Full text of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s statement here.
60 Replies to “Crisis in the Ukraine”
I guess the Russian Olympic honeymoon is over?
This is a civil war. http://vg-news.ru/news/20140354074.html We must remember that those who support the current government in Kiev are not the majority. Canada should butt out IMO.
Good for PM Harper for taking a stand.
Russian news. That’s good enough for me.
Civil war, huh? Then what is the Russian Army doing there and why are you getting your information from the Russian government?
A measured and cogent response, reflective of the gravity of the situation.
Cheers
Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
1- President Vladimir Putin says Russian Ice Hockey Men’s team best of the games.
2- America defeats Russian Ice Hockey team because of moving the goal foul,
3- Called by an American referee.
4- Canada steals the Men’s Ice Hockey Gold Medal from Sweden.
5- Russia gets beaten in the Bronze Medal game,
6- then invades the Ukraine.
–
Mr. Putin are you still Pissed?
If I were Putin I wouldn’t give up the Crimea. Long term security is more important than short term populism. Babarak O’bumbles is the living epitome of this philosophical phailure.
The ONLY thing I liked about Reagan was that he bankrupted the commies into the stone age via military spending. Am I wrong now to think that those very commies are now Reagan’s legacy? Are their societal views (not thier societal incursion) not what I thought a mere 30 years ago?
THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONS CAN DO A LOT TO HELP.
“The US and its allies have little leverage over Russia in their efforts to stop an invasion.”
This is a common misconception. There are a lot of things the democratic nations can do. We’re not back in the dark days of the League of Nations anymore.
Here are some options:
– Send US, British, French, Canadian warships to the Black Sea.
– Provide credit for the Ukrainian government to enable them to buy food and other essentials.
– Buy Ukrainian grain, coal, and other products.
– Sell or give older farm equipment to the Ukraine.
– Sell liquified natural gas to the Ukraine, to reduce their dependence on Russian supplies.
– Begin planning US, French, and Canadian nuclear reactors for the Ukraine.
– Expel Russia from international organizations, including the World Health Organization, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization, international banking organizations, the G-22, the G-8, and numerous European organizations. Start with the minor ones and move up the ladder.
– Give the Ukraine provisional membership (observer) status in the European Union.
– Also give provisional membership status in the European Union to Georgia.
– Send military advisers to the Ukraine.
– Set up a lend-lease program to supply weapons to the Ukraine. Western Europe is still overstocked with weapons from the cold war. E.g., Germany has been almost giving away its older Leopard tanks. These are great tanks but Germany has too many.
– Many countries could lend aircraft to the Ukraine. These could include military transports, reconnaissance aircraft, command and control (AWACS) type aircraft, cargo aircraft, and disused civilian airliners. Brazil has some great light and nimble ground attack aircraft.
– Grant provisional NATO status to Georgia.
– Provide relocation allowances for ethnic Russians to move from the Ukraine to Russia.
– Adopt abandoned cold-war era airports in Georgia and equip them as transit points that Israel can use on their way to Iran.
– Undermine the Russian ruble.
– Bomb the palace of president Assad in Damascus.
– If that doesn’t work send them some older nukes from the US, Britain, France, or Canada. The Ukraine gave up their nukes after Russia promised it would not attack or invade the Ukraine.
– Bill Clinton made a mistake when he bailed out the Russian economy in 1998. It was like rescuing a starving Hyena. Once it’s healthy, it will eat you.
The last presidential election in Ukraine was widely viewed as tainted. The government that was elected signed an agreement with Russia extending the lease of their military base in the Crimea, which should be set aside if the coming election can be held with electoral integrity, and a true reflection of what the ukrainians want.
Hopefully the russians can accept this, and not interfere with this process..
Good for Mr. Harper to stand up for what is right, a statesman’s like commentary from him. Too bad our military is grotesquely underfunded while we have such idiocies as “public broadcasting” pissing away a billion each year.
I am reminded at this time of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
History tells us that while the Soviets were in deadly earnest, the Kennedy DemocRats were F-CKING AROUND. They were playing American electoral politics with live nukes, against the Soviet Union. Oh, and John F. Kennedy was stoned out of his freakin’ mind on pain killers and busy chasing skirts when he was concious. Nikita Khrushchev saved us all that day by correctly understanding that the Americans were not behaving rationally, and backed off.
Nikita Sergeyevich “We will bury you” freakin’ Khrushchev saved the world. Kennedy was going to let it burn for advantage in the next election. Because he did not comprehend the gravity of his situation.
Today we have another American president who’s irrational facing another Russian who’s deadly serious. Here’s hoping Putin is as smart as Nikita baby was, because Obama isn’t going to wake up and smell the coffee until the day some foreign soldier pulls him out of a spider hole like Saddam Husein.
Reagan: “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”
Obama: “Mr. Putin, if you invade the Ukraine, I’m going to collapse on my fainting couch, then have one of my corpse-men put my umbrella down to write you a slightly scolding letter.”
