135 Replies to “Egypt”

  1. rose – the looting wasn’t, to my knowledge, carried out by the demonstrators but by Mubarak thugs – and – the prisoners released from the prisons. What rioting? Those were demonstrations.
    The demonstrators formed a human shield around the museums to prevent looting and damage; they formed Neighbourhood Police in their own neighbourhoods to check everyone coming in (the corrupt police had left); they even checked all who came into the demonstration square for weapons. OK?
    And don’t move into the silly names, buttercup.
    Stick to the issues. Think. The violence now, is due to Mubarak’s thugs, paid public employees, who are bringing in molotovs and rocks. OK?
    Antenor – your suppositions about the ‘alienated youth’ etc – remain your suppositions. I disagree; the internet, tweet, phone etc, played a significant role. I know you are trying to suggest some nefarious Agent, but, there’s no proof or evidence of this.
    Again, this isn’t an Either-Or situation. Either Mubarak The Dictator or the Muslim Brotherhood. There’s something else – the Egyptian people – and don’t assume that they want either totalitarian system ruling them.
    M – what ‘illiterate masses’? The literacy rate is 70% in Egypt. The masses did not elect the Iranian govt; it’s a theocratic dictatorship. And freedom for these people doesn’t mean to ‘club another person’.
    I disagree with you about the types of societal structure. There’s no other type besides a democracy and capitalism if you require a growth economy.
    And no, our society is not dying, although you obviously enjoy thoughts of its demise.
    small c conservative – if the MB is part of the new govt, does not mean that it controls the new govt.
    The point of these tectonic changes in the ME is that with the majority of the people gaining political and economic power…Islamic fascism will wither away.

  2. “no, my argument that the West has been propping up dictators in the ME and thus, has enabled the rise of utopian fascism, is hardly racist. Such an argument is valid for any population. Repress a population with force, and they will start to dream of ‘magical remedies’, where, if they are Pure, then..wonderful results will occur.
    We’ve been helping those dictators repress their people…because, we felt that those dictators were ‘friendly’ to us. That’s shortsighted. We have to take ‘the long view’..”
    ET at February 2, 2011 5:32 PM
    Taking a long view back to the late 1970’s, I noticed that the West was turfed out of Iran and now Iran has a patron in Russia.
    (and did before the “people’s revolution)
    I think we will see the same thing happen in Egypt, Tunisia, and Lebanon.
    (other Arab nations will fall like dominos)
    Iran will be a be the front man for Russia and Russia will be seen doing in those nations what they are doing for Iran.
    Western governments have been urging, with carrots, these middle eastern thugocracies for decades, but the Great Satan can’t use a big stick or the Left shreiks and complains.
    Additionally these thugocracies have always had the option to turn to Russia as a patron all along.
    I predict the Muslim Brotherhood will take power and Egypt will be worse off with nobody to blame but themselves.
    Russia has zero problem with protests against it’s government, unlike western nations.
    The Muslim Brotherhood and Hizballah government in Lebanon will crack down on dissidents with impunity and these nations will be stuck in the beds they have made for themselves.

  3. set you free – The Bolsheviks got 0% – the provisional government put them in power. Likewise, why do you believe voting will determine who rules Egypt? It certainly didn’t in Iran.

  4. ET said “nemo2 – that fact that extremists could shut down the Suez Canal isn’t the point. It’s the results of such an action – and the massive loss of income would weaken their control over the population. They’d be ousted in a day.”
    Ah, but if it was all blamed on Der Choos?

