Economist Moffatt, who stress-tested the fiscal numbers in the Liberals’ election platform, said if nominal GDP growth returned to a more-normal level in the coming years — of about 3.5 or four per cent — then the government could probably run deficits up to $25 billion without pushing the ratio up.
Where are we going? HIGHER!
Government promulgates its intention to subjugate Canadians to higher taxes and environmental restrictions to shut down oil sands and the economy tanks….who’dve thunk it?
Of course some asked whether the 10 B was a floor, a ceiling, or a target if circumstances were different from what the predicted, which was 2.4% average growth for 4 years they were in office. The answer apparently, was a ceiling.
The depth of the questioning of the Liberal plan was light. I blame the Conservatives and the media. The Conservatives knew better but had other issues they wanted to wedge and the media just swallowed Liberal assurances whole.
Now we are going to en up in a high tax, high spend environment, the question still remains what if growth isn’t what they expect. For the moment they have said deficits go higher if we grow faster, counter to all the Keynsian orthodoxy we are fed, but nobody is asking them to answer what if the economy doesn’t achieve 2.4% growth?
We all know the answer, its more deficits and more taxes.
The anchor measure they are using is debt to GDP….One that has mightily wrestled down to 35%, which is amazing given that we ballooned it in 2009.
The flaw in the argument is that the government engages in useful spending that will grow the potential of the economy. While that CAN happen, the list of spending of projects, including hotels for refugees, hardly does that. (and that’s says nothing about whether you spend money on housing refugees in hotels or not, focussing on the program misses the policy point, although it does illustrate it nicely) There are lots of other proposals that they are proposing….point is there is no discipline, its kid in candy store time and it will take a few years for the money to run out, maybe….circumstances can change.
The question that isn’t being asked happens when the economy doesn’t do as well. Kate’s answer is correct, its going higher either way. The difficult questions need to be asked, keep asking. Certain realies don’t change, including how the scenarios play out. The PM, like his Dad wants to believe in magical happy path economic theories, ones that don’t trouble him. At some point our Star Wars loving PM will feel a “disturbance in the force”. It isn’t the dark side, its reality tapping him on the shoulder.
$25 billion. We run up that much debt in an afternoon down here.
#definitelynotbragginghere
$25 billion is a golf weekend
Title of CTV article: “Deficit could hit $25B and still honour Liberals’ ‘fiscal anchor'”
But before and during the election campaign, the Liberals never said anything about this “fiscal anchor.” They’re simply making up new, easier goals on the fly, because they don’t know what they’re doing. At least, they’re giving the impression that they don’t know. I think this is one of the reasons (but only one) why we’re seeing so many photo-ops: distraction is crucial.
Of course, no one was holding the Liberals’ feet to the fire during the campaign, even (especially) the Conservatives, who had better become much better at explaining their own strengths and plans and at criticizing the govt. Don’t expect the media to do the criticizing now, though I have to say that Andrew Coyne is showing a refreshing intensity in his dislike of the Liberals’ behaviour so far.
If President Obama can run 1 Trillion dollar deficits for 7 years, then surely Prime Minister Trudeau can run 100 billion dollar deficits indefinitely. Anything less makes Prime Minister Trudeau a sound fiscal genius compared to President Obama.
With a tenth the population, do the multiplication and the ratio is worse. Fracked.
economics 101, just not in the liberal vocabulary. It sure is good that the people who know how to generate wealth have not been completely destroyed. by the time young twadels is finished we will all be finished. it is getting more and more difficult to even think that there is a chance. today the numbers on personal debt were published, every canadaian spends 1.54 for every dollar they make. that folks is not good. as a young man starting out in life and business I was given some good advice, I was told never to let my debt exceed my equity and base my budget on the lowest level of cash flow that I could.
Why would anyone be concerned about budgets when they balance themselves? Of much more importance is flooding the country with refugees many of whom may be opportunists who are jumping the lines to gain Canadian citizenship. The first lot sure didn’t look like people from the camps, well dressed and obviously well fed.
It also leaves our PM to work on his celebrity status with a sexy Vogue photo shoot with his wife.
Who is predicting 3.5-4.0% growth of the economy? Not even the unicorns are that optimistic. The economy is likely to grow by 0.5-1.5% in 2016. Oil is $36. Gold is $1,065. Nat gas is $1.85. These are 10 year lows. Lucky I guess that we’re transitioning from a commodities country to high tech, green energy and manufacturing…
When they start taxing green energy at 30% to pay for social programs you will know that technology is now cost effective.
No one seems to be talking about the other wildcard. What happens if/when interest rates start rising, making our debt and debt-repayments more expensive, and slowing down the economy?
Liberals don’t view the finances of the country in terms of a budget in its traditional definition. How they see it is… they’ve been given the keys to the vault and their management of its contents is purely governed by their obsession with control and power at any expense. Actually, one of them, irritated by a burdensome question, deflected an incursion into the subject, by famously explaining, “the budget will balance itself,” which translates roughly from Liberal-speak to ” let’s talk about my hair again.” If the budget happens not to balance itself, maybe dictatorship is the only answer for turning the economy around on a dime.
