Your Election Prediction Contest Thread (Bumped With Results)

2019 Federal Election 84 Comments

With the official mourning period drawing to a close, here are the results. The final seat tally (according to Global News):

LPC: 157
CPC: 121
NDP: 24
BQ: 32
GPC: 3
PPC: 0
Independent: 1

By my reckoning, the closest to come to an accurate prediction was “RL”

LPC:155
CPC:115
NDP:36
BQ:25
GPC:4
PPC:2
Independent:1

Congratulations and deepest sympathies, RL! A book will be out shortly.

Original post continues below.

338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority

You can review the seats held at dissolution here.

To earn your chance at a free book from the SDA Free Book Library, enter your 2019 election seat distribution prediction in the comments, in the following format.

LPC:
CPC:
NDP:
BQ:
GPC:
PPC:
Independent:

Please refrain from making additional commentary (or mucking up the format) — there will be an open thread provided for that. Contest closes Monday morning at 12:01am

84 Replies to “Your Election Prediction Contest Thread (Bumped With Results)”

  4. I heard a poll this jmorning, it was a repeat program from a Friday program. It went something like PC 31% Libs 29% NDP 14% greens 5-8% (forget the exact #).

    Hold on a minute, I thought, that doesn’t add up to 100%. Assuming ~1% goes eleswhere, does that mean PPC 15%?

    1. No because Bloc is not in that set either and they have about 40% of Quebec vote which is 25% of Canadian vote so therefore 10% on a national scale. Add in 2% for fringe parties and independents here and there, that leaves more like 3% left for the PPC (which sounds a bit high, I am saying 2.5% is the over-under, if we’re lucky).

  8. LPC: 128
    CPC: 126
    NDP: 29
    BQ: 48
    GPC: 5
    PPC: 0
    Independent: 2

    (Trudeau1 hangs on vs Stanfield scenario)

  17. Basically all parties which agree on big government, infantile leftism, globalism. political correctness: 337.

    Those against: 1(But only if Max wins).

  18. Some pretty good ones around the middle of the thread. I balanced errors in the CPC and NDP totals but otherwise had a good effort, some others are closer in total error though.

    But what about that earlier contest before the campaign? Some of those estimates will be pretty ugly now.

  19. I found the earlier thread in September with pre-campaign election predictions. Basically they are just about as close as the later set.

    The first set add up to a little under the total of 338 because I am using medians rather than means, which under-weights the higher outliers. For a more direct comparison, add 2 to the larger estimates and 1 to the two middle estimates (of the early set).

    That tendency is diminished in the later set because there were fewer outliers.
    Our forecasts actually lost skill for the Liberals from September to mid-October, went from somewhat too low to considerably too high for the NDP, stayed rather similarly too optimistic for the Cons, but improved for the Bloc and Greens, as well as the “Ind” which in the first of the two sets was not divided into PPC and Ind. … By the end of the campaign, the consensus was around two PPC and one independent, likely JWR, and even that proved optimistic for the PPC. Sadly. Well, it is what it is (a cluster ** of epic proportions).

    Party __ Sep ___ Oct ____ actual

    Lib ____ 144 ____ 123 ___ 157
    Con ___ 148 ____ 140 ___ 121
    NDP ____18 _____ 34 _____ 24
    Bloc ____12 _____ 34 _____ 32
    Grn _____ 6 ______ 4 ______ 3
    Ind _____ 4 _______3 ______ 1

    After adjusting the first set as mentioned, the total errors are 70 and 68, virtually no improvement in skill.
    It’s likely that the Liberal vote was underestimated by larger amounts towards the end because any rational person (overlapping with the universe of predictors) would imagine that a campaign like that witnessed would have to be losing ground. There is apparently no criterion other than the appearance of Michael Ignatieff that can repel Liberal voters in such predictable numbers. Justin’s take away? Even if I appear in blackface and campaign like I couldn’t care less whether I am elected or not, I will still do okay. So huh. This is easy work for me.

  20. The cons blew this with Scheer; Micky mouse could beat, the black face clown. We need a real leader, one that can speak for us and be positive. Nothing positive from Schear, Trudeau this and that, wont get you elected. His support for globalist agendas will only alienate his base supporter’s. There was a poll in Canada that we are far more right wing then the US, but we have no outlet anywhere to express or support it.

  21. I have long ago given up on seat projections, but I can tell you this much: the Tories are in power, but not in office, whereas the Liberals are in office, but not in power.

    The numbers we rolled in Western Canada and SW Ontario are huge (Karen Vecchio won by 14,000 votes in Elgin-Middlesex-London; disclosure: I am related to Karen).

    Nevertheless, we did not win a single seat on the West Coast (41% of the vote in B.C.), which is not exactly helpful, since we have to build the pipelines and associated infrastructure.

    Whether anybody likes it or not, the fact of the matter is very simple: the Liberals cannot hope to govern for much longer (June, 2020 election) without the support of the Tories. The rest of the clown-car show don’t mean J-S.

    Leadership change on our team? Fuggetaboutit! It’s over.

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