Hide the decline!
Mike’s “nature trick”
[T]he Team had a problem: actual reconstructions “diverge” from the instrumental series in the last part of 20th century. For instance, in the original hockey stick (ending 1980) the last 30-40 years of data points slightly downwards. In order to smooth those time series one needs to “pad” the series beyond the end time, and no matter what method one uses, this leads to a smoothed graph pointing downwards in the end whereas the smoothed instrumental series is pointing upwards — a divergence. So Mann’s solution was to use the instrumental record for padding, which changes the smoothed series to point upwards as clearly seen in UC’s figure (violet original, green without “Mike’s Nature trick”).
But read the whole thing.
Examiner.com
As embarrassing as the e-mails are, some of the documents are more embarrassing. They include a five-page PDF document titled The Rules of the Game, that appears to be a primer for propagating the AGW message to the average subject/resident of the United Kingdom. The document suggests that it is a precis of a longer document housed at the Web site of the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.
More. The Sound Of Mature Science …
via James M.
I’m a skeptic. If I were an apostle, I would have been Doubting Thomas. Also, I’ve spent the last 24 hours studying this situation we are now discussing. And, certainly, there’s lots of over-interpreting of partial data going on; it is the way of the commons. That said, what strikes me about the whole situation is that it seems to fairly clearly show that the allegedly implicated co-conspirators were actually trying to achieve a political result they wanted, rather than trying to scientifically determine what is true. Since they claim to be scientists, not politicians, that is not acceptable. Their cover is blown. Now they can be clearly seen to be politicians.
do we know who hacked into the data bank? who leaked it?
any chance they’re going to fall out a window high up a U.N. occupied building?
There are lies,
there are damned lies;
and then there are statistics.
These characters were clearly not doing science, but instead of letting the numbers speak for themselves, they decided to massage the numbers, as Vit points out, TO ACHIEVE A POLITICAL END.
The whole purpose of peer review is to honestly let the numbers speak for themselves. The numbers were not giving them the “natural” result, so they decided to “goose” the result.
Hence the reluctance to share original data sets.
This is commonly known as tailoring data to ‘fit the theory’.
In contrast, most normal scientists, even with academic pride at wanting to be the winning horse, are smart enough not to ‘salt the hole’ Bre-X style. Rather most decent scientists don’t collude through various emails to sideline views that aren’t supportive of their own particular view.
The idea is to test the falsifiability of the theory not to coerce the theory into acceptance.
Trying to circumlocute peer review, through various emails, calls the studies into question as opposed to testing their rigour.
Cheers
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
Does this mean that DaveGore/AlSuziki will have to return his No-Bell prize and million$? And how ’bout that 350 million pounds he’s leached outta the Church of England?
AND how long before the dunce’n’Dolt brigade of MSM enablers start to cover this story? In depth?
hoooo – H A H !!
cg,
No, the person’s identity is not known. We do know that CRU web server was switched to a mirror site and everyone who works there had their passwords changed. Sort like locking the door after the burglary. I get the feeling that this was a inside job / whistle blower who made the leak look like a hack. Who ever did this compromised their file server system and the email system at CRU. Emails are not normally stored as neat little text files so they must have the entire email database and extracted only a partial sample. The posting on a Russian open FTP site was a nice touch as we all know how clever those Russian hackers are.
With a 16 GB flash drive going for $35, and a 1 TB portable hard drive for less than $100, copying the entire CRU fileserver / email server would not be out of the question.
With bag of popcorn and Coke in hand I wait with bated breath for the implosion. OOOOOOOOOOHHHHHH AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH.
Best of lines.
We all thought that AGW was man made and now thanks to this leak we know which men made it.
“do we know who hacked into the data bank? who leaked it?”
We don’t. They do though. I’m sure they know exactly who did this. I’m sure the lawyers are talking right now.
Can’t help but think that the data and code is in this archive for a reason.
Wow, this is cove-up is something that 60 Minutes will want to cover……………………….won’t they?
gord: “I’m sure they know exactly who did this. I’m sure the lawyers are talking right now.”
I kinda hope they do know. If the person goes public, I’m thinking he could become an “instant millionaire” with donations … might encourage others to do the same.
Political science … hiding the truth and creating divisions in societies for 150 years.
Kick the bums out. Defund them.
13.5 billion pounds this thief stole from the British taxpayers with his lies?
If the average person in Britain is not totally outraged by this, then there’s no hope for a once-proud peoples.
The good ship AGW just took a few hits in the boiler toom..
These characters were clearly not doing science
Fluid dynamics is one of the most difficult fields of study. The ways to make piping systems work is largely a result of observing behaviour and making the calculations fit.
That’s OK.