  5. “This trend will abate when the magic-of-purity is no longer needed, when your actions in your daily life will have direct positive results. You won’t need obedience to an authoritative code.”
    ET: Essentially what you are describing as a remedy is cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) which is what reinforcement of behaviors with either positive or negative results in direct relation to actions taken is termed and is often referred to as conditioning.
    The MB will condition the population to accept the natural consequences of its ideology in the guise of religious duty. The west is not willing to play therapist nor would it have enough time to condition the country to accept a “Jefferson” definition of democracy so that the populace can experience the positive reinforcement you speak of.
    However, I do agree what could work is “for a transitional govt to set up, with a clear time frame and limits on what they can do, to reform the constitution and set up free elections.” The problem with this is who will ensure this is enforced if their own military fails?
    The MB has a ready made infrastructure for the Egyptians to adopt – there is no other political party that can compete with that. Also, I think there is a real possibility that the Suez Canal could experience interruption problems which would inevitably result in an even more desperate Egyptian population – hunger motivates people to do things they would not do otherwise. If such a scenario with the canal should happen, the MB could rush in as savior using their already in place infrastructure for food distribution and medical aid.
    Yes, we all want self-determination and freedom,but wishing for it is one thing. The reality is that freedom and western democracy is unlikely to happen for Egypt because the west will not intervene until it is too late, if at all and at this point in our history, considering the degree of hatred towards Israel, the short-term solution for Egypt is of critical consequence for us all.

  6. Egyptian uprising idol Mohammed ElBaradei – Rose
    Ha, ha! You nailed it, Rose. And the judges were the MSM and other Western leftists.
    Just like old times for the MSM – they believe they are the vanguard of a world reborn, forming public opinion: suddenly relevant. However, if you look at their historical track record in these revolutionaly situations, they reliably indicate the wise course by trumpeting the opposite one. Or have Iran, Vietnam and Cambodia all enjoyed happy endings.
    The chattering class never learns.

  7. “rose – the looting wasn’t, to my knowledge, carried out by the demonstrators but by Mubarak thugs – and – the prisoners released from the prisons. What rioting? Those were demonstrations.
    The demonstrators formed a human shield around the museums to prevent looting and damage; they formed Neighbourhood Police in their own neighbourhoods to check everyone coming in (the corrupt police had left); they even checked all who came into the demonstration square for weapons. OK?
    And don’t move into the silly names, buttercup.
    Stick to the issues. Think. The violence now, is due to Mubarak’s thugs, paid public employees, who are bringing in molotovs and rocks. OK?”
    ET: You’ve been posting a fair amount on this issue over the past few days; some of what you say makes sense and some does not. Regarding the above – where are you getting this information from (ie links) or is this just your personal interpretation of events?

  8. Oz- Russia will sell arms etc to Iran as long as Iran doesn’t meddle with Russia’s own fight against Islamists – in Chechnya, Georgia and other parts of Russia.
    This is from Business Week:
    Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, in California, who is from Egypt, said: “The uproar stems from “a mixture of high youth unemployment, soaring food prices and low per capita income,”. Note – it isn’t a desire for the MB.
    “We are seeing a paradigm shift in Egypt right now,” El- Erian, 52, said. “We are seeing people demanding change.” He noted that Egypt is unlikely to follow the same path as Iran toward a theocracy. “A better historical example would be the Philippines, rather than Iran,”.
    So, someone experienced in Egypt says, no, the MB will not take control of the country. And no-one, I disagree that the MB has a ‘ready made infrastructure’. Local assistance, which they do provide (health care, food, etc) is not the same as running a nation.
    Again, my concern is Mubarak’s thuggish agenda, his use of hired violent rioters…and the fact that Obama is standing back and doing nothing. I think he ought to tell Mubarak to leave. Now. And, assist or have a coalition of nations, assist in setting up a limited term transitional govt to change the constitution and arrange early elections.

  9. Antenor @ 7:11, exactly. It is too much to believe that all these uprisings, in what is it now seven countries, are spontaneous.
    ElBaradei is just a front man for the Muslim Brotherhood.
    If the MB is a part of a new government in Egypt, or elsewhere in the ME, the end result will be similar to what happened in Czechoslovakia in the late 1940s. A coalition of various parties which included a few Communist front parties. As is almost always the case, the radical parties undermined the liberal ones and took control. We are being naive in the extreme if we think the MB will allow the formation of a genuine form of or a transition to a democratic form of government.