“…the government could probably run deficits up to $25 billion…”
Translation:
the government will probably run deficits up to $25 billion
Oh, and as for the Vogue shoot, etc. What do you think the chances are that there will be another baby in the turdo family just to give everyone something to ohhhh and awwwww about. I’m betting on their egos…the little guy across the pond is getting sooooo much attention.
Looks like Orville Wynne is going to cash in on her support for Trudeau by putting Pot in the LCBO’s and rake in the tax revenue.
If ever we needed action by an elected opposition to any government it’s the one we have in Ontario right now, loaded with scandal and arrogance and the beat goes on. IMO the Opps should refuse to sit with them in the Legislature, don’t give them a minute’s peace, maybe we can stir up enough of the population to raise hell. If scandals, corruption and hydro rates don’t do it maybe we deserve what we have.
I just hope Liberal voters who find themselves using a food bank for the first time understand the concept of reap meet sow.
If you voted Liberal or NDP, you should have known what would happen. Live with it.
I just hope Liberal voters who find themselves using a food bank for the first time understand the concept of reap meet sow.
If you voted Liberal or NDP, you should have known what would happen. Live with it.
‘Andrew Coyne is showing a refreshing intensity in his dislike of the Liberals’ behaviour so far’
Where was Coyne over the course of the last few years? Every time I saw him on CBC or read him in NP he was critical of Harper and the Conservatives. We didn’t need a cheer leader but we could have had someone at least a little sympathetic to the Conservative side. His re-discovery of Conservative talking points rings a bit hollow to me now.
Obama has run up $8 Trillion in new debt.
A Progressive with the atonal credit card is like a fat person locked up in a KFC
What’s going to happen when the Debt-to-GDP ratio becomes a little too unwieldy for Mr. Morneau?
What other metric can he pull out to appease?
We’re not as bad as ______ (insert country name here), so don’t worry?
The previous Government did it too?
If he did this at Morneau Shepell, he’d be brought in front of the board pretty quickly to explain himself.
I just can’t wait for “infrastructure” to cure all of Canada’s economic ills. I also can’t wait for just any sign, provincially (Ontario) or federally, that we’re not going to be much worse off in one/two/three/four years, and that my grand kids won’t be saddled with a third world debt load.
I would be surprised if the Liberals managed to keep deficits under 25 billion this year. They are spending like there is not tomorrow.
On another topic….I’d like to see a companion forum that goes along with Smalldeadanimals for political discussion, hunting tips etc. Lots of intelligent people post on here that I learn a lot from and I think could be exapanded upon. Just a humble suggestion.
Liz J:
I commented yesterday how Wynne’s colleagues, unable to design a computer system for welfare recipients, plow snow off highways, or manage air ambulance services, think nothing of spending billions to attempt to manage earth eco-systems. Totally unable to manage mundane provincial duties, efforts are wasted in King Canute like fantasies instead.
Part of the problem is that many Ontarians don’t know what 1 Billion actually is, 1000 million. Inevitable that she would greedily eye marijuana sales as another revenue tool.her proposal would require a cabinet task force to decide who could sell x number of grams in which grocery outlet.Not your grandfather’s Ont.
(From the CTV article)
Government hotel bill for Syrian refugees expected to near $80 million by March
Hotels will also be expected to provide up to three meals a day. “Note that it would be beneficial to Canada, for the contractor to have halal meal options available for refugees,” according to the document (government solicitation notice). It states the government will reimburse up to $15 per person for breakfast, $16 for lunch and $30 for dinner.
Oddly there’s no explanation of exactly how it is “beneficial to Canada” for the hotels to provide halal meals to the refugees. And up to $61 a day for food for one person? The Liberals are back in Ottawa!
It starts with hotels having to serve halal food and then 10 to 15 years down the road we will have Sharia law.
Even if not one single refugee is a terrorist, I am still terrorized when I think about what Canada will become in a few years.
Where will we go…HIGHER…….and when will we stop…NOT TILL WE VOTE ALL THESE SOCIALS OUT OF OFFICE !
“a turnaround of 4.1 per cent growth in 2016, 4.6 in 2017 and 4.4 in 2018.”
That’s compounded to 11.4% total growth. Our dollar was 30% higher just over a year ago. With big spending our dollar won’t be recovering and may well sink further. We’re losing wealth.
Coyne endorsed the Spawn. If he has a problem with the results of the spoiled simpleton poseur now running Canadian Leviathan, he should blame the idiot he views in the mirror.
Anyone who believes nominal GDP growth will return to “normal” rates of 3.5% in the next 3 years is someone who believes buying tickets to the Leafs Game 7 Stanley Cup match is a good investment.
