Oh. My. What are we CPC members thinking?
Related Nanos and the PDF. The sample sizes are small but in a nutshell: O’Leary is strong in the Prairies and Ontario, Chong beats Raitt in the Atlantic, Bernier is strong in Quebec and sits in second or third everywhere else. An interesting question in the survey asked the likely-hood of voting for or against a non-bilingual candidate. The determinate responses were split 33/33.
and the alpha dawg takes it…
here Kellie, Kellie, Kellie
Martin is a hack who should have retired his smug A$$ years ago.
In a nutshell these are the key points:
1 . it is a ranked ballot. Being on the fringe of the party is not a winning strategy
2. It is 50 plus one in each riding
3. the winner has to win a majority of the 338 ridings
4. Bernier, due to point #2, is going to win virtually all of the Quebec seats – 78 thus he needs only 91 of the remaining 260 to win. Any rival would have to win 65% of the ROC to win.
5. Bernier has consistently gotten the most donors and is at the top in total fundraising.
6. Those who aren’t picking o’leary as their number one aren’t very likely to have him a their number 2
7. Fiscally Bernier is a conservative’s conservative
8. Bernier is much better known within the party than he is in the general populace.
It is Bernier’s to lose at this point
Oh It’s a junk poll BTW – a survey of Canadians on the CPC leadership is as relevant as Hillary getting more of the total vote than Trump
O’Leary would be a god damned disaster. The man is not Trump, not even close. Really low energy. Sad.
Complete agreement with all of your points, Gord. I’d add, though, that Bernier sitting in 2nd/3rd in the ROC all but guarantees the outcome because of the 50% run-offs.
There’s a distinct anybody but O’Leary|Leitch|Chong feeling which will really push Bernier outside of Quebec. The former two are why I added the bit regarding bilingualism question.
It will be interesting to see the Trump supporters who cheered for the Electoral College, cry about the 338 if O’Leary gets more total votes.
Having said that, we’ve seen what conventional wisdom means.
Conservatives have good mainstream (bunch of loser liberals in blue suite) options to choose from, such as Lisa Raitt, Mr. Chong and Erin O’Toole.
Well, if Lawrence Martin says so, it must be liberal horseshit. Guess what, a Liberal thinks a good Conervative party leader would be a Liberal.
Conservative leadership candidate Michael Chong said today he will vote in favour of Motion 103
http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/14/chong-plans-to-vote-for-islamophobia-motion/
“Good mainstream options”
You have to grin at that oxymoron. ….and piss yourself laughing when you realize he’s talking about Chong, Raitt, and O’Tool.
Any Conservative that votes in favour of Motion 103 will never get my vote for anything including dog catcher.
Chong as leader of the Conservative Party? Is Elizabeth may unavailable? Good lord. Lawrence martin is a head case, and please refrain from linking to him in the future. The east does not care about what the west may want. They just want bragging rights and all of out tax money. To them the only good Conservative is a liberal.
It’s getting to the point that Canada has created such a divide that only two nations would suffice.
It’s getting to the point that Canada has created such a divide that only two nations would suffice.
I’m not familiar with that Indian band.
Lawrence Martin is , oh forget it, he’s not worth the bandwidth.
Speaking of Chong for leadership, he’s the last on my list and is anything but Conservative, he’s Michael Chong period.
From the linked story…
“Kevin O’Leary, Michael Chong, Maxime Bernier and Lisa Raitt are the most politically appealing Conservative Party leadership candidates to Canadians, according to a new Nanos survey.”
I would say it matters not who is most appealing politically to most Canadians but who is the most appealing politically to Conservative Party members of each riding, who actually vote to decide who will lead them into the next election. When they do a poll of actual Conservative Party members, let me know.
Spot on James! I second your sentiments and add “weasel” to his character traits. Make that “sneaky weasel”.
Have been holding back my Commitment to Conservative Party (Donation sent to Leitch) until it is Positive that LIBERAL Mole Chong is not a winner and not likely to become part of Shadow Government.
Due to the Best Election Ever in the US, I have stayed well out of paying attention to the conservative race but my two cents:
Races should not be years long. When is this thing over? When does it begin? Any excitement?
Leitch is the most hated from the press. Bonus points.
Chong most favored by press. Automatic elimination.
Kevin O’Leary is an a**hole, bonus points.
Kevin O’Leary is just visiting, lost his bonus points.
Kevin O’Leary is an a**hole, bonus points re-awarded.
No clue what most of them stand for.
Rona Ambrose should have run.
It is the incompetent boy primee minister trudeau, we should feel like we have a chance.
