The Sound Of Settled Science

9 Replies to “The Sound Of Settled Science”

1. Tweet is missing from front end of Blog post…

2. Never mind… just me, a refresh and bingo it was all there.

3. I sometimes wonder what Mark Twain woulda said about computer models…..he did have an opinion on statistics…….

4. Wotta brilliant guy —
   // Natural forcings have dominated for 4.5B yr //
   Why that picture of Ros Carter with John Gacy?
   Oh Gacy was a LEFT-WING serial killer !!
   It’s twitter alright.

5. The problem is that the LIVs and green goofs will look at that graph and say “See, temperature’s going UP!”

6. The climate modellers have failed, comprehensively. The important question for policy formation
   is not, “is the Earth warming”,
   but “can we predict temperatures and rainfall in the future?” The answer, clearly, is NO.
   This relegates “climate science”
   to the realm of birdwatching, as a science; or perhaps less than birdwatching (birds can be interesting).

7. “Oh Gacy was a LEFT-WING serial killer !!”
   Yep, just like Jim Jones, another evil and twisted Democrat. Just like Fred Phelps, another evil and twisted Democrat.

8. I do not understand the graph ….. can someone please explain it for me ??
   Thank you.

9. Arnie:
   What is being plotted is the result of this caclulation:
   Data point y value = (Model mean predicted temp anomaly) – (Actual measured HADCRUT4 temp anomaly)
   Think of it as an error signal between the models and reality. The fact the error signal is always positive (except in 2002 it was zero) and growing means the models are diverging from reality as time goes on, and that the models always predict higher temps than reality. The red line is just a linear average, but it shows the models are diverging from reality at a rate that is about double the rate those models claim the earth is warming (they claim 1.2C/century but this error is growing at a nominal 2.33C/century. The model error is worse than the earth temp anomaly itself!
   Ray