Forget the Coyneses and the Wellses and the rest of the preening political pundocracy. I’m going to nominate Skippy’s “last letter home” as the best thing you’ll read all week.
If the NDP displaces the Liberals as the Official Opposition, or even comes close to it, the Liberals are effectively finished. If Ignatieff winds up losing seats, especially in Toronto, he’ll be beheaded by his own party on election night next Monday, which leaves the Grits leaderless and in the throes of a leadership campaign.
Assuming that there even is a Conservative minority (which is getting harder to do every day,) defeating them on a confidence motion would require the Governor General to decide whether to invite a coalition or an accord to assume government or to hold yet another election. That would require some kind of assurance that said coalition could hold for at least two years. I don’t know how a leaderless Liberal Party can make such an assurance to David Johnston.
There are also large swaths of the Liberal Party that want nothing to do with the NDP, and that segment of the party can be expected to run for the leadership. Or there might be sufficient opposition in caucus to defeat the idea outright.
Barring a coalition or an accord, another election would utterly break a bankrupt Liberal Party and English Canada would be divided up between the NDP and the Tories, almost certainly resulting in a massive Conservative majority.
After spending weeks asking the question, no one has been able to tell me why Jack Layton would even want to get into bed with the Grits. As I’ve explained before, it isn’t in his strategic interest. Harper’s fear-mongering about a coalition is adorable, but it assumes that Layton is stupid enough to still be afraid of the Liberals at this point. He pretty clearly isn’t, and seems to know that if he just waits a few months, the Grits will collapse all on their own, leaving him as the only credible alternative to the Tories.
Regardless of Monday’s outcome, the Liberals won’t be able to raise money (which is already a giant problem for them) or recruit halfway serious candidates (which they haven’t focused all that much energy on anyway.) By Tuesday morning, anyone with any brains will see the future of the left in this country, and it isn’t going to include the Liberals.
But read the whole thing. (h/t Lord of the Fleas)
I pray that the Conservatives know what they’re doing and come out with a majority on Monday, but until then, it’s gut-check time here in Alberta. Any Premier-hopeful that wants my vote in the next provincial election had best stand up now and state his or her intentions of protecting this great province from any and all socialist incursions from Ottawa. (Are you listening, Danielle Smith?)
Alberta Girl,
He campaigned on, and governed his first mandate, by cutting taxes and exploding spending. that’s what he promised to do before he was prime minister, and that’s percisely what he did. And he did so in a year (2006) when there was no Liberal leader.
And he did that after seeing exactly what those policies created in the United States. Too many Tories and Republicans saw what they wanted to see as opposed to what was actually in the platforms. I will say one thing in defense of Harper and Bush, they weren’t lying. Ther supporters just thought they were.
As to your point about elections, they are always about power. “Good government,” assuming that such a thing even exists, is incidental.
Iggy to be dumped for contempt of the Liberal party
Rae to take over and summit to Taliban Jack
“What everyone is missing here is that Jack morchestrated this quite a while ago”
You appear to be right about that Antenor!
Skippy – you and I will NEVER agree – believe what you want, you are entitled to that – we are, at this point, still a free country.
After Monday’s vote, we might not be.
And lost in all this “media” arousal for Layton is the fact that the TSE is dropping, go to the stock sentiments and see the outlook if this phoney makes any headway. It is business people, business runs every aspect of our existence. If you want feel good NDPEE policies, go live in a daycare, If you want JOBS, a chance to “start a business” etc along with a low corporate tax rate, well Harper has delivered. This MSM media in this country are decietful despicable people who care not a minute for your children or you. They care only about slagging a good an HONEST man, and stopping him from a majority and getting down to work. Imagine Jack herding that bunch of Turkeys with only one wing, into our House of Commons, how embarrassing that would be for Canada to have these court jesters jumping around our parliment! Vote Harper.
Byers on the NDP. Jack as PM…..
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/27/cv-election-vp-byers.html
And the converse Bartinsky: we will see a boost for the TSE and a big increase in business investments in Canada from a majority Conservative decision.