Oh yeah, Russia isn’t laughing at ALL.
Why on earth would Harper risk Canada’s annihilation?
To impress Barry with tough talk?
Talk, being the operative word.
Crimea has “belonged” to Ukraine for like 25 years.
It’s population is 60% ethnically Russian, and it’s the location of a MAJOR Russian naval base. The loss of Crimea is an existential threat to Russia.
Russia will NOT EVER let it go.
Harper is an amiable lightweight and a fool.
He did Canadians no favor.
He ought to have kept his mouth shut.
“”We will bury you” freakin’ Khrushchev saved the world.” I disagree Phantom. Krushchev was a lot of bluster and Kennedy called his bluff. Kennedy caused the problem in the first place with his liberal world view thinking he could bargain with the Soviets Gangsters. Kreuhchev misjudged Kennedie’s Military experience and reliance on good advisers.
Krushchev knew he could not sustain a fight 4000 miles from his home ports. The Americans very likely also knew how fragile the Soviet Power was via information from defectors, Jewish-Russian spies and U2 overflights.
The American media in it’s ignorance, made out Kennedy was a gambler, but he likely knew he had the Butcher on the ropes.
The present Russians have been rebuilding their military with quality hardware for 3 decades. They still would not likely be equal to NATO and now don’t have the Ukrainians to use as cannon fodder as they had in Afghanistan in the 80’s.
Putin wouldn’t give a damn what Canada thinks or does. He knows we are toothless with no influence at all, but with a fairly large Ukrainian voting base Harper has to say all the right things. If Putin ignores Obama he sure as hell won’t pay any attention to Harper. Europe won’t interfere either so it’s pretty well a done deal for whatever Putin wants. He wants pre 1991 and there is nothing to stop him.
Just as an add on; there was a gun fight between Ukrainian and Russian Soldiers at a railway stop in the 1950’s. I think the casualties were something like 30+ Russian soldiers.
An indication that the former USSR was not the bastion of strength it was made out to be by our ever Left media and their Fifth Column busy-bodies.
As usual, US “intelligence” services (who seem to be far more interested in the affairs of US generals disliked by Obozo than real foreign intelligence) predicted that the Russians wouldn’t invade. The Crimea is home to the Russian Black sea fleet and is of considerable strategic importance to Russia as it’s their means of projecting force into the Mediterranean. It’s very unlikely that Russia will want the Crimea isolated from Russia proper by a big chunk of hostile Ukrainian territory and thus a land corridor is needed. As is typical in such “non-invasions”, agent provacateurs are inserted into strategic locations and thus we see the “spontaneous” demonstrations against the Ukrainian government in Karkyiv and other heavily Russified cities in eastern Ukraine.
The Russians don’t fool around and at this time we just have mysterious groups of individuals who are heavily armed wearing uniforms with no markings in Crimea but I have no doubt that Putin would have no hesitation in sending an armed column south from Russia to connect up with the Crimean troops. Strategically, this makes perfect sense but the big question is what the Ukrainian military will do.
While large, it would be good to know how well the Ukrainian military has maintained their armored forces, size of ammunition stockpiles and to what extent the Russians have infiltrated the military over the last decade. There appears to have been no opposition by Ukrainian troops in Crimea. I’m curious if the US “intelligence” community knows about how militarily effective Ukraine’s military currently happens to be or whether this is even on their radar instead of the far more important task of digging up dirt on US military commanders who have no intention of kissing Obozo’s ass.
There’s also the matter of the 1994 defense treaty between Ukraine and the US and Britain which required the latter two parties to come to Ukraine’s defense should it’s territorial integrity be violated. This treaty was in exchange for Ukraine giving up the nukes it inherited when the USSR broke up. This treaty has the potential to cause huge problems as, if the US and Britain were to abide by this treaty, they should now be flying troops into Lviv and American troops from Afghanistan should be invading Turkmenistan so that they can tie up Russian troops in the east. In 1994 I thought Ukraine should keep their nukes as a deterrent to Russian invasion, but by giving them up we’re now in this mess.
China is probably watching the US response with great interest as if the US fails to meet its treaty obligations to Ukraine, then it will likely feel much more confident in taking over the disputed islands that Japan claims are part of its territory as it knows that the US is a toothless tiger led by an affirmative action narcissist who should be employed as a toilet attendant rather than as TOTUS. Putin has sized up Obozo very well and has made a calculated decision that the cowardly community organizer will make token gestures of protest while doing absolutely nothing to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Presumably the next act in this geopolitical drama will be the Chicoms invading a few rocks sticking out of the ocean because they figure that the narcissist in chief will do nothing. Japan will be left on its own and S. Korea will also have significant reason to doubt whether the US navy with it’s fully integrated team of queers and bisexuals can do anything besides offend public decency.
