It’s Probably Nothing

6 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

1. Shirley you must be joking.

2. The problem with shorting is that it’s not enough to be right. You have to be right at the right time. Timing is everything.

   But I wonder WHY Burry is so bearish.

3. There’s a difference between a stock market collapse and an economic collapse, althought they often go hand in hand.

   If the stock market collapses but the economy doesn’t, I’m not too worried. I (mostly) hold solid dividend-paying stocks which are worth having even without a market for them.

   1. The value of my dividend stocks dropped 18% from 12 months ago. The dividends keep coming in at a good rate. Perhaps one should consider buying more dividend stocks, just a matter of timing at near or at the low point. Or are we heading towards total economic collapse? What to do, what to do. So far, I feel like a deer caught in the headlights of a transport truck.

4. As someone once commented; “Michael Burry has correctly predicted 12 of the last three recessions.”

5. I tried to find when his put options expire, and how leveraged they are, and whether he has significant holdings of the stock he has purchased put options on. (If he owns the particular stock and the value does drop the gains from the put offset (to a degree) the lost value of the owned shares. So I found this article:
   https://marketrebellion.com/news/trading-insights/no-michael-burry-didnt-risk-93-of-his-portfolio-on-put-options/
   Most revealing is that he may sell his put options before they expire (they may already have done) potentially at a higher premium; and since there’s such a big splash he may have created the environment for success by freaking a lot of options traders out.
   (European markets don’t allow resale of put options.)
   (Also there is a statistically reliable slump in the markets August – September, per “experts.”)