It’s Probably Nothing

It's Probably Nothing Wuhan Flu 67 Comments

Lancet;

Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the economic impact of viral spread. Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for individuals; hence governments must put in place measures to ameliorate the inevitable economic downturn. In our view, COVID-19 has developed into a pandemic, with small chains of transmission in many countries and large chains resulting in extensive spread in a few countries, such as Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan.
 
Most countries are likely to have spread of COVID-19, at least in the early stages, before any mitigation measures have an impact.

Related: To close, or not to close? In short, we face a variant of the old medical adage that in the early stage, diseases are easy to treat but hard to diagnose, while in the later stages they are easy to diagnose but hard to treat.

67 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

  1. Bongo is contemplating compensation for those who are off work.

    How about those who had to cancel their cruise? Or maybe those who run outa TP?

    It’s the Canadian way. Government looks after you from the erection to the resurrection

  2. I want to like the chart. However, reading the fine print shows that there is no reason to think reality will be anything like the chart due to all of the listed known unknowns (couched in scientific jargon).
    English translation: Things may get worse, then get better, we hope.

    1. Was the chart drawn by Global Warmist True believers? People who build charts on computer models they also built … that never come true? Sorry, but more relevant than the chart is the written passage …

      … COVID-19 has developed into a pandemic, with small chains of transmission in many countries and large chains …

      So far … all I’ve seen are VERY small chains … of limited exposures. If those chains remain small (as they appear to be in America) … then this will all be OVER!! very quickly.

  4. Just wait until this rips through the zombie population, aka, the homeless dirges in San Fran, Seattle, Portland, etc

    An unexpected solution to the homeless problem…….as these are already a health compromised population. ……and completely unmanageable, as a group……

    1. Dan…I can’t say i disagree with you.
      It will likely decimate those poor folks – yea I know, most are junkies-crack heads etc…but there’s thousands who arent..and in the end it just doesn’t matter what their situation is. Dead is dead.

      Ultimately very SAD all way round.

      A Problem created in my opinion via the so called WAR on DRUGS..one that has won the odd battle but is destined to ALWAYS Lose the WAR. I think it’s time for sentient folks to look at the Successes in Portugal – who legalized ALL drugs……and took the money from the so called war and spent it on rehab and creating jobs for those rehabilitated.

      All we do now is empower Police departments (& govts), to become your local DELTA Force. Armoured personnel carriers, heavy weapons…like seriously.??

      1. The drug addled will be wiped, but not all the homeless, though I would disagree about the number of pure honourable sober homeless, those numbers are small. Even the mentally ill are heavily self medicating on street drugs……unmanageable is the term.
        It’s not wishing harm on them, rather it seems an inevitable outcome, unless Gavin Newsome and Nanny want to lay their hands on them and SAVE them…..

        1. They will flood the emergency rooms when ill, and there will be no room when the responsible people need hospitalization.

    2. Hope springs eternal!?

      I have to admit how much I marvel at nature’s resiliency. The Caribbean completely CLEANSED itself of the massive BP oil spill. I expect Nature is more than capable of CLEANSING the Bay Area of the indigent population (and hopefully) all those who put them there … and kept them there.

  5. I frankly don’t know what to believe, but it sounds like South Korea’s outbreak has slowed, assuming of course that they’re not fudging the numbers. That would seem to indicate what might be a good sign of the effectiveness of advanced democracies’ efforts in successfully addressing the problem. ***fingers crossed***

    1. Although it is a nascent democracy the SK’s are group thinkers with a hierarchal society. You can’t tell the boss he’s flying low and you can’t not tell the boss he’s flying low.
      They do what they’re told and don’t ask questions so it works out well for contagion control.

      1. Yep and that Culture idiocy is what caused a Korean Airliner back in the 80’s to Fly right into a Mountain in Broad Daylight…co-pilot so conditioned as to not QUESTION his supposed Superior.

        That was the start of the Great Ex Pat Pilot “world wide program”….