At this point, a realistic view would be that partition of Ukraine is inevitable. I don’t want to see WWIII over the loss of a highly Russified portion of Ukraine when the majority of Ukrainians live in the west. It’s far more important to use US military assets to protect Taiwan, Japan and S. Korea as the US has military superiority over the Chicoms at this time and loss of Taiwan would be devastating as the US has outsourced almost all of its semiconductor manufacturing to Taiwan and S. Korea. Right now the US is virtually an empty shell industrially and it would be best for it to use its existing military assets to confront the Chicoms as this would likely result in a humiliating Chicom defeat.
Let the Russians deal with Ukrainian partisans who will make life very difficult for them in eastern Ukraine and tie up the Russians for years. There’s a good chance that the attack of the Ukrainian nationalists against the Kyiv kleptocracy will be duplicated in Moscow and right now, unless the US wants to get into a nuclear war, I don’t see any option besides the partition of Ukraine. Given that Crimea was made part of Ukrainian SSR in 1954 at the whim of Kruschev, Russian claim to Crimea is fairly strong. An intelligent US president would recognize this but Obozo is as dumb as a doorknob and doesn’t realize it.
Putin’s working under some hard demographic constraints as the Russian people have forgotten how to breed and pool of military age males in Russia will be monotonically declining over the next decade. I suspect that Putin will send troops in Russian uniforms next to “protect” civilian Russian population against “fascist” attacks on ethnic Russians. Geopolitically, it makes no sense to have an isolated Crimean naval base and there will be a land corridor from Russia despite Ukrainian objections. That was inevitable and far better an independent western Ukraine than WWIII over a treaty that the US was incapable of enforcing.
How many divisions does Canada have
Even if we had the divisions, how would we get them to where they are needed?
Not one that can be put into combat.
The last Division level exercise held in Canada was ‘RV 92’, ‘Rendezvous 1992’ in Wainwright Alberta.
I apologize.
I was being ironic/sarcastic.
Something Stalin said about the Pope.
I was imagining what Putin would say.
So all the thugs are coming out now that Team America is being run by an idiot and a weakling. Putin is not the only one that knows there is a baboon in the Whitehouse…don’t be surprised if other brush fires break out soon…
Yeah well that Russian news site linked by northernont on March 2, 2014 12:30 AM says that the ChiComs have already told Russia they’ll back their play at the UN emergency session discussing Ukraine being convened.
No one should be surprised if China gets a quid pro quo from Russia for it.
In 1936 Germany staged both the Winter and Summer Olympics, and broke their treaty by occupying the Rhineland by military force.
My guess is that Putin will allow the chaos to spread gradually west until it outruns the Russian speaking majority in eastern sections of Ukraine, and will then declare the situation “stable” and annex the regions occupied as some sort of new Dagestan level of autonomous republic.
Then he will wait a year or two for the government in Kiev to fall apart, get his puppet in place there, and allow the Ukraine to choose its fate. If they want to restart the old USSR, only Belarus and this portion of the Ukraine will go along, plus the part of Georgia that was annexed in 08-09, most of the other former republics will probably not be threatened as Putin doesn’t need them very much so why bother?
I am somewhat concerned that Obama will bristle when he gets an earful of sarcastic criticism and will do something reckless, like switching to a high spin golf ball or getting two Marines to hold his umbrella. Or smiling at Moochelle.
Don’t apologize.
Sarcasm is the best Troll food on the planet.
No one took the bait,
I declare this post Troll free..
@ loki
What an EXCELLENT post!
Can anyone imagine how Trudeau would react to this situation IF he were PM given his stated admiration of Commie China? Not to be overlooked his long family friendship with Fidel Castro of Cuba.
The other member nations of the G8, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan and Canada should remove Russia as a member of the G8.
There is no chance of WWIII starting from this. Harper is correct for saying the only thing a Western leader of a modern and decent society could say. Obama said exactly what he wished to express, as well: he’s on the other (anti-American ) side.
The ludicrous Euros are typically amoral and blind to the stupidity of depending on Russia for gas.
Roughly speaking, Putin is the new Ghadafi; the only difference is in wardrobe.
Doesn’t PM Harper get what a useless entity the UN is yet? I’ll bet Putin does.
I also object to sending an aid package to the Ukraine at this time. I wonder who will be spending it and on what. Not one thin dime will go into the pocket of a Ukrainian I can assure you.
I think we got a sampler of Junior’s foreign policy response when he made the comment about the hockey outcome.
Though it has no relevance now but didn’t Paul Martin once visit Ghadafi’s opulent tent? I’m sure there’s picture somewhere.
I think it is very illuminating that the PM makes a statement that is poised, prescient and very much becoming a mature and competent western leader, while Trudeau, like a child, cracks jokes and mutters emotionally overwrought hyperbole.
gunny
“Kreuhchev misjudged Kennedie’s Military experience”
yah, Khrushchev thought that dickwagging Johnny boy had some some military experience, only to discover that Military was the name of one of his girl friends. Kennedy shot himself in the foot, and the Chev bailed his sorry a$$ out, butt not for free, there was a price attacked to it.
