What would we do without experts?
State crime lab analyst Kathryn Troyer was running tests on Arizona’s DNA database when she stumbled across two felons with remarkably similar genetic profiles.
The men matched at nine of the 13 locations on chromosomes, or loci, commonly used to distinguish people.
The FBI estimated the odds of unrelated people sharing those genetic markers to be as remote as 1 in 113 billion. But the mug shots of the two felons suggested that they were not related: One was black, the other white.
In the years after her 2001 discovery, Troyer found dozens of similar matches — each seeming to defy impossible odds.
As word spread, these findings by a little-known lab worker raised questions about the accuracy of the FBI’s DNA statistics and ignited a legal fight over whether the nation’s genetic databases ought to be opened to wider scrutiny.
[…]
Among about 65,000 felons [in the Arizona database], there were 122 pairs that matched at nine of 13 loci. Twenty pairs matched at 10 loci. One matched at 11 and one at 12, though both later proved to belong to relatives.
The American Kennel Club has run into similar issues with their own DNA typing of purebred dogs. Breeders may use now use two different sires on a single litter if they choose, providing they parentage test the offspring. However, problems can arise – sometimes two sires share so many of the same markers that it isn’t possible to know which dog fathered what puppy. This should have been forseeable, given that so many breeds are based on a mere handful of founders.
In much the same way, present day humans are thought to be the survivors of genetic bottlenecking events that reduced world populations to mere thousands in the not so distant past. Despite our large modern population, we have relatively low genetic diversity.
Indeed, there is substantially more genetic difference among individuals within chimpanzee troops in West Africa than among all living humans on earth. As shown in Figure 1, this is due to a series of bottlenecks in human evolutionary history. Geneticists studying many different parts of the human genome have concluded that the past effective population size (that is, the number of reproducing females) averaged only 10,000 individuals over the last one million years, and was as low as 5,000 around 70,000 years ago. Compare this to the approximately one billion reproducing females alive today, and it becomes clear just how narrow these bottlenecks were.
Why this was not factored in when probabilities were assigned to DNA profiling is anyone’s guess, but the actions of the FBI in attempting to block continued investigations of databases suggests their oft-cited figures arose not in the genetics lab, but in the bureaucracy.
DNA typing will always be a powerful tool in law enforcement. But should it have been touted as infallable in the way that it has? Absolutely not – too many genetic phenomenon break the “rules” for that. See tetragametic chimerism. The bizarre claims of the FBI and other law enforcement agencies about the mathematical rarity of DNA matches, (on samples using as few as 9 loci!) were as unprovable and as ridiculous as asserting that “no two snowflakes are alike”. Their attempts to elevate the confidence of the science beyond reasonable limits will likely end up producing the opposite result, giving defense lawyers an opening to undermine the integrity of legitimate DNA evidence in the minds of jurors.
ht
