Big Arrow War

Putin 64 Comments

A thread by Scott Ritter;

For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.

Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver. […]

The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it’s numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.

Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.

While this complex operation unfolded, Russia needed to keep Ukraine from maneuvering its numerically superior forces in a manner that disrupted the Mariupol operation. This entailed the use of several strategic supporting operations—feints, fixing operations, and deep attack.

Plausible.

More on that here.

64 Replies to “Big Arrow War”

  1. If you believed any of the crap that’s floating around about how inept Putin and his generals have been then you deserve to be lied to. If he was really that inept he wouldn’t have been able to hold power for as long as he has. Anyone with even the most rudimentary knowledge of the Russian armed forces could see that most of the destroyed tanks and equipment was no where near to being considered top of the line. It would be like having the new US supercarrier only flying F4 Phantoms and the odd Tomcat.

    1. In case it has escaped your attention Putin keeps firing his generals (i.e., those that Ukrainians do not make good permanently) so even Pootin must think they are inept. Because they are.

      “Anyone with even the most rudimentary knowledge of the Russian armed forces could see that most of the destroyed tanks and equipment was no where near to being considered top of the line. ”

      Can’t wait for the next russian Wunderwaffe. What will it be? Armata, Arena, Khrizantema, Su-47, Su-57, MiG-31, MiG 1.42/1.44. SS-N-22, over the last three decades each where proclaimed game changers making all of NATO obsolete … and yet soldats on the ground keep using Cold War ear rust buckets and talking over unencrypted channels.

    2. There is a difference between political power/ability (which Putin has strong evidence of having) and military ability. It is like saying that being an actor gives you skill in global politics or not being a biologist discredits you from defining everyday objects.

      Your argument that the destroyed equipment is not ‘top of the line’ is counter productive and rises questions.

      (it also ignores the fact that there is evidence that ‘top of the line’ equipment IS getting destroyed)

      What people need to remember with military equipment is the ‘new’ equipment doesn’t just ‘unlock’ like a game the moment it first appears. Replacing equipment can take years. When things go badly on the geo political you go to war with what you have, not what you want. Sometimes you have the latest/greatest. Sometimes you suck it up. Occasionally you get a sweet spot where you have been issued new kit but are yet to return the old, and end up getting to deploy with a lot more gear than you technically should be carrying.

      (One of the regiments deployed to the Falklands in 1982 were in the process of being issued replacement GPMGs but hadn’t handed back the old. So they took all the weapons with them based on the logic there was no such thing as too much firepower)

      Sticking to the Falklands example have a look at the list of RN ships. Three generations of missile systems – Sea Slug, Sea Dart, Sea Cat, Sea Wolf. Want another example? WW2. Midway. The Avenger torpedo bomber was in service by that time. The battle was actually the type’s combat debut. Yet the aircraft carried by the three USN carriers? Devastators. For those not familiar with the type or the battle the Devastator was a late 30s design that was aging badly. It was very slow by 1942 standards and forced to carry a torpedo that – at that stage of the war – didn’t work very well. Torpedo Eight lost EVERY single aircraft and the other two squadrons were only slightly better off. No hits scored on the Japanese.

      Being forced to fight with what you have is a thing that happens and will continue to happen.

      So – what do destroy photos of older tanks prove to us?

      That older tanks have been deployed by the Russians and have been taking combat loses.

      That is pretty much it.

      Does it prove Russia is using more modern tanks? No. Not directly.

      Does it prove the more modern equipment is proof against enemy weapons? No. Not directly.

      It may SUGGEST some of these things, but as a single piece of evidence it only proves that ‘old’ tanks et al have been deployed and have been destroy. Nothing else.

  2. Scott Ritter? Convicted pedophile? That guy?

    LOL

    Russians with attitude
    Jenna Ellis
    Scott Ritter

    All in the last day or so. Scraping the bottom of the barrel I see.

    1. alla ASS
      “All in the last day or so. Scraping the bottom of the barrel I see.”
      so that’s were you live, in the bottom of the barrel. Why don’t you back to using unDork/LAS moniker?
      Typical lefty response, NO substance, just an attack to try and discredit the messenger.

