146 Replies to “Election Night Updates”

  1. I am watching Juno news live on YT with Candace Malcom and Keean Bexte. Will not support any of the Liberal subsidized media, by tuning into their propaganda. Disappointed to see none of the Independents mention in the Blog.

  2. Based what I’ve seen on Rebel News so far, all I can say is “G’bye, Canada.”

  3. Don’t waste time on MSM Liberal tonguebaths.

    Watch YT streams instead.
    Shaun Newman podcast.
    TNT (Wyatt Claypool)

  4. Gonna be a long night and I’m already tired and world weary.
    Nothing new under the sun.
    Tend your garden.

  5. Seems they are running even in the Atlantic so far. If this holds, good news for the Cons.

      1. No, you were right the first time. When Justatwit was leader, mostly the LPC swept Atlantic Canada.

    2. Cautious note of hope: most polling was showing Liberals at 60+% out here in the “culture of defeat” but it seems they’re running closer to 50%. If that significant CPC “overperformance” carries forward into Ontario …

      Also if nothing else I’m at least satisfied to see my old home riding in NB is staying solid blue. Richard Bragden. A thoroughly good man.

        1. It’s 10 PM, a bit early for me to start boozing, but, tonight, I’ll make an exception.

    2. You guys out there may have to support yourselves, I mean when quebec runs a deficit, that’s all Alberta can handle.

  7. The uber-skank from AM1010 (John Moore) is again at CTV. Which makes CTV unwatchable. At Global there’s another one I can’t stand (Friesen), and at CBC there’s the whale R Barton.

  8. The Globe and Mail reminds!

    While popular vote reflects overall support, it does not affect representation in Parliament

    But, but, but … DEMOCRACY!!! What about the will of The People!? That’s what the left screamed when SHE won the popular vote and Trump won the “seats” (electoral college). So why the anti-Democracy prophylactic comment from the media?

    2. I don’t think the average Canadian is supposed to understand how their government is selected; confirmed by the fact that the government owns the media.

  9. The popular vote in the Atlantic so far: 50-43
    The polls had it
    Forum: 59-34
    Nanos: 52-36
    Liason: Libs at 57
    Research: 57-39

  10. Pick-up of 3 or 4 seats in Atlantic is a good sign.
    Only the French and the worst of the freebie crowd stayed Liberal.

  12. Can I make a prediction now?

    I predict the polls underestimated Con vote by 4 and overestimated Lib vote by 3.

    Either the polls were off, or the undecided went big for Con. Last minute surge to Con. And the polls did show a small surge to Con.

    So I estimate Con 44 to Lib 39. Which I am guessing probably translates to a Con majority. A repeat of the US election.

        1. I support and vote Conservative.

          When the pollsters call – and they have, I hang up. I think that is common among Conservatives.

          How do the pollsters score the hang-ups? Undecided? Or not at all?

          2. And many of the polls are self selecting internet polls. I am on the Nanos list and a couple of years ago, I used to participate in their polls some times….but don’t any longer. I don’t answer any poll questions on the phone or take part in self selecting polls either. On line polls or polls that don’t have a “margin of error” are a joke.

    2. I never buy the “Last minute surge” statements, as if people suddenly made up, or changed, their minds.

      1. We’re talking just 3 or 4 out of 100 voters. So the word surge may exaggerate, but that’s all it takes.

    3. scf, that’s the usual pattern. Conservatives tend to be under-represented in polls and progressives over-sampled. That said, none of the results right now mean much except that there are some hopeful signs. The real acid test comes in about an hour from now when results start coming in from Ontario and Quebec.

      1. Ontario for sure is key. It’s true – in 2020 in the USA, Florida surged GOP. But it turned out in the end to be restricted to Florida. Will Ontario show a similar small swing towards the Cons as the Atlantic?

        1. scf, agreed. The region to watch for in Ontario is the 905 region. That and also to see if 1. the Dips get wiped out in Hamilton and Windsor, and 2. if the Libs lose any of their seats in Toronto.

    4. Charestiste agrees with your assessment. Maritimes is CPC overperform.
      Good news!
      Liberals in Trouble!
      Blue Wave!

      YT Clydedosomething

      Marty up north
      Vesper
      Newman

      Better than anywhere, they have their own, fast map.

  13. Went to vote today and there was a “CFP” candidate on the ballet. Never heard of the CFP so I looked them up. The Canada Future Party. Looks like a bunch of Red Tories with the sads.

