If the Canadian government decides to go ahead with plans to shut off the supply of oil to the United States, the bigger crisis will be a financial one, not a national unity kerfuffle. Companies facing bankruptcy when forced to abrogate their contracts will have to be compensated by taxpayers and that bill will be big enough to send us begging to the IMF.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says that if the federal government imposes an export ban on Alberta oil going to the United States as a retaliatory measure against expected U.S. tariffs it would precipitate a “national unity crisis.”
In addition, the United States is probably aware that the petrochemical supply runs both ways in some regions.
In 2023, Canada imported 16.9 million metric tons of crude oil from the United States, which was the largest quantity Canada imported from any country.
Danielle Smith should be the new Governor of Canada.
And PM if Trump doesn’t annex us.
any one who went through the NEP has an understanding of what that will be like. You want cheap housing? After shutting off the taps to the US Alberta and Saskatchewan houses will be dirt cheap as everyone walks away from their mortgage.
The house in Calgary’s Braeside area which we bought in 1996 at $155k was built for $140k in 1979, and a pair of these same houses on the same type of pie shaped lots, sold in this neightborhood for $60k a couple of months after the National Energy Program was brought to the west.
#Librano Energy Minister Marc Lalonde said at the time, “we know what we’re doing, we really do”
I believe he did. The #Libranos knew exactly what they were doing.
Calgary detached housing starts fell from about 11k to 1000 in a span of 1.5 years.
It wasn’t just house prices that were affected by the NEP; a lot of energy companies pulled in their horns and sluffed off many employees.
I had several friends who worked in the oilpatch but ended up moving back to southern Ontario when they were let go.
Lupus solus, of course. There were some people who jumped from balconies downtown too, the Separate School Board building downtown was left with 5 levels of exposed rusting steelworks for +6 years. it affected everyone I know in a way that, when I hear mention of NEP times, they’re reasonable people, calm, well natured, yet they can scarcely contain the anger directed at everything Liberal, some people lost everything and were destroyed. I don’t mean to say only that housing starts were stalled… as it divided families as well, and that political divide will never heal.
My family in Regina, SK has said to me, “people in AB need to get over it” and I’ve responded with, “we’ll talk about this when old Canada pays AB back for that oil”
There was the $80 Billion price tag mentioned as the cost to AB. but talks seem to be stalled at the moment…
There are thousands of stories like this, and everyone here was destroyed in their own way.
liberal governments have always been a disaster for Canada. Will Canadians ever wake up
there may have been a time, buuuut . . . the TURDeau triple play says never again
Trump voter here and not quite sure what Trump is up to in this picking on Canada.
Was it an anti-Trudeau thing and not anti-Canada?
As Danielle Smith probably told him in Mar a Lago this past weekend, if you take out oil and gas, Canada runs a huge trade deficit with the United States. She probably also told him that 50 US refineries need Canada oil to operate given the mix of types of oil they need to operate.
I mean does Trump want to buy oil from Venezuela, Iran and Qatar who hate our guts?
Our huge trade deficit is with largely with China not Canada.
On January 20th I hope this nonsense goes away or Trump has an ulterior motive that works for both Canada and the US. I mean I have never met an American that has ever looked at Canada as anything but a good neighbor despite having bad PM’s – then again we are getting rid of a bad President in a few days.
Trump is hoping Canada blinks.
Exactly. All this effing drama over obvious negotiation.
Anyway, don’t put it past Trump to purchase Pemex from Mexico.
It’s two things. Possibly three.
One, it’s battlespace prep for the eventual negotiations. This is how Trump works; he perturbs the other side by hitting them in their vanities and insecurities. He’s accurately divined that Canadians are going to gaze across the border at the bull market he’s about to create in stark raving envy and demand their government do something.
Second, Trump knows he’s not going to be negotiating with Trudeau. By the time Trump gets around to opening these negotiations it’ll be past October. He thinks he’s going to be negotiating with the CPC, who are historically a lot more US-friendly. He’s handing them the ability to look good after the negotiations because he’ll reverse the rhetoric and talk about Canada’s historic ties with the US and never mention the 51st state thing again. It’s persuasion aimed at Canadians: when the Liberal are in power the US mocks Canada; when the Cons are in power the US is Canada’s friend.
(Possibly) three: he’s distracting the media with ridiculous claims about Canada and Greenland to get focus off of confirming his cabinet so he can get them in place quickly.
Such actions would also result in at least the following:
Sky high gasoline prices for the Lower Rainland and Island. A majority of gas is imported from Washington State, the rest from the TM pipeline. BC will scream.
Morontariowe refineries could also be cut off from US crude. No East/West pipelines in Canada, of course. No oil, no gas for Morontariowe and Queerbec, as the US processes its own crude not sent from Alberta.
