Make your prediction in the comments – to make my job easier, please list the parties in alphabetical order (there are 308 seats in total):
BQ
Conservatives
Green
Liberal
NDP
Other/Independent
Bonus: Predict the popular vote for the party winning the most seats. (ie: Liberal – 30%) The bonus question will come into play should no commentor predict the seat distribution accurately enough to declare a clear winner.
Rules: one prediction per commentor and you must provide a valid email address. No email entries will be accepted.
For the person who comes closest in their prediction (after election results are declared final), I’ll send a $25 donation to the charity of your choice – $50 if your prediction is perfect.
In event of a tie, the comment time-stamped earliest will be declared the winner.
This thread will be declared closed at 4pm (Eastern) on Tuesday.
Con 156
Liberal 80
Bloc 39
NDP 33
Green 0
BQ – 41
Conservatives – 143
Green – 0
Liberal – 92
NDP – 32
Other/Independent – 0
Conservatives 38.3 %
When you have to break down the numbers it becomes apparent why it is so difficult to form a majority with so many parties competing for votes.
BQ 41
Con 160
Green 1
Lib 65
NDP 40
Other/Ind 1
Percentage voting 38%
Should I win, the money goes to the SDA Defense fund.
Happy Thanksgiving all SDA readers/posters. May we have even more to be thankful for tomorrow night.
BQ 41
Con 160
Green 1
Lib 65
NDP 40
Other/Ind 1
Percentage voting 38%
Should I win, the money goes to the SDA Defense fund.
Happy Thanksgiving all SDA readers/posters. May we have even more to be thankful for tomorrow night.
BQ – 53
CPC – 139
Green – 0
LPC – 81
NDP – 34
Other -1
CPC minority victory with 37% of popular vote.
Conservatives – 126
Liberals – 93
NDP – 36
Bloc – 51
Green – 0
Independents – 2
Conservatives will garner 35.5% of the vote.
bq 52
cons 138
greens 0
libs 82
ndp 34
other/ind 2
37% for the tories
BQ – 53
Conservative – 148
Green – 0
Liberal – 71
NDP – 34
Independent – 2 (Andre Arthur – Portneuf, Bill Casey – Western Nova)
I can’t use my real e-mail because (1) I truly do need to preserve anonymity and (2) the spam. Some quick thoughts:
-the Conservatives will probably win about 38% of the popular vote, but are positioned to win a lot of close races in Ontario and B.C. Yes it’s a crapshoot, but IMO things are actually breaking better than many think.
-of course the Greens won’t win any seats. People are silly but not that silly, and to paraphrase South Park, they never were a real party anyway.
-it really is hard for the NDP to ever get more than about 40 seats. A good thing too — it’s sad and pathetic how logging and mining towns support a party that wants to stop logging and mining.
-if the Conservatives are to win a majority, you don’t, really don’t, want it to be a bare majority of 155 to 158 seats. If that happened, you would then get squishy MPs sliding around on legislative votes. The Republicans had this problem back when they supposedly controlled the U.S. Senate — but didn’t really because of Republican-in-name-only Senators from Maine, Rhode Island, etc. Imagine a two-seat majority with eight MPs from Quebec and another half-dozen from the old Joe Clark PC Party. Yeccch. Better to win almost half the seats and then get some support from Arthur, Casey, northern Ontario Liberals, and MPs who are only Liberal because they are ethnics from immigrant ridings.
-the Conservatives will win some urban seats in the Greater Vancouver area.
-everybody loves to bash T.O., and I’m right in there piling on, but … what about English Montreal? Are they out to lunch or what?
BQ 40
CON 155
GREEN 3
LIB 79
NDP 31
I don’t want any donations thx..I just give them ..