It’s commendable that Harper continues to show leadership and highlight the dangerous failures of Affirmative Action.
BUT
Why won’t Harper make the same declarations against Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, or China? “…..it will lead to ongoing negative consequences for our bilateral relationship.”
No kidding, want to stop Islamic terrorism like the Toronto 18 that tried to behead Harper, start with “negative consequences” for the countries that breed, provide sanctuary, and then export them.
Exactly my thoughts River Rat. I was with Harper until he invoked the UN and started talking financial aid. I’m OK with calling home our ambassador, if I had my way Canada would cease diplomatic relations with 2/3 of the countries and accept immigrants from none right now. We’ve been getting drawn into European politics and wars for the last century, it never ends. We have enough problems to deal with here in Canada, including the pending bankruptcy of our socialist neighbour to the south.
I hope this dispute in Ukraine turns out to be some good television …. we are kinda in-between seasons and there is a current lack of action programs …. fired fights, bombings, black helicopters …. people shooting each other from behind mounds of rubble … Sure you can get all that on the Detroit or Chicago evening news, but I am talking larger scale, like Russia vs ukraine while Obama holds their jackets we look on as another country loses it’s chance at freedom.
“Civil War Lurking In Ukraine?”
I don’t have much of an opinion with what’s going on in Ukraine as I do not understand the geopolitics well enough to form a valid one. I will say though that first and foremost as with any of the African & Middle Eastern sh*tholes we should stay well clear physically, and opt for sanctions.
Unfortunately for the Ukraine it’s caught between a rock and a hard place. The fact is neither Russia nor an EU/ USSA alliance is in the best interests for ALL Ukrainians.
The Russians do indeed have legitimate territorial claims, cultural ties, and security concerns with a portion of the Ukraine that cannot be denied. For those people who are “pro Russia” they have every reason to fear and loath the EU and Obamba’s faux democratic police state.
At the end of the day Civil War is what cut’s new borders for like minded people, god knows we could use a few proper new border arrangements in the west.
What western leaders need to negotiate with Russian leaders is the agreement to stay out of Ukrainian affaires completely and allow that country to arrange itself naturally. When the dust settles decide who get to trade and who gets sanctioned like North Korea.
BTW – There is no war that America can win with Russia.
As with China, Russia has long ago utilized the US Open Border policy and placed as many strategic assists as it could muster inside the US over the last 40 years or so.
When one understands that fact one understand Putin’s smug arrogance in all matters military.
A huge part of the problem here is being caused by the vibrant diversity. If the state now known as Ukraine was populated by Ukrainians, there probably would be no problem right now with different factions with such diverse goals. When half the country is basically Russia, and Crimea is a historically Muslim place that was colonized by Russia, but now part of Ukraine, you are asking for trouble.
Best Solution is to redefine the borders in the area, perform some ethnic cleansing to get all the players back into their own territory and start anew. Let their be a Ukraine, where Ukrainians can run their own affairs and the foreigners aren’t in the government of their country.
It always fascinates me how the euroweinies are the last to speak …. A history of bad blood that isn’t too old
Russia was “called in” to save ethnic Russians in Georgia. Even though the Georgians fought back, no other nation militarily came to their aid. There were no apparent geopolitical consequences to Russia.
Russia is now being “called in” to save ethnic Russians in Ukraine. Ukraine will end up losing this territory to Russia. They can do it with resistance and suffer bloodshed and the risk of a larger loss or they can allow it to happen with them and the Russians in the same place but no resistance. But it will happen.
Now the Chinese see what will happen if they go after Taiwan and the “disputed” islands in the South China Sea. To the extent that Crimea is painted in international circles as a claim by Russians to territory that is rightfully theirs, precedent will be created to bolster Chinese actions.
Excellent post. You asked “what the Ukrainian military will do”. As of this morning the Ukrainian army is on full alert and reservists have been mobilized. See my post on the “I’m surprised that anyone is surprised” thread of this morning.
To keep peace and prevent a full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine could give up the Crimean Peninsula and possibly some of the Donetsk region. But wouldn’t this be like the dismembering of Czechoslovakia in 1939? The Tatars would not be happy, as they remember Stalin’s relocation of them to Kazackistan all too well.
Knight99 @10:34, well said. Civil war could well be lurking in south eastern parts of Ukraine. Kharkiv has often been a fallback position of the Russians, during 1918-20 and again now.
minuteman >
Agreed,
Multiculturalism will have the same effect on western nations in years to come. We are already watching the same problems starting to unfold in parts of Europe.
Cultural or military invasion of a sovereign nations have similar outcomes.
Good time to bomb the phuck out of Iran. Kill two birds with one stone.
I guess the Russian Olympic honeymoon is over?
This is a civil war. http://vg-news.ru/news/20140354074.html We must remember that those who support the current government in Kiev are not the majority. Canada should butt out IMO.