Justin & Butts plan to do to Canada what Dulton, Wynne & Butts did to Ontario.
And what Obama is doing to America.
Because every loan shark knows only really, really smart people can figure out to borrow your way to prosperity.
But..but…$15.00 orange juice!
I agree with this. I think Coyne has outsmarted himself. He (and the rest of the dishonest media) will now live with the consequences. I have stopped reading Coyne as I think he is nothing but a hypocrite. The election is still recent enough that I keep revisiting the misinformation that was propagated by the Liberal friendly media. Of course it did not matter that logic dictated that Conservatives should be given another term (which is why some papers at the 11th hour came out with Conservative endorsements), there was endless emotion-based rhetoric that came out day after day sneering at Conservatives, Duffy, Duffy, Duffy, muzzling scientists, blah blah — while the pundits did not bother trying to provide fair analysis. Now we have a mess — and it is going to get messier.
This is a fair worry. I am less concerned about terrorism per se than I am about chaging the social fabric of Canada. I believe that our sovereignty is already being undermined by globalists interests. I am concerned that many of the Muslims who will come to Canada are anti-Jewish, anti-homosexual, anti-feminist and pro-Sharia. These are important cultural differences. These ideas are not compatibile with Canadian multi-culturalism.
I believe that Coyne in his resignation statement from one of his National Post positions, mentioned voting for the NDP candidate. He resigned because the publisher ordered an endorsement of Stephen harper’s CPC. I don’t think he actually endorsed Jr or the Liberals in his columns,but I could be wrong.
*
“mj says… No one seems to be talking
about the other wildcard. What happens
if/when interest rates start rising…”
what’s everybody freaking out about?
there’s a solution around the corner…
don’t worry… be happy…
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Eventually even the dumbest low information voters, our self appointed elites and academics, will understand the meaning of Kleptocracy.
Although it is very hard for a person to understand reality, when it threatens their pay check.
Of course the Liberals and NDP will double down on taxing and spending.
Their supporters are not victims of the first and do not comprehend the source for the second.
Parasites will never consider the health of the host, until the host staggers and falls.
Then the parasite leaps around seeking fresh blood.
When thieves take more of the return on your labour than you , you learn not to produce.
Even under Harper that lesson was beaten home.
The Spawn and his band of aging henchmen(Same old bandits) will finish the productive class right off.
Look back at the “shortage of skilled labour”, was it real?
Or were too many skilled persons tired of the idiotic OH&S Nazis?
Why work long hard hours, if you reap negative rewards by doing so?
Cash is so much simpler and relaxing, no permits,permissions, regulators and robbers.
Watch the push to restrict cash become even more idiotic.
Steve;
Exactly bang on!
Progressives and conservatives pick their own numbers to make their spending justified.
As you pointed out GDP projections of 4% are not happening and the down side is more likely close to 0.5 to 1%. What a joke.
Eastern Canada justified robbing the west for generations as they spent to build the manufacturing base of Ontario and Quebec. The oil industry in western Canada was not funded by Bay Street but by oilmen from Dallas. That revenue has been carrying this country for over 10 years. The industrial heartland of Ontario has failed the nation and wasted untold amounts of taxpayer dollars.
As the ship goes under the waves these clowns will be fighting over the last chair. The fact that these idiots even get listened to is an indictment of the job that the CPC did over the past 10 years. Absolutely brutal.
Coyne is a contrarian at best and a full time asshole who speaks out of both sides of his mouth… he’s about as “Conservative” as PM Jethro’s bong. An example of Coynes “Conservative” credentials is his declaration that Peeair Trudo was the bestest PM evah. With the exception of the most recent election where Coyne pretended he was going to vote for the citizen of France, Mulhair, Coyne has been endorsing the gangster “Liberals” since 2006, he was very very upset because the conservatives had axed the “long form census” you see. I don’t read the NP any longer, but if Coyne is now critical of Jethro the actor and PM Butts its probably because Coyne went full retard during this past election and is now attempting to recover some credibility by pretending he really is conservative after all, I mean what Conservative doesn’t believe Peeair Trudo to be the bestest PM ever. No one survives in the Canadian Media by being Conservative, but they can survive by pretending to be Conservative, and Coyne is almost as good at pretending as PM Jethro, almost.
I don’t think you have this one right – a miracle will be 25 billion – expect much higher , they have no clue what their programs will cost .
What happens when interest rates go up? Doesn’t that assume that the economy will have to start improve for that to happen?
With Wynne making a major effort to destroy the Ontario economy, Notley taking great glee as the economy of Alberta destructs, the Atlantic province in a perpetual “take care of me” state, Quebec in its continual what’t mine is mine, now give me more of yours and the “deficits take care of themselves” crew in Ottawa, I don’t see the economy of Canada improving for decades to come. That is unless we take the Greek route to prosperity and the interest rates will sky rocket, assuming that there is anyone around to loan us the money.