BQ 28
Conservatives 146 popular vote 41%
Green 0
Liberal 94
NDP 40
Other/Independent 0
BQ – 40
CON – 142
Green – 2
Liberal – 85
NDP – 38
Other – 1
Going against the grain a bit here…
Changed my mind a bit from earlier after reading Nanos daily tracking poll and the 4.5% uptick in Conservative support to more than 37% on Sunday night. That is a good trend and bodes well for election day. The Liberals are falling in Southern Ontario and the few points necessary to flip many seats will likely see a big shift to the Conservatives in seat totals. The fact that Harper went to PEI a few times this election and was there today for a final push suggests that their polling of the Island is better for them than the Atlantic Canada wide polls. The same is true of New Brunswick, where a poll a week ago showed the Conservatives up by 10% on the Liberals (a complete reversal from last time). So……..
BQ 51
Conservatives 158
Green 0
Liberal 62
NDP 35
Other/Independent 2
If the trend in Ontario is matched across the Prairies and BC, then the Liberals could drop further……..making for the interesting prospect on election night that Duceppe could come out of this as Opposition Leader…….who would have thought it?
Election Prediction dot org has finalized its predictions:
Bloc 51
CPC 125
GREEN 0
LPC 94
NDP 36
Ind 2
I disagree. This is not my prediction either.
BQ … 51
Conservatives … 135
Green … 1
Liberal … 76
NDP … 44
Other/Independent … 1
CPC 147
Lib 79
NDP 34
BQ 48
GRN 0
Conservatives 153
Liberals 69
Bloc 49
NDP 33
Green 0
Newfoundland & Labrador First Party 0
Independents 3
The three Independents will be Bill Casey, Andre Arthur and Louise Thibault.
A pact with Andre Arthur, will give the Conservatives a Majority mandate.
I repeat for the trillionth time. We should not allow any party, confined to a specific electorate, to sit in the House.
Whether that specific electorate is a province. Or a religion (imagine confining your electorate to a religion). Or a gender (heh – only gays and lesbians?). Or an income level (only those with incomes over 175,000 per year). Or whatever.
The idea of allowing representation-by-criteria, ie, by an electorate who must meet certain criteria to vote – is deeply undemocratic.
In the 17th century, only landowners could vote. At one time, only men could vote. At other times, only whites could vote. Think about that; those were specific criteria: financial attribute; gender attribute; race attribute. We’ve set up in Canada, geographic attribute.
Why do we, in Canada, permit a situation where only Quebecers can vote for a particular federal party?
Conservatives – 132
Liberal -78
BQ -51
NDP – 43
Other/Independent – 3
Green – 0
Bloc 51
CPC 130
GREEN 0
LPC 90
NDP 36
Ind 1
Conservatives – 36%
I second James’s count.
BQ 59
Conservatives 141
Green 0
Liberal 74
NDP 33
Other 1
I hope the Conservatives do better than my prediction.
BQ 59
Conservatives 141
Green 0
Liberal 74
NDP 33
Other 1
I hope the Conservatives do better than my prediction.
Here’s my “for kicks” prediction. If I’m right, you can be sure I’ll take the $50 for my charity, though!
BQ – 55
Conservatives – 156
Green – 0
Liberal – 54
NDP – 41
Other/Independent – 2
Conservative – 37.4172351%
BQ 39
CPC 162
Green 0
LPC 67
NDP 37
Ind 3
38.1%
CPC – 147
LPC – 76
BLOC – 43
NDP – 39
GRN – 0
INP – 1
Hoping for a majority though!
CPC – 147 (38.5%)
LPC – 76 (24.5%)
BLOC – 43 (8.0%, 34%Q)
NDP – 39 (20%)
GRN – 0 (8%)
INP – 1 (1%)
Hoping for a majority though!
BQ 39
Conservatives 157
Green 1
Liberal 53
NDP 57
Other/Independent 1
Should I fluke this one out, give it to Kate for the defense fund.
Treason party 42
CPC 142
Green 0
LPC 83
NDP 40
Ind 1
pop sup CPC 35.7
BQ – 48
CP – 140
Grn – 0
Lib – 80
NDP – 38
IND – 2
CP – 37.6%
The silent conservative vote (they tell pollsters they are undecided, when they’re really not) will push the tories a bit higher than the polls suggest.
