People walking by the apartment at the time had no idea that four stories above them some of the most important work in applied mathematics was tilting the scales of a global conflict as secret agents of the United States armed forces, arithmetical soldiers, engaged in statistical combat. Nor could people today know as they open umbrellas and twist heels on cigarettes, that nearby, in an apartment overlooking Morningside Heights, one of those soldiers once effortlessly prevented the United States military from doing something incredibly stupid, something that could have changed the flags now flying in capitals around the world had he not caught it, something you do every day.
A great read. h/t Adrian
@Kate: Your missing a ending double quote mark to close the [a href] tag.
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the / can’t help either.
The link for those interested:
http://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23/survivorship-bias
Link works fine,if you are looking to read complete BS. The most glaring? The B-24 was NOT shot down,it was bombed by one of its own.So you are telling me that some idjit politico could not figure out why a bomber dropping its load from 20K feet might hit some other bombers at 15K feet?
I know.Let’s put 20 guys on the left side of the road,and 20 on the right,and have them shoot at the enemy in the middle of the road!
The only thing this proves is what happens when you put desk jockey “pilots”,or so called “groud commanders” in charge of anything other then potty training. Oh. And the piece was written by a socialist. Says it all.And the real sorry part is,some of us keep electing these idjits.
Not sure what article Justthinkin just read, but the article linked here was definitely an excellent read about survivor bias. Thanks for that!
Justthinkin’:
I think you are mistaken, the bombs which SEEM to be falling from above the B24 are from other bombers further away at the same elevation, but the view is from above the plane.
The point of the story is not in the video anyway and the rest of your comments are totally nonsensical.
I’m sure you’ve all heard the gun control ‘argument’ that a study proved you are 43 times more likely to be killed by a firearm in the house than to use it to protect yourself? That was a classic case of non-survivor bias. They did their “research” based on morgue statistics. Funny how they never did come across anybody who didn’t die from a gunshot wound in their study.
Link works fine…
Yes about 30+ mins later the code was fixed… You were just late to the game.
As to the link (which I figured out from looking at source before it was fix) at first started as a good read and then seemed to go off the rails for me and into tl;dr further territory and soon lost all relevance?
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Excellent insight in the article.
Even if it gets you to think about how you view the world and make your decisions, it is worth it.
On building a better light bulb…it is said:
“I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.”
― Thomas A. Edison
The trouble with modern society is that is eschews failure and celebrates only success. Of course the well grounded person recognizes that analyzing failure can be invaluable in future success.
The proposition that you should be afraid to fail is just so much nonsense; how will you ever know that you learned anything? Further, there is never just “The Authorized Method” of solution to every problem. That would be anathema to the so called ‘creative thought’ processes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HSxtvdywjU
EPIC Fail – CREATIVE COMMONS FAILS VIDEO
Cheers
Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
In other words, it’s not what you know that should be of greatest concern…it’s what you don’t know.
Kind of reminds me of this line that was floating around in my military days:
QUOTE FROM A RUSSIAN DOCUMENT
“One of the serious problems in planning against Canadian doctrine is that the Canadians do not read their manuals nor do they feel any obligations to follow their doctrine”.
Firesign Theatre…
“Everything you know is wrong”
A great read, indeed. I certainly would have made the error about positioning the additional armor. Thank you, Adrian!
That article was a great read. It included several elements identified in a book I recently read titled, “The Drunkard’s Walk — How Randomness Rules our Lives”. The essential lesson was that persistence pays provided one can ride out the failures without taking excessive damage. Back up plans are always good when undertaking a new endeavor, and as I tell my trainees, hope isn’t a plan.
I am involved in a high-tech start-up which may or may not suceed. However, I use my previous FAILURES as a guide.
Whoddathunk Justin “Just Thinking, Barely” Trudeau was lurking on this site?
Excellent read!! To paraphrase Winston Churchill, “success is lurching from failure to failure repeatedly without losing enthusiasm.”
Heh, how clever a person does it take to figure out to armor the vital areas of an aircraft? A made up story.
The military might do some stupid things, but they aren’t that stupid.
strad
U trying to out STUPID juststickin?????
try reading up on the military yesteryears were they would pay $400 for a ten buck item
Heh. Must be over the target,as the flak is thick. And Robert,if you think I am a Turdeau fan,well,you being from Morontario(Ottawa) says it all.