It’s not the flu.
He estimates the infection rate in China is aproximately 10 times what is being reported: 50,000 new cases a day, doubling every 5 days. The interval between infection and death is as long as 20 days, so the low death rate to date isn’t representative of lethality — most of those are still to come.
Shenzhen is now on lockdown.
— freezerohedge (@freezerohedge) February 7, 2020
How soon will it be that we don’t even want to open freight or a parcel, from China,,, for fear of catching the CoronaV ?
I’ve been thinking of buying some items for my ham station, but they’re made in China. I’m pushing off those orders until this whole thing is finished and even then I’m going to be quite cautious.
Meanwhile, here in Prinz Dummkopf’s domain, we’re supposed to be grateful that he’s in Africa as there’s no coronavirus there, right? In reality, he’s acting like Sir Robin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8IkbCeZ9to
Well, so far it seems like relatively healthy people who get appropriate medical care survive this Chinese thing, but cheer up, in Africa he might meet Ebola.
Chance encounter with Ebola in the offing?
Stay the hell out of Walmart until this thing blows over. Everything in there is made in China ….
I might add that a couple of hundred million fewer dog, cat, snake and bat eaters would be a positive for the planet. They would still have about 1.2 billion pointless carbon units to carry on the poisoning and pillaging of the world. Oh, and they eat Koala Bears too …. helping with the extinction.
Carl,
Look at the bright side. The colder winter temperatures in February and March will help preserve any virus inside the containers.
/ sarc
“50,000 new cases a day, doubling every 5 days”
So in 75 days 1.6 billion people will become infected?
And in 90 days 12.8 billion of the 7 billion people in the world will be infected.
The key is to stop infections from spreading!
QUARANTINE
CUT OFF TRAVEL
TRACK the infected and their contacts.
Find the infected inside your borders, and isolate them. It is much easier to isolate one person today than isolating him and the four other people he infected next week. Screw that up and it could be twenty-thirty people in two weeks time, or hundreds in a month.
This is the kind of thing Public Health Departments used to do with Venereal Diseases, until AIDS came along, and we sensitively decided that the stigma of being asked about your gay sexual contacts was worse than people dying of AIDS.
rd, with your scenario the global warming people should be elated beyond euphoria.
heyo rizzy:
infection rates are a function of those *not yet infected*.
plus other factors you are the type to ignore and refute and disclaim etc.
Two words. Spanish flu.
Four words. Protect yourself and yours. Lay in some food, water and other necessities. If you have to stay in 2 or 3 weeks, you are OK. Don’t go to Walmart. Don’t go get gas for your car. Don’t go out to a movie. If nothing happens and it blows over like y2k, you are still OK. Whatever, don’t expect diddly squat from your government, be they north or south of our borders. Be they federal, state/province, local, whatever. Most of them can’t find their rear with both hands and a road map.
Sortawitte; I remember a quote from a book or movie ” you could not find your ass hole with a mirror on a stick and a flashlight in broad daylight” so please cut the crap…does that sound familiar?????? does the feds seem to fit this profile?????…. Steve O
hi SDA.
Im the horse called plague.
there’s 4 of us.
Im looking behind me as the chinese ‘close the barn door’ on corona.
this is just a rehearsal (emphasis on HEARSe) for the big one.
it will play out in a similar fashion, lies, lies, lies and more lies by the authorities.
and away we go out the open barn door just like THIS time, the dry run live reHEARS[e]al.
Neil Ferguson:
EMERGING INFECTIONS
A major research interest throughout his career has been on developing mathematical models of the geographic spread of newly emergent pathogens – such as BSE/vCJD, foot and mouth disease, SARS and MERS, pandemic influenza, Ebola and ZIka – to examine containment and mitigation strategies. Building on earlier work, Professor Ferguson and colleagues founded the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling in 2008 to consolidate and enhance their work on emerging infections and its translation to public health policy-making.
https://www.londonntd.org/research/researchers/professor-neil-ferguson
He appears to be testing his model. The interview includes constant evocations of uncertainty.
I think the explanation for his estimate of large numbers is here:
There is a “wide range of severity of symptoms” SO people with very mild cases may not even seek health care and “if these people are transmitting” …
Regarding the 1918 Flu pandemic:
The figures are more like an estimated 500 million people infected worldwide, and a death toll of somewhere between 20 million to 50 million. Not a pleasant event by any stretch of the imagination, whatever the colossal numbers.
The degradation of general health in much of Europe after four years of war and the closely related reduced nutrition over those same years, may have also been a factor in the body count. During that war, a very high proportion of battlefield casualties were not from bombs and bullets, but from a multitude of diseases, including the sort of influenza that got my grandfather evacuated from the western Front to England before a bomb, bullet or bayonet got near him. He had previously survived his stint at Gallipoli. Those on the battlefield with lungs damaged by chlorine gas were especially susceptible to “other agencies”.
Bear in mind also, that in 1918, antibiotics had not yet been developed; not that antibiotics do much against a virus, BUT they do help fight the opportunistic bacterial infections that gain easy footholds in people debilitated by a virus. In the same time-frame, polio was killing and crippling children in particular, for decades into the future. Leprosy was still rampant in the Asia-Pacific region; and it has recently re-appeared in Asia..