With the high % of un-decided has anyone given a thought to how STUPID Canada will look with a Conservative majority and the Bloc as the opposion?????
The very first comment was the most interesting for me. Some Liberals may well decide that Canada is worth saving and cross to the Conservatives in order to prevent a looming economic gulag from occurring under a Marxist led coalition.
My greatest point of entertainment will be all the newly homeless liberals (especially in Toronto) who will loathe to go conservative but are too uppity to rub against the rabble and the unions that infest the NDP.
The CBC will have to sponsor counseling sessions during it’s daytime programming to quell the sobbing and wailing.
Scot Reid will have to crank up his popcorn machine because this movie is going to be long one … at least a two bagger.
The cynic in me says … if the commies wind up running the show … well … I am old and if they want to increase my pension, I will take the money. I have no kids so who cares who pays the bill later on. However, I have a sense of what is right, so I hope something better comes out of all this.
No matter what happens … we always get what we deserve. Air-heads of he left call it karma and think someone magically is keeping score, I call it reality and it is not always fair, but who said life has to be fair … other than delusional Marxists.
“Equality of Outcome”, here we come…..”Equality of Opportunity” be damned…….
Sure, the Grits and the Dippers are going to tax and spend, but I don’t see that as being any different than borrowing and spending.
The difference is that the repayment of borrowing is spread over the entire tax base while the taxing will target the engines of our economy in a deleterious way.
The effect on jobs will be devastating.
hint: Greens garnered a million votes last election and landed exactly zero seats in parliament. there is something distinctly UNdemocratic about that.
Not at all.
A million votes spread over a country 3000 miles across that touches on 3 oceans is not going to be representative democracy if they get proportional seats.
How does giving the Greens 10 seats give people in any specific ridings a representative to speak to their needs in parliament if no single riding elected any of them?
If the Liberals implode to the degree that the polls are predicting, the question that will be answered is, “to what degree was the Liberal party center/left?” It seems to me that the larger the center is in that question the more likely Canada will get a CPC majority. If the left part of that question is the dominant quadrant, we will see a minority government with the very real possibility of a coalition and little chance of bringing it back to the electorate for a considerable length of time. People like Ping assume that all of the liberal voters are misguided supporters of the NDP. I do not believe this to be the case. The liberals that I know are not hardened socialist in cahoots with organized labor; they are soft hearted, really want to find a way to make the country better through some income redistribution (heavy on the word some). They support progressivity in the tax system and Keynsian economics because it finances this core belief. If these people can put aside the media created demonization of Harper and look at the actual performance of the CPC over the past five years, I think they find themselves in sync with the CPC more than the NDP. Regardless of the rationalization as to why the CPC has behaved economically, the reality is that they have put in place policies that support this underlying “soft socialism” in order to attract this segment. The rubber now meets the road in the next five days. How will the disenfranchised liberal mark the ballot in the privacy of the voting booth? Do they vote from a pissed off perspective and support the NDP because Harper is evil or do they put emotions aside and vote for the CPC whose policies and programs have support their core beliefs?
If I had registered guns, I’d be very worried right now. Taliban Jack and his band of idiots will be coming for them.
By the way,skippy, you’re included in the band of idiots. See how you feel in a year or so when unemployement reaches double digits, assuming you actually have a job.
The lunacy of the left knows no bounds. Get ready for the rape of the West.
I have to agree with at least one thing skippy says. For whatever reason Harper grew the civil service numbers and that is bad.
Layton’s ultimate aim is to make Canada into a clone of the European socialist states and have the unions control the government.
The Conservatives need to quite snoozing and light a fire now as the campaign is drawing to a close to offset Layton.
bartinsky, court jesters is right. Just picture Libby Davis as a cabinet minister.
Vote Harper on Monday!
“For whatever reason Harper grew the civil service numbers …”
Pleasing your enemies doesn’t turn them into friends.