Good for PM Harper for taking a stand.
Russian news. That’s good enough for me.
Civil war, huh? Then what is the Russian Army doing there and why are you getting your information from the Russian government?
A measured and cogent response, reflective of the gravity of the situation.
Cheers
Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
1- President Vladimir Putin says Russian Ice Hockey Men’s team best of the games.
2- America defeats Russian Ice Hockey team because of moving the goal foul,
3- Called by an American referee.
4- Canada steals the Men’s Ice Hockey Gold Medal from Sweden.
5- Russia gets beaten in the Bronze Medal game,
6- then invades the Ukraine.
–
Mr. Putin are you still Pissed?
If I were Putin I wouldn’t give up the Crimea. Long term security is more important than short term populism. Babarak O’bumbles is the living epitome of this philosophical phailure.
The ONLY thing I liked about Reagan was that he bankrupted the commies into the stone age via military spending. Am I wrong now to think that those very commies are now Reagan’s legacy? Are their societal views (not thier societal incursion) not what I thought a mere 30 years ago?
THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONS CAN DO A LOT TO HELP.
“The US and its allies have little leverage over Russia in their efforts to stop an invasion.”
This is a common misconception. There are a lot of things the democratic nations can do. We’re not back in the dark days of the League of Nations anymore.
Here are some options:
– Send US, British, French, Canadian warships to the Black Sea.
– Provide credit for the Ukrainian government to enable them to buy food and other essentials.
– Buy Ukrainian grain, coal, and other products.
– Sell or give older farm equipment to the Ukraine.
– Sell liquified natural gas to the Ukraine, to reduce their dependence on Russian supplies.
– Begin planning US, French, and Canadian nuclear reactors for the Ukraine.
– Expel Russia from international organizations, including the World Health Organization, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization, international banking organizations, the G-22, the G-8, and numerous European organizations. Start with the minor ones and move up the ladder.
– Give the Ukraine provisional membership (observer) status in the European Union.
– Also give provisional membership status in the European Union to Georgia.
– Send military advisers to the Ukraine.
– Set up a lend-lease program to supply weapons to the Ukraine. Western Europe is still overstocked with weapons from the cold war. E.g., Germany has been almost giving away its older Leopard tanks. These are great tanks but Germany has too many.
– Many countries could lend aircraft to the Ukraine. These could include military transports, reconnaissance aircraft, command and control (AWACS) type aircraft, cargo aircraft, and disused civilian airliners. Brazil has some great light and nimble ground attack aircraft.
– Grant provisional NATO status to Georgia.
– Provide relocation allowances for ethnic Russians to move from the Ukraine to Russia.
– Adopt abandoned cold-war era airports in Georgia and equip them as transit points that Israel can use on their way to Iran.
– Undermine the Russian ruble.
– Bomb the palace of president Assad in Damascus.
– If that doesn’t work send them some older nukes from the US, Britain, France, or Canada. The Ukraine gave up their nukes after Russia promised it would not attack or invade the Ukraine.
– Bill Clinton made a mistake when he bailed out the Russian economy in 1998. It was like rescuing a starving Hyena. Once it’s healthy, it will eat you.
The last presidential election in Ukraine was widely viewed as tainted. The government that was elected signed an agreement with Russia extending the lease of their military base in the Crimea, which should be set aside if the coming election can be held with electoral integrity, and a true reflection of what the ukrainians want.
Hopefully the russians can accept this, and not interfere with this process..
Good for Mr. Harper to stand up for what is right, a statesman’s like commentary from him. Too bad our military is grotesquely underfunded while we have such idiocies as “public broadcasting” pissing away a billion each year.
I am reminded at this time of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
History tells us that while the Soviets were in deadly earnest, the Kennedy DemocRats were F-CKING AROUND. They were playing American electoral politics with live nukes, against the Soviet Union. Oh, and John F. Kennedy was stoned out of his freakin’ mind on pain killers and busy chasing skirts when he was concious. Nikita Khrushchev saved us all that day by correctly understanding that the Americans were not behaving rationally, and backed off.
Nikita Sergeyevich “We will bury you” freakin’ Khrushchev saved the world. Kennedy was going to let it burn for advantage in the next election. Because he did not comprehend the gravity of his situation.
Today we have another American president who’s irrational facing another Russian who’s deadly serious. Here’s hoping Putin is as smart as Nikita baby was, because Obama isn’t going to wake up and smell the coffee until the day some foreign soldier pulls him out of a spider hole like Saddam Husein.
Reagan: “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”
Obama: “Mr. Putin, if you invade the Ukraine, I’m going to collapse on my fainting couch, then have one of my corpse-men put my umbrella down to write you a slightly scolding letter.”
Oh yeah, Russia isn’t laughing at ALL.
Why on earth would Harper risk Canada’s annihilation?
To impress Barry with tough talk?
Talk, being the operative word.
Crimea has “belonged” to Ukraine for like 25 years.