    2. I apologize. I forgot your trigger warning.

      I suggest you search for “Ghost of Kiev” and “Snake Island” and soothe your angst in more reliable war reporting.

      2. You’re confusing stories that get muddied due to the fog of war with wholly unreliable sources. Go look up some of Scott Ritters other opinions.

        Jenna Ellis takes the cake. Do you not remember the PA “equal protections clause” case that she spearheaded? The one Giuliani took over? It was a joke from the start. I even called it here that it would be dismissed. They sued the wrong defendants among other mistakes that were fatal to her case.

      3. “The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.” – Scott Ritter

        Case in point. Mariupol has not fallen.

        1. Well alla
          Mariupol residents were welcoming the Russian LIBERATORS, bc the azov nazis were using them as human shields, and were torturing those who resisted. You should git better “news” sources!

          1. Such cynical lies. Only Siberian collaborators who should have been expelled from Ukraine decades ago are welcoming the Mongols as liberators. Those civilized have either fled, been slaughtered, sent to gulags or continue resisting, there are still part of Mariupol that continue fighting. Azovs were doing God’s work making russians good.

          2. Lol you’re a sucker. There’s been plenty of fake videos. One is of a woman who is a known Russian propagandist/activist. Do you notice that there’s actual videos.of what the Russians are doing and the other videos are just people talking?

        2. Russian forces now control the majority of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, CNN reported Monday.

          “[W]e are in the hands of the occupiers today,” said Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boichenko in a televised interview on Monday. According to Reuters, Boichenko, who is no longer in the city, also said that Russia’s siege of Mariupol has killed nearly 5,000 people and that 160,000 people remain trapped in the city without clean water or electricity. Mariupol had a pre-invasion population of over 400,000.

      4. “Ghost of Kiev”

        Colonel Oleksandr Oksanchencko aka “Grey Wolf” was a Ukrainain demonstration pilot. An air show performer. He retired in 2018. When Siberian Mongols invaded his coutry he reenlisted. He died on 25th of February when his Su-27 was shot down by an S-400 missile in the skies over Kyiv. Several sources claim that at the time of his death he already had had six air-to-air kills which would make him the first fighter ace of 21st century. Maybe he had less, he would not be the first ace whose initial kill count was overstated.

        “Snake Island”

        Smoke of war, they were presumed dead, now the story is they fought back run out of ammo and were captured. The defenders of Westerplatte were presumed all dead until 1946, turned out only about 15 of the 200 men strong garrison died. Nothing unusual about this.

        1. Snake island was also supposedly leveled. That’s why it was presumed they were dead.

    3. Pedophile? Is that a bad thing to you? I thought you guys liked pedophiles Al? Pardon – I mean Minor Attracted Persons.

  3. Good read, and parallels what I read a Russian General said, concerning their operational status.
    Now I’ll wait for the DIMWITT’s post!

  4. Who would you rather serve under as CIC, Putin or Zelensky?
    The difference is about the same as that between the Turd and Churchill.

  6. You mean the Russians aren’t having their butts handed to them? I’m shocked! Shocked I tell ya! Does this mean Raytheon and McDonnell Douglas etc. won’t be making as much as they hoped (and their pet congresscritters too) or, dragging out, will make even more? They are willing to fight this war to the last Ukrainian, after all.

    1. “McDonnell Douglas ”

      LOL, they do not exists for about two and a half decades now. But don’t let facts get in way of a good rant.

        1. Lockheed Martin then. Colon Cleanser is the kind of idiot who would correct you if you pronounced the t in often and claim that made your point irrelevant.

          1. Now you’re just making shit up, because you’re angry that your inferiority has been pointed out to you. Quit while you’re behind.

      2. That doesn’t change the point but you are a master at missing it. All these weapons are being made by someone. Those someones are making a fortune. Pushing NATO to the east means they must buy more weapons that harmonize with NATO systems. But you’re so smart, even you know that.