Harper will be PM for the foreseable future in minority or majority. No way the Grits play second fiddle to an NDP government, it will hasten their irrelevancy and destruction.
Consider the Grits will be leaderless after May 2, and be in no position to fight another election right away. Harper will be able to call on the support of the Grits to maintain his minority government if that happens.
Harper is looking good for majority if three things happen:
– polls really wrong (think Toronto election)
– they get their vote out
– voters retrench their NDP parked vote elsewhere (NDP can only hurt Tories on Vancouver mainland)
Pleasing your enemies doesn’t turn them into friends.
Voting for your enemies certainly doesn’t turn them into your friends either.
This is how Ontario got screwed over by Bob Rae and how our province was permanently damaged.
Lets not do the same thing to our country.
Nobodies happy PM Steve has increased the size of government and spending other than statists. Steve hasn’t been the Reagan we were all hoping for but then he wouldn’t be leading our country or winning his 3rd election in 7 years if he had recited Reagan/Goldwater speeches at any time would he?
What would be the size of our government and debt if the Liberals or Dips were running the show 3 years ago?
Voting for dedicated, proud, self identifying statists will never, NEVER make a smaller government or less spending.
“I’m voting NDP”
Skip, “NDP IS, what NDP DOES.”
@Maz2
I checked out your G&M Conservative endorsement link.
A bit of warning to anyone who decides to check the comments: Put your rain gear on, it’s raining brain parts with all the heads exploding there!
Sun News has done in 2 weeks what nobody could do in 100 years. Is it more than co-incidence that the Liberal demise started about the same day Sun News took to the airwaves.
Is Bob Rae actually a Liberal or did he get himself embedded into the Liberal party. Maybe he is working from the inside to bring the Liberals down.
So far the press hasn’t turned on this orange revolution. This is a train wreck. Sure yeah it could result in a CPC majority but if not than the “majority or bust” campaign just took on a whole new meaning. Remember we have 3 days at this point and one of those days is royal wedding day so that leaves 2. If you vote NDP at this point and you are a conservative I don’t know what to say. I really don’t.
Bring back KYOTO!!!
Not the treaty.
The dog.
Bring back Dion’s dog.
While they are digging up Chretien and Martin and parading them around they might as well drag that flea bitten mutt out of retirement as well.
Strategic voting means a party the voter doesn’t really want gets $1.95 for each strategic vote.
Seems to be a bad tactic if a lot of people practice it and of course it’s not going to work if a lot of people don’t practice it.
Best to vote for the party that represents more of your interests than any other or you may find the party representing most of your interests interested in acting more like the party you voted for.
@Bartinsky 3:08 PM
Your analogy reminded me of my favourite political nick-name of all time:
“Premature JackLayton” (say it fast)
Seen on a blog CPC friendly blog (Sorry I can’t recall more specifically) a long time ago (I’m guessing 2005)- oh how I wish I could take credit for this one…
Campaigns of the Apocalypse:
“THE FRANKENSTEIN COALITION”
Fear is a useful emotion, in small measure, it keeps you alive and on safe trajectory.
As voters ponder the full ramifications of a NDP led coalition from a fiscal point of view they may see a dampening of enthusiasm for those provinces who have already experience NDP ‘economics’…
I’m sure PMSH will come out with a “barn burner” speech before voting day arrives.
Cheers
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
Finally! Some unity in Canadian politics.
It seems there IS one thing the Left and the Right in Canada can agree on: a strong distaste for the Liberals.
Ward @ 2:20am nails !
Hopefully Eastern Canada does put the Orange Pumpkin Heads and Jack Lenin in the PM’s seat. And when he opens the Constitution to pay off Quebec, it is not going to go his way or Eastern Canada’s way either. The New West has demands as well. No more Official Bilingualism or Multicult. No more Equalization. A real EEE Senate. Full Provincial Control of all judges within each Province. Only 1 Supreme Court Judge selected by each Province no more appointments. A directly elected Head of State the GG. A directly elected Lt. Gov. controlled by each Province. And Equal Representation for each Province. So yes lets get the Orange Pumpkin Heads in the Drivers seat and lets open the Constitution. Also if the Pumpkin Heads think they will rob Alberta, we will shut off the TAP.
re: Kate@8:44
“There’s another problem with an NDP led coalition that hasn’t been mentioned – the lack of NDP MP’s with experience governing.” Lack of experience hasn’t slowed ol’bambam down in the US.