  10. By dying I mean rapidly aging. The only growth we have comes from insourcing foreign people. With zero growth on our end bringing in large numbers of people is bound to change the character of the country for good or for ill.
    I was only being slightly facetious with my clubbing comment. The truth is that no one has any idea what a free Egypt will be. What kind of freedoms are they asking for? It sounds like they have mainly economic grievances yet the protests are largely centered around Mumbarak. So its not clear how many will coalesce around a secular figure or a fundamentalist figure after the president’s oustre. Whoever comes to power it would be naïve to assume that the MB can’t win through at the end. Just as Hizbollah, Hamas and the Ayahtollahs did. Its not clear either whether or not political freedoms are even at the heart of the issue. Would they be happy with jobs and real estate? Hard to say.
    Capitalism is required for a growth economy yes but 3rd world countries are having limited success because they don’t have the basic fundamentals that make capitalism possible such as safety and property rights. I think however that so long as growth is good and people aren’t too repressed that a society may not necessarily need democracy. The bourgeoisie may want self determination but there’s no reason why they cannot join the ruling elite. The Canadian west was largely unhappy for decades but we were never near revolt. What is the Roman saying? That people just need food and a show?
    Political science is not a hard science simply because things can never be repeated in a vacuum. This is not Cromwellian England I’m open to the fact that truisms can change.

  11. ET,
    “I disagree that the MB has a ‘ready made infrastructure’. Local assistance, which they do provide (health care, food, etc) is not the same as running a nation.”
    Neither is being a community organizer the same as running a nation, yet we both know who is running a once super power nation with those qualifications despite the obvious contradiction/distinction.
    M – well said. I agree wholeheartedly.
    I think a clean election in Egypt is a long-shot, given what happened recently in Iran and, some would argue, the US.
    Believe it or not, there is a large percentage of the world’s population that rank ideological success above economic success: especially when the latter seems highly unlikely.

  12. no-one – right about Obama. And the result? He lost the House to the GOP, who are ready to take down his ‘signature’ health care act, and to take charge of him. In a genuine democracy, the checks and balances..and limited terms..constrain, even though they don’t prevent – stupidity.
    m – agreed; security and property rights are basic to capitalism. And so is a governance that empowers a middle class to start up small and medium businesses, and be in charge of the laws around these businesses. The rest of your post about ‘the bourgeoisie’ etc… I don’t get. And no, people don’t survive just by ‘food and a show’.
    No-one – your statement of ‘ideological success’ vs ‘economic success’…is an either-or situation, and I reject that. I can certainly accept that people want, ideologically, a democracy and a just society…as well as economically, a robust economy. That’s both!

  13. Silly question of the day:
    I see masses of people protesting with nary room to swing a cat, yet I have yet to see a porta-potty. After 8 hot days, do you think there would be a smell in the air?
    Just askin’
    cairo is a sewer. large open ditches run down to the nile , piles of trash, open sewers 30 ft wide. the smell is beyond belief.

  14. cal2
    That very query was brought up earlier on this thread. Thing is that’s the least of the sh!t cleanup that could be involved with this chapter of middle eastern inferiorism.

  15. Time will tell when it comes to both Egypt and Obama.
    Israel is in very real danger and they know it.
    The violence is not over yet in Egypt and as others stated, there was violence from the beginning. The assertion that the protests were pure and peaceful at first is false.

