26 Replies to “September 2, 2025: Reader Tips”

  1. Hubbard (the father of Peak Oil) predicted that oil production would peak in 1970-1972 and then begin to decline. While technically correct (conventional oil supply did peak in 1972), with the development of tight oil shale, oil production has continued to grow and reaching new peaks almost every year, making Hubbard’s prediction look like Ehrlich’s death march in his now discredited book “The Population Bomb”.

    But … pay attention to this video. Nate Hagens interviews Arthur Berman on oil availability in the coming years. The Great Simplification #101 is entitled “Shale Oil and the Slurping Sound” which is an analogy to how America is extracting tight oil.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqTh2nBEcCs

    U.S. oil output peaked in 2023 (~13 million bbl/dy). Of that production, tight oil accounted for 70% of the output and the Permian is 68% of total tight oil output, accounting for nearly 50% of all U.S. production.

    The kicker is … production in the Permian is peaking, and production per well is now falling. Until recently, the rate of new wells more than made up the difference. But, with the easy wells found, drilled, and pumped dry, the newer wells are taking more effort for less reward, putting America at the edge of a future down slope in oil production. By 2040, America will be in oil trouble.

    1. Fifty percent of Russia’s onshore and offshore areas have not been explored. They will make up for any American shortfall.

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