It’s population is 60% ethnically Russian, and it’s the location of a MAJOR Russian naval base. The loss of Crimea is an existential threat to Russia.
Russia will NOT EVER let it go.
Harper is an amiable lightweight and a fool.
He did Canadians no favor.
He ought to have kept his mouth shut.
“”We will bury you” freakin’ Khrushchev saved the world.” I disagree Phantom. Krushchev was a lot of bluster and Kennedy called his bluff. Kennedy caused the problem in the first place with his liberal world view thinking he could bargain with the Soviets Gangsters. Kreuhchev misjudged Kennedie’s Military experience and reliance on good advisers.
Krushchev knew he could not sustain a fight 4000 miles from his home ports. The Americans very likely also knew how fragile the Soviet Power was via information from defectors, Jewish-Russian spies and U2 overflights.
The American media in it’s ignorance, made out Kennedy was a gambler, but he likely knew he had the Butcher on the ropes.
The present Russians have been rebuilding their military with quality hardware for 3 decades. They still would not likely be equal to NATO and now don’t have the Ukrainians to use as cannon fodder as they had in Afghanistan in the 80’s.
Putin wouldn’t give a damn what Canada thinks or does. He knows we are toothless with no influence at all, but with a fairly large Ukrainian voting base Harper has to say all the right things. If Putin ignores Obama he sure as hell won’t pay any attention to Harper. Europe won’t interfere either so it’s pretty well a done deal for whatever Putin wants. He wants pre 1991 and there is nothing to stop him.
Just as an add on; there was a gun fight between Ukrainian and Russian Soldiers at a railway stop in the 1950’s. I think the casualties were something like 30+ Russian soldiers.
An indication that the former USSR was not the bastion of strength it was made out to be by our ever Left media and their Fifth Column busy-bodies.
As usual, US “intelligence” services (who seem to be far more interested in the affairs of US generals disliked by Obozo than real foreign intelligence) predicted that the Russians wouldn’t invade. The Crimea is home to the Russian Black sea fleet and is of considerable strategic importance to Russia as it’s their means of projecting force into the Mediterranean. It’s very unlikely that Russia will want the Crimea isolated from Russia proper by a big chunk of hostile Ukrainian territory and thus a land corridor is needed. As is typical in such “non-invasions”, agent provacateurs are inserted into strategic locations and thus we see the “spontaneous” demonstrations against the Ukrainian government in Karkyiv and other heavily Russified cities in eastern Ukraine.
The Russians don’t fool around and at this time we just have mysterious groups of individuals who are heavily armed wearing uniforms with no markings in Crimea but I have no doubt that Putin would have no hesitation in sending an armed column south from Russia to connect up with the Crimean troops. Strategically, this makes perfect sense but the big question is what the Ukrainian military will do.
While large, it would be good to know how well the Ukrainian military has maintained their armored forces, size of ammunition stockpiles and to what extent the Russians have infiltrated the military over the last decade. There appears to have been no opposition by Ukrainian troops in Crimea. I’m curious if the US “intelligence” community knows about how militarily effective Ukraine’s military currently happens to be or whether this is even on their radar instead of the far more important task of digging up dirt on US military commanders who have no intention of kissing Obozo’s ass.
There’s also the matter of the 1994 defense treaty between Ukraine and the US and Britain which required the latter two parties to come to Ukraine’s defense should it’s territorial integrity be violated. This treaty was in exchange for Ukraine giving up the nukes it inherited when the USSR broke up. This treaty has the potential to cause huge problems as, if the US and Britain were to abide by this treaty, they should now be flying troops into Lviv and American troops from Afghanistan should be invading Turkmenistan so that they can tie up Russian troops in the east. In 1994 I thought Ukraine should keep their nukes as a deterrent to Russian invasion, but by giving them up we’re now in this mess.
China is probably watching the US response with great interest as if the US fails to meet its treaty obligations to Ukraine, then it will likely feel much more confident in taking over the disputed islands that Japan claims are part of its territory as it knows that the US is a toothless tiger led by an affirmative action narcissist who should be employed as a toilet attendant rather than as TOTUS. Putin has sized up Obozo very well and has made a calculated decision that the cowardly community organizer will make token gestures of protest while doing absolutely nothing to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Presumably the next act in this geopolitical drama will be the Chicoms invading a few rocks sticking out of the ocean because they figure that the narcissist in chief will do nothing. Japan will be left on its own and S. Korea will also have significant reason to doubt whether the US navy with it’s fully integrated team of queers and bisexuals can do anything besides offend public decency.
At this point, a realistic view would be that partition of Ukraine is inevitable. I don’t want to see WWIII over the loss of a highly Russified portion of Ukraine when the majority of Ukrainians live in the west. It’s far more important to use US military assets to protect Taiwan, Japan and S. Korea as the US has military superiority over the Chicoms at this time and loss of Taiwan would be devastating as the US has outsourced almost all of its semiconductor manufacturing to Taiwan and S. Korea. Right now the US is virtually an empty shell industrially and it would be best for it to use its existing military assets to confront the Chicoms as this would likely result in a humiliating Chicom defeat.