  19. ET
    Q52 How much of a role do you think Islam plays in the political life of our country – a very large role, a fairly large role, a fairly small role, or a very small role?
    48% Egyptians say it plays large/medium large role.
    But majority think that influence of Islam in politics is positive.
    Is there a discrepancy – NO. Simple result shows that Islam should play larger role in politics because it still do not play a major role but its influence is positive.
    Why it is so difficult for you to understand?
    The second set of questions – it seems that you did not read it properly. The questions were
    Q94 ASK MUSLIMS ONLY: Do you think there is a struggle in our country between groups who want to modernize the country and Islamic fundamentalists or don’t you think so?
    (Egypt) = 61% NO there is no struggle
    (Pakistan) 44% – yes, there is struggle, 12% no, 44% refused .
    Now it is somewhat strange that 61% identify with modernizers, but you forgot that it is 61% of 44% so in reality it is only 26.8% who identify with modernizers. Also for many Pakistani modernizers are people like Muslim Brotherhood. Fundamentalists are Taliban or jihadists. Further PEW said that in Pakistan sample design was “Disproportionately urban”
    SYF
    SandMonkey is on twitter, everyday. But SM is with demonstrators and it is for him very subjective, very personal.

  20. Shhhhh – mentioning them calls them forth! But come to think of it, it is a bit surprising that a certain incomprehensible person of no fixed name hasn’t got any insight on this particular subject.

  21. What happens when/if the Muslim Brotherhood government shuts down the Suez?
    Posted by: nemo2 at February 2, 2011 3:30 PM
    Worse, have you Ballon Heads considered what might happen if they close the Panama Canal?

  22. John Chittick>
    Good point.
    I though we’ve been watching re-run’s of a French New Year’s celebration myself.
    Who knew?

  23. No-One
    I tend to think that the protests were not violent at the start. I suspect that even now there is less violence than TV says. (al Jazeera or CNN). It is difficult to find what is real because some MSM and particularly al Jazeera have their own agenda. Further, the twitter messages are very personal – people often post what they think is happening and not what really is happening (re: how many people are killed/wounded, how many people are on demonstrations and so on.)

  24. ET
    Sorry I was trying to recall what you said about how democracies evolve. Something about how the capitalists eventually want political power commensurate with their economic ones?
    I think the problem that I have is that you believe a secular democracy is destiny. It doesn’t have to be though. You just need some kind of structure where there is some form of free market. Democracy is how we chose to structure our society but it’s not without its costs. Someone else can do some accounting and feel that maybe some other kind of political structure and its associated costs are more worthwhile. Even if we assume that democracy is the optimal choice, we often make decisions that are sub-optimal. That’s neither here nor there though. That’s all nothing personal or anything.
    The issue in Egypt is that you can probably institute pro-growth economic reforms in Egypt without removing Mumbarak. So far the focus of the animus is towards the president so in a sense the protesters are grasping at a solution which doesn’t really address their problem. So after Mumbarak leaves then what?
    The thing about the American Revolution is that the revolutionaries had a pretty good idea of what they wanted. When you have revolutions like the French or a lot of other ones who weren’t really that sure of their endgame, like the Egyptian one now, that energy then lends itself to those best able to harness it. So I’m extremely skeptical about those who say the MB won’t take over. Though I think they will. They’ve been really cool about it all so far. I wonder what inTrade is saying?

  25. ella – the question was:
    94-95, whether the respondents acknowledged a struggle between modernizers and fundamentalists, and then, whether the respondent identified with the modernizers or fundamentalists.
    As I said, it is interesting that in Pakistan, 44% agreed there was a struggle and 61% identified with modernization…and only 28% with fundamentalists. The reality on the ground is the opposite.
    Meanwhile, in Egypt, only 31% acknowledge a struggle according to the chart, and identified with fundamentalists at 59% rather than modernizers at 27%. Again, this belies the reality on the ground.
    As for Q 52, 53 – it is contradictory. The report even admits this: “Respondents who had a positive view of Islam’s influence included both those who said Islam was playing a large role in their country’s political life and saw this as a good thing and those who said Islam was playing a small role and saw this as a bad thing. ”
    http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1874/egypt-protests-democracy-islam-influence-politics-islamic-extremism
    And some other problems: Read this from the PEW report:
    “Asked whether there is a struggle in their nations between those who want to modernize their country and Islamic fundamentalists, a 61%-majority of Muslims in Egypt said they did not see a struggle. Just 31% of Egyptian Muslims saw a struggle between modernizers and fundamentialists in their country”. Maybe you don’t see this as contradictory, but I do.
    And, a large number of Egyptians were very and somewhat concerned about Islamic extremism 40 and 30. But again, these ratios don’t jibe with the other questions – eg, the 59% who identify with fundamentalists. And even this contradicts a later paragraph which says: “In each of these nations, though, a majority of those seeing a conflict sided with the modernizers.”
    As I said, I’d have to see the questions asked, the demographics of the respondents. Just from what I’ve seen, I consider the data without validity and without reliability.

