If Erdoğan ascends to Çankaya Palace–the Turkish White House–Turks face the prospect of an Islamist president and a first lady who wears a Saudi-style headscarf. Such a prospect has fueled speculation about intervention by the Turkish military, which traditionally serves as the guardian of secularism and the Turkish constitution. In December 2006, for example, Newsweek published an essay entitled “The Coming Coup d’Etat?” predicting a 50 percent chance of the military seizing control in Turkey this year.[1]
While concern about the future of Turkish secularism is warranted, alarmism about military intervention is not. There will be no more military coups in Turkey. Erdoğan may be prepared to spark a constitutional crisis in pursuit of personal ambition and ideological agenda, but Turkey’s civilian institutions are strong enough to confront the challenge. The greatest danger to Turkish democracy will not be Turkish military intervention, but rather well-meaning but naïve interference by U.S. diplomats seeking stability and downplaying the Islamist threat.
“a first lady who wears a Saudi-style headscarf”.
Women don’t wear headscarfs in Saudi. Perhaps she’s a cross-dresser.
Rubin is wrong. If the government tries to move away from its basic secularism, the armed forces will intervene.
I read Rubin’s article – I can’t say I really understood it – and I can say that I’m an expert on Turkish politics or even Turkey.
Firstly, I was in Turkey and Istanbul in May/06 and I was shocked with the degree of economic development. This country is getting close to first world status. These people – all of them – are becoming prosperous – through hard work. Businessmen who had emigrated to Canada had later emigrated back to Turkey because of the opportunities (they loved Canada btw). In Istanbul, the univeristy (the one beside the Grand Bazaar) was packed with students and was equally male and female – I didn’t see alot of headgear. I got the impression that everyone wants to join the EU and that they are critical of the way the gov’t is handling it (i.e. not taking steps to address the Armenian issue and the Cyprus issue). The Turks are proud to be Turks first and Muslim second and I don’t think they will endorse anyone who will compromise their success.
Secondly, I don’t buy into the idea that the US and Bush need to be warned about meddling – come on. We should all know by now that Bush’s prime directive (sounds like Star Trek) is bringing democracy to the Muslim world – he tells us this in every speach he has made since 9/11 – in order to protect America. Turkey has a mature relationship with the US and is a model for democracy in the Middle East (i.e. the average guy over their can see their success).