Our governments in Canada are stupid beyond reason, but let hell reign down anyways.
What’s so hard about cooperating with President-elect Trump’s border security requests. Be specific Canada. What have you been asked to do, that you refuse to do? Please itemize in detail.
Exactly Kenji. Funny that.
Governments have built a mollycoddle industry of social workers and soft headed health “workers” around the whole addictions industry. Hate to see that end, of course.
Then, of course, there’s the illegal immigrants and the grey areas of the current visa regimes in play in Canada, from TFWs to student visas and the whole family migrations that are permitted here.
The LIEberals are married to both issues. Dare to say the Conservatives will act on the addictions industry, but, with immigration, they are friendly to foreigners too.
This country seems to want a shitload of pain without realizing how bad it can be. Sometimes spoiled brats need harsh lessons to grow up. This country needs a WORLD OF PAIN to grow up.
Yeah … we’re getting the PAIN good and hard … when 99% leftist colonies get completely incinerated by leftist policies. But they’ll all still vote Kamala Harris next CA Gov.
If East L.A., Compton and Long Beach burned down, it might be a different story. Instead, it’s the rich areas, and no one sympathizes with them.
I find it fascinating that the U S wants Canada to police the border from the Canadian side when in reality the U S should be preventing any and all illegals from entering the country. In my yard it is my responsibility to keep people out not my neighbors.
“What’s so hard about cooperating with President-elect Trump’s border security requests. Be specific Canada. What have you been asked to do, that you refuse to do? Please itemize in detail.”
Probably exactly the same as he demanded from Mexico: stop illegal immigrants and fentanyl from coming across the border. Mexico talked tough too, then did exactly as Trump asked.
Kenji
It’s not about border security. If it was simply border security, all Trump has to do is recall US troops from overseas, and station them in the border.
The troops not on the border could inspect the 960 million di minimis packages that come direct from China, which the U.S. decided in 2016 were too much trouble to inspect. Gee wasn’t Trump president in 2016
Joke
On full STUPID agin I see, NO Trump was not president in 2016.
Gym
Trump was elected in 2016, assumed office in Jan 2017.
Did he rescind the di minimis policy of 2016?
No
Small package shipments to the US were 200 billion in 2016.
Once Trump took office small package shipments skyrocketed to 600 million in 2020 Trump’s last full year of office.
Trump did nothing to stop it.
Under Biden, shipments increased to 1 billion small packages a year, 690 million from China.
Much of the fentanyl coming from China is via these small packages (according to US sources), since there are too many to be inspected.
In the words of “The Fonze”, Exactamundo!
Trump wants border security to combat illegal migration into the US. Pretty small numbers in general from Canada but a very high % are on terrorist suspect lists. Canada lets a lot of bad bastards into Canada who come here for the purpose of sneaking into the US to do harm. We should have tightened up the incoming border security long ago.
He wants border security to restrict drugs going into the US. Canadian-source drugs are comparatively low, but GROWING, especially for fentanyl. We should tighten the border against the importation of precursor chemicals ,especially from China.
He also obviously wants us to spend a lot more on our own protection. So do I as a former army officer!
He wants Canada to buy more US stuff. I think we should buy a shit-load of US made military hardware off the shelf and avoid the cumbersome politically interfered military procurement horror show we have had for ever. That could do a lot to balance the trade deficit as well as getting off the pot on our NATO requirements.
And that is my rant for tonight.
I know a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy who can get you some submarines.
To your point, redundancy in procurement of military hardware between the US and Canada is crazy, and undoubtedly wasteful to the tune of many billions of dollars of either nationality. For the most part, I’m sure we’re buying the same stuff.
Cheers.
This is where I think Trump has misread Canada. I’m not sure he’s aware of the bone-deep, reflexive anti-Americanism that’s been cultivated in this country for generations. Remember, huge numbers of Canadians actually believe the Avro Arrow was cancelled solely because the US was jealous of our awesome fighter plane and told us to stop.
Trump may not realize how much the suggestion that Canada become the 51st state could galvanize all of Canada behind any PM that “stands up” to the eeeEEEEeeevil USA.
Oh, I think Trump assumes rightly that the Turd is not going to galvanize anybody, and that the US would have to do actual harm to Canada to incur anything like real animosity. By inciting the reflexive bigotry now he helps ensure that it’s exhausted and discredited by the time we see action.
How now do the Liberals see wealth in the West oil! Numb nuts Trudeau and Singh have been trying to put our Oil Industry out of business!
Those Eastern Bastards should stop sales of their Maple Syrup!
That would scare Trump!