But pretending to be able to predict fluid dynamics (movement and activity of the oceans and the atmosphere, both are fluids) to the planetary level is the ultimate in hubris.
Computers and software are great tools, but GI=GO.
Gore on the tonight show, type this in on YouTube to see how truly stupid this man is.
The fact that these clowns stil have their jobs proves that their funding comes from backers who WANT them to carry on with the scam….
It is high time for me to put an end to your sitting in this place, which you have dishonored by your contempt of all virtue, and defiled by your practice of every vice; ye are a factious crew, and enemies to all good government; ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money.
Is there a single virtue now remaining amongst you? Is there one vice you do not possess? Ye have no more religion than my horse; gold is your God; which of you have not barter’d your conscience for bribes? Is there a man amongst you that has the least care for the good of the Commonwealth?
Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defil’d this sacred place, and turn’d the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors.
In the name of God, go!
I suspect that some folks are going to be unemployed and unemployable….
Prison—unlikely—these guys have friends in high places…..who will ensure they don’t get hit by the splash.
sasquatch at November 21, 2009 1:49 AM
measuring jobs saved or created in reality; this is a windfall.
My initial euphoria has dissipated. People,we are f##ked. This info will not make it farther than here.We are preaching to the choir. Copenhagen will still be there,the protesters that scream their nonsense will be out,and the media will give more coverage to an asshole in a bear costume than anything that you or I could possibly say… Lock,load,and be sure of your target.
It’s simple Wally. End the incestuous relationship tonight. Reject George VII and we’re free from everything. We can rule our own destiny if we end the subjectification by the Windsors. God bless the Republic of Buffalo.
I’m sort of expecting a major event to divert the attention away from the fraud, lies and agenda’s…not only here but at the highest levels of government.
I don’t see this reaching to Canadian Government heads but I sure see the Empty Suit, Brown and the whole UN body taking serious body blows from this.
Stop the presses!
Another Hockey Stick Emerges
All I know is that we have 210cm of global warming climate change on our local ski hill which is scheduled to open 2 weeks early. Thanks Al.
Where have all the trolls gone…
long time waiting…
OK…needs work…or we could just pave over paradise and put up windmills?
Only we the people will make sure that justice is served upon these frauds.The judges/politicos owe them to many favors.
Starting tomorrow…we kill as many seals as we possibly can to spite the noses off their smug faces. No use wasting time and talking about tits. This our moment Canada – seize the opportunity to show who we are, can be, and always have been. Da truth is in da truth. Our history is irresistible.
Good job covering this over the last day Kate. I am starting to see the news and links around the blogoshpere, and frankly you are doing the best job of getting the info out there. Your commenters are also a wealth of info (and sarcasm – I like it)Ace of Spades is a close second.
Over at Maclean’s blogcentral, its all about Afghan detainees all the time.
Meanwhile as Kate passes her eleven millionth hit, the rest of the lamestream media continue on with their self-indulgent pet issues that are only interesting to themselves and a few of their friends.
Kate,
I concur with the above commenter, you hone it on the right info to be sure.
That graph you’re displaying (along with the pointed analysis) says it all. I hope this post gets linked to again and again, because this one graph is really what it’s all about.
The MSM jumped into its procrustean bed; covered up its head here*; and, has remained there ever since with what’s-his-name from Little Douce Coupe.
…-
“Climategate: how the MSM reported the greatest scandal in modern science
Here’s what the Times has had to say on the subject:
(Yep. Nada)
And the Independent:
(Yep. Ditto).
And here’s how The New York Times (aka Pravda) reported it:
Hundreds of private e-mail messages and documents hacked from a computer server at a British university are causing a stir among global warming skeptics, who say they show that climate scientists conspired to overstate the case for a human influence on climate change.
(Yep. That’s right. It has only apparently caused a stir among ’skeptics’. Everyone else can rest easy. Nothing to see here.)
And here’s how the Guardian has reported it:
Hundreds of private emails and documents allegedly exchanged between some of the world’s leading climate scientists during the past 13 years have been stolen by hackers and leaked online, it emerged today.
The computer files were apparently accessed earlier this week from servers at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit, a world-renowned centre focused on the study of natural and anthropogenic climate change.
(Oh. I get it. It’s just a routine data-theft story, not a scandal. And a chance to remind us of the CRU’s integrity and respectability. And – see below – to get in a snarky, ‘let’s have a dig at the deniers’ quote from Greenpeace).
A spokesman for Greenpeace said: “If you looked through any organisation’s emails from the last 10 years you’d find something that would raise a few eyebrows. Contrary to what the sceptics claim, the Royal Society, the US National Academy of Sciences, Nasa and the world’s leading atmospheric scientists are not the agents of a clandestine global movement against the truth. This stuff might drive some web traffic, but so does David Icke.”