Skippy does make some valid points but he definitely has a hate on for PM Harper. Considering he ran a minority government, Canada still managed to do the best of the G-8 economically. I’d really like to see what they can do with a majority.
As for a coalition, I think Jacko and Gilles could go to town bringing socialism to Canada and Quebec(especially since they are the first in line for handouts anyway). They would certainly make a case for putting your money off shore.
Skippy is a spoiled brat in a grocery store in a tantrum, screaming, jumping up and down and doing what he can to disrupt everyone in sight because his mommy wouldn’t buy him any num nums. And now that he sees his mother heading for the checkout he’s planning to kick her in the shins.
Good plan Skippy.
Brian MAllard:
Well put. The LPC has moved very much to the left in the past few years – largely as a sympton of their steady retreat into the hyper urban areas of canada. IOW their caucus has steadily as a group become more left-leaning and that has made the PArty more left leaning. But the result of that is what we are now seeing: the NDP-lite policies and the disconnect of those policies from their leader who ladles out bile while Jack!! ladles out HOPEY-changey (in an increasingly eerie rip-off of Obamaism)leaves those on the left in the LPC to choose the real NDP. (in quebec the phenomenon is similar for LPC voters – the BQ to ND stampede has different causes).
However I think when you look at the the finer grain – as best you can under the circumstances of lousy canadian polling services – the CPC is going to benefit – likely with a majority. I think it’s a reasonable assumption that the ND will get 5% less than they are polling and that the CPC will get 3% more (historically that has long been the case). Going riding by riding the ND will finish second rather than third in a huge number of ridings – but in QC that will mean seats changing hands between the BQ and LP – some going i opposite directions and maybe – maybe a few seats for the ND. In Ontario and Atlantic canada s going from the LPC to the ND = more seats for the CPC and a few more for the ND.
In western Canada the CPC is growing in support while the ND is losing it. That means a few more for the CPC as well as a couple LPC riding going to the ND and maybe two to the ND from the CPC.
Thus we most likely will see a CPC majority (possibly a very big one) with a 30% drop in LPC seats (MAX) – ditto for the BQ and the NDP having nearly but not as many seats as the LPC.
Thus the LPC will remain the OLO and have the opportunity to resurrect itself. If they decide to return to the meme as you oulined it – a winning meme of the past – they could one day be the country’s ruling party. I just dont see the leadership of that party ebing that enlightened
If the NDP Orange Pumpkin Heads led by Jack Lenin actually do end up in charge in Ottawa, I would like you to be my voice here in Alberta. If Jack wants to open the Constitution, then he has to open it to all Canadians. Here is my list of demands as an Albertan. I want an end to Official Bilingualism and Multiculturalism. I want an end to Equalization. I want a true EEE Senate. I want Alberta to control all Judges in Alberta, no more Ottawa appointments. I want each Province to provide 1 Judge to the Supreme Court no more Ottawa appointed Supreme Court Judges. I want a directly elected Head of State the GG. I want a directly elected Alberta Head of State the Lt. Gov. I want true Property Rights entrenched in the National Constitution. I want all Federal Duplication of Provincial Services ended. No more Federal interference in any and all areas of Provincial Jurisdiction. And I want Equal Representation in all areas of Canada, averaged on the Quebec model which is roughly 1:1, 1 person 1 vote per 100,000 citizens in each Province. This will mean less MP’s for Atlantic Canada and more for the West in order to obtain this fair and equal balance. This is just a short list as a beginning,
If Jack wants to open the Constitution, then he has to open it to all Canadians. Here is my list of demands as an Albertan.