This conservative leaders race has all the earmarks of being a bigger disaster than the last election. If Kevin O’Leary is selected then there has to be a resignation somewhere for him to run in a by-election before the next general election. That being said I don’t think that there is a safe riding for him anywhere in the country, after his soldiers/peacekeepers comment. Especially now that Trump is called all the chits in for defence spending. Bernier isn’t going anywhere outside of Quebec, Western Canada has had its fill of government heads coming from Quebec, if Bernier comes in first there will be a lot of conservatives that will stay home in the next election. As for the rest, it’s a dog and pony show, nobody with the backbone to come out and commit themselves to Canadian values because we have been wandering in the desert so long we no longer know what Canadian values are. The multicultural, caring, tolerant society that has been spoon-fed to us for the last thirty to fifty years has left us bereft of the self-reliant, responsible, hard-nosed individuals that used to be recognized as having leadership qualities. Today we are left with a bunch of simpering, pandering, pleading sycophants that promise the great unwashed everything for their vote just to get back at the trough.
Antenor said, “Bernier isn’t going anywhere outside of Quebec, Western Canada has had its fill of government heads coming from Quebec, if Bernier comes in first there will be a lot of conservatives that will stay home in the next election.”
This is fantasy. Guess what two provinces have been most lucrative for Bernier.
I’ve been saying for years that Quebec and the West have much more in common than not, primary being the desire for Ottawa to take a long walk off a short pier. Bernier is the only guy in the race with the potential to rebuild Mulroney’s coalition.
I will take door number 23 then. Don’t want Mulroneys coalition, his partners were backstabbing traitors.
Bernier is quite libertarian and is tilting at windmills in the heart of socialist canada. He can’t bring those partners as he would have to dance with them, as Mulroney famously said.
The only thing that Quebec and the West have in common is Transfer payments. The West gives and Quebec takes.
It would be interesting to see how Bernier handles transfer payments if he wins the nomination and goes on to defeat Trudeau. The only way Bernier could win is to win Quebec big. How could he turn around and shut off the transfer payment tap?
Conservative leadership candidate Michael Chong said today he will vote in favour of Motion 103
G’bye, Mikey, it’s been good knowin’ ya. (Pssst! I hear the NDP’s looking for a new leader. You might try there.)
Not true. Bernier has considerable support in the west. Do action stats prove it. I doubt very much if you have read or heard any of his policy positions.
“It may have saved the country: had the anglophone Mr. Clark led the 1980 referendum fight instead of Mr. Trudeau, the separatists might have won.” Martin
Hmm he has that right. If Quebec would have separated, Canada would have had to form a fairer Confederation.
Kellie Leitch just needs a vision to unify Canadians as Canadians.. Not More BS Status quo
She also needs a Trump issue that will draw the FIRE of all the idiots, and 90% of the talking heads
Sell the CBC to private Broadcasters. CBC Toronto could be sold to Ontario (They are the editorial Voice of Ontario) Real value of the real estate & vaulted intellectual property
Sell CBC Montreal to Quebec.. (They are the editorial voice of Quebec)
The rest of Canada just supplies CBC with content(News items) but they have zero editorial input…
The CBC is a Canadian Problem…Deal with it
You are completely wrong. Do some reading on the politics of the beauce region for example.
And yet watching OLeary eviscerate Turdopey would be priceless. Yet it could also evoke sympathy for the immature Spud, especially if he tears up like ChrysTEE AH
Still can’t comprehend how or what Chong is doing in this race, let alone being, apparently, in the top 4. Says a lot about Ontario and Ontario ‘conservatives’. How does an NDP mole remain competitive in this race?
I do like Maxime Bernier, however he will not defeat Trudeau. Only O’Leary can do that!! So we’ll have to make the choice. Vote for Bernier and watch Trudeau slide into home base for four more years. Or vote for O’Leary, and win!!
I’m with O’Leary, and yes, this is all about winning.
Kelly Leitch??
Her lisp is enough to drive a guy to voting Liberal!!
based on what evidence?
We can squabble over the merits of the various candidates as much as we like, but one thing is certain. Any one of them would be better than that twit and party in office right now.
Except for Chong. DanBC called Chong an NDP mole and that would be about right.
One has to remember that Lawrence Martin is a Liberal mouthpiece of the Laurentian Elite and his bias would lean toward someone acceptable in the Gateneau Hills.