Here’s the Washington Post:” (more)
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017451/climategate-how-the-msm-reported-the-greatest-scandal-in-modern-science/
…-
*Cronkite abed:
“The Tet Offensive by Steven Hayward
The most surprising aspect of the Tet offensive was that it was not really a ….. But it was Cronkite, “the most trusted man in America,” who dealt the …
http://www.ashbrook.org/publicat/dialogue/hayward-tet.html
this may be the number one blogged story in the world today but not at our revered public broadcaster, CBCpravda hasnt even picked it up yet, you dont get much for a billion bucks a year anymore. and its now the weekend so most of CBC’s stuff will not change till Monday, at least on their website.
most of the other MSM havent picked up the significance of it yet , that the data was faked , the graph was faked and then covered up to meet a political agenda.
soon enough it will leak through even the thickest MSM skull.
Are Suzuki and Gore speechless yet?
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/MRG/index.html this is mikes homepage click on opportunities…humor
wingwalker, eloquent speech!: ” … ye are a pack of mercenary wretches, and would like Esau sell your country for a mess of pottage, and like Judas betray your God for a few pieces of money.”
‘Anyone else notice how Al Gore went from being handsome to looking like a spawn of Satan: slits for eyes, something ee-vill about his eyebrows (sort of liked horned owls’), soft, flaccid facial features?
The guy really gives me the creeps, as does Suzuki (I’ve got to be careful about the slitty eyes comment with him — but he’s been looking decidedly sinister lately on all of those stupid ads). These two are NOT NICE MEN.
You can search through the emails at http://www.anelegantchaos.org/cru/index.php
“In order to smooth those time series one needs to “pad” the series beyond the end time, and no matter what method one uses, this leads to a smoothed graph pointing downwards in the end whereas the smoothed instrumental series is pointing upwards — a divergence. So Mann’s solution was to use the instrumental record for padding, which changes the smoothed series to point upwards as clearly seen in UC’s figure (violet original, green without “Mike’s Nature trick”)”
So the hockey team fudged the data to hide the divergence at the endpoint. This is shady stuff, but at the same time we have to keep in mind that they had to come up with something to predict what the last few data points would be (since they did not yet exist in the tree ring data). I think that the only correct thing they could have done at the time was to end the reconstruction at an earlier point (but then I’m sure there would still be divergence in the 20th century).
The real way to correct this problem would be to update the reconstruction with more current data. And I bet that this is where ‘the team’ would run into real trouble, because the anomalous growth from these trees in the 20th century probably have nothing to do with GLOBAL temperature, and so any other time period (other than the one where they saw anomalous growth coincident with rising temperatures) will probably diverge from the temperature record (which is precisely why the hockey stick is flat outside the calibration period – its actual response to global temperature is random: a typical symptom of over-fitting).
Ooh my head hurts.
I was up late celebrating the fact that the world won’t end because of AGW.
Now I’m off to the parade to celebrate some more.
Anyone heard when the parades start?
Orwhere they will be?
There will be a parade, won’t there?
You know, celebrating the planet being safe and the polar bears going to be okay and all that…?
After all, it is fantasitc news, isn’t it?
The greens should be overjoyed, the world isn’t going to end by next month.
Dang, I thought there would be a parade….
This is all very exciting! The MSM aren’t exactly all over it, are they?
wingwalker @2:50AM George VII!? (Sorry, I know you must in reality be cheering the overthrow of the tyrant Triple G…. [It’s a compulsion, really. Can’t resist.] But Yes! God bless the Republic of Buffalo!)
Justthinkin’ @4:14 – arrgh! Summoning the trolls! Now you’ve probably gone and done it. Unless they’re just too embarrassed…
You can tell the Crook what you think of him and his billion dollar photoshopped fraud and scam right here:
http: // www dot generationim dot com / contact /
We’ll be able to throw this in the faces of any and all environmentalists from now until the fat lady sings.
They ask for peer reviewed papers?
SMACK!
They say Global Warming or Climate Change?
SMACK!
They trot out Mann or Jones or Hansen and any of their work or group projects they worked on ?
SMACK!
They criticize McIntyre or McKittrick?
SMACK!
The Left brings up any subjects ever related to any leaks of any kind?
SMACK!
The Left ever questions the assertions we make about media bias?
SMACK!
And that’s just for starters.
There is NO GLOBAL WARMING!
CO2 is NOT a TOXIN!
We are NOT RUNNING OUT OF ENERGY!
and yet, the “fair and balanced” Faux news has buried, yes, made this completely disappear off their on line news, WHY?????
Not so, GYM.
It is front and center on their SciTech section.
Scroll down about half way on the front page and you’ll see it.
gym
Shhhhh, adults are talking!