  27. m – no, I’m not saying that democracy is destiny. Absolutely not. I’m saying that IF you have a population in the multimillions and IF you have an industrial economy, THEN…your political system must be democratic. It is not a choice. It is a necessity. The economic, political and legal systems are all entwined and must work as a cohesive whole.
    What this means is that, in all societies, the political system must empower the sector of the population that is most productive. In the case of an industrial economy, that sector is a middle class. A middle class is that set of the population who are engaged in small to medium private businesses. This class, in an industrial economy, ought to comprise the majority of citizens.
    The political system that empowers this class is ‘democracy’. Why? Because it operates as an elected set of representatives, constrained in their decision making powers by a constitution, limited terms and the rule of law. This keeps the govt firmly in the control of the middle class.
    It isn’t simpy an issue of removing Mubarak; it’s removing the political system that he runs. He runs a ‘two-class system’. There’s the elite set, he and his cronies, whom he appoints. They have total authority. Then, there’s the rest of the population.. who have no power. There is no middle class.
    To make reforms, you have to enable the devt of a strong middle class, people who set up and run small to medium private businesses. Not who are just the employees of a massive state run industry or govt employees. And you have to politically empower them – with democracy. Mubarak and his dictatorship rejects a middle class and he certainly won’t give up power to them.
    Right now, you have Mubarak trying to retain power by having his thugs go out into the streets and create violent scenes. The anti-Mubarak demonstrators were carefully non-violent. Mubarak is trying to foment violence so he can declare martial law.
    And Obama is greatly harming the situation, with his narcissistic insistence that he is somehow behind Mubarak’s statement that he’ll step down..This removes the sense of power from the Egyptian people; it’s ‘The Americans’ telling us what to do again.
    And – Obama isn’t insisting that Mubarak stop the violence. Obama is, frankly, setting up a disastrous situation.
    As for the MB taking over, I disagree, for all the points I’ve already pointed out in other posts – and see El-Erian’s comments above as well.

  28. syncrodox – actually, the terms ‘validity’ and ‘reliability’ when used in data analysis are both used and mean different things.
    Reliability means ‘the extent to which, in repeated measures, an indicator will yield similar readings’. That is, if you ask a question about one topic in a number of ways, you’ll get answers that are correlated and similar. That’s what bothered me about the PEW poll; it asked several questions about the same issue and came up with different percentages.
    Validity means ‘the extent that a measure reflects the concept’. That is, what you want to find out and the answers have to be directly linked. So, if you want to measure the respect an individual has in a community, and your questions deal with their income or their age…well, your analysis lacks validity. After all, is income or age a direct indicator of the respect other people have for them?

  31. “El-Erian, 52, said. “We are seeing people demanding change.” He noted that Egypt is unlikely to follow the same path as Iran toward a theocracy.”
    ~ET
    Mohamed (the Aryan)el-Erian says that Egyptians are unlikely to follow the path of Iran(Land of the Aryans)
    Well that’s good enough for me, since there is absolutely no chance that he has any connection to the Muslim Brotherhood.
    Just wondering, though, does anyone know if Mohamed Al-Arian is related to Essam Al-Arian the national spokesman for the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood?
    “I think he[Obama] ought to tell Mubarak to leave. Now. And, assist or have a coalition of nations, assist in setting up a limited term transitional govt to change the constitution and arrange early elections.”
    ~ET
    I think that Arabs in the Middle East are fed up with western and particularly American interference.
    However there are only 3 big players in the region.
    (America, Russia, Iran)
    Just which countries, ET, do you think Egyptians and other Middle Easterners will allow to come in and dictate to them?
    And yes I said “dictate” because they are going to be armed guarantors of the new government, but just who is going to write their constitution and who has the right to ask these foreign powers, whoever they may be, to enter into Egypt?
    Do you think the Egyptian Army(10th largest in the world) is going to invite foreign powers in?
    How do you think that would play in an honour culture like they have in Egypt and most Middle Eastern countries?