      2. “They do what they’re told and don’t ask questions so it works out well for contagion control.”

        My experience with Asians is that they smile, nod their heads in agreement, and then keep right on doing their own thing.
        No, they don’t ask questions. They would be losing face if they did.
        That’s why they have university educations by the time they graduate from High School.
        As an adult, if they don’t pretend to already know everything, it’s a loss of face.
        If you correct an Asian, they lose face. If you tell them they’re doing something wrong, they lose face.
        They will lie and cheat, maybe even do violence, to avoid losing face.

        1. Ooz, you now taking strapon’s place, I’v worked with Asians, and did not find what you say, fact they were better educated than I am, but they, deferred to my decisions quite readily, a lot of you fools in here should put yer broad brush down, and gain some real world experience, BEFORE honking off. Now Italians , there you have a demographic who know everything about everything!
          And still there are many Canadians of Italian heritage that are different from their general demographic.

  6. ……I’m feeling right now like i’m coming down with something. Sneezed a few times today, feeling kind of tired. Not sure if it’s corona, but somebody in the next town over where I live in South Jersey currently has it. If that’s the case, and I die, I just want Kate to know that I really loved her blog, and that I’ve also enjoyed you commenters these last few years. I’ve come to love Canada even more by reading this blog. ***wipes tear from eye***

  8. An apocalypse, with a traitor-only, 100% corrupt government. What could be worse?
    How about, before our numbers will be reduced, we pay a visit to the turd dough and replace him and his crooked cronies?

  9. I think you can be confident in South Korea and Italy. SK was very aggressive, the country was turned into a ghost town.

    Throw Iran and the rest of the ME out the window, it’s epidemic there. Does anyone really believe Iran has thousands of cases, while Iraq is in the double digits?

    China, that’s hard to know. They know the spotlight is on them, but I’ve seen twitter stuff that suggests widespread civil unrest, so there may be reasons to under report for internal consumption alone. That jives with their new tactic of blaming the US and Japan for starting the virus. But they did lock down those areas as tight as a drum however, so it’s also logical to believe it worked.

    1. One could only hope that ‘Civil unrest” spreads to the ChiCom Army… and leads to the Destruction of the CCP. Somehow I don’t think thats gonna happen, but would love to be surprised.

    2. China’s daily new infection rate appears to be quite low.
      The number of those who haven’t recovered is about 17,000.

      Nobody panic but lets close the whole thing down.

      I dropped by for a looky-loo. There is toilet paper at my local Canadian Tire.

    3. Within the area of contact of my wife’s father, there’s been nothing to report, other than temporary bouts of isolation and public exhortations to proper hygiene. Obviously, he wouldn’t be able to report on any probable unrest, assuming he had the interest in finding any, and he’s hundreds of kilometres away from the epicentre.

      The numbers reported internally match the numbers reported externally, as far as I can tell, within a small margin of error. Once the authorities “corrected” for their understated earlier reportage. If the numbers are anywhere close to accurate, the outbreak is slowing down, even in Hubei. It was a brutal quarantine, but it does appear to have done the job. If the authorities there hadn’t mishandled the thing at the start, this would barely have been newsworthy outside of China as a localized disease outbreak, not even an epidemic.

    1. Good point. When commenting on the extensive spread in a few countries, such as Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan, one has to wonder how bad it is in N. Korea. Officially I don’t doubt they say they don’t have any cases due to the purity of communist society.

      2. They have plenty of cases but they are not allowed to die from it. If they die it is because of insufficient faith in Dear Leader. Serves them right, traitors.

  11. Prevention would have been easy. A cure is probably now impossible.

    Children are the reservoir. All any western government had to do was suspend all students whose parents were born in or had ever lived in China from public schools until Beijing saw fit to lift the quarantine at home or the parents could supply two negative tests for the virus, conducted by a non-Chinese doctor. What? Shortage of tests? Tough. Get in line behind the actual Canadians.