        1. Why, I just rubbed my elbow on them and I understood them fully! That’s how good they are!

  15. Don’t believe easterners suddenly had a collective uptick in their IQ. The grifters will likely win out over common sense. Bend over and kiss ‘er goodbye.
    Canaduh, now a wholly owned WEF subsidiary
    Marx Blarney will make us an open air prison colony, just like Herr Starmer’s UK.
    This is going to make me a full on supporter of western separation.
    Goodbye leeches, good luck with your ecotard caliphate.

  16. Cautiously optimistic at 7pm.
    Liberals not measuring up. CPC over performing.

    And BC is in play!

    CPC minority or majority?

      1. Yeah Kenji, I could wish more will follow suit, as would Dan in BC, but you should see this place.

    2. I would like to see the Cons leading in Ontario, but they’re not, they’re behind by 4 points and 16 seats in Ontario. So I’ve lost my optimism.

  18. Unless we get a conservative majority government, I am going to be insufferable to every Liberal I know.

  19. 10:07 results
    Lib + NDP = Cons + BQ -2

    well well, again the nation’s interest hinge on hard core socialists hooking up with hard core commie wannabes. aaaaaaand dats da vay hitt hiss. yawol !!!

  20. My elderly anti-Trump relative on Vancouver Island will likely be rejoicing tonight. Better under the CCP than the U. S. A. in her mind.

  21. it’s on you now Alberta and Saskatchewan, central Canada just laid you down and raped you. Do you spread your legs and beg for more, or do you get out the mace, spray the perp and for the Love Of God, get on with a referendum and succession.

    It is time to choose.

    1. Polls Queerbec and west, except BC all closed simultaneously, so us rubes here in the hinterland will just do as we always must do, just shaddup, build the economy, produce the wealth, and send the profits over to those eastern freeloading bastards ….. The fix was in a long time ago and the system ensures it’ll never change. Fukit!

  22. Looking like the early cautious optimism was fools gold. The NDP vote seems to be collapsing even worse than predicted (sub 5% as I write this!) and the Liberals are flirting with 50%. Major outlets already calling a Liberal win.

    This $%@-:/#-( country!

  23. Hopefully Alberta starts the separation drive tomorrow. I’d say it’s going to be a libtard majority now.

  26. fwiw the 4 times liberal incumbent in my riding won again.
    he’s slick. voiced a desire turdeau 2.0 needed to go, seems to have pd off . . .
    l predicted this, didnt *want* it . . . . .

  27. Some media may have gone too early calling a Liberal win, a non-result is possible.

    If Lib + NDP end up lower than CPC + BQ, it could be unworkable, I think there was a similar result in 1957 before Dief 1958 that created a majority gov’t.

    This election may turn out to be less conclusive than some are now saying.

    1. It’s not clear if the Libs can reach a majority. If not, it’s not clear if the NDP put them over the top again.

  28. This might be the first election ever that hinges on BC. Almost every election it’s over before the BC results are in.

  33. Well Canada … I feel your pain. Here in CA we have a supermajority leftist governance. We are a fully communist State … just as you are now a fully communist satellite Province of China. Enjoy the decline. And if you can, tend your garden … and ignore/avoid all the “newcomers”.

  37. Without the NDP to split the commie vote, the CPC didn’t have a chance. Canada is finally going to get what the people want, good and hard.
    Now we’ll see if AB has the cajones for a referendum.

    1. Don’t look now, the Cons are just 6 seats behind the Libs.

      Libs + NDP + Greens is less than a majority.

      Cons + Bloc is a majority. They could form the government.

  38. When do the early votes get counted?
    Early.late, or whenever time permits?
    I remain quite interested by what the early vote was..
    This is the most stress free election of my life.
    I just don’t care about confederated Canada or who will form the Federal Government.
    The only sane,rational choice left to Western Canadian citizens, is WEXIT.
    If we want any hope of creating wealth,holding private property and being able to pass these things forward..
    We must separate our affairs from the Welfare Kleptocracy of Can Ahh Duh.

    While it is too early to call,I find myself cheering for our Eastern Comrades choosing the State of Thuggery..
    Do it.
    If we believe in the values,ethics and restraint that made us a nice civil society,with the ideal that work has benefit..
    We have no place in todays Canada.

  39. Con + bloc is now won + leading in 173.

    Which means Lib + NDP + Green is less than a majority.

    Let the vote-stealing begin.

  40. This election was all about Trump , nothing more . Elbows up and all the rest of the TDS and here we have Marx Carney ready to stick it to the average Canadian . The irony is that Trump got his guy elected , he said himself on several occasions . The run of the mill liberal voter in Canada are unable to understand that irony . Enjoy net zero .