CPC 137 37% Pop support
Lib 88 27%
Bloc Traitorois 42 9%
NDP 40 20%
Indie 1
Greens 0 7%
I also predict 63% voter turnout.
CPC 137 37% Pop support
Lib 88 27%
Bloc Traitorois 42 9%
NDP 40 20%
Indie 1
Greens 0 7%
I also predict 63% voter turnout.
Bloc 42
CPC 154
Green 0
Libs 67 yuk…that seems high
NDP 44
other/Ind. 1
CPC 40% of popular vote.I’m basing that on the ‘undecided’ feeling thankful this w/e and making up their minds.
Keep it for the defence fund, Kate.
Well, I’ll certainly sleep better tonight after looking at some of these predictions.
Another good indication is the Catholic lawns sporting CONS signs in our small town.
Through gritted teeth they acknowledge that there are two important issues: abortion and same-sex marriage.
Thus, can’t predict with unseen forces at work.
Bloc Treason 45
Tories 145
Tree Huggers 0
Lieberal$ 76
Dipper Commies 40
Indies 2
Tories with 37.5 percent of the vote.
Does not count floor crossers, which I assume there must be one in the wings somewhere.
BQ 51
Con 135
Grn 0
Lib 85
NDP 35
Ind 2
B.Q. – 43
Conservatives – 164
Green – 0
Liberals – 69
NDP – 31
Independent – 1
Conservatives 38%
A vote splitting landslide.
Independents 1
Greens 1
Conservatives 306
There that should do it!
Bloc – 50
Conservative – 135 (38%)
Green – 0
Lieberal – 83
NPD – 39
Other – 1
If I win the pool my winnings go to PETA… Just Kidding, actually SPCA.
If I win, I want my donation to go to a Dion leadership campaign.
Agree ET. And Kate, after tommorrow,there will be 309 seats as Tin Lizzie screams to be included,like the debate, even though the Watermelons will probably only get 0.001% of the vote.
BQ – 46
Con- 143
Lib – 79
NDP – 40
I haven’t seen any “I told you so” discussions regarding the Quebec vote.Many were skeptical and dissappointed with his response to Quebecers. Being an optimist and trusting that PMSH had a reason to believe that his handling of Quebec over the last 2.5 years would have the result of wiping out the Bloc, I have to say now I’m shocked.
They really are a mystery.
Hopefully PMSH has learned.If CPC loses seats in Quebec to Libs or Bloc, I would now like the seperation process to begin. Enough!
Kate…what are your predictions?
BQ = 55
Conservatives = 132
Green = 0
Liberal = 85
NDP = 34
Other/Independent = 2
Bonus question: Conservatives 38.5%
BQ: 34
Conservatives:137
Green: o
Liberal: 95
NDP: 42
BQ – 49
Conservatives – 131
Green – 0
Liberal – 94
NDP – 32
Other/Independent – 2
49
131
094
32
2
Popular vote: Tory minority (35.2%)
I need the Marcus Vitrivous Moon calculator.
Though guessing from his “prediction of a larger minority” and after looking at the others;
BQ- 48 (cuz their “a Nation” now)
Conservatives- 140 (because Quebec cost’em)
Green – 3 ,0 in N.Scotia(“strategic voting” cost’em)
Liberal- 79 (cuz of “the economy”)
NDP – 38 (cuz Layton “can lift rocks”)
Other/Independent-0
Conservatives 152
Liberal 59
BQ 52
NDP 45
Green 0
Ind. 0
BQ 28
Con 168
Green 0
Lib 72
NDP 39
Ind 1
48
142
084
33
1
BQ – 48
Cons – 142
Green – 0 (nadda, zero, zilch)
Lib – 84
NDP – 33
Ind – 1
Pop. Vote – Con 38.4%
BQ 58……..11%
CPC 126……34%
Lpc 104…..27%
Green 0……8%
Ind 1……1%
NDP 19…..19%