khomeini. This shift triggered a regional power struggle between Sunni-led Saudi Arabia and Shia-led Iran, fueling proxy wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. Sectarian violence has surged, including the Iraq War, the Syrian Civil War, and attacks by extremist groups like ISIS, which targeted both communities.”

            1. And other than the proxy Houthi’s lobbing missiles into Saudi Arabia … or the Iran-Iraq war … how many times has Iran fired missiles into the Brand-Y Muslim States? All of them … all at once? Seems they’ve now upped their aggression and hatred against the Apostates, eh?

            2. I would say that proxy wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, as well as the Iran-Iraq war and the Syrian civil war trump the missiles launched by Iran recently, eh?.

               The key word in the above is “war”, mentioned several times, eh?.

         3. I’m hoping all the other ME countries stay out of the actual attacks on Iran.

            This is a rare situation in which most of the Iranian populace can be considered to be on our side. We don’t want to kill them. We need exact targeting of the bad guys only.

            Not sure a general pile-on would work towards that goal.

      2. Brian,

         Yes, the Iranian regime is not one that is likely to just surrender and fade away. If they are going down, then I can see them wanting to take as many other countries as they can down with them. I hope I’m wrong.

         1. Trump basically gave the Iranian regime the same “unconditional surrender” line that Germany and Japan were given in 1945. The problem with that is the other side see they have no choice but to fight to the death. And as you correctly point out, if you’re going down anyways, might as well take everyone else with you.

            1. “The problem with that is the other side see they have no choice but to fight to the death. ”

               The difference here, I think, is that the vast majority of Iranians absolutely *hate* their government (who recently killed about 35,000 of them) and thus see the US/Israel air strikes as a good thing. It is these people who are the real threat to the regime, not the outside world. Lashing out at surrounding nations will do them no good at all.

               I predict that many of the IRGC will be dropping their guns, stripping off their uniforms and casually blending into the crowds as they figure out where to flee to. Likewise for any remaining mullahs or clerics who worked for the regime.

         2. Iran is a long way from “going down” at this point. Regime change is unlikely to be carried out via air strikes alone. You need boots on the ground for that, either by direct intervention of the US or else a proxy army to do your fighting for you. I don’t see any indication that this is forthcoming.

            1. The CIA pretty well mismanaged Ukraine into a shitshow … perhaps they can get back on the RIGHT side this time … and work their black magic FOR the Iranian people?

            2. Well, air strikes are far different than they were even 10 years ago. The precision today makes it a very different kettle of fish.

9. WTI April is at 70.77 up 3.75 on the day
   WTI May is at 70.36 up 3.47
   WTI Jun is at 69.53 up 2.97

   Those look like they are expecting a short war, and return to normal. Peak was $74.84 yesterday.

   Brent May is at 77.40 up 4.53
   Brent Jun is at 75.89 up 3.60

   Murban May is at 78.32 up 4.08 but off it’s high today of 83.03.
   Again, not much of a disruption and down from the peak of $81.53 yesterday.

   Gas April is at $2.358 up 0.072, but down from it’s highs of $2.495 earlier today.

   So some speculation that it’ll go up a bit, but nothing like what JPMorgan is pushing for at $120 a barrel.

   1. And OPEC just committed to increasing production.

10. Cut-throat people filling at the gas stations in Nova Scotia (Halifax anyway) this afternoon. People expecting the government regulator to use the interrupter clause to bump us from $1.36 per litre to potentially $1.75 or more. Price goes up fast, comes down really slowly…

    1. COSTCO dramatically expanded their local gas station aisles about 6 mos. ago. Since then … I have NEVER had to wait in a line there to get gas. Last night, at dinner time, on a Sunday … I had to wait in line to get gas. The gas was $4.19/gal. which is $0.60/gal. LESS than I paid about two weeks ago at the same COSTCO.

       Is it war panic? Or simply Trump’s economy reversing Bidenflation? Search me … but I was happy for the windfall none the less.

       $1.36/lit = approx. $5.44/gal. x 1.30 = $7.00/gal. in US $??!!!

       Wow … Canada needs a Trump

       1. Much like your Bay Area, Victoria is the Center of Greentopia along the coast.
          Despite the vile, hyperbolic rhetoric of GlowBull Warming that comes from this region, which includes Lizard May, the lineups at the Costco pumps say otherwise.
          Always lineups here that take about 15-20 minutes to complete. Regular is a nickel or more cheaper per litre, and Premium is at least 10 cents per litre cheaper than elsewhere.
          Prognosis? Green support is a Mile Wide! And an Inch Deep!

       2. Kenji, is the Canadian dollar higher than the US dollar now?

          I ask because that $7/gal sounds high.

          I just filled up (Minnesota, USA) at $2.84/gal.

          1. Yeah … I don’t live in one of those CHEAP gasoline States. Here in CA … our government and unelected bureaucratic deep state … PUNISH us for using fossil fuels to power our automobiles. Hence $4.19 is a sensational low price for gasoline here.

       3. $7.00 US?

          Try again.

          1. I believe he was speaking of the Canadian price. $7 … business as usual.

             1. Check Kenji’s math

             2. Well … at least I REPEAT the same math error … as I’ve transposed the 0.70 and 1.30 once before. I claim dyslexia … like Gavin Newsom. EVERY Californian has dyslexia. We must!?

11. Mike Harris, former premier of Ontario, will be talking nuclear power generation on the Pipeline Online Podcast on Tues.,

    Good guy and all but it just occurred to me after reading something from Chretien relic Lloyd Axworthy this morning, weighing in of course about Trump violating international law, that these people never really go away.
    They’re always in the starting blocks waiting for their closeup.

    1. I’m not sure it’s waiting for their close up. More likely they are inserting themselves into the situation to protect their own financial interests. A lot of these old politicians seem to have business and personal connections to some pretty shady people and foreign business relationships.

    2. Just like Antifa, who always have a gas mask close to hand.

    3. Axworthy is an ass. Isn’t he the clown who came up with the stupid phrase “soft power” when referring to Canada? The guy is a clown.

12. And which country suffers the most from problems with the Strait of Hormuz?

    tick Tock tick Tock……..

    CHYNA!
    Maybe this should drag out a little while.

    1. A LOOONG while.

    2. And the Venezuela supply has dried up for China. I wonder if people are starting to see the strategy behind what the U.S. is doing? I doubt it…..they are too stupid to be able to see beyond one move.