And I think Kenji is right — President Trump wants our borders secured! I don’t see him putting tariffs on ! We are. close allies and no one wins in a Tariff war!
True, tariff wars can be brutal on both parties, however, it’s not a level playing field.
The US economy is 13x ours. It used to be 10x, but, thanks to TruDOPE, our GDP has fallen precipitously.
This is a war this country will lose, permanently in some regions. Morontariowe has the most to lose, as the US would reclaim its auto industry. Blubber Duggie is playing with fire, and he’s covered in gas.
The US will always have a need for western oil and gas, and the friendlier attitudes that emanate from the west. But, they’ ll ignore Quebec as a bastard child of France, as it should be.
Yeah, well start with the southern border.
This is all posture.
It is not about border issues, it’s about new trade agreements among elite friends.
The trade deficit is a red herring. Of course there is a trade deficit with the US. They are 10x our size and consume probably 20x what we do. A simple fix for Americans is, quit buying. The deficit will disappear.
A national unity crisis? Sure, let me ask a question. Why does Sarnia Ontario have a petrochemical industry? There are 4 major plants there all fed with petroleum stock from Alberta. Talk about moving resources to people. In a crisis maybe a valve closes. Then what?
abKKKraper
Ontario used to have oil derricks pumping crude outa the ground, so there has always been an “oil” industry in ontario. Also recycled oil needs to be reprocessed.
It still has oil derricks. They don’t pump much, but they are pumping oil.
Yeah I’ve been to Petrolia Ontario. The oilfield there couldn’t pump enough oil to keep Petrolia warm in the winter.
Go take a look at the plants in Sarnia. All of them operate on Alberta product.
Gym
Ontario’s oil production is 498 bpd. Wow! Remaining reserves are approximately 10 million barrels.
Ontario’s refining capacity is 402,000 bpd, approximately 290,000 bpd of which is at Sarnia.
I doubt Ontario’s oil production makes much of an impact on those refineries.
Re ‘pain’; I remember only too well the early 1980’s; it was brutal out here on the wet coast
They used to say that Steve Jobs was surrounded by a “reality distortion zone,” which he created, then exploited. I think that Trump one too. It’s a negotiation. He just likes to clear the deck of the old ideas. Sure, it’s fun, but as the poet said, “There’s something that doesn’t love a wall, but good fences make good neighbors.”
The US can’t afford to transfigure the refineries to deal with, primarily, light/sweet crude (which is the majority of US domestic drilling). At least, they can’t do it right away. The reason is that getting a handle on petroleum prices is going to be the basis of taking down inflation. Fuel costs dip, distributors have lower overhead, retailers have lower overhead, consumers see the benefit (as does everyone in the process). Consumer confidence goes up, and demand increases.
But, don’t get too comfortable with that likelihood. Trump was pretty clear that he is interested in a totally self sufficient oil supply. As it is now, it is more lucrative for the oil refineries to handle imported heavy crude and export the light crude. But, if Trump gets a good handle on inflation, the next order of business would be to reconfigure the refineries to deal mainly with US domestically drilled oil. There is a cost involved, but more importantly a wait period in making the change period where product availability would go down (prices up). That doesn’t bode well for Canada, or any other country that depends on the US for refining, and the US light crude.
“…can’t afford…”?
You do realize Biden forgave $150 billion in student loans, right?
roaddog
Politico says Biden has forgiven $186 billion in student debt for 5 million students.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/13/biden-student-loan-relief-150000-borrowers-00197855
But the same article says the US Supreme Court struck down Biden’s plan for $20,000 in debt relief for tens of millions of Americans
Buying votes can be expensive.
why couldnt the rule be some portion of the tuition debt was forgiven just not all of it? make sure the kiddies learn debt doesnt blow away like a dirty kleenex in the wind. part of it ffs, only part Joe. oh. right. dementia.
You misunderstood. The primary focus will be on bringing down inflation. So, they can’t afford (not in a monetary way) to temporarily and artificially increase fuel prices right off the bat (which will occur should they reconfigure the refineries).
I don’t think a Republican House or Senate will approve significant US government spending on oil refineries.
They figure that will get them roundly defeated at the midterms for their oil company give aways
This game of ‘hurt the Yanks with tariffs’ is equivalent to ‘cut the fire budget’. Just shows the ability challenged elites in fine ideological form. A disaster of equivalent magnitude will smash this country. Might not be a fire. Might be a diseased homeless plague. Might be a ‘Beslan’. Regardless, there were warnings; and the people warning were persecuted. Avoid crowds.