    They did not do this because the ENTIRE Overseas Chinese community in EVERY city would have taken to the streets screaming “THATH WASSIS” through every megaphone they could beg, borrow or steal.

    The Overseas Chinese could not care less that their little emperors and empresses had given their little friends Wuhan virus and signed the death warrants of the white kids’ grandparents.

    Tell me who’s above the laws of the land and of common decency, and I’ll show you who your masters are. And it’s not the “Zionists.”

    1. Control, would have also been much easier if pansy globalist supporters had allowed tight travel bans and restrictions.

      Tracking and quarantines become far more effective when you reduce or eliminate the biological dumpage on a country.

  12. This could be a real African wildfire. If it’s rampant in the Middle East, it’s a no doubter in Africa

    1. Yeah, it could be horrific there, them not having the infrastructure and advanced medical system that the developed world has. They got the worst of AIDS and now they’ll get the worst of this.

  13. CTV just reported that Air Canada is stopping all flights from Italy because of the kung-flu, but still flying the Iran/China runs I gather..

        1. Doesn’t stop them from transiting via a third country, thats how its still coming in.

          Nice huh? The Chinese don’t respect anybody

          1. Correction accepted. However, they have no flights scheduled between TO and Tehran until August, and it’s still not clear if the flights are AC direct or through code-share or partner airlines. I didn’t try to navigate that info beyond that. My stated belief was due to some of the reportage I remember hearing around the Ukraine Air disaster, and why so many people use it, and I was too lazy to confirm it. 😀

  14. “Boom, Bust and Echo.”

    Read the book, by David Foote, back in the 90s.

    I’m trying not to comment ’round here, because Western Canada is way too angry at the moment.

    1. Just FYI: The name of the university and hospital is JOHNS Hopkins. (I saw it stated wrongly in a major MSM news report today. Not surprised.)

  16. Huwan virus – the perfect excuse for ALL governments to immediately cease ANY further funding of ALL catastrophic AGW hysteria and to dedicate those resources to virus-related medical research and treatments.

  18. Italy is clipping along at 6% death rate (631 deaths out of 10,131 cases). Why? What did South Korea do to keep the spread and death rate so low?

    1. Korea has no significant ethnic minorities. Hence, “thass wasiss” didn’t work as an excuse to refuse to obey the dictates of health departments and common decency. People were expected to get tests and self-isolate if they were positive, and did.

      The patient zeroes in Korea were members of a cult who had visited China (to lick the arse of the Buddha or some such) and then lied about it to the gentiles. The authorities did not suffer their version of taqiyya gladly either.

    2. Italy has the oldest average population in Europe, the highest percentage of elderly. The elderly death rate is veddy veddy bad. That’s why Italy is higher.
      Its not the strain. That’s why when it hit the care home in Seattle, so many died, so quickly.

      1. Dan, Italians have piss poor hygienic attitudes, especially the men
        Iranians also suffer for poor hygienic attitudes amongst males, this would also contribute to the rapid spread there

    3. Saw this on twitter. Don’t know how reliable the numbers are.

      Italy’s deaths by age:
      2.8% 50-59
      8.4% 60-69
      32.4% 70-79
      42.2% 80-89
      14.1% 90+
      Average age: 81

      Italy’s deaths by pre-existing conditions:
      15.5% 0 or 1 condition
      18.3% 2 conditions
      67.2% 3+ conditions

  19. Speaking of probably nothings:
    Death rate* in Italy = 6.2%
    Questions? 168 died today. Wasn’t it supposed to be less than 1%, then 2%, then 3.4%? Right. How is that “not panicking” working out for you?

    *and this is using the more generous formula i.e #of deaths / # of cases.

    1. As more cases outside China and Iran are recorded we are begging to see the official global death rate climb. It is no longer 3.4% it is now 3.6%. Expect the trend to continue. Nothing to see here, move along. http://www.covid-19canada.com

    2. COLON, try context for once in yer life.

      BTW, I have that tonne of shit paper for you!!!