        1. No it doesn’t address his point, he doesn’t have a point, his alleged so -called point is stupid and irrelevant, it has been addressed elsewhere on multiple occasions. Do you have a point? Ever? Or are you just good for drive byes? I have yet to see you produce an argument.

          2. Yes, that is the natural evolution of your points. Typical for your side. Sooner all later you reach full Dougie.

        2. Thomas,
          At the risk of making a joke about you not being a Biologist, you clearly have no idea how the Industrial Military Complex works.

          Industry make the equipment for the Customer to provide to the End User. Customer is usually ‘The Government’ and the End User is the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force that the Customer is responsible for.

          Industry make money when the Customer buys.

          They make even better money getting Through Life Support and doing development projects at the Customer’s request.

          Once the equipment is sold and delivered to the Customer the Industry – unless they have a Through Life Support contract – gets nothing. The situation in context is that missiles are being provided to Ukraine by the various Governments. There is next to no through life support on missiles because they are so self contained and the equipment is being provided from the various existing stocks. Industry is only going to make money if the Customer then turns around and tells Industry to start making more to replace those given as aid. Industry do not hold stock. They don’t keep production running on speculation.

          Hard and probably unethical fact is that the Industrial Military Complex works best in times of ‘Uncertainty’. If the governments are ‘uncertain’ what is going on they will spend money to counter perceived risks. If there is Certainly Peace they don’t spend. If there is Certainly War they spend in a different manner and may bring in new laws declaring all military production patriotic duty that must be done free of charge. War also cuts budgets to all the long term projects.

          The Industrial Military Complex don’t want war. They don’t really want peace either. They want the mid to long term threat of conflict that allows them to run long term projects and contracts.

          Ethical? probably not.

          The truth? Yes.

          You want to know the real industry who are bouncing with excitement? Try the MSM. To them this is rolled gold click bait. Headline. Footage. Discussion. Expert Opinion. “Only We have reporters on the ground!”

          Understand how all this works, Thomas. You don’t have to agree, but understand something you disagree with and discussing it honestly will help you present better arguments.

    2. I would rather give billions to Ukrainian soldiers willing to fight the Russians than have hundreds or even dozens of North Americans killed fighting Russia. The Ukrainians are damn good at, too. It is their country.

  8. Cross posted this on Richard North’s Turbulent Times (who is reporting actual military situation stuff). Got a bit of squeaking about Pedo Ad-Hom stuff from comentards (didn’t know about the history) but nothing particularly counter argument. Not my field so don’t know. I just wish they’d all stop before it ends in even more tears 🙁

    1. Turbulent Times has some interesting review of the various media reports and the on-the-ground situation. Much is unclear right now given the Ukrainians re-capturing areas virtually unopposed and the seeming Russian regroup in the east. Certainly isn’t clear at all that the Russians will, or even can, encircle the eastern Ukrainian forces or even if that is their plan even though that’s been assumed in a lot of the reporting from certain quarters. Even less clear is what the Ukrianians will do now as the focus seems to shift eastward.

      This Ritter theory seems far too generous to the Russians as much of the mainstream media reporting has been far too generous to the Ukrainians.

    1. So somebody who can’t even spell “a new” has something useful to say?

      (yes, this is an Ad Hom fallacy, as was yours. Anything to say regarding the substantive issue?)

      1. The narrative must be swallowed whole. Anything that disagrees with the narrative must not be considered. Anyone who questions the narrative is a Russian stooge.

      2. I stated a fact. You could not have handled that so, attacked me. You’re not the first.

        So you’re angry and unoriginal.

        Whatever, many here are desperate to find virtue in Pootin because “globohomo” others are just idiots romanticizing the Siberian horde. I’ve posted countless sources and analysis on this blog. You haven’t bothered to look at any, but a disgraced pedo with a history of simping for sadistic dictators, you embrace, because he says something you want to hear in the first place.

          1. I called Scott Ritter names, not another poster. He made it prosomal. Is it really that hard to comprehend? Again I ask: do you ever have a point, or do you only post to declare your loyalty?

  10. “Plausible.”