Folks don’t talk about Beslan enough. one of the three 9/11 ‘s
And the DJ has received a request from”Anton” for George Turgid and the Destroyers…
That threat (to shut off shipments to USA) has all of the effect of a mouse flipping the bird to a diving hawk. Canada sends $US450 or so billion to USA in a good year. That’s roughly 20% of Canada’s GDP. I’m no expert but a 20% loss of GDP would normally be considered “a castrophe”. BTW, the GDP of Indiana is around $US470 billion, mostly in popcorn or something?
The US might replace Canadian oil with Russian oil.
I am a Trump voter. I just don’t get it. Canadians don’t normally hate our guts with no good reason. Why would our next president give you folks lots of reasons? The rest of the world hates us enough to kill us. I believe Canada is our biggest trade partner. When you all come south, and I see your truck or car tag, I’m the guy that waves and smiles. If we’re at a station, I’m the guy buying coffee for your whole car. Way back in the 60s, I was stationed in West Germany near a CAF air base. We got along. We had training about punching the Russian bear in the mouth. You tried to teach us how to ice skate and play hockey. We taught your guys how to cuss. We don’t need this kind of kerfuffle. We’ve been friends too long.
Wake Up and Smell the Deal.
You need to recognize that the conversation/disagreement has nothing to do with the average (legal) citizen on either side of the border.
The people of Canada are amazing, and I enjoyed every (well OK almost) minute I spent working with and supporting Canadian clients for the last 20 years.
Now lets talk about the politicians…
Anyone who does not recognize Trump’s negotiating tactics must have been in a coma for the last decade.
Well to be clear, the Liberal government in Ottawa was in lock step with the Biden “administration”. They both were taking their marching orders from the globalists and not their citizens. Canadian leftists always like to pretend they are superior. The Liberal/NDP regime will soon be wiped off the electoral map in Canada and the leftists can scramble back under their slimy rocks.
Don’t be fooled by the mouthpiece of the Laurentian elite, the legacy media. Trump is a threat to their power much more than to Canada as a whole, and as a result of us being a post national state, most Canadians? just want to get by and don’t give two shits about an irrelevant flag that stands for nothing.
>Canadians don’t normally hate our guts with no good reason
Dude, you have no idea.
Canada produces oil?
Does Trudeau know about that?
Joly: “Everything’s on the table”
Shut up, stupid.
You should be under the table, humming.
JG: “Was it an anti-Trudeau thing and not anti-Canada?”
Yes, yes, yes!
Trump was PO’ed at Trudeau for being such a disrespectful ass to him. Trump doesn’t hide his feelings well when he feels personally insulted. This was all aimed at Trudeau, and will go away once Trudeau is gone. Now, though, it’s like Canada is all bristly and aggravated and wants a reason to fight.
This is a non-fight. There will be no tariffs. All PP has to do is make some noise about how y’all will watch your borders.
This is all so useless. Trump’s fault – but this is just the way he is. (And I’d vote for him again and again, knowing this.)
The Vikings are not very good at this football thing. Any deal between the US and Canada must include the transfer of Minnesota (and their professional sports teams) and Michigan to our neighbor to the North. What a huge market for snow machines.
Say, is Canada self-sufficient in gasoline and diesel and other refined products? Cuz I don’t we are…
“Say, is Canada self-sufficient in gasoline and diesel and other refined products? Cuz I don’t we are…”
No, we’re not.
We COULD be self-sufficient, but our government won’t allow it.
Fred, we own the government so it is us who will not allow it. We can overrule the government any time we want, be we don’t want to do the work. Cowardice is the word.
“Cowardice is the word.”
So true VOWG. Liberal, Tory, same old story…
People who think we can live without coal, oil and gas are welcome to try. You can start by standing naked in a Sask wheat field right now. Then try and get food, clothing and shelter that did not require the use of those fuels. Your life will be short and painful.
“China is destabilizing the US and fentanyl is one arm of this hybrid warfare”
Canada and Mexico support China’s economy and political leadership. The pro-China globalist agenda ripped the industrial heart out of North America. China must be stopped. Trump tariffs threat is ALL about China. Trudeau, Biden, Obama, are traitors working on behalf of China to destabilize the US. China is the primary beneficiary of the Liberal/Democrat globalist agenda. North Americans are all overtaxed to help build up China. Chinese organized crime groups supplied from Canada & Mexico. TD bank fined $3 Billion for laundering Chinese fentanyl money. Large prison sentences won’t happen under Trudeau for possession of kilos of fentanyl. The port of Vancouver is the critical transshipment and production hub for fentanyl producers and money launderers working in alignment with Mexican cartels and Iranian-state-linked criminals. Securing the US northern and southern borders from China. Securing North America from China. Ditto in preventing China’s infiltration of Greenland.
https://www.thebureau.news/p/exclusive-the-us-government-fentanyl
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/news/6966e7ae-3dfa-445f-b570-69c6c72a882f