Oh, and yes the story is right there on their SCIENCE page……you, along with your leftards, need to learn to scratch the surface and dig deeper, instead of being ‘drivebys’…..I don’t know whether people like you (and the MSM) are lazy, stupid, or both (most likely!)
FOX news broadcasts news all weekend.
Laggards MSNBC and CNBC both broadcast infotising all weekend (not enough viewers to pay anchors to read their propaganda)
Yes, FOX is balanced news, but you would not know that, you’ve never watched it. CBC fans like yourself need to open your eyes, and realize you are being spun in circles. Since getting FOX, the CBC, CTV, and CNN no longer get tuned into.
REFRESHING!
It would be great to get our hands on Fox’s Canadian ratings.
Kate, as an aside, I linked to this post in my blog post:
“The Customer is Always Right…Except in the Media Business”
Enter Mao (Hi. Moi’s “Liberal leader” Boob Lae’s Uncle Mo Herman.) Stlong.
…-
“CRU Emails – search engine now online
21 11 2009
Quite a lot of interest continues in the files from CRU that were leaked/hacked and placed on a Russian FTP server. Quite a number of other websites have been things with them ranging from commentary to evaluation of validity. With over 1000 emails, it is a bit of a task to wade through.
The Internet is an amazing place. Now there’s a website that has put all of the emails into a searchable database with a web engine interface.
The screencap below shows the engine at http://www.anelegantchaos.org/cru/
I have no idea who put this together, but it does seem to work quite well. For example, typing in the keyword “moron” yields an interesting email. So does typing in the name of a prominent climate “bulldog”.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/21/cru-emails-search-engine-now-online/
I am wondering how many days will pass before CBC or CTV break this loose on their news broadcasts.
On the broad view, the scandal of AGW is magnitudes more important than the Afghan detainee problem. There’s too much at stake I guess… Copenhagen, world government, vindication for “deniers,” vindication for any and all who opposed Kyoto, vindication for America, embarrassment for having proffered the AGW line without compromise or question for years, another reason to vote CPC, less weight to throw against Big Oil, more power to Western Canada…..
This is too sweet.
Science can only benefit by exposing hypotheses and models to skeptics. The harder you are challenged, the more reliable are those conclusions that survive. And if the hypothesis fails, you can then better direct your efforts. Failures are important signposts and should not be ignored. So any attempt to fudge or to prevent discourse does science a great disservice. In fact, I believe that a researcher should purposely expose any hypothesis to the most critical analysis, seeking actively to disprove it rather than shoring up shoddy data and inconclusive observations. This is what I object to most: There was an active, systematic (and successful) attempt to suppress critical discourse. Whatever side you fall on the climate change debate, the discussion is not advanced by turning one side into pariahs. The scientists that dispute the conclusions have credentials every bit as good as the proponents. So why are they being stifled and treated like cranks and Luddites? Whenever an issue becomes so one-sided, I can’t help but think that we should “follow the money”. This is where I wish investigative reporters would aim their efforts. The climate change folks are trying to present themselves as altruists and caretakers of the planet. Yet, they are just as money-grubbing and self-serving as the most evil capitalist. This is where MSM has let us down so badly. Instead of taking sides, they should be reporting facts. Facts are hard to get but I would give up the millions of pages and blether spoken by “opinionists” for one or two facts and perhaps a few solid speculations.
I’m not opposed to making rational changes that offer benefits. If you’ve spent time in southern Ontario, you know that smog and air pollution are real problems. For congested areas, it makes sense to work on transit systems and alternative forms of transportation. And likely we will have to face the exhaustion of certain energy sources such as oil some time in the future. I would feel a lot more confident about supporting any sort of action if there was any organization or spokesgroup that was on the side of fact and rationality, rather than for or against anything.
Anybody tried to visit Gateway Pundit this morning? I’m getting the message: bandwidth limit exceeded
Three guesses what the topic of discussion is.
Biff said; “The Customer is Always Right…Except in the Media Business”…where he/she is always left(?)
The only realistic way to get this msg. out to the masses is through personal e-mail.
The “I told you so” approach is probably inappropriate as a selling pitch…something a tich more subtle. Lots of links would be good.
She is supposedly a “Civil Servant”. Well, she didn’t conduct herself in a civil manner or as a servant.
[ You probably missed my (Lawrence Solomon) heated on-air debate Thursday morning with Anna Maria Tremonti, host of CBC’s The Current. You certainly missed my superheated off-air debate in her studio immediately afterwards, when Tremonti lit into me for my skepticism of global warming orthodoxy. I don’t recall being berated after an interview by a broadcaster before, certainly not by a consummate professional like Tremonti. But Tremonti was visibly upset, so much so that she ended the second debate by turning away from me without the courtesy of a goodbye .]