US Mid-Term Prediction Contest

Political Animal Pollspotting 69 Comments

All 435 seats are being contested in the House, while 35 in the Senate are up for grabs. Current seat distribution:

House (435)
235 Republican
193 Democrat
7 vacant

Senate (35)
24* Democrat
9* Republican
2 Independent

(*corrected, sorry!)

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to predict the outcome in both.

To make my job easier, please copy the structure provided above and edit accordingly, ensuring your numbers add up to 435 and 35 respectively.

Tie breaker: Predict the outcome of Menendez[D] vs Hugin[R] in New Jersey.

Winner (or winners) will receive their choice of a book from the SDA Free Book Library.

Related: Mid-term watch list.

Reference: Table of state, territorial, and federal results (Wikipedia)

No chatter on this thread, please. I’ll open a results watch thread later in the day.

69 Replies to “US Mid-Term Prediction Contest”

  1. House – 230 Republicans, 205 Democrat = 435

    Senate – 18 Democrat, 17 Republican = 35

  3. Senate: – 2 Independent, 9 Republican, 24 Democrats

    House: 224 Republican 211 Democrats

    Mendez Hold NJ

    1. You’re probably right about Menendez unfortunatley, a corrput unipartier if ever there was one.

  4. House (435)
    218 Republican
    217 Democrat
    0 vacant

    Senate (35)
    19 Democrat
    14 Republican
    2 Independent

    Yes, the GOP retains the House by 1 seat. Why not. It’s that close, and the polls tend to over sample Demos, but not by a YUGE degree. The senate is safely Elephant.

    Menendez keeps NJ, despite being a thoroughly corrupt, dishonest criminal scumbag. Just like his media fans.

  5. Political positions in the USA requiring name and office sought on a ballot and not requiring appointment by a Foreign Monarch,
    President and Vice President, Senators, Congressmen, Governors, Attorney Generals, Judges in all Courts except Federal Supreme, Tax Appraisers, Mayors, All executive positions at the State and County level etc etc.

    Political positions in Canada requiring name and office sought on a ballot and not by appointment of a Foreign Monarch,
    MP, MPP, Mayor, School Trustee etc etc.

    All Canadian political executives are subject to official appointment by the Ruling Class and the Queen of England. That is not even close to being democratic. True North strong and free my ass!

  6. House (435)
    225 Republican
    210 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    19 Democrat
    12 Republican
    2 Independent

    Menendez Holds NJ

  7. I am not going to put numbers down but I will say this:
    Get ready for a RED wave tonight…Big time.

    My favorite watch is not so much tonight but the coming days…Looking at all the meltdowns from the DNC and on CNN, MSNBC, CBC etc…

    Of course there will be windows broken by the Soros armies and various manufactured chaos and overblown reactions from the Morning Joes and Don Lemons but that will just reinforce the Trump movement for 2020.
    Bottom line is that if the democrats want to survive they will need to rebuild from the ground up or they risk having to compete for votes with a probable third party (A new CENTRE left one)…The current Democrat party is toxic to a vast majority of Americans who are centrists.
    Bernie Sanders was stolen the nomination in 2016 but he certainly took over the party in ideology. The problem with this is there are not enough adherents to win elections, not even close…Even if the msm project the illusion that they rule in numbers, they don`t.

  8. Senate (35)
    23 Democrat
    8 Republican
    2 Independent

    ????? 23+8+2=33

    Whats wrong? The Total(35) or the number of seats? Should there be (2) Vacant?

    Senate (35)
    23 Democrat
    8 Republican
    2 Independent
    2 Vacant?

  10. House (435)
    217 Republican
    218 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    20 Democrat
    13 Republican
    2 Independent

    Menendez wins NJ by 1 point

      1. There is a lot of pessimism about; I think you’ve been watching too much CBCNBCCBSCNNMSNBC

  12. House (435)
    230 Republican
    205 Democrat
    Senate (35)
    19 Democrat
    15 Republican
    1 Independent

  13. House (435)
    221 Republican
    214 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    18 Democrat
    15 Republican
    2 Independent

    Menendez LOSES – bigly

      1. Issa already said his district … ultra wealthy La Jolla … is lost. Californica will NEVER be a RED State … ever … again. The DemonRats have filled it with Mexicans who want free shit. They’ll never stop voting for free shit … and all the super wealthy white leftists feel guilty about their wealth … so they vote for DemonRats who will give-away other peoples money to the poor (not their money! … they have high priced accountants to shelter their wealth from taxes). Taxes are for middle class suckers to pay.