    1. Hopefully this government js short lived and Trump can keep his yap shut during the next election.

      2. LOL that is some hope. Trump is a pathological narcissist in mental decline. He’s not keeping his yap shut as long as he’s conscious.

        1. “Pathological narcissist in metal decline”? Wow, Bell and Howell never projected like that!

  41. There’s been some shenanigans with elections: the number of candidates in Carleton + the reverse & win of Sean Fraser after it was declared as loss.

  42. This may very well be a Conservative minority. Cons + Bloc in a separation coalition.

    But it’s so damn close it could flip in any direction.

  43. I remember getting lit up here after Trump started all of this annexation and tariff nonsense against Canada. The polls flip flopped over night. We went from a borderline C majority to the Ls having a comfortable lead.

    The polls are biased, you said!

    Turns out the polls were right and you were wrong.

    1. This is not a comfortable lead. Libs + Green + NDP is less than a majority at this time. Hopefully it stays that way.

    2. Which poll has shown 1.5% difference in popular vote?
      Would you like a list that did not?

      But yes I blame Trump and Ford.

    3. “I remember getting lit up here after Trump started all of this annexation and tariff nonsense against Canada. ”

      Richly deserved, because you were gullible enough to actually *believe* Donald Trump when he started using his standard negotiating tactics (READ his books, fool…it’s all in there). We laughed at you then, and we’re still laughing at you now.

      1. That’s entirely besides the point and there is no reason to believe this is a ‘negotiating tactic’ which is just more make-believe BS on your part.

      2. The president sat down for an interview with Time magazine, during which a reporter suggested Trump may have been “trolling a little bit” with his repeated comments that Canada should be absorbed into the United States.

        “Actually, no, I’m not,” Trump said in the interview, which was conducted Tuesday.

        “I think Canada, what you said that, ‘Well, that one, I might be trolling.’ But I’m really not trolling,” Trump added. “Canada is an interesting case.”

        The president repeated his frequent claims that the U.S. is losing money to Canada because of trade deficits and that there is no need for America to import Canadian products.

        “We’re taking care of their military. We’re taking care of every aspect of their lives, and we don’t need them to make cars for us,” Trump told Time. “In fact, we don’t want them to make cars for us. We want to make our own cars. We don’t need their lumber. We don’t need their energy. We don’t need anything from Canada. And I say the only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state.”

    5. I think putting Carney in charge had way more to do with it than Turmp. But yeah all that stuff about biased polls was cope and nonsense.

      1. Current difference in popular vote is less than one 1%. Can you point me to a poll that shown that?

        1. Pretty sure that’s within MOE of Leger (maybe?) and in any event it’s the seats that count and 338 dot com had a range of forecasts and this outcome is within it-granted, nowhere near the best case scenario for the Liberals. Like I say below, this could have been a lot worse.

          1. Do you understand what is Margin of Error is and how it is calculated. I doesn’t sound like you do. Anyway last Leger was on 26th and shown 4% difference in popular vote.

            Remember Silver during last US federal election accusing pollsters of following one another? Guess whom did they follow this time?

        1. Indeed. Please take a look to ponder the various features including projections. Take a course in statistics, if you can. I have.

          1. Facepalm. Well you clearly haven’t learned much. Really, you’re not in a position to teach me stats. You’re not even in the same league.

            Also. Current difference in poplar vote 0.8%, here is a convenient list of polls, find me one that was close: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election
            Every single mainstream pollster underestimated Conservative performance. Every single one. Let that sink in. Some like Ekos were nothing but propaganda. Liaison (on Chicom payroll) did an interesting thing. Can you spot what they did?

          2. First, they got the seat project more or less okay.

            More importantly to Allan’s original point: the double-digit massive lead dissipated. The pollsters were right about that and quibbling over the MOE is just a cope.

          3. So you don’t understand how Margin of Error is constructed and you want to teach me about stats?

            The projection from 338 shows clear Librano majority. It is based on the polls that consistently underestimated Conservative support. The projection is way off. He kept updating it with new polls coming in and the polls were biased and thus was the projection.

            As for the pollsters showing a massive drop in Conservative lead when Trump started to flap his gums, yes they were correct that it happened. Don’t know who claimed otherwise, certainly not I, nor the people who defended Trump claiming that the drop in polls was independent of Trump. Alan’s argument is a strawman in that sense.

            The pollsters also significantly overestimated the magnitude of the drop and the trend after.