  32. The political system that empowers this class is ‘democracy’. Why? Because it operates as an elected set of representatives, constrained in their decision making powers by a constitution, limited terms and the rule of law. This keeps the govt firmly in the control of the middle class. Posted by: ET at February 2, 2011 11:49 PM
    ET, what really keeps and makes a democracy work is the equality of men as a God-given right. This is what most atheists don’t like and don’t get. The respect of life given by God is the basis and strength of every successful democracy, at its core. That is why the United States has been so successful for over 200 years. We see it unraveling because of the loss of the authority of the Word of God in its society, brought about by the secular humanists, which you belong. You are living in the benefits of a secure society because of the great respect of human life which is brought about by these beliefs.
    That being said, the tragedy in Egypt (and Tunisia) which we see unfolding will only get worse as there is a vacuum which will be filled. The prize will go to the strongest and the most willing to fight to gain the power and control. With a very large Muslim population in Egypt, my money is on the MB, as they have the blessing of many of the poor, as they are becoming more hungry and desperate for leadership with every passing hour. The Imams in the country have far more control than the politicians and they will seize this opportunity and pounce on the weak, promising them the world, just for the price of their soul and some food and security.
    You are smart in many areas of human behavior, but you do not understand the spiritual side of this conflict. As you are unwilling to believe in God, this part of the equation is blurry to you, as you do not see the unseen battles and what this fight is really all about.
    But I feel my words will be wasted, so enough for now.

  33. oz – because two people have the same last name does not mean that they are related and, as well, that they even share beliefs. Try insisting that all people whose last name is Johnson or Smith or Reagan or McDonnell…are all related and all think in similar fashion.
    I suggest you google Mohamed El-Erian and PIMCO. Read what he says. I’m sure you aren’t one of those who will say, ‘oh, all arabs are alike and even though they say something different, they are all alike…’.
    And I’m not suggesting that any foreign nation dictate to Egypt. Nor bring in their military. The Egyptian military is well able to look after things. And the Egyptian people are well able to rewrite their constitution and remove any articles that enable dictators.
    My point is that Obama, rather than supporting Mubarak’s leaving in the fall, which he did publicly the other day, ought to speak out about the need for change, now. And privately, tell him to leave now.

  34. glacierman – I don’t need to accept that the equality of men exists only by virtue of it being a ‘god-given right’. I consider that the equality of men exists as a natural right, and I come to this conclusion by virtue of reason.
    Do you consider that I can’t believe that all men are equal because I don’t link it to god? That would be quite the fundamentalist viewpoint.
    Are you seriously suggesting that my being an atheist is a cause of the weakening of the US? And that only if one believes in god, will a nation be strong? Again, sounds rather fundamentalist…and the key fundamentalists who ought to worry us, are the Islamists. They also insist that one must believe in god and reject individual reason.
    syncrodox – the two terms, validity and reliability, aren’t academic fluff. They have two different meanings and are quite important in ensuring that surveys don’t come up with false analyses. W. Jackson’s ‘Research Methods’ is a great book on that.

  35. ET there is no logical reason for an atheist to believe in the ‘equality of man’. All the empirical evidence points to the inequality of man. What’s more there is no need for the concept of the ‘equality of man’ in a purely atheistic world view. If you take the time to observe social animals in their native settings there is great inequality displayed. Now I know that you as an atheist are free to borrow concepts for theism and claim them as your own when you do so you are being extremely disingenuous.

Proudly powered by WordPress & Skyrocket Themes

MENU

Navigation