  15. Ok then with 35 Senate seats
    House (435)
    225 Republican
    210 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    19 Democrat
    14 Republican
    2 Independent

    Menendez Holds NJ

  16. House (435)
    203 Republican
    232 Democrat
    0 vacant

    Senate (35)
    26 Democrat
    7 Republican
    2 Independent

  17. House (435)
    235 Republican
    200 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    20 Democrat
    15 Republican

    Tie breaker: Hugin [R] takes New Jersey by 5 points

  20. House (435)
    226 Republican
    209 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    19 Democrat
    14 Republican
    2 Independent

    Menendez

  21. House (435)
    285 Republican
    150 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    11 Democrat
    24 Republican
    including Hugin in NJ

  22. House (435)
    242 Republican
    193 Democrat
    0 vacant

    Senate (35)
    22 Democrat
    11 Republican
    2 Independent

    Menendez wins after a recount includes the 1145 ballots found in the trunk of an election official’s car which gives him a 350-vote margin.

  24. House (435)
    220 Republican
    215 Democrat
    0 vacant

    Senate (35)
    20 Democrat
    13 Republican
    2 Independent

    Menendez by 4%

    Redone in the format you requested.

  25. House (435)
    240 Republican
    195 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    23 Democrat
    10 Republican
    2 Independent

    Mendez Loses in NJ

  30. House (435)
    224 Republican
    211 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    20 Democrat
    13 Republican
    2 Independent

    Menendez

  31. House (435) – 235 Republican; 200 Democrat

    Senate (35) – 24 Democrat; 9 Republican; 2 Independent

  32. What baffles me is the Dementocrats are not running on any platform or policy, just Trump hatred. This must be visible to independents.

  35. House:
    Rep 225
    Dem 210

    Senate:
    (Sanders & King counted as the Dems they are)
    Rep 17
    Dem 18
    Everywhere I go the natives are restless. And can’t figure out why so many hate Trump.

  38. House: Putin: 235 China 200
    Senate: Putin: 20 China 15
    tie-breaker: court battle for years

    The Chinese will get involved in this election to counter the Russians. There’s a whole lot of hackin’ goin’ on today folks.

  39. I have no idea – but hope we’ll see a massive red wave:

    House (435)
    265 Republican
    170 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    14 Democrat
    20 Republican
    1 Independent

    Menendez loses.

  40. House: GOP 237, DeMarxists 198.
    Senate: GOP 55, Demarxists, 44, Bernie the Socialist 1 (end result)

    Menendez loses.

  42. Senate
    Dem 21
    Rep 14
    ———-
    total 35

    House
    Dem 213
    Rep 222
    ————
    total 435

    Menendez wins NJ by 2% margin

  43. I’ll give it a go.

    House (435)
    219 Republican
    216 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    45 Democrat
    54 Republican
    1 Independent

  45. Shamrock addendum: to get my predicted results, tonight will be:
    Dems 21 (-3)
    GOP 13 (+4)
    Independent 1 (-1 to GOP)

    So, as I mentioned the Senate will end up after tonight:
    GOP 55; DeMarxists 44, Independent Communist Lover Bernie 1.

    I can’t wait for the accusations of “Whitelash 2.” It amazes me how these fascists think they can alienate half the American population and still win elections. We shall see, but the people and only the people can put a stop to these totalitarians.

  46. House 225 R (-10)
    203 D
    07
    I actually hope the Dems take the House making 2020 a blood bath… Existing Republicans where dysfunctional

    Senate 16 R (+7)
    17 D
    02

    NJ will dump the clown Menendez in the Meadowlands Land Fill

  48. House (435)
    250 Republican
    185 Democrat

    Senate (35)
    14* Democrat
    18* Republican
    3 Independent

  49. House (435)
    241 Republican
    189 Democrat
    5 vacant

    Senate (35)
    12 Democrat
    21 Republican
    2 Independent

  50. I’ll be the contrarian. Expect the Democrats and their Chinese business partners to redouble their efforts to rig the vote their way.

    Based on PredictIt probabilities and a few back of the envelope calculations of my own:

    House Dem 224, GOP 211
    Senate GOP 52, Dem 48

      1. PredictIt rates the chance of Republicans holding the House at one-third.

        That chance is the chance that our patriotic American friends give the GOP a fraud-proof majority.

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