31 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

  1. I watch a few farming YouTube channels, it is just as bad in Minnesota and Wyoming. Search Welker farms, Millenial farmer, Larson farms on YouTube. Things do not sound promising in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Everybody is planting late, using less fertilizer scrambling for short season seed.

    1. Manitoba is blitzing right now to get as much seeded as possible. We have 3 or 4 days of rain starting tomorrow.

  2. Extreme weather.
    We’re all gonna dieeeeeeeeeee.
    But before we go, we’d like to raise your diesel prices so high you will return to plough horses. Oh … and your natural gas costs. And fuel oil. And gasoline. We’ll Jack those up too … necessarily. And then we will tax every element of the fossil fuel supply chain. And demand Banks STOP lending or doing any business with any corp. or individual who doesn’t pray to Al Gore. And then we die. Inside 5-years … tops.

    3. Kenji

      Sorry but you can’t use plow horses.
      – cruelty to animals
      – horses generate methane

  3. My pantry is full of half-boxes and bags of dry goods. My fiancee tells me I need to get rid of them because they are stale. I tell her that there will come a time soon when she will be glad to eat them. Fortunately she is aware enough to know that I’m correct and doesn’t continue the conversation. I’m not a survivalist, but I do stock up a bit on non-perishable items on BOGO that we wouldn’t normally eat. I’m also invested in lead.

    2. Hi roaddog, a few facts you may not be aware of.
      The longest day of the year is June 21st, so the most sunlight is available in the weeks prior and after. The larger the plant is during this period, the more leaf area it has to convert solar energy into growth. The larger the plant, the larger the seeds it can create which increases yield. Late seeding means the plant, whether it be wheat, soybean, corn or barley, is not large enough to take full advantage of the long summer days and the harvest will be poor. At the other end of the growing season is the first frost when the plant dies, from that point the seeds do not grow any larger so an early frost lowers yield too. Grain farmers are always racing against time and weather in the spring for these reasons.

      In 2011, the “bread basket of Europe” was not invaded. In 2021 Russia exported 13.1% of the world’s wheat and the Ukraine 8.5%. Both countries have stopped exports of wheat to ensure their citizens have enough to eat, that removed 21.6% from the worlds wheat markets. India has stopped exporting wheat as well so that is another 3.1%. The Chinese winter wheat crop yield was 50% this spring so the Chinese government is buying everything it can get its hands on.

      The USA and Canada exported 25% of the worlds wheat last year. With 25% of world’s exports remaining in Ukraine, Russia and India a poor yield in North America means the price of food is going to skyrocket everywhere and millions in the third world will go hungry.

      1. Al, thank you for all that information. Myself, I was focused on North Dakota, because that is what the image communicates; but I do appreciate the larger context. FYI, last week it snowed 12″ here, so I am aware what spring weather is like, and when the solstice comes. This cold, wet spring seems to be exactly what the climate nutters are telling us can’t happen, so there’s that.

        I’m certain those folks in Davos are looking out for us, and will ensure Russia and Ukraine have lots of grain storage built to hold all that wheat they will be refusing to ship. Just look at what a great job the UN has done ensuring that there are no longer any military conflicts in the world. All we need do is get started on recycling all that disabled Russian military hardware into grain bins. (I told you they were looking out for us!) Then of course our buddy President Pop Tart has done everything in his power to reduce the production of natural gas, so there’s less feedstock available for fertilizer production. Fuel costs for farmers in the west have doubled, just as they have for the rest of us, so of course it’s going to be a much more costly crop, when it does come in; and transport costs will be similarly magnified.

        Yes, it’s all coming together. The juxtaposition of great governance, and unusual weather.

        FYI, if world leaders gave a damn about the survival of people in the third world, they would be helping not hindering the construction of functioning electrical grids in those nations. But they don’t.

        LC’s comments below are the most relevant. Governance is generally more influential (damaging) than weather.