It takes unanimous consent of the First Ministers to change the constitution and it would be political suicide for any Alberta Premier to even take part in the process if the CPC got the most votes of any single party(and swept Alberta as usual) and was then usurped by the Bloc Coalition.
If by any chance T. Jack became PM, and the Dippers had ministers in charge of say some of Foreign Affairs, Defence and Public Safety, can you imagine the reductions in, and cut off of in some cases of, defence–and esp. intelligence–exchanges by our closest allies? Not to mention the security problems for Canadian organizations.
These considerations would also obtain if the NDP occupied some such offices under a coalition with a Liberal PM.
Mark
Ottawa
Also, think of the benefit of having the soon to be -recent convert to the NDP- Elizabeth May as Environment Minister. (sarc)
Hooray for Jack. He will increase our pensions. Good for Jack (“I’m a fighter”). He will make sure that everyone has a doctor. Rally around Jack. He won’t give tax breaks to big banks and oil companies.
Well, how is Jack going to pay for these promises? Don’t even bother trying to debate this question with die-hard socialists. They have had their brains saturated with dogma for so many years that they are, to put it quite bluntly, stupid. The answer will inevitably be “What’s the problem. It’s all free. The government pays for it.”
“Skippy is a spoiled brat in a grocery store in a tantrum,”
Sure enough. Not quite sure what satisfaction one derives from this type of voting – Harper may have disappointed in many ways, but he’s not Jack Layton. There is a difference, albeit apparently too subtle for some.
How’s he going to increase our pensions when the market tanks because he might pull off a coalition government, most of us are dependant on a stable market or we’ll lose our pensions.
We have all questioned where Iggulas finances have come from, but where is JackuLaytons finances coming from? Avazz, Move On, what Soros group is behind this media hard-on for Jack. Will his Ottawa barmaid from Quebec become Minister of Entertainment? Will angry Mulclair become minister of Angry Faces? Will Pat Martin capture the coveted NDPEE Ministry of Really Angry Faces? Will Libby slide into the Ministry of Transgender neutered bifocaled one legged ESL Nigerian Princes, or will Jack appoint Linda Duncan to the very envied Minister of Shutting Down the EEEvil Tarrrrsands? Minister of Silly Walks, well no contest there, forget God save the Queen, Canadians, God save Canada if our MSM’s wet dream ever came true!
Gord Tulk:
Very thoughtful commentary, thank you. I have a few friends of mine who are still on the fence, but they are leaning to vote Conservative. They are normally Liberal voters, but they’re witnessing its inevitable destruction. They simply can’t support a man like Ignatieff, and they didn’t support Dion either, and Layton turns their stomachs.
A Conservative majority will be decided by people like these who are leaning, but not fully committed.
“How’s he going to increase our pensions when the market tanks”
Excellent point. However, how many socialists realize that pension growth is based on market performance? I would hazard a guess that most think that pensions are guaranteed to produce a monthly cheque come hell or high water.
This is what someone on twitter has pulled from the three day nanos rolling average. Today’s nanos would be C 32.8%; L 17.2%; N 39.8%. That’s some scary stuff right there folks.
Actually James I am wondering if those polls turn out to be false can we sue Liberal media for our financial loses in the stock market? Because Liberal Media is messing around with real live investors who live outside the Ottawa/Tarran bubble.
james, don’t worry, the MSM is messing with U head.
I don’t worry so much about those ‘percentage of population’ because of our First Past the Post system. Had we Proportional Representation I’d be very concerned today.
IMO the Progressives are all playing with the same chips. The rise in the NDP numbers in Quebec could actually help the Liberals and the Conservatives in Quebec as the far Left Progressives would now be splitting their votes. Quebecers in the past have been very savvy voters but this time voting for NDP will likely bit them in the arse and produce a few CPC or Liberal seats where a few weeks ago they were not competitive.
Also, the Dippers do not have the necessary ground game to get the vote out in Quebec. Voter apathy and a motivated right, along with vote splitting will yield the CPC the majority they’ve worked for.