Let the Russians deal with Ukrainian partisans who will make life very difficult for them in eastern Ukraine and tie up the Russians for years. There’s a good chance that the attack of the Ukrainian nationalists against the Kyiv kleptocracy will be duplicated in Moscow and right now, unless the US wants to get into a nuclear war, I don’t see any option besides the partition of Ukraine. Given that Crimea was made part of Ukrainian SSR in 1954 at the whim of Kruschev, Russian claim to Crimea is fairly strong. An intelligent US president would recognize this but Obozo is as dumb as a doorknob and doesn’t realize it.
Putin’s working under some hard demographic constraints as the Russian people have forgotten how to breed and pool of military age males in Russia will be monotonically declining over the next decade. I suspect that Putin will send troops in Russian uniforms next to “protect” civilian Russian population against “fascist” attacks on ethnic Russians. Geopolitically, it makes no sense to have an isolated Crimean naval base and there will be a land corridor from Russia despite Ukrainian objections. That was inevitable and far better an independent western Ukraine than WWIII over a treaty that the US was incapable of enforcing.
How many divisions does Canada have
Even if we had the divisions, how would we get them to where they are needed?
Not one that can be put into combat.
The last Division level exercise held in Canada was ‘RV 92’, ‘Rendezvous 1992’ in Wainwright Alberta.
I apologize.
I was being ironic/sarcastic.
Something Stalin said about the Pope.
I was imagining what Putin would say.
So all the thugs are coming out now that Team America is being run by an idiot and a weakling. Putin is not the only one that knows there is a baboon in the Whitehouse…don’t be surprised if other brush fires break out soon…
Yeah well that Russian news site linked by northernont on March 2, 2014 12:30 AM says that the ChiComs have already told Russia they’ll back their play at the UN emergency session discussing Ukraine being convened.
No one should be surprised if China gets a quid pro quo from Russia for it.
In 1936 Germany staged both the Winter and Summer Olympics, and broke their treaty by occupying the Rhineland by military force.
My guess is that Putin will allow the chaos to spread gradually west until it outruns the Russian speaking majority in eastern sections of Ukraine, and will then declare the situation “stable” and annex the regions occupied as some sort of new Dagestan level of autonomous republic.
Then he will wait a year or two for the government in Kiev to fall apart, get his puppet in place there, and allow the Ukraine to choose its fate. If they want to restart the old USSR, only Belarus and this portion of the Ukraine will go along, plus the part of Georgia that was annexed in 08-09, most of the other former republics will probably not be threatened as Putin doesn’t need them very much so why bother?
I am somewhat concerned that Obama will bristle when he gets an earful of sarcastic criticism and will do something reckless, like switching to a high spin golf ball or getting two Marines to hold his umbrella. Or smiling at Moochelle.
Don’t apologize.
Sarcasm is the best Troll food on the planet.
No one took the bait,
I declare this post Troll free..
@ loki
What an EXCELLENT post!
Can anyone imagine how Trudeau would react to this situation IF he were PM given his stated admiration of Commie China? Not to be overlooked his long family friendship with Fidel Castro of Cuba.
Honestly,there are some here who need pablum still. http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/mikeshedlock/2014/02/28/civil-war-lurking-in-ukraine-n1801974/page/full
The other member nations of the G8, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan and Canada should remove Russia as a member of the G8.
There is no chance of WWIII starting from this. Harper is correct for saying the only thing a Western leader of a modern and decent society could say. Obama said exactly what he wished to express, as well: he’s on the other (anti-American ) side.
The ludicrous Euros are typically amoral and blind to the stupidity of depending on Russia for gas.
Roughly speaking, Putin is the new Ghadafi; the only difference is in wardrobe.
Doesn’t PM Harper get what a useless entity the UN is yet? I’ll bet Putin does.
I also object to sending an aid package to the Ukraine at this time. I wonder who will be spending it and on what. Not one thin dime will go into the pocket of a Ukrainian I can assure you.
I think we got a sampler of Junior’s foreign policy response when he made the comment about the hockey outcome.
Though it has no relevance now but didn’t Paul Martin once visit Ghadafi’s opulent tent? I’m sure there’s picture somewhere.
I think it is very illuminating that the PM makes a statement that is poised, prescient and very much becoming a mature and competent western leader, while Trudeau, like a child, cracks jokes and mutters emotionally overwrought hyperbole.
gunny
“Kreuhchev misjudged Kennedie’s Military experience”
yah, Khrushchev thought that dickwagging Johnny boy had some some military experience, only to discover that Military was the name of one of his girl friends. Kennedy shot himself in the foot, and the Chev bailed his sorry a$$ out, butt not for free, there was a price attacked to it.
It’s commendable that Harper continues to show leadership and highlight the dangerous failures of Affirmative Action.