“Any one of them would be better than that twit and party in office right now.” Any one of them may be better but, big but, at the moment none of them is as marketable as what Lil Tater Head is, and the internecine fight that is going on under the guise of a leadership race is going to split the party even more. Saner heads should have kept this race down to two or three aspirants, as it is the CPC look like a combination of the Cheech and Chong show teamed up with the Three Stooges to meet the Keystone Kops. Then again saner heads would have run an election campaign on the many miscues of the Liberals and Justin rather than that sick “Nice hair though.” When you try to appeal to everybody your marketability goes down. The Liberals did not win the last election on policy they won it on the brand name Trudeau, and that was created by the press on the first go round. For all the broken promises and the backtracking of the Liberals the CBC and the rest of the MSM will convince the average voter to vote for the Liberals again in 2019. Think it won’t happen, then you’re not paying attention. Obama should never have gained a second term, but he did. If Trump hadn’t come along Hillary would be sitting in the Oval office today. Trump galvanized the grass roots by telling them what they already knew and that was the country was in a pickle. He didn’t promise them unicorn pharts and pixie dust. The Brexit referendum was another instance in that Farage had the fortitude to tell it like it is and convince the general population what they already knew, against a determined effort to browbeat the population by an immoral press and media. Until someone in the CPC tells it like it is and the general population realize the mess we’re in and recognizes the truth then we’re looking at a whole lot of hurt. I’d like to be proven wrong here but I think the average Canadian voter is too stupid to see that the writing on the wall is papered over by the Liberal propaganda machine.
“I do like Maxime Bernier, however he will not defeat Trudeau. Only O’Leary can do that!!”
Really. Well I’ll never vote for O’Leary.
I like a lot of what Bernier is saying.
And yes, it is about winning. So if the wrong leader of CPC (Chong, Raitt, et al) ends up becoming PM were are no better off than with Trudeau. Which means we lost.
Bernier is the only candidate that even sounds like a conservative. as reluctant as I am for another PM from Quebec I would support the conservatives under Bernier.
why not make that any politician that votes for it from any party?
“…the Liberal propaganda machine.”
Make no mistake there is a Liberal MSM propaganda machine and Lawrence Martin is a big part of it. It is sad that Canada does not have a media segment that is non Liberal. The Liberals control it all.
O’Leary can’t beat Trudeau in 2019. Bernier can’t, Leetch can’t, Chong certainly can’t. Nobody can. Trudeau’s a lock for majority reelection unless he literally gets hit by lightning. He is too damned “likeable”, and the Canadian electorate is too superficial to see past it. That likeability won’t wear off in time for 2019.
The next CPC leader is either a sacrificial lamb or must be committed to a 5+ year stint as Opposition Leader before having a real crack at Trudeau. This is why O’Leary mustn’t and shouldn’t win. He won’t have the stomach to sit powerless in the Commons for that long, and will be pushing 70 by the time a real opportunity to take down the nitwit arises.
After my post last night I find a small glimmer of hope this morning. Perhaps just perhaps we Canadians are finally cluing in.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/cnw/release.html?rkey=20170214C7293&filter=5611
As a long term conservative I am sitting this one out. The Party has done nothing to correct what happened in the last election. I see no philosophical process that involves the membership. The CPC is once again a top down management and that is why we started Reform.
I would put forward the idea that Turdeau turfed electoral reform because he could see the CPC imploding as ongoing and therefore not a threat. He will skim conservative support and weak Dipper support and yes comeback with a stronger majority. The only thing that changes that is a economic collapse which is the only way I see a return to conservative values.
every riding gets 100 points.
each candidate will be awarded a point for every % of the vote they get from that riding.
The Spawn will lose his luster over time as events and failure overtake his ability to paper-over reality with “ahs” and mindless feel-good rhetoric. He will be forced to increase taxes as the economy stagnates thus accelerating the decline. The Ghost of Christmas Past (the debt) will eventually haunt him. He will have to choose between bending for Trump on a whole host of issues and getting hammered from the left and media (redundant, I know) or watching Canada decline economically and getting hammered from the conservatives and increasingly disgruntled masses.
Bernier is ideologically preferable to the other candidates but in a parliamentary system he has to have support from caucus. I’m not sure that most of the Conservative MPs are capable of getting behind him. Party discipline mostly consists of the carrot and or stick of the overly numerous silly-walks ministries and their Ministerial appointments. That makes it tougher on a libertarian oriented PM who would likely want to, and should, eliminate half of them.
Yes; it is time to discuss the real reality. Quebec is a Separate Country.
This is the referendum all of Voting Age Canadians, including Quebecois, should vote on a simple Yes Or No. {Quebec is a Separate Country}.
The let the negotiations begin on who wants Ottawa.