            Finally your entire thesis that it was NDP collapse not Trump is idiotic. NDP collapsed largely because Trump.

          4. “The projection from 338 shows clear Librano majority. ”

            That was their most likely projection, but they showed it dropping in likelihood with a consummate rise in likelihood of Liberal minority. Low-probability events are not impossible, just low probability.

            The NDP collapse was probably the result of Carney stepping in. Pretty sure that’s when it started, before The Turmpening.

          5. “…but they showed it dropping in likelihood”

            Nope, they have shown steady and consistent trends with minimal variation. Stop spinning and look at the graphs, they ought to be easy to read for someone who took Statistics 105 (Statistics for Non Specialists to go along your Economics 105) and got it rubber stamped. Besides since the pollsters were consistent why would you expect 338 projection to change.

            So have you figured out how margin of error is calculated and what role did Liaison play? If you get the second one I will believe that you have actually taken Stats 100 not 105.

  44. On the plus side, if you can call it that, at least the Liberals will get the blame when Canada officially goes into a long economic depression…

    1. Canada has already been in a depression for 10 years. 1.7% growth per capita over an entire decade. That’s not per year. That’s all 10 years. Hard to do worse than that.

      1. Indeed. Canada has been lowest among OECD nations in attracting investment capital. It has been flowing out of Canada to other countries for a decade. This has resulted in Canada trailing most of the industrial nations in decline in investment per worker. This means Canada’s industries are becoming older with increasingly obsolete equipment compared to other nations.

        This is what will accelerate the downward economic tailspin. Carney will do nothing to affect any of this.

        1. Actually Carney will push for the decline and sheer it. Net Zero baby! If he can eliminate Canadian middle class, all the better.

    1. A lot of PPC supporters voted Conservative if they believed it could prevent an NDP or Liberal riding win. PPC support will be better determined from ridings where that was not a factor.

      1. If that is true, then I hope they will use their brains again. But I doubt it is true.

  46. This could have been a lot worse. That it’s close even with the NDP vote pretty much collapsed and all the other headwinds for the CPC is salutary. The CPC should hold onto Pierre, for the time being…after waterboarding him and Jenni for their mistakes.

      1. Who is funding the protest group that is putting 90 candidates on the ballot? The only people who constantly cry to get rid of the first past the post elections are the socialist who are convinced that they will win control, and they’re correct.

        Roughly 60% of Canadians are hard left socialists, and their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choice would all be hard left socialist. This would block any vote splitting that has occured in the past. We can see the effect of the NDP collapse on the votes for the Liberal party in this election. With some type of proportional vote, or ranked voting, there would never be another Conservative government, and the socialists know it.

        1. “Who is funding the protest group that is putting 90 candidates on the ballot?”

          That is a good question? Soros? Trump? Libranos with Carnage’s “blind trust”?

  47. Ontario is not a mind hive and neither is even Toronto. While mostly Liberal, there are about a dozen CPC-leaning ridings in TO. There is NOT A ONE in Montreal.

    1) Stop bashing Ontario and Toronto (at least for being some imaginary hive-mind, feel free to bash them for being sucky places to live)

    2) Stop trying to make a CPC majority a la Quebecois happen. This is the ‘fetch’ of Canadian political gambits. ‘Fetch’ isn’t happening and it’s not even necessary, Harper got his majority without much Quebec involvement

    1 + 2 = 3) The CPC’s path to government or at least a viable future runs through Toronto (and various parts of BC).

    1. That is actually correct of the 31 seats Conservatives picked up as of current expectations they picked up 20 in Ontario. Ontario is expected to get 65 Librano and 57 Cons with NDP and Green wiped out.

    2. “Ontario is not a hive-mind”, buzzes Unme with his wings while dancing, wiggling his ass towards the sun…

  48. Big takeaways:
    Neither the conservatives nor liberals can form a majority; they’d each need the cooperation of the bq to form a minority government. The NDP lost official party status. The PPC is a spent force.

    We’ll be going to the polls again this year. There’d no way to pass a money bill.

  49. Canada is a shit show! And all common sense Canadians just got flushed down the toilet! Saskatchewan and Alberta must start separation proceedings immediately!

    1. Can they form their own army and liberate me from the clutches of socialism in Manitobastan?

      1. You dam right we will make a functioning army! The best military in the world—-Canada had at one time!!!

  50. I looked at vote totals for the 90 nuisance candidates, and they are a non-factor, ranging from zero to 25 votes (at random probably). It’s some sort of protest against FPTP voting.

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