BUT
Why won’t Harper make the same declarations against Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, or China? “…..it will lead to ongoing negative consequences for our bilateral relationship.”
No kidding, want to stop Islamic terrorism like the Toronto 18 that tried to behead Harper, start with “negative consequences” for the countries that breed, provide sanctuary, and then export them.
Exactly my thoughts River Rat. I was with Harper until he invoked the UN and started talking financial aid. I’m OK with calling home our ambassador, if I had my way Canada would cease diplomatic relations with 2/3 of the countries and accept immigrants from none right now. We’ve been getting drawn into European politics and wars for the last century, it never ends. We have enough problems to deal with here in Canada, including the pending bankruptcy of our socialist neighbour to the south.
I hope this dispute in Ukraine turns out to be some good television …. we are kinda in-between seasons and there is a current lack of action programs …. fired fights, bombings, black helicopters …. people shooting each other from behind mounds of rubble … Sure you can get all that on the Detroit or Chicago evening news, but I am talking larger scale, like Russia vs ukraine while Obama holds their jackets we look on as another country loses it’s chance at freedom.
“Civil War Lurking In Ukraine?”
I don’t have much of an opinion with what’s going on in Ukraine as I do not understand the geopolitics well enough to form a valid one. I will say though that first and foremost as with any of the African & Middle Eastern sh*tholes we should stay well clear physically, and opt for sanctions.
Unfortunately for the Ukraine it’s caught between a rock and a hard place. The fact is neither Russia nor an EU/ USSA alliance is in the best interests for ALL Ukrainians.
The Russians do indeed have legitimate territorial claims, cultural ties, and security concerns with a portion of the Ukraine that cannot be denied. For those people who are “pro Russia” they have every reason to fear and loath the EU and Obamba’s faux democratic police state.
At the end of the day Civil War is what cut’s new borders for like minded people, god knows we could use a few proper new border arrangements in the west.
What western leaders need to negotiate with Russian leaders is the agreement to stay out of Ukrainian affaires completely and allow that country to arrange itself naturally. When the dust settles decide who get to trade and who gets sanctioned like North Korea.
Loki nailed it.
Two interesting links:
http://weaselzippers.us/177855-brave-russians-protesting-russian-action-against-ukraine-in-moscow/
And one, I’d opine, tied to news reports coming from Russian sources:
http://weaselzippers.us/177856-russia-claiming-thousands-fleeing-ukraine-to-putin-and-russia-here-are-the-pictures/
BTW – There is no war that America can win with Russia.
As with China, Russia has long ago utilized the US Open Border policy and placed as many strategic assists as it could muster inside the US over the last 40 years or so.
When one understands that fact one understand Putin’s smug arrogance in all matters military.
A huge part of the problem here is being caused by the vibrant diversity. If the state now known as Ukraine was populated by Ukrainians, there probably would be no problem right now with different factions with such diverse goals. When half the country is basically Russia, and Crimea is a historically Muslim place that was colonized by Russia, but now part of Ukraine, you are asking for trouble.
Best Solution is to redefine the borders in the area, perform some ethnic cleansing to get all the players back into their own territory and start anew. Let their be a Ukraine, where Ukrainians can run their own affairs and the foreigners aren’t in the government of their country.
It always fascinates me how the euroweinies are the last to speak …. A history of bad blood that isn’t too old
Russia was “called in” to save ethnic Russians in Georgia. Even though the Georgians fought back, no other nation militarily came to their aid. There were no apparent geopolitical consequences to Russia.
Russia is now being “called in” to save ethnic Russians in Ukraine. Ukraine will end up losing this territory to Russia. They can do it with resistance and suffer bloodshed and the risk of a larger loss or they can allow it to happen with them and the Russians in the same place but no resistance. But it will happen.
Now the Chinese see what will happen if they go after Taiwan and the “disputed” islands in the South China Sea. To the extent that Crimea is painted in international circles as a claim by Russians to territory that is rightfully theirs, precedent will be created to bolster Chinese actions.
Excellent post. You asked “what the Ukrainian military will do”. As of this morning the Ukrainian army is on full alert and reservists have been mobilized. See my post on the “I’m surprised that anyone is surprised” thread of this morning.
To keep peace and prevent a full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine could give up the Crimean Peninsula and possibly some of the Donetsk region. But wouldn’t this be like the dismembering of Czechoslovakia in 1939? The Tatars would not be happy, as they remember Stalin’s relocation of them to Kazackistan all too well.
Knight99 @10:34, well said. Civil war could well be lurking in south eastern parts of Ukraine. Kharkiv has often been a fallback position of the Russians, during 1918-20 and again now.
minuteman >
Agreed,
Multiculturalism will have the same effect on western nations in years to come. We are already watching the same problems starting to unfold in parts of Europe.
Cultural or military invasion of a sovereign nations have similar outcomes.
Good time to bomb the phuck out of Iran. Kill two birds with one stone.