      1. It is ok, you don’t have to compulsively bark something stupid and irrelevant every time you see my post. Try reading with comprehension and just moving on. It would probably help your development if you mastered that skill.

  20. China Threatens to Withhold ALL MEDICAL EXPORTS: “The United States will fall into the hell” of a Wuhan Coronavirus Epidemic

    Having our medical imports cut off at any time would be extremely threatening to the well-being of many Americans. But having it occur in the midst of an outbreak that China allowed to start and to spread would be nothing short of catastrophic.

    I previously wondered if Wuhan was a sacrificial city in China’s efforts to stop the spread of the virus. But this makes me wonder if they ever intended to stop it all along. As they (allegedly) recover from the Covid-19 outbreak, the US and many other countries are just beginning to fight the spread. Was the sacrifice of Wuhan actually even darker than suspected?

    Is it possible that a global spread of a virus that many believe to be bioengineered was the plan all along? Would a country make a virus the first wave of an attack on that would be followed by the withholding of medical supplies?

    Out of the multitude of conspiracy theories that have arisen surrounding this virus, at least one part of this comes directly from an official channel in China: the possibility of a retaliatory withholding of medical supplies during the most crucial point of the outbreak in the United States.

    https://www.theorganicprepper.com/china-withhold-medical-exports/

    1. “China Threatens to Withhold ALL MEDICAL EXPORTS: “The United States will fall into the hell” of a Wuhan Coronavirus Epidemic”

      When they do so it needs to be considered use of weapons of mass destruction. Nuke’em to glass. Then nuke’em again.

        2. The good news is the US owes $1.3 trillion to ChiComs.

          “If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”
          J. Paul Getty

      2. That would have been an excellent idea in November, or any month in the last 30 years.

        Baldly put, the coronavirus is a weapon of mass destruction, and this was an act of terror.

        The lockdown in the Middle Kingdom only began in earnest when the Politburo could rest assured that patient zeroes were safely arrived in the Overseas Chinese communities of the western world.

        Because doing anything to control the movement of Chinese is wassis, nothing was done in the west until preventing a pandemic was impossible.

        “Only” a few thousand Chinese have (allegedly) died. Millions of North Americans may die, the majority of whom would probably have voted to re-elect President Trump. (The virus will generally spare military-age ghetto and barrio trash.) Industrial-scale Arkancide.

        The media are falling over themselves to blame Donald Trump for the election-year plague.

        The worse it gets, the better the chance of Beijing replacing President Trump with the senile Joe Biden and their old pals in the Clinton crime family—whose only regret will be not thinking of this first.

        It’s the work of an evil genius.

  21. The minister of Health in the UK has coronachan now. I’d say chances are good the PM of the UK has been exposed. Not sure how often he meets the Queen but she might have it too.

  23. Marc, AC’s stu’s are so ugly and old, that many places will not let them land, in case ugly is contagious:-)))))

  24. Over at instapundit they talk about Chinese fogging their cities.
    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/357884/

    In one of the links they mention that the virus doesn’t survive on surfaces for long. That exactly contradicts pretty. much everything I read tonight.

    Time will tell (as he pushes elevator buttons with his elbows).

  26. Most countries are likely to have spread of COVID-19, at least in the early stages, before any mitigation measures have an impact.
    Yep. Too late for preventative measures. In my area they are closing county schools for 1 day to train and plan for an actual closure and remote education in the future. Again, too little, too late. Schools are your basic Petri dishes. It seems no one understands a 14+ day asymptomatic incubation and transmission period. Better to just close them for 6 weeks and pick up where you left off. Require a mask and demonstrably fresh nitrate or latex gloves before entry into any public area. Eliminate foreign travel. Age 65+ to self quarantine as much as possible. No public gatherings, no public transport.

    Well that won’t happen before thousands in any given area are sickened. It will be N. Italy all over again. And again. And again.

Proudly powered by WordPress & Skyrocket Themes

MENU

Navigation