        1. The crops don’t care about governance. Their growth is dependent on the weather, when they are planted and how long the season is. The right amount of time and water and sun. The harvest is dependent on the weather, and governance becomes more and more irrelevant to average people when there isn’t enough to eat. They will do what they need to do, and it won’t be pretty.

          1. You’ve got it exactly backwards. Bad governance becomes more and more relevant when there isn’t enough to eat.

  6. I will leave it to the self-styled Ukrainian patriot of every farming town in western Canada to explain why losing this year’s crop will be worth it to tell Putin where to go.

    Putin, of course, is going to Kiev, to receive a hero’s welcome as the man who rid Lesser Russia of its globalist and Nazi plagues.

    1. Your prescription needs to be refilled. Call your doctor and make a trip to the pharmacy.

      1. Well the great thing about all this is one of the two of you is smoking unicorn farts and the other is bang on in their assessment. Who is right? And who will be mercilessly hounded and ridiculed as a delusional shill for the rest of their internet posting days?!…

        In situations like these, one ought to tip the odds towards the one who has done the most extensive and exhaustive research, and can honestly say their opinion is based on independently-verified (i.e. personally-analysed) data and results. He who lazily parrots what they hear others in their circle stating, is most likely to lose the day. Whether buying/selling securities, or picking winners in a geopolitical showdown, this is most often the way things land.

        Of course, these are all probabilistic statements anyway.

        Either way, we SHALL receive confirmation, one way or another!

    2. Putin ALREADY went to Kiev/Kyiv.
      He got to the suburbs and then had his backside handed to him by the rag-tag Ukrainian army.

  7. Spring wheat is primarily Durum wheat.
    What is made out of Durum wheat? PASTA!!
    If you eat pasta products next year is gonna be GRIM!
    Prepare accordingly!

    1. Greg

      Meh….not a problem, My Duramax is an 06…modded w/EGR & Kitty delete & EFI live…among many other additions / modifications.
      21mpg at 120kmh…mt truck.

      DEF started with the 2010 model yr I believe…Another bit Climate Change BS as the more emissions garbage is added, mileage goes down, and one simply has to burn MORE fuel to go the same distance. It’s kinda like banging ones head into a concrete wall and expecting a different result….or owning a Tesla pulling a trailer with a Generator.

      608,650 kms and runs just fine – when I can afford to fill the damned thing up…!!
      Still compared to Ontariowe.?? Diesel at Costco Calgary SE at $1.659 compared to ~ $2.30 out there

      1. The new semis are more efficient than 10 year old trucks. Even 20 year old trucks.

        The problem is you can’t remove the DEF system due to annual inspections. Unless the guy doing your safety is crooked. Most won’t take the risk.

  9. Saskatchewan seeding progress as of May 26 :
    “According to the weekly crop report from the Ministry of Agriculture, 52 per cent of the 2022 crop is now seeded, up from 33 per cent last week. But the five-year average for this time of year is 78 per cent.

    Farmers in the west-central region of the province are the farthest along with 81 per cent of the crop in the ground. Seeding in the northwest is 76 per cent complete, the southwest is at 73 per cent, the southeast is at 44 per cent, the northeast is 22 per cent complete, and the east-central region is at 21 per cent.”

    The farms in my area are pretty much done seeding and crop irrigation has started. Farmers here move fast when weather cooperates. The planned expansion of irrigation in the Lake Diefenbaker region should decrease crop problems due to drought and increase livestock production.

    Most of Saskatchewan’s agricultural problems originate in Ottawa. Mother Nature may be chaotic, but federal Liberal politicians are consistently malicious.

    2. LC

      “..Most of Saskatchewan’s agricultural problems originate in Ottawa. Mother Nature may be chaotic, but federal Liberal politicians are consistently malicious…”

      Same could easily be said of the Oil n Gas industry

      1. Yep. Alberta and Saskatchewan’s biggest problem are politicians from central Canada. Their legislative attacks on our economy and their hatred of people living here has been continuous since Justin Trudeau’s father, Pierre Trudeau, was prime minister.

          1. That would be my preference. First implement Harper’s firewall strategy. Then referendum. Then UDI.

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