Add in the likely Liberal defections to the CPC and I predict a CPC majority is eminent. And I’m very happy about this.
Indiana Homez,
Your comment makes me feel so much better. I was so worried that these numbers are going to translate into a NDP minority. That would simply be terrifying and a disaster.
I’ll be happy with a slim CP majority.
An NDP minority/majority government would be an unfettered disaster.
If you are in a competitive riding hold one nostril and vote for the ‘Conservative’ party.
If the Liberal is the main threat to the NDP, hold two nostrils and pull the lever for them.
If it is clear your riding is totally a foregone conclusion, vote your consicence and vote Christian Heritage or Libertarian(whatever your leanings).
“For whatever reason Harper grew the civil service numbers …”
Pleasing your enemies doesn’t turn them into friends.
Posted by: Kate at April 28, 2011 10:54 AM
Conservatives have never learned this simple lesson even though Kate has had it on her header for years! Red Ed (Alta) and Yukon’s turn coat dipper (he changed parties but not philosophies ) Premier are examples of the failure of most Conservatives’ ability to identify wolves in sheep skins. In the Yukon and in Alta, cowardly people who had run as Conservatives backed the dark side (to keep their jobs and power); thus betraying the citizens who had elected them; and their own values. Such people become empty vessels (hollow men/women) not fit for public office because they are not trustworthy. Traitors are the scourge of success – the Conservatives need to check more credentials!
That said, jumping jack in the box, the flailing Icky, the snake like Ducippe and the bovine E. May are all one. There is no difference! Jack is no different from Jill, Gill and Lizzy dizzy. They all want to go up the parliament hill and fetch a pail of cash for themselves and for their nefarious agenda for absolute power in the World Government Plan, as explained by Mr. Moncton re: the hopinhagin/globull warming thingie. The Troika back the enemies of Israel – says it all to me.
I am a’ hoping and a’ praying for a CPC majority under the decent good man, PMSH, who I have been so proud to call my Prime Minister for the past five years. PMSH has kept our beautiful nation and Canadian citizens from the brink of no return Bolshevik state slavery. With enemies everywhere (some even in the Conservative Party ranks), PMSH has maintained the course and steered us clear of the economic disaster that would have certainly been the result if the Liberano/Dipper/Blochead troika had been in charge; the troika would have jumped aboard the Obahama ship of fools and taken us down into the dark deep that is the real hope and plan of the Troika. The Troika want Canada to fail because their agenda demands economic failure to foster the success of their real plan (state slavery of citizens).
Like Obahama, the Troika has not hidden their agenda, the media has sold the unhidden agenda of these Bolsheviks as something that would ‘give’ all citizens everything at no cost! The real cost of the Troika agenda is every citizens’ soul. We must not allow this to happen – please everyone volunteer to be a scrutineer on election day – EC Canada is not on our side, they will be less likely to try to pull fast ones if they are supervised.
Quote OZ “If Jack wants to open the Constitution, then he has to open it to all Canadians. Here is my list of demands as an Albertan.
It takes unanimous consent of the First Ministers to change the constitution and it would be political suicide for any Alberta Premier to even take part in the process if the CPC got the most votes of any single party(and swept Alberta as usual) and was then usurped by the Bloc Coalition.” What are you smoking OZ. It would be political suicide in Alberta for our Premier Not To Defend Alberta’s Rights if the NDP and Jack Lwenin open the Constitution to appease Quebec. We will have a list of demands and you can take that to the Bank. It will be the perfect time to dump Trudeau’s HorseSh*t and have a real made in Canada Constitution. One that was never Ratified by Canadians but forced upon us by Cretin and Trudeau. We welcome the chance to rebalance the Confederation. We will bargain hard the list is long.
“It would be political suicide in Alberta for our Premier Not To Defend Alberta’s Rights ”
Well, if it’s Special Ed, he won’t really care one way or the other, since he’ll be deserting the sinking Tory ship. He’ll put out some strongly worded statement and sound offended, but he won’t really give a crap.