    No not at all. They screwed up the initial plans. Sacrificed countless special forces and para units. Got their columns slaughtered, regrouped, and slowly started grinding at the defenders while still suffering disproportional loses. There is no hidden brilliance to this plan, there was no plan. There was gross overestimation of their own strength and underestimation of Ukrainian resolve. How many times did thy try landing at Odessa? They are losing warships to a country with no navy. They lost transports loaded with paras because they forgot to turn off transponders, they dropped paras into freezing water only for the those who did not die from hypothermia to be fished out by Ukrainians. They are talking on unencrypted channels. Etc etc etc Incompetence galore.

    They have since regrouped and painfully advanced trading ground for lives. There is a reason why Pootin keeps firing his generals and arresting his intel sycophants (who told him what he wanted to hear).

    In short: they fucked up everything and are moving on critical mass backed by terror. They got nothing beyond that.

  11. Glad to see some real (Russian) news sources ars finally being cited here.

    That said, reminder that a war with Russia is impossible to win in any meaningful sense, because it would only take a matter of hours, if that, for Russia to annihilate any enemy posing a meaningful threat to Russia’s existence.

    Putin is holding back in hope that the Imperial leadership will come to its senses and cut Zelensky and the Nazis loose.

    He will not wait forever.

      1. COLONRECTUMUS
        ALLA ASS has already graced this thread, so your stupidity doesn’t stand out as much as if he had not been here. A USA retired General assessed the situation much as the article associated with this thread. Butt low IQ fool like you thinks he knows better. Just as with Canada’s military planes needs, the “cop” issues, the political dynamic re; MAX, you strike out so many times, that you just prove your krugger-duning issues, due to your low IQ.

    2. Smalldeadanimals has deteriorated.
      Used to be lots of good, interesting, and intelligent commentary from a conservative angle.
      Now this.

        1. No, it started with Max and his cult hysterically demanding purity, and it reached fever pitch with Pootin. You’re still wrong about Trump, Trump’s appeal is much broader and includes plenty here who neither support Max nor Pootin.

  12. Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia.

    Did that twaddle sound convincing to people, or something? The land bridge is needed to speed the buildup of forces in the south faster than the vulnerable sea bridge between Crimea and Russia can manage. It’s irrelevant for manouver between the southern, central, and northern fronts – they have Russia for that.

    The two fronts Russia has decided to drastically reduce military operations in have one thing in common not shared with the other fronts. They require access via Belarus. It’s quite possible that Lukashenko, who has skillfully avoided sending in his own forces (and retained diplomatic relations with Ukraine), has decided that the Russians have shat it and is inviting them to start packing.

    If this is all a big clever Russian ruse then the place to watch is Kharkiv. The Russians can’t destroy Ukraine’s eastern military without getting in behind them in force. Because of lack of infrastructure they need to come in from Belgorod for that and then they need Kharkiv’s roads and hubs. It’s no suprise that the Ukrainians hit an ammo depot near Belgorod today.

  14. What I don’t understand is Ukraine on a diagonal is about as wide as Calgary to Edmonton on – but Russia can’t take that country?

    Yeah I think we give too much credit to Russian army, I read even the truck tires are old and blowing out.

    1. Worse than old. The trucks need to be started every month or so to get the Central Tire Inflation System to pump up the tires or the sidewalls break from load. When you start driving on them the sidewalls break. Russian Army turns out to be utterly incompetent. Let us hope their ICBM maintenance is similarly up to par.

  17. Wow a whole thread of mental illness on display.

    No point of discussion on this one, I suppose that was the point of the trolls in the first place.

    Well good luck on changing anyone’s opinions on the conflict, or getting to any truths, y’all made no friends or converts with your flame-wars here.

    1. Wait, you’re telling me an anonymous guy calling himself Colonista who trolls blogs may not have the perfect knowledge of a warzone he claims? Or that other random pollsters extolling the military genius of Putin may be wrong?
      I don’t believe you….

      1. Can you point me to one example, just one, where I claimed to have “a perfect knowledge of a warzone”, any warzone will do. A